Heading into this weekend's three-game series against the Braves in Atlanta, the Mets are in the driver's seat. If they sweep, they clinch the division; if they take two out of three, their magic number would be one; and even if the Braves take two out of three, the Mets, by virtue of a tie-breaker, could still win the division if they sweep the Nationals next week. The only possible way the Mets would lose control of their own destiny is if they themselves got swept. In that event, they would have to sweep the Nats and hope the Marlins do the same to the Braves. Not very likely.
We've been here before. Only a week earlier, the Mets were up two and a half games over the Braves after a 9-2 shellacking of the Oakland A's. All they had to do was sweep that series and take both games against the Marlins and they could've gone into this series needing to win only one game to clinch the division. Then again, if the Mets had swept the Cubs two weeks ago, instead of getting swept, this race would be over by now and Buck Showalter would be setting up his starting rotation for the upcoming NLDS.
But that's water under the bridge. What's done is done. Besides, the Braves have had their own share of missed opportunities in this pennant race. Before they dropped Wednesday night's game to the Nats, they split a four-game series against the struggling Phillies, and a week before that, they lost two out of three to the Giants. Whichever team winds up losing this division will have plenty of time for recriminations during the offseason should it prove costly in the playoffs.
Right now, though, the Mets need to put all that behind them and focus on the series at hand. They have their top three starters going for them. Jacob deGrom has struggled over his last three starts, giving up eleven earned runs in fifteen innings, but dominated the Braves earlier in the season; Max Scherzer has allowed only four hits and one earned run in his last twelve innings; and Chris Bassitt has been the team's most reliable starter all season long. There will be no excuses if the Mets let this opportunity slip through their fingers.
The good news for the Metropolitans is that their offense has come alive of late. Since the Cubs swept them, they've scored four or more runs in eleven of their last twelve games. The other good news is that Edwin Diaz has been lights out all season. If the Mets have a lead going into the ninth inning, they can count on him to seal the deal.
The problem, however, is getting to Diaz. The rest of the relievers, save for Adam Ottavino, have been inconsistent at best. Showalter has done his best trying to navigate through the minefield GM Billy Eppler laid for him. While the Braves fortified their bullpen at the trade deadline, Eppler picked up retread Mychal Givens from the Cubs, who has been a big disappointment. Neither of the starters Showalter has used in middle relief have proven reliable. If deGrom, Scherzer or Bassitt can't go at least six innings, the Mets will be in trouble.
Why is it so important for the Mets to win the division? After all, as the top wildcard, they'd host all three games at CitiField. And based on how the other two wildcard teams are playing, the Mets would be the clear favorites to prevail.
True enough, but winning the division would give them an extra five days off. And that could be critical for Starling Marte. The all-star right fielder suffered a fractured finger on his right hand in a game against the Pirates on September 6 and has been out of the lineup ever since. His absence has forced Showalter to play Tyler Naquin in right. Naquin has been another of Eppler's disappointing trade deadline acquisitions. It's possible Marte might be ready to go by the divisional round. I can't see this team going to the World Series without him.
So, it's come down to this: two of the best teams in baseball battling it out for the National League East division title. It doesn't get any better than that.
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