NHL Playoff Preview (Third Round)

So now it's down to four. The conference finals are upon us, and for the first time in years, we will have two incredible series to watch. No "systems" designed to slow down the game or thwart the other team's advantage. All four of these teams rely on their elite-level talent to propel them to victory. Like the NBA does every spring, the NHL will have the opportunity to showcase to millions of casual hockey fans just how great this sport can be when the stars take charge.

I went three for four in the last round; with Carolina the only team that didn't cover. Like I wrote earlier, next time I'll trust my heart. And while I usually resist the urge to look ahead, spoiler alert, the prohibitive favorite to capture the Stanley Cup will likely come from the East.

Without further ado,

Eastern Conference:

New York vs. Tampa Bay: What a matchup. The youngest team in the playoffs against the two-time Stanley Cup champions. The good news is that the Rangers will have home ice in this series. The bad news is that the one huge advantage they've had in these playoffs - goaltending - will be nullified. As brilliant as Igor Shesterkin has been, Andrei Vasilevskiy is in another world. Consider he held the Florida Panthers - the NHL's number one offense - to a measly three goals in four games. His save percentage was an astounding .981 in that series.

Unlike the Hurricanes, the Lightning have an exceptional power play, even without Brayden Point. The Rangers are going to have to stay out of the penalty box or they will get lit up. Another piece of good news is that forwards like Artemi Panarin should finally have the space to create offense that the Canes took away. Mika Zibanejad, Chris Kreider and Adam Fox will go toe to toe with Stephen Stamkos, Nikita Kucherov and Victor Hedman.

Both teams' GMs did exceptionally well adding valuable pieces at the trade deadline. Julien BriseBois has the inside track to be executive of the year. It's clear Chris Drury is attempting to copy the Lightning model. He brought in Barclay Goodrow, Ryan Reaves and Sammy Blais during the offseason to toughen up this roster and it has paid dividends.

The experts are all picking Tampa, and I totally get it. This Lightning team is the best the NHL has seen since those legendary New York Islanders teams of the 1980s. Sans Ondrej Palat, this core will be together for at least one more year. It is not out of the realm of possibility that they could win four cups in a row. 

And yet, even with all that, the Rangers still represent a serious threat to their reign. If they can jump out to an early series lead, they do have the depth to push the Bolts to the very edge. Sooner or later all those playoff games have got to take their toll. Rangers in seven.

Western Conference:

Colorado vs. Edmonton: I'm not much of a gambler but I'm gonna go out on a limb here and predict that betting the over will pay handsomely in this series. Forget about Auston Matthews, Conor McDavid and Nathan MacKinnon are the two best players in the NHL, and if you enjoy watching elite hockey players put on a show, you will be in for a treat with these two. Think Wayne Gretzky and Mark Messier. Yes, they're that good. The goaltenders will have their work cut out for them.

The Avalanche have the advantage by virtue of having home ice. Also Cale Makar will be the best defenseman in this series, not that there will be much defense on display. This could be turn into a track meet fast. Just look at what the Oilers did to Vezina trophy finalist Jacob Markstrom in the last round. I actually felt sorry for him.

The smart money's on Colorado, but my gut tells me the Oilers have something going for them. The way McDavid is lighting up the score sheet, there might be nothing that can stop him. And I wasn't exactly thrilled at the way the Avs blew that three goal lead against the St. Louis Blues at home. Oilers in six.

Tropical Depression

Note to self: Next time trust your heart.

The New York Rangers, who entered last night's contest against the Carolina Hurricanes in Raleigh 4-0 in elimination games, are now 5-0. Next stop, Tampa.

The most resilient team in the NHL not only defeated what on paper was their toughest opponent, they did it going away. The 6-2 rout represented their biggest margin of victory in a road game seven since they shut out the Washington Capitals 5-0 in 2013.

Playing with the lead proved to be the difference, that and a potent power play. With the exception of game one, the team that scored first in this series won each game. And just like they had done in games four and six, the Hurricanes took stupid, undisciplined penalties that proved costly. 

Adam Fox and Chris Kreider - who had been held to only one goal thru six games - scored with the man advantage; Igor Shesterkin continued to make everyone who voted for Auston Matthews for the Hart trophy look foolish by stopping all 16 shots that the Canes threw at him in the first period; and the Blueshirts took a 2-0 lead into the first intermission.

Ryan Strome padded the lead in the second period before Kreider - second of the night - and Filip Chytil broke it open in the third. Andrew Copp added an empty netter for good measure. You know the hockey gods are smiling on this team when Strome scores a goal.

The Rangers bent but didn't break. According to Clear Sight Analytics, while Carolina had more scoring chances in the game, most of them were mid and low quality. For once, it was the team from New York that had the better opportunities, and they cashed in.

But lest you think the outcome was in the bag, there were a couple of close calls that had they gone the other way might've made this "laugher" a barn burner. The first occurred in the first period seconds after Kreider's power play goal put the Rangers ahead 2-0. Teuvo Teravainen fired a one timer that Shesterkin barely got his shake blade on. The second occurred late in the second period with the Rangers still clinging to that 2-0 lead. Copp broke up a potential goal by Andrei Svechnikov, and seconds later Strome buried the puck short side.

But apart from those, admittedly, scary moments, the Rangers were very disciplined in their own end. They capitalized on their scoring chances, they blocked shots - 25 in all - and when they made the odd mistake or two, Shesterkin was there to make the save. You couldn't have choreographed this game any better if you tried. 

The stars came through last night: Mika Zibanaejad, Fox, Kreider, Jacob Trouba, who's devastating check on Seth Jarvis inadvertently led to the second power play goal when Jarvis couldn't make it back to the bench and the Canes were called for having too many men on the ice. Even Artemi Panarin had an assist.

