Thursday, December 30, 2021

We're About To Find Out What the Rangers Are Made Of


Let's cut to the chase. Wednesday night's 4-3 loss against the Florida Panthers was disappointing. Yes, Igor Shesterkin let in a couple of soft goals, and, yes, if Ryan Strome had scored on that breakaway early in the third period, the outcome might've been different. Shoulda, coulda woulda. Excuses, excuses, excuses. The simple truth is that what happened against the Panthers was no different than what happened against the Avalanche (twice) or the Predators or the Golden Knights. Despite their early season success, the Rangers remain a work in progress.

And now this work in progress that has turned so many heads this year is about to go from the proverbial frying pan to the fire. Beginning with Friday night's match in Tampa against the Lightning, the Blueshirts are about to embark on a stretch of fifteen games over the next four weeks, only two of which are against teams with losing records. If the last seven games - in which they went 0-4-1 against winning teams - are any indication, we're about to find out what this team is made of.

I won't mince words here. There are a couple of holes that need to be plugged if this team is going to become a legit contender. The first is right wing. As long as Gerard Gallant insists on keeping Chris Kreider on left wing, Dryden Hunt is going to continue to look out of place playing alongside Strome and Artemi Panarin. The guy is a bottom six winger, period.

And speaking of being overmatched, Julien Gauthier is in over his head. He's got the speed and he's got the size, but he can't finish worth a damn. The season-ending injury to Sammy Blais may have presented Gauthier with the gift of a lifetime, but it's a gift he seems determined to return.

Clearly Chris Drury needs to address this problem, and somehow I doubt Tim Gettinger is the answer. The perennial Hartford Wolf Pack forward was recently called up to replace Kevin Rooney who's on the Covid protocol list. With Will Cuylle is at least a year away, that means a trade is in order.

Please spare me with the Pavel Buchnevich recriminations. Look, he's gone; get over it; it's time to move on, people. So who should Drury go after?

Tomas Hertl's name has come up lately. The San Jose forward is in the last year of his contract and checks off multiple boxes. Gallant can slot him at right wing on either of the first two lines, or he can fill the other hole on this team by using him at center on the third. 

Let's face it, whether you think Filip Chytil is a bust or not, he's not working out at center, and he doesn't appear to be any better at wing. He's got one more year left at a very reasonable $2.3 million and getting rid of his salary would help Drury in his contract negotiations with Strome. And if it turns out he can't re-sign Strome, then Drury can use that money towards Hertl. Chytil for Hertl straight up makes sense.

Another name that keeps coming up, and the one I think Drury has the best chance of landing, is Reilly Smith. Not to beat a dead horse, but the Golden Knights are going to have to shed some salary to get under the cap before they can activate Jack Eichel. Smith's $5 million contract makes the most sense. He's a UFA after the season and he's just what the doctor ordered for a Rangers team that desperately needs a right winger who can finish. To get him, Drury might have to part with one of his second-round draft picks and a prospect from Hartford, perhaps Zac Jones.

As for the defense, I don't see it as a major area of concern so I don't expect Drury to make any moves here. Their top four are solid and the third pairing with Patrick Nemeth and Nils Lundkvist is serviceable for now. Don't forget, Braden Schneider will likely be with the club next year so the future looks bright. The Islanders should be this deep.

Bottom line, while the Ranges wait for Kaapo Kakko and Alexis Lafreniere to, hopefully, deliver on their promise, and youngsters like Cuylle, Brennan Othman, Ryder Korczak and Schneider to develop, they cannot, and must not, let this season go to waste. A rental like Hertl or Smith can help them now without mortgaging the future. 

Drury would be a fool to pass on the opportunity.


Sunday, December 19, 2021

How To Save the NHL Season



According to ESPN, there are currently 70 NHL players - roughly 10 percent of the league - who are in Covid protocol. Given the way the new Omicron variant is spreading throughout both the U.S. and Canada, that number is expected to rise, if not double, within the next few days.

Breakout infections have forced the Calgary Flames, Nashville Predators, Boston Bruins, Colorado Avalanche and Florida Panthers to shutdown operations until after Christmas. There have been calls for a league-wide pause through the holidays. In some Canadian cities, attendance at arenas has been restricted to 50 percent capacity. Montreal went so far as to bar all fans from the Bell Centre during a recent game between the Canadiens and the Flyers.

