I went seven for eight, the only miss being the Minnesota Wild. While I thought that series would go the distance, I expected the Wild to emerge on top. I also didn't think the Dallas Stars would extend the Calgary Flames out to seven games before finally succumbing in overtime. Either Stars goalie Jake Oettinger is much better than his stats indicate, or the Flames aren't quite as good as the experts thought.
One thing that stood out was how many game sevens there were: five in all. In fact, the only series that wasn't remotely competitive was the one between the Colorado Avalanche and Nashville Predators. The Avs dispatched the Preds in four straight. That may not necessarily help them against their next opponent as they've been idle since May 9, but we'll see.
Like the last round, I will start with the matchup involving my Rangers and will continue to do so as long as they are in the playoffs. Let's hope both they and I stay hot.
Eastern Conference:
Carolina vs. New York: Both these teams took the full seven games to defeat their first round opponents. What was striking was how the Hurricanes did it. They went 4-0 at home and 0-3 on the road against the Boston Bruins. It's unusual to see such results given how tight this conference was during the regular season. Even more unusual was the margin of victory in each of the games. With the exception of game seven, there wasn't a single game in the series that wasn't decided by two goals or more. The Canes won their contests 5-1, 5-2, 5-1 and 3-2; while the Bruins won theirs 4-2, 5-2 and 5-2. By contrast, the Rangers series against the Pittsburgh Penguins was considerably closer. Only one rout, two overtime decisions and four empty net goals in three games, padding what would've been one-goal margin of victories. Bottom line: the Rangers / Pens series was far more exciting to watch.
So how do these teams measure up against each other? I won't soft soap it: the Hurricanes, despite being extended by the Bruins, are the worst possible matchup for the Rangers. It isn't just that they went 1-3 against them in the regular season, with the lone win owed entirely to Alexandar Georgiev having the best game of his life in goal. It's that their style of play has historically given them fits for years. Against the Pens they at least had some room to create in the offensive zone; the Canes smothering defense will take away even that.
The one advantage the Blueshirts have - and it's massive - is in goal. Everyone who opted to vote for Auston Matthews over Igor Shesterkin for the Hart trophy must feel pretty stupid right about now, given that Matthews is home and Igor is still playing hockey. Without Shesterkin between the pipes, the Pens, not the Rangers, would be opening up Wednesday night in Raleigh.
Mika Zibanejad had the best two games of his Rangers career in games six and seven. He will have to replicate that over a full seven games against an opponent that is both deep and talented. The Canes employ the same type of stick-in-the-lane defense that the Islanders are notorious for, only they do it better. There's only one way to beat it - assuming it can be beat - and that is by driving to the net and getting as many shots on goal as possible. The Bruins accomplished that three times, but failed in their fourth attempt. This incessant need to pass up a good shot to get a better one almost cost them against the Pens; it has stop now. When the Rangers have a scoring opportunity they must capitalize on it. And when the Canes have the puck, the Rangers must do a much better job in front of their goal than they did against the Pens. Shesterkin might be able to steal one or two games, but he can't steal four. He will need some help from his teammates.
The heart says Rangers in seven; the head says otherwise. Hurricanes in six.
Florida vs. Tampa Bay: The Lightning beat the Maple Leafs in seven, while the Puddy Tats needed six to dispatch the Capitals. That by itself should be all you need to pick the winner of this series. However, if Brayden Point, injured in game seven of the Leafs series, is unable to play or is hobbled, that changes everything. Assuming he only misses the first two games, it shouldn't matter that much. The Lightning have the experience, the defense and the goaltending to overcome the Panthers' vaunted offense. Bolts in seven.
Western Conference:
Colorado vs. St. Louis: The Blues have nine 20 plus goal scorers on their roster. That's called depth and they will need every bit of that depth against an Avalanche team that seems poised to go through the postseason tournament the way crap goes through a goose. The only potential road block might be the play of Blues goalie Jordan Binnington, who went 3-0 against the Wild and has regained the form that helped St. Louis win the Cup in 2019. Avs in seven.
Calgary vs. Edmonton: The Battle of Alberta. These two teams haven't met in the playoffs since 1991, the last season Mark Messier was an Oiler. The Oilers won that series 4-3. Thirty-one years later, the Flames hope to return the favor. They are, at least on paper, the superior team, with the better goaltender, even if Connor McDavid is the best player in the series. Edmonton did something no-one thought they were capable of doing: play a defensive system in beating the Kings; and Calgary surprised a lot of people by barely beating a team that had no business hanging around as long as it did. Oilers in seven.
As with all my picks, don't go bettin' the ranch on them.
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