I thought there was a chance they could pull out a squeaker late, but even I couldn't have foreseen this. Credit Gerard Gallant, who kept this team together after they were humiliated by the Pittsburgh Penguins twice in games three and four in the first round. If this guy doesn't win the Jack Adams award, there's no justice. And credit Chris Drury, whose trade deadline acquisitions have paid off big time in these playoffs.

The Rangers are in the Eastern Conference finals. Seriously, if you had this team half way to a Stanley Cup championship before the start of the season, you're a better person than me.

This crazy ride continues. Where it will end, no one knows.

Rangers Have the Opportunity of a Lifetime

The Rangers took care of business Saturday night. After their "tired" performance in game five, in which they managed a paltry 17 shots on goal, they limped out of Raleigh on life support. A loss at the Garden meant their season would be over. So they summoned what resiliency they had left and beat the Carolina Hurricanes 5-2.

Don't be fooled by the score. The Blueshirts got two soft goals in the first period off Antti Raanta, who was lifted after Filip Chytil went top shelf on him early in the second. The Canes outshot the Rangers in every period and had the better scoring chances. If Igor Shesterkin had been playing for Rod Brind'Amour last night, this series would be over and we'd be talking about the 2022-23 season.

And now they hit the road, where they are 1-5, to play a team that is 7-0 at home, for the right to play the two-time Stanley Cup champion Tampa Bay Lightning in the Eastern Conference finals. The Rangers are 4-0 in elimination games, so theoretically a win is possible. But in the three games they've played in Raleigh so far, this resilient team has managed exactly two goals, one off a turnover in game one and the other on a power play in game five. Sadly, the Rangers have given zero evidence that they are capable of mustering the kind of sixty-minute effort it would take to advance and every indication that when the final buzzer sounds Monday night, they and not the Canes will be the ones headed home.

So why am I cautiously optimistic about their chances? Two reasons and they both have to with who's in goal. The fact is Igor Shesterkin doesn't play for Rod Brind'Amour; he plays for Gerard Gallant, which means that any game he suits up for is a game he is capable of winning, er, stealing. Ask Mike Sullivan what he thinks about Shesterkin. The Pittsburgh Penguins threw the kitchen sink at him in the third period of game seven and couldn't beat him. Anybody else in that net and Artemi Panarin doesn't get to score that power play goal in overtime.

As for Antti Raanta, he's starting to show why he's been a backup goaltender his entire career. There was simply no excuse for that performance in the first period. He whiffed on a shot by Tyler Motte and was cleanly beaten five hole by Mika Zibanaejad. Igor would've stopped those shots; in fact, any half-way competent net minder would've stopped them. His body language after getting pulled by Brind'Amour was all you needed to know. I'm telling you he's teetering and if the Rangers are smart, they will make the most of the opportunity the hockey gods have bestowed upon them.

Despite getting thoroughly outplayed and outshot in game five, the Canes only had a one-goal lead with just over seven minutes to go in the third period, and if Adam Fox handles that loose puck at center ice instead of muffing it, who knows what might've happened? 

Now imagine if the Rangers manage to establish even a modest forecheck Monday night. Let's say they get a "soft" goal on Raanta early, the score is tied at two late in the third and Carolina gets called for a penalty. Now imagine a one-timer by Zibanejad with just under two minutes left.

You might be thinking that's quite an active imagination you have there, Peter. To be fair, it is far fetched. But here's the thing: with six minutes to go in the third period of game seven against the Pens, the Rangers were trailing by a goal and looked for all the world like they were done. Then all of a sudden, Andrew Copp wrestled a puck out of the corner and fed Zibanejad for the tying goal. You know the rest.

This entire season, the Rangers have confounded the so-called analytics experts. Their ability to stare death in the face and come away unscathed has paid huge dividends. Of course, it doesn't exactly hurt that they have the presumptive Vezina trophy winner playing for them. Consider that not once in these playoffs have they led in a series. They trailed the Pens 1-0 and 3-1 before coming back; they trailed the Canes 2-0 and 3-2 before coming back. They seem to relish being the underdog; it has served them well.

With all the talk about how the Rangers have had a difficult time playing a full sixty minutes, it's not like the Hurricanes have dominated this series. Games one and two could easily have gone either way; they got outplayed in game four and they were downright sloppy in game six. Yes, they're 7-0 at home in the postseason, but the problem with going to the well that many times is that sooner or later your bucket comes up dry.

Bottom line, yes the Rangers can win game seven, but to do so, they will have to play considerably better than they did in game five. They are going to have to manage the puck well, avoid turnovers at center ice, and get the puck in deep. Shesterkin will keep them in the game as long as he can, just like he has done throughout the playoffs, but the Rangers will have to meet him half way.

They have the talent, now they have to find the will.

So Much for a Storm Surge

Don't look now, but the Carolina Hurricanes, the team the so-called experts, myself included, thought was the team to beat in the Eastern conference, are tied with the New York Rangers, the team that the analytics community has been disparaging for much of this season.

Not only are these two teams tied with each other, but after last night's game - a 4-1 Rangers win - the momentum is most decidedly NOT with the team based in Raleigh. In fact, a strong argument can be made that were it not for a game-tying goal late in the third period of game one by Sebastian Aho, the Blueshirts would be on the verge of winning this series Thursday night instead of merely looking to take a 3-2 lead.

Consider the following: In four games, the Canes have managed to score a paltry five goals against Igor Shesterkin; they are 0 for 9 on the power play; and their top two defensemen - Tony DeAngelo and Jaccob Slavin, who racked up eight points a piece against the Boston Bruins in round one - have been held off the score sheet. DeAngelo, in particular, has had a miserable series and seems more intent on picking a fight with Ryan Reaves than helping his team win.