In response to the situation, the league, in conjunction with the Player's Association, agreed to the following changes in its Covid protocol:
  • All players will be subjected to daily testing.
  • Masks will be worn by all players, coaches and trainers at club facilities.
  • While on the road, social distancing must be maintained during team meals.
  • There will be no indoor eating or drinking in restaurants or bars open to the public.
While all these measures are laudable, they are unlikely to be successful. Indeed, daily testing will all but guarantee that the number of positive results will rise precipitously. And as for a league-wide pause, this is the worst time of year to do something like that. Sending 700 players home for the holidays to mingle with family and friends would be like pouring lighter fluid on a fire.

So what should Gary Bettman, et al do?

Fortunately, the NHL doesn't have to look very far. The NFL has already provided them, and the NBA, with a template. Faced with their own outbreaks that have decimated teams and forced the postponement of several games this weekend, league officials came up with a solution they believe will save the season and the playoffs.
  • All unvaccinated players will continue to get tested daily, and if they test positive will be quarantined.
  • Vaccinated players who are symptomatic will be isolated and tested immediately, and if they test positive will be quarantined.
  • Vaccinated players who are asymptomatic will not undergo mandatory testing.
  • High-risk players may opt out of the rest of the season, including the playoffs.
I would also add the following to this list:
  • The Beijing Olympics are off as far as player participation is concerned, and the All-star game will be canceled. The league will use the three weeks in February to make-up the games that were postponed.
  • All players and team personnel who are eligible to receive booster shots will be required to get them.
Now before you accuse me of being part of the anti-vaxxer mob, let me just say up front that the reason we are in this predicament is because roughly one third of the country has refused to do the right thing. The simple truth is that had every single person who was able to get vaccinated done so, we'd be close to, if not at, herd immunity, and we would not now be seeing the rash of Covid infections that have forced every professional sports league to postpone games. When historians sit down to write this chapter in American history, there will be a lot of head scratching and references to Ripley's Believe It or Not.

But here's the thing: the overwhelming majority of players in pro sports are fully vaccinated; in the NHL, only one player - Tyler Bertuzzi - is unvaccinated. The majority of players who have tested positive are either asymptomatic or have mild symptoms. One player on the Maple Leafs reported having fever, chills and body aches. Compared to the population at large, the NHL is a virtual panacea. While eliminating mandatory testing would no doubt spread the virus even more than it is currently spreading, there are steps the league can take - such as mandatory masks and social distancing - to mitigate the risk to the players.

I seriously don't see anyway that sports as we know it can continue to move forward unless a sense of pragmatism is adopted. Daily testing and pausing the schedule simply will not cut it. Each variant that comes along appears to be more transmissible than the previous one, and while the jury's still out as to whether Omicron leads to milder or worse illness, what we do know is this: fully vaccinated people with booster shots fare much better.

Bottom line: protect the players as much as possible, but let them play. If the league needs to impose additional restrictions in order to protect its staff and the fans, it can do so while not compromising the integrity of the games. To require a team to play with as much as one third of its roster in Covid protocol is simply unacceptable, especially when, as stated above, the majority of those players are asymptomatic. And it's a slap in the face to the loyal fans who pay good money to attend the games.


P.S., the NHL announced on Sunday that all games involving cross-border travel have been suspended until after the Christmas break, including Wednesday's game between the Rangers and Canadiens at the Garden.


Thursday, December 16, 2021

Coyote Ugly


File this under "we'll take the two points, thank you." The New York Rangers, losers of two in a row and three of their last four, limped out of the Arizona desert with a come from behind victory over the hapless Coyotes, thanks to two late power play goals by Mika Zibanejad and Kaapo Kakko. To say they were fortunate would be an understatement.

Consider this: the Arizona Coyotes are last in the NHL in points, last in goals scored and second to last in goals against. Yet, last night the Rangers made them look like world beaters. It's one thing to get outplayed by the Colorado Avalanche; they are, after all, one of the four best teams in the Western conference. To get outplayed by a team that many picked to be a draft lottery finalist at the start of the season is embarrassing.

This wasn't a resilient team that persevered and found a way to win; this was a sloppy and lackluster team that needed to be rescued by an undisciplined team that gifted them two power play opportunities late in the third period. Sans that, we'd be talking about a three-game losing streak today and a lot of soul searching.

You can blame the scheduling all you want. Playing six games in nine nights is brutal, I get it. But good teams rise above those sorts of handicaps and take care of business. We did not see a good team last night; we saw an incredibly lucky one that should seriously consider sending every Coyote player a dozen roses.