Meanwhile, the Rangers, apart from that third period goal in game one, a short-hander by Brendan Smith in game two and a few pushes by Carolina in games three and four, have been the better team so far in this series. They are out-hustling the Canes; they are getting scoring from all four forward lines; and with the power play now starting to click and Igor living up to his billing, a trip to the conference finals is looking less and less like a pipe dream and more and more like a real possibility.

Ironic, isn't it? Of the four remaining series, this is the only one that's been remotely competitive. The Tampa Bay Lightning disposed of the Florida Panthers - AKA, the Puddy Tats - in four straight; the Edmonton Oilers are currently leading the Calgary Flames 3-1; and barring divine intervention, the Colorado Avalanche will put the St. Louis Blues out of their misery tonight. 

I'm usually not one to eat crow, but even I couldn't have expected this. After all, it's not like the Rangers played like gang busters against the Pittsburgh Penguins. They twice had to overcome two-goal deficits while facing elimination, not once, not twice, but three times. Talk about sudden death. Only an overtime power play goal by Artemi Panarin in game seven prevented what would've been a disappointing first round exit. Even the most die-hard fan would have to admit that beating the Hurricanes was an uphill battle.

Look, they still have to win at least one game in Carolina, and that won't be an easy task. The Hurricanes are 6-0 at home; I fully expect them to step up their game Thursday night. But the Rangers team that takes the ice for game five will have a lot more confidence going for it than the one that showed up in games one and two. They know they can beat this team and, what's more, the Hurricanes know it too. Knowledge is a beautiful thing, if you do something with it.

The Rangers seem to relish the role of underdog in these playoffs; it has served them well. They are two wins away from getting a crack at the two-time Stanley Cup champs. Just imagine what a series between Igor Shesterkin and Andrei Vasilevskiy would look like.

I get goosebumps just thinking about it.

Rangers Get Just Enough

Gerard Gallant had seen enough. Through the first two games of this best of seven series with the Carolina Hurricanes, his team had managed just one goal. At the rate things were going, the Rangers were looking at a four-game sweep. Clearly something had to be done. So he shook up his top three lines. The new lines were as follows: Mika Zibanejad centering Chris Kreider and Filip Chytil; Ryan Strome centering Artemi Panarin and Kaapo Kakko; and Andrew Copp centering Alexis Lafreniere and Frank Vatrano.

An offensive onslaught it wasn't. But then in a series where goals have been as rare as an honest salesman in a used-car lot, anything was better than nothing. The Rangers skated with authority, took more chances in the offensive zone and, yes, surrendered more than their fair share of chances the other way. Thru two periods, the Hurricanes outshot the Blueshirts 35-23. But Igor Shesterkin stood tall in net, stopping all but one, while Zibanejad scored a power play goal in the first and Kreider padded the lead early in the second to give New York its first two goal lead of the series. An empty netter by Tyler Motte late in the third sealed the deal.

We now have a series; a series that will test the Rangers mettle in ways they could only imagine. Before the series began, I wrote that the Hurricanes were the worst possible matchup for this team. Well they played what was arguably their best game of the playoffs and they still needed everyone of Shesterkin's 43 saves to preserve the win. Things will only get tougher from here on out, you can count on that.

This is the assignment the Rangers have drawn; a seemingly impossible assignment, but one they seem more than eager to take on. And if they somehow manage to tie this series on Tuesday, they will at the very least succeed in forcing the Canes to defend their home ice advantage. Of course, should they lose, they face the dire prospect of going home for the season on Thursday.

To have any chance at advancing to the conference finals, the Rangers MUST win the special teams battle. Apart from Shesterkin, it's the one area in which they enjoy an advantage. Throughout the regular season, they posted the fourth best power play in the NHL, while the Hurricanes were only the thirteenth best. So far, Carolina has been a woeful 0 for 7 in this series and 5 for 43 overall in the postseason. If the Rangers can covert with the extra man, they will have a fighting chance.

And if the Hurricanes try and goad the Rangers into physical altercations, as both Max Domi and Tony DeAngelo did at the end of game three, that will only be playing into the Rangers hands. The Canes maybe the faster team in this series, but they are clearly not the bigger one. I doubt Rod Brind'Amour would be dumb enough to allow that, but in the event he does or can't stop it, expect Gerard Gallant to say, "Thank you."

This season has been full of surprises. If the Rangers can pull off a few more, who knows where they might end up?

Playing Not To Lose Is No Way To Win

Well at least Igor Shesterkin's save percentage is looking good. In the first two games of the Rangers' best of seven series against the Carolina Hurricanes, the presumptive Vezina trophy winner has a .923 and a .952 save percentage respectively.

That was pretty much it for the good news. In six periods of hockey, the Rangers have managed to score exactly one goal and generate a total of eight high-percentage scoring chances. To put that in perspective, in the first two games of the Pittsburgh Penguins series, the Rangers scored eight goals and generated twenty-two high-percentage scoring chances. 

So what's responsible for the power outage? Certainly the opponent has had something to do with it. Let's face it, despite the marque talent on their roster, the Pens aren't exactly the defensive stalwarts the Canes are. Head coach Rod Brind'Amour has his team firing on all cylinders. As I wrote in an earlier piece, "they are a better, younger version of last year's Islanders."

But there might be another reason for why the Rangers offense has been so anemic in this series, and it may have something to do with the results of their four regular season meetings. If you recall, the Blueshirts went 1-3 against Carolina; their lone win was a 2-0 shutout, courtesy of Alexandar Georgiev stopping 44 shots. But it was their first meeting back in January in which the Hurricanes ran circles around them on their way to a 6-3 rout that might be screwing with their heads at this moment. It is quite possible that the coaching staff and players have concluded that the best chance they have of winning this series, or at least avoiding getting embarrassed, is to play risk free hockey, capitalize on the rare mistake, and let Igor do his thing.

For 57 and a half minutes in game one, that strategy looked as if it might work. Alexis Lafreniere intercepted a Tony DeAngelo errant pass, skated into the offensive zone and fed Filip Chytil for the one timer. 1-0 Rangers after one. And it stayed that way until the third when Sebastian Aho picked up his own rebound and put it past Shesterkin at 17:37 to tie the game. We all know what happened in OT, so let's not rehash that.

The bottom line is that the Rangers find themselves in an 0-2 hole because they've talked themselves into believing that if they open things up against a team as quick as the Hurricanes, they'll be sliced to ribbons. That might be the case, but putting a leash on players like Mika Zibanejad, Adam Fox, Chris Kreider and Artemi Panarin is the equivalent of hoisting up a white flag. You get no brownie points for losing 2-1 and 2-0. Playing not to lose virtually guarantees you will. Ask any football coach what employing the prevent defense did for his team. The annals of sports history are replete with examples of over cautious teams that thought they could run out the clock on their opponents. Few, if any, succeeded.

When the Rangers take the ice Sunday afternoon for game three of this series, they must do everything within their power to generate some offense. If that means that head coach Gerard Gallant has to mix up his lines to do so, then do it. For a team with this much firepower to be held to only one goal after two games is unacceptable. That the Kid line is the only line generating anything resembling a forecheck in this seres is something that should raise eyebrows within the dressing room.

Panarin spoke of not wanting to do "some stupid shit" with the puck, but there is a huge difference between being reckless with the puck and being timid. And right now, Panarin and his line mates look timid. Worse, they look indecisive. That was painfully obvious during a four-minute power play late in the second period, when Fox, pinching to try and keep the puck in the offensive zone, got caught on an odd-man rush that resulted in a short-handed goal by, of all people, Brendan Smith: the only Ranger who stood up to Tom Wilson last year. Irony abounds.

If the Rangers have any hope of getting back into this series, Panarin must be the player he was during the regular season when he finished fourth in the NHL in assists. When he's on his game, he's one of the best playmakers in the league. Is there a risk that one of those cross-ice passes could wind up in the back of their own net? Of course there is. But the Rangers aren't paying him $11 million a year to play like Tyler Motte or Barclay Goodrow, and asking him to do so now, with the season on the line, makes absolutely no sense.

If this is some sort of master plan by Gallant and company to lull the Hurricanes into a false sense of security, it isn't working. Brind'Amour could care less whether his team wins 2-1 or 5-4. A win is a win. To borrow a baseball parlance, they all look like line drives in the box score.

Look, the Rangers are who they are. It's the reason they won 52 games during the regular season and it's also the reason they were able to beat the Penguins in the first round. Should they go down swinging against an admittedly superior Hurricanes team, they can at least hold their heads up high knowing they gave it their best shot. But if they go out with a whimper, the way they've done so far in these first two games, it could have long-lasting repercussions for the core of this team. Chris Drury is trying to mold the Rangers into the image of the Tampa Bay Lightning. But before the Lightning could learn how to win, they had to first learn how to lose. Before they stopped doing "some stupid shit" with the puck they first had to do "some stupid shit" with the puck.

Translation, Gallant has to let his players off the leash. Will it work? Probably not. Sadly, the Hurricanes are just too good. But it will give the fans something to cheer for these next two games at the Garden. Who knows, if they can get the power play going, maybe they can extend the series to six games. Absent that, we're looking at a four-game sweep with the boo birds out in full force Tuesday evening.

Before we got married, my wife had this plaque that hung on her bedroom wall that read, "Ships are safe in the harbor, but ships were never meant to stay in the harbor."

Words to live - or die - by.

NHL Playoff Preview (Second Round)

With round one now complete, the second round starts Tuesday with four series: two in each conference. Before we get to them, though, let's review what happened in the last round.

I went seven for eight, the only miss being the Minnesota Wild. While I thought that series would go the distance, I expected the Wild to emerge on top. I also didn't think the Dallas Stars would extend the Calgary Flames out to seven games before finally succumbing in overtime. Either Stars goalie Jake Oettinger is much better than his stats indicate, or the Flames aren't quite as good as the experts thought.

One thing that stood out was how many game sevens there were: five in all. In fact, the only series that wasn't remotely competitive was the one between the Colorado Avalanche and Nashville Predators. The Avs dispatched the Preds in four straight. That may not necessarily help them against their next opponent as they've been idle since May 9, but we'll see.

Like the last round, I will start with the matchup involving my Rangers and will continue to do so as long as they are in the playoffs. Let's hope both they and I stay hot.

Eastern Conference:

Carolina vs. New York: Both these teams took the full seven games to defeat their first round opponents. What was striking was how the Hurricanes did it. They went 4-0 at home and 0-3 on the road against the Boston Bruins. It's unusual to see such results given how tight this conference was during the regular season. Even more unusual was the margin of victory in each of the games. With the exception of game seven, there wasn't a single game in the series that wasn't decided by two goals or more. The Canes won their contests 5-1, 5-2, 5-1 and 3-2; while the Bruins won theirs 4-2, 5-2 and 5-2. By contrast, the Rangers series against the Pittsburgh Penguins was considerably closer. Only one rout, two overtime decisions and four empty net goals in three games, padding what would've been one-goal margin of victories. Bottom line: the Rangers / Pens series was far more exciting to watch.

So how do these teams measure up against each other? I won't soft soap it: the Hurricanes, despite being extended by the Bruins, are the worst possible matchup for the Rangers. It isn't just that they went 1-3 against them in the regular season, with the lone win owed entirely to Alexandar Georgiev having the best game of his life in goal. It's that their style of play has historically given them fits for years. Against the Pens they at least had some room to create in the offensive zone; the Canes smothering defense will take away even that.

The one advantage the Blueshirts have - and it's massive - is in goal. Everyone who opted to vote for Auston Matthews over Igor Shesterkin for the Hart trophy must feel pretty stupid right about now, given that Matthews is home and Igor is still playing hockey. Without Shesterkin between the pipes, the Pens, not the Rangers, would be opening up Wednesday night in Raleigh.

Mika Zibanejad had the best two games of his Rangers career in games six and seven. He will have to replicate that over a full seven games against an opponent that is both deep and talented. The Canes employ the same type of stick-in-the-lane defense that the Islanders are notorious for, only they do it better. There's only one way to beat it - assuming it can be beat - and that is by driving to the net and getting as many shots on goal as possible. The Bruins accomplished that three times, but failed in their fourth attempt. This incessant need to pass up a good shot to get a better one almost cost them against the Pens; it has stop now. When the Rangers have a scoring opportunity they must capitalize on it. And when the Canes have the puck, the Rangers must do a much better job in front of their goal than they did against the Pens. Shesterkin might be able to steal one or two games, but he can't steal four. He will need some help from his teammates.

The heart says Rangers in seven; the head says otherwise. Hurricanes in six.

Florida vs. Tampa Bay: The Lightning beat the Maple Leafs in seven, while the Puddy Tats needed six to dispatch the Capitals. That by itself should be all you need to pick the winner of this series. However, if Brayden Point, injured in game seven of the Leafs series, is unable to play or is hobbled, that changes everything. Assuming he only misses the first two games, it shouldn't matter that much. The Lightning have the experience, the defense and the goaltending to overcome the Panthers' vaunted offense. Bolts in seven.

Western Conference:

Colorado vs. St. Louis: The Blues have nine 20 plus goal scorers on their roster. That's called depth and they will need every bit of that depth against an Avalanche team that seems poised to go through the postseason tournament the way crap goes through a goose. The only potential road block might be the play of Blues goalie Jordan Binnington, who went 3-0 against the Wild and has regained the form that helped St. Louis win the Cup in 2019. Avs in seven.

Calgary vs. Edmonton: The Battle of Alberta. These two teams haven't met in the playoffs since 1991, the last season Mark Messier was an Oiler. The Oilers won that series 4-3. Thirty-one years later, the Flames hope to return the favor. They are, at least on paper, the superior team, with the better goaltender, even if Connor McDavid is the best player in the series. Edmonton did something no-one thought they were capable of doing: play a defensive system in beating the Kings; and Calgary surprised a lot of people by barely beating a team that had no business hanging around as long as it did. Oilers in seven.

As with all my picks, don't go bettin' the ranch on them.

7th Heaven

For the first time since 2017, the New York Rangers won a playoff series. And for the third time in eight years, they overcame a 3-1 series deficit to do it. A power play goal at 4:46 of overtime by Artemi Panarin, who despite his six points looked lost in this series, sealed the deal.

Make no mistake about it, the Pittsburgh Penguins were the better team throughout a good chunk of this series. After getting a split at the Garden in the first two games, they successfully chased Vezina trophy finalist Igor Shesterkin in games three and four, and led by two goals in games five and six and one goal twice in game seven before the Rangers mounted their comebacks. 

The low point was a 7-2 rout in game four, in which their coach Gerard Gallant accused them of playing "soft." The Rangers would never lose another game. The most resilient team in the NHL this season became the first team to post three consecutive come from behind wins while facing elimination in the same series.

But while game seven may have seemed like a given, it was anything but. The Rangers trailed 3-2 late in the third, and unlike the previous two games, there was no indication that they had anything left in their tank to mount another comeback. In fact, had it not been for Shesterkin standing on his head, the Pens would now be on their way to Carolina to face the Hurricanes.

Gallant did everything he could to jumpstart his team, going so far as to shake up his top two lines. He put Andrew Copp, Alexis Lafreniere and Mika Zibanaejad together and the combination finally came through. With less than five minutes remaining in their season, Copp out muscled a Penguins defender along the boards and fed Zibanejad for the game-tying goal. The Pens accused Lafreniere of "intentionally" pulling off defenseman Marcus Pettersson's helmet prior to the goal, but like the accusation that Jacob Trouba deliberately injured Sidney Crosby, it was just a lame excuse to try and justify yet another postseason failure. The fact is that since 2019, Pittsburgh has failed to advance past the first round. If coach Mike Sullivan is looking for a scapegoat, he and his team should look in the mirror.

So how did the Rangers pull off this most improbable comeback? 

Igor Shesterkin settled down after his less than inspiring performance in games three and four. Indeed, the team MVP saved 217 of 232 shots for a .935 save percentage in games one, two, five, six and seven. And since the game one triple OT loss, he has not allow a goal after the second period. Penguins fans may have had some fun serenading Shesterkin earlier in the series, but in the end, it was Shesterkin who got the last laugh.

Mika Zibanejad finally woke up. Going into game six, the all-star center had only four points - all assists - yet recorded three goals and seven points in the final two contests. I've watched Zibanejad since his arrival from the Ottawa Senators prior to the 2016-17 season and this was, by far, the best I've seen him play. Any doubts some may have had about the contract extension Chris Drury gave him hopefully have been put to rest. With all the hoopla surrounding Crosby, it was Zibanejad who came through when his team needed him most.

The return of Ryan Lindgren and Tyler Motte. Since Barclay Goodrow and Lindgren both went down in game one, the Rangers have had problems in the own end. While Goodrow's status remains week to week, the return of Lindgren in game five, followed by Motte - who was injured, ironically, against the Pens earlier in the season - in game six, has given this team the lift it so badly needed. Both will be invaluable against the Hurricanes.

Gerard Gallant pushed all the right buttons. In addition to mixing up his lines, the Rangers' coach called a timeout at the beginning of the overtime power play in game seven that gave his number one unit the rest it needed to stay on for the full two minutes. Without that timeout, Panarin likely would not have scored the series clincher and who knows what might've happened. But even before that, his calm and steady demeanor throughout this series allowed his team to stay focused even when they weren't playing well. I never want to hear a peep from anybody again about this man's ability to motivate his players. This team has grown leaps and bounds since David Quinn was sent packing.

So, round one is in the books. Round two begins Wednesday. I will unveil my predictions for all eight of the remaining teams in my next piece. Not to toot my own horn, but I got seven out of eight correct in the last round. Almost as good as Shesterkin.

Rangers Shouldn't Count Their Chickens Just Yet.

Things couldn't have been going any better for the 1991-92 New York Rangers. They had won the President's trophy and defeated the New Jersey Devils 4-3 in the divisional semifinals. Now they were looking to do the same to the defending Stanley Cup champion Pittsburgh Penguins in the divisional finals. 

They were ahead 4-2 midway through the third period of game four and were on the verge of taking a 3-1 stranglehold lead in the series, when at 10:37, Ron Francis, from just outside the blue line, wound up and took a slap shot that flew past Mike Richter to trim the lead to 4-3. The crowd came alive, and a little over a minute later, Troy Loney tied the score. The Pens eventually won the game in overtime and took the series 4-2.

But the most crushing thing about that defeat, apart from the fact that once more the Rangers failed in their quest to capture the allusive Cup, was that the best player in the NHL that season, Mario Lemieux, was injured by a slash from Adam Graves in game two and missed the rest of the series. It's bad enough losing, but to lose to a team whose best player is unable to play, well that really stings. The moral of the story is don't assume anything.

No doubt the Rangers are relieved that Sidney Crosby will not be playing in tonight's game, courtesy of a Jacob Trouba hit that, despite what the Pittsburgh press is saying, was perfectly legal. I've been watching Trouba play for three years now, and let's just say that if Trouba really wanted to hurt Crosby, Crosby would've been carried off on a stretcher. It's time to move on, guys.

But if I'm the Rangers, I wouldn't be making any plans for a game seven at the Garden on Sunday. For starters, while Crosby has lit up the Blueshirts in this series, he is NOT the principle reason why they find themselves on the verge of elimination. Yes, their defense has been putrid, especially in game four, where they humiliated themselves. The two biggest reasons why they are in this predicament is 1) They have been unable to sustain a consistent forecheck against the Penguins, which has hampered their ability to generate offense; and 2) Their Vezina trophy finalist goaltender Igor Shesterkin, since game two, simply hasn't played up to his billing.

Regarding #2, there's no gentle way to put this. Anything other than a stellar performance in game six and it won't much matter who dresses for Pittsburgh. The Rangers season will be over. Come hell or high water, Igor must be Igor.

Regarding #1, this has been the most frustrating aspect of this series to watch. When the Rangers have been able to successfully establish a forecheck, the Penguins have had no answer. Put succinctly, when the Rangers turn on the spigot, Pittsburgh can't seem to turn it off.

Witness the first period in game one, the second period in both games two and three, and that three minute stretch in the second period of game five. Once pinned in their own end, the Pens have been unable to get out of their own zone without giving up successive scoring chances, some of which have wound up in the back of their net. With a few notable exceptions, the Penguins have gotten their goals from either odd-man rushes, deflections or transition plays. In short, Pittsburgh has been the quicker team, but not necessarily the better team in this series.

So how do the Rangers solve this problem? Well, let's be optimistic and assume that Igor regains his form tonight. The first thing that has to happen is the Rangers need to stop those long breakout passes they've been attempting. Pittsburgh's forwards are stepping up and intercepting them before they get to their blue line. This has led to several odd-man rushes that have led to goals. To get around this, the Rangers must attempt shorter passes through the neutral zone and then once across the red line, dump the puck in and chase it.

I know this strategy doesn't sit well with players like Artemi Panarin and Mika Zibanejad, but like it or not, this is the playoffs and adjustments have to be made. The reason the Kid line of Filip Chytil, Kaapo Kakko and Alexis Lafreniere has been so successful is because they've been dumping the puck in and - surprise, surprise - successfully retrieving it. In fact, they've been giving the Pens fits the entire series. It would behoove Panarin and Zibanejad - who has been abysmal this series - to watch and learn. Who cares how you gain the offensive zone so long as you get possession of the puck?

But even if they do alter their style of play, the other thing that has to happen is that once they get a scoring chance they have to capitalize on it. Throughout the entire series, the Rangers have played musical chairs with the puck; passing up good shots to get the proverbial better one. In the first overtime period of game one, Adam Fox had the puck ten feet out from the Pittsburgh goal, and rather than shoot it, decided to pass it to Ryan Strome who, clearly not expecting the pass, flubbed the shot.

While that may be the most egregious example of their overpassing tendencies, it is emblematic of a flaw that has afflicted them throughout the regular season and now threatens their postseason aspirations. It undoubtedly was the reason they were unable to score on three consecutive power play opportunities in game three, when just one conversion might well have gotten them a win. Whether committed by Fox, Panarin or Zibanaejad, this reluctance by the Rangers to take what the defense is giving them is making Louis Domingue's life a lot more bearable than it should be. The third-string goalie has managed to win three playoff games so far and, despite some major flaws in his technique, is in position to win the first postseason series of his career. 

And if the Rangers let that happen, it will haunt them the entire offseason. 

Soft Served

Before I skewer the Rangers, I wanted to say a few words about the dismissal of Barry Trotz. While the news took a lot of people by surprise, if you examine the history of Lou Lamoriello, it really fits a pattern. In his 28 year run as President and GM of the New Jersey Devils, he fired eleven coaches, three of whom won Stanley Cups for him. Stability and loyalty are not part of his vocabulary.

But while Lamoriello certainly has the right to fire anyone he wants, Trotz was not to blame for what happened to the Islanders. The culprit here is Lou himself. As I wrote last month, "there is a staggering dearth of elite-level talent on the roster." Seriously, take away Brock Nelson, Anders Lee and Mathew Barzal and you've got the Arizona Coyotes. If anything, Trotz probably got more out of this bunch than most coaches would've been able to get. Good luck replacing him.

Now onto what happened last night in Pittsburgh.

The good news for the Rangers? They scored the first goal of the game. The bad news for the Rangers? The Penguins scored seven of the next eight.

This was a total embarrassment. Larry Brooks of The New York Post, summed it up best. The Rangers "dishonored themselves with a humiliating effort." This is eerily starting to look like a repeat of the 2016 series against the Penguins: a split in the first two games, followed by three woeful losses in which the Blueshirts were outscored 14-4.

Gerard Gallant said his team was "soft all over the ice," and called the 7-2 loss "a team effort." Somehow that word "effort" seems strangely out of place given what we witnessed on the ice. If anything, it was disheartening to watch athletes who get paid a lot of money phoning it in like this.

How bad was it? Of the five goals the Penguins scored in the second period, four of them came in under a minute: two in a span of 24 seconds at the start of the period, and two in a span of 35 seconds to close out the period. Four goals were deflections that took place without a single Ranger anywhere in sight; two directly from face-offs in the defensive zone that were cleanly won by the Pens. Igor Shesterkin should sue for abandonment.

The Penguins were allowed to skate into the defensive zone virtually unimpeded. Sidney Crosby, who was fairly contained in game three, put on a clinic in game four. When the Rangers did have the puck, which wasn't long, they were unable to establish, much less sustain, a viable forecheck. And for the second consecutive game they lost the special teams battle.

I don't wanna hear anything about playoff inexperience, or about how this team is still one of the youngest in the NHL. Artemi Panarin is 30, as is Chris Kreider; Mika Zibanejad and Ryan Strome are both 28; and Andrew Copp, Frank Vatrano and Jacob Trouba are all 27. By any standard that is hardly young. They, along with Adam Fox (23), might as well have been in the witness protection program for all the good they did last night. Indeed, the only players who put in even a modicum of effort was the kid line of Filip Chytil, Kaapo Kakko and Alexis Lafreniere. It was, by far and away, Gallant's most effective line all night.

I have been a fan of this team since I was ten years old and I have never seen a lay down like this. Not even the four game sweep at the hands of the Devils in '06 comes close. That team at least had an excuse: Jaromir Jagr injured his shoulder in game one and was never the same afterwards. This team, apart from Ryan Lindgren and Barclay Goodrow, is fully healthy. They have no excuse for the way they played last night. Frankly, I was embarrassed by what I saw. Every player in that locker room should be ashamed of himself.

Consider that of the seven series that were 2-1 going into game four, the Florida Panthers, Boston Bruins, Tampa Bay Lightning, St Louis Blues, Calgary Flames and Los Angeles Kings all took care of business and evened things up. Only the Rangers failed to win and are now on the verge of getting out their golf clubs.

The only question that remains to be answered is whether this Rangers team can summon enough pride to stave off elimination and extend the series to a game six back in Pittsburgh, or whether this improbable season will come to ignominious end. One thing is for certain: if they play like they did last night, they will be mercilessly booed off the ice.

Relax, Rangers Fans, Things Aren't As Bleak As They Appear.

Want to hear something wild? Saturday night's game in Pittsburgh was the best the Rangers have played so far in these playoffs. I know the final score didn't reflect it, but the Blueshirts outchanced the Penguins in high-risk scoring opportunities 12-8; they owned the puck in the second period; and they held Sidney Crosby to a single shot on goal through two periods. Equally impressive is the way they shut down Evgeni Malkin for the second consecutive game. Had it not been for some uncharacteristic shoddy net minding by likely Vezina trophy winner Igor Shesterkin, the Rangers would be ahead in this series 2-1, instead of trailing 2-1.

Want to hear something even wilder? Had it not been for a bad call that disallowed what should've been a game-winning goal by Filip Chytil with three minutes to go in the third period of game one, the Rangers would be on the verge of a four-game sweep in this series. And, no, I'm not letting that one go. It was an atrocious call.

Unfortunately, in the real world, the Rangers' backs are against the wall. Game four is a must win. They don't dare return home trailing 3-1. Yes, they came back from a 3-1 deficit against the Pens in 2014, but that was a different Rangers team, one with far more playoff experience than this one. Having to win three in a row will be a tall order for this group. Come hell or high water, they gotta win Monday.

So how do they do that? Well, for starters, Igor has to, and will, play better. Even the best are entitled to a mulligan once and a while. Better to have it in game three than a potential game seven. But there's more to it than just that. On the second Penguins power play goal, the Rangers were lapse in their coverage. Yes, they got a lively bounce off the boards. So what? You still gotta clear the puck when that happens. You can't leave your goalie naked like that. It's inexcusable.

Another thing that's inexcusable is failing to convert on three consecutive power plays. After bitching and moaning all series about the lack of calls from the refs, they finally got what they wanted and rather than make the Penguins pay, they handed the game right back to them. If the Rangers have any hope of winning this series, that cannot happen again. They had the fourth best power play in the NHL this season for a reason. They have to capitalize on it.

Finally, despite an overall advantage in high-risk scoring chances, the Rangers can't afford to get into a shooting match with the Penguins. Yes, they have their fare share of elite players like Zibanejad, Kreider and Panarin, and, yes, they're getting better contributions from depth players like Copp, Vatrano and the Kid line, which had a damn good game Saturday, but in a shootout, the advantage would most definitely go to the Pens. The key to the Rangers success this season has been their defense: the second stingiest in the league. Opening things up would literally be playing right into Pittsburg's hands. Gerard Gallant needs to get them back on track, and fast.

And speaking of Gallant, let's knock it off with all the "he's getting out-coached in this series" crap. Right, the guy who's up for a possible Jack Adams award is getting out-coached by the guy who hasn't gotten his team past the first round since 2018. This is what happens when people with too much time on their hands forget to take their Adderall.

Look, it's not the end of the world. The Rangers aren't the only team in this tournament to fall behind 2-1. The Calgary Flames, Florida Panthers, St. Louis Blues, Boston Bruins and Tampa Bay Lightning are all in the same boat. Anybody think those teams can't come back? Didn't think so. If they take care of their own end, get the goaltending they've been getting all season long, and capitalize on the power play, they will advance. They're better than the Penguins; they just have to prove it.

Chill, people.

NHL Playoff Preview

The 2022 Stanley Cup Playoffs are finally here, and for the first time since the league went with a regional alignment, the Eastern Conference saw all eight of its teams finish at or above 100 points. It was an enormous accomplishment, but it was only possible because six teams in the East are currently in the middle of a rebuild, one - the Philadelphia Flyers - which should be, and one - the New York Islanders - that got off to an horrendous start. 

Another incredible accomplishment is that of the sixteen teams in the tournament, no fewer than eleven have a legitimate shot at winning the Cup; seven in the East and four in the West. Below is a preview of the first round, beginning with the New York Rangers. As with most of my predictions, take them with a grain of salt.

Eastern Conference:

New York vs. Pittsburgh: Since the Penguins last won the Stanley Cup in 2017, they have been eliminated in the first round every year but one - 2018 - when they lost to the eventual Cup champion Washington Capitals. While they still have a potent offense, the loss of Tristan Jarry for at least the first two games of the series will hurt in goal where the Rangers already enjoy a huge edge with Igor Shesterkin.

The keys to a Rangers win will be 1) how well they fare on the power play, which was one of the best in the NHL during the regular season, but failed to convert once over the last three games; 2) whether Artemi Panarin and Andrew Copp are 100 percent after sustaining injuries; and 3) whether the "kid" line of Filip Chytil, Alexis Lafreniere and Kaapo Kakko can provide enough offense to keep the opposition honest.

Both teams ostensibly play the same style of hockey, which means we will likely see the stars - Panarin, Zibanejad, Kreider and Fox vs. Crosby, Malkin, Guentzel and Letang - decide the winner. That should be good news for the Blueshirts who, despite the additions Chris Drury made over the off season, are still susceptible to teams that are aggressive on the forecheck, i.e., the Carolina Hurricanes and the Islanders. One additional note: since the trade deadline, the Rangers have been one of the best 5v5 teams in the league. 

I expect an exciting series, with both teams winning at least one game in the other's building, one that could go the full seven. But in the end, the Rangers should emerge on top. Rangers in six.

Florida vs. Washington: Even with a fully healthy Alex Ovechkin, this was an uphill battle for the Caps. If he's unable to play or hobbled by his shoulder injury, this could get out of hand quickly. The Panthers are not a particularly strong defensive team, which will no doubt be exploited at some point during the postseason, but not in this series. Panthers in five.

Carolina vs. Boston: To be honest, I've been impressed with the season the Bruins have had without a legit 2C and no Tuukka Rask in net. Credit head coach Bruce Cassidy for squeezing every last ounce of talent out of this bunch. The problem for Bean Town is that the Hurricanes have their own outstanding head coach in Rod Brind'Amour who just happens to have a much deeper team. Hurricanes in six.

Toronto vs. Tampa Bay: Auston Matthews will be the best player in this series. Unfortunately for the Maple Leafs, that's the only advantage they will have going for them. The Lightning are just too deep and too experienced. They also have the best goaltender on the planet in Andrei Vasilevskiy. Bolts in six.

Western Conference:

Colorado vs. Nashville: Imagine busting your ass over a full 82 game schedule just for the privilege of facing the Avalanche in the first round. The hockey gods are cruel indeed. The only way the Preds keep this close is if Roman Josi - a lock for the Norris trophy - plays like a maniac, and Juuse Saros steals a game or two. Otherwise, this could be a sweep. Avs in five.

Calgary vs. Dallas: And Joe Pavelski stayed for this? The Stars have the thinest roster of any team in the postseason, and that includes the Caps. Talk about a mismatch. Darryl Sutter has coached two Stanley Cup winning teams - both in LA. Calgary could be his third. Flames in four.

Edmonton vs. Los Angeles: If Jonathan Quick rediscovers his past magic, the Kings could make this an interesting series. But that's a tall order against the likes of Connor McDavid and Leon Draisaitl. Another lopsided series. Oilers in five.

Minnesota vs. St. Louis: Only a league as inept as the NHL could have two of the best teams in one conference meet in the first round. Seriously, either one of these teams could go to the finals, that's how good they both are. The Blues have nine 20 plus goal scorers - the most in the league - while the Wild have Kirill Kaprizov up front and Marc-Andre Fleury in goal. Wild in seven.

I'll make my predictions for round two when round one is over. No sense spoiling the anticipation.