Yes, they are in first place and, yes, they are an incredible 11-0-1 against teams with losing records. But dig a little deeper and what you'll find is a bit unsettling. Of those eleven wins, six have been by one goal, including two against the Sabres and last night's yawner against the Coyotes. The one lone "laugher" - a 6-2 rout against the Blackhawks in Chicago - was a tie game heading into the third period. And the 4-1 win they had at UBS Arena against the Islanders - a team that at the time was decimated by a Covid outbreak - was only 2-0 after two periods.

While they are 8-7-2 against teams with winning records, two of those wins were the direct result of Igor Shesterkin standing on his head; while three of the losses were blowouts: 5-1 and 6-0 against Calgary, and the recent 7-3 shellacking against Colorado at the Garden last week. Their plus-10 goal differential is the lowest among the four division leaders. And they have yet to play the Carolina Hurricanes, the Tampa Bay Lightning or the Pittsburgh Penguins, winners of five in a row.

Look, I don't think it's time to push the panic button; not yet, at least. But there is reason to be concerned. These trends are not good. Teams that habitually live on the edge almost invariably die on it. Of their 84 goals, 43 have come from Zibanejad, Artemi Panarin, Chris Kreider, Ryan Strome and Adam Fox. The "kids" - Kakko, Alexis Lafreniere and Filip Chytil - at times have been in the witness protection program. Kakko finally got off the schneid last night, scoring twice, including the game winner; Chytil was a healthy scratch - draw your own conclusions; Dryden Hunt is a top-six forward the way I'm an NBA center; Barclay Goodrow has played every position except defense and goal; and Julien Gauthier still can't finish. Gerard Gallant is doing everything humanly possible to squeeze every ounce of talent out of this group and, so far, he's been very successful.

Despite their impressive record, the Rangers are NOT, I repeat NOT, a Stanley Cup contender. Yes, they will make the playoffs, but unless Chris Drury decides to pull the trigger and utilize the cap space he has to address this team's needs - a right winger who can bury the puck or a play-making center - their chances of advancing deep in the postseason are next to nil.

Their power play bailed them out last night; it won't save them come May.



Friday, December 10, 2021

Claude Giroux to Rangers Makes Sense



Normally, I am not a huge believer in making mid-season blockbuster deals. Almost invariably they don't pan out. The lone exceptions are a) when a team is close to winning it all and needs that extra boost to put it over the top, or b) when a team is on a downward trajectory and is looking to clean house.

The Rangers have gone through both. In 1994, then GM Neil Smith traded away young talent to acquire the final pieces for what he believed would be the franchise's best chance of capturing its first Stanley Cup championship since 1940. In 2018, then GM Jeff Gorton came to the conclusion that the team he and Glen Sather had assembled had run its course and it was time to tear it down and start over.

Both men, as it turns out, were right in their assessments. Smith's moves got him his Cup later that Spring, though it came at a steep price; and Gorton's rebuild, though he is not around to enjoy it, has produced a team that is turning heads and making some rather loud noise.

That 1994 Rangers team will always be treasured by its fans. As for this year's team, the jury is still out. There are times when they play like Cup contenders; then there are times when their flaws are exposed by better, more competent teams. 

The loss at the hands of the Colorado Avalanche Wednesday night could be explained away as simply a team that was exhausted after playing the night before and not getting back to New York until early in the morning. And to be honest, they looked sluggish from the opening draw. When you play like that against the second best offense in the league with a rookie goaltender in net, you're going to get lit up. And that's exactly what happened; the Avalanche scored five goals in the second period on their way to a 7-3 thrashing.

But I would be remiss if I didn't point out that this team, as exciting and fun as it's been to watch, has a few holes in it that need filling. And if Chris Drury is half the GM I think he is, he will be working the phones between now and the trade deadline in March looking to address them.

First off, let's put the kibosh on the Patrick Kane talk. Yes, he's an upgrade over anything the Rangers currently have on right wing, but the cost of acquiring him would be prohibitive. For starters, you'd be looking at giving up Kaapo Kakko, Nils Lundkvist, and a high-round draft pick for a 33 year-old forward with a $10.5 million cap hit who is a UFA after 2023. Even if the Blackhawks were willing to eat half of Kane's contract through next season - and that's a big if - the Rangers would still be on the hook for the remaining $5.25 million.

And that means any hope Drury has of re-signing Ryan Strome is all but gone. You didn't seriously think Strome's agent would be dumb enough to let his client sign a team-friendly deal to keep him on Broadway AFTER that team moved heaven and earth to land a player who's five years older and making twice the money, did you?

So, if the Rangers do indeed acquire Kane, it's with the understanding that the window to win a Cup is this year, and this year only. Anyone who thinks this is the correct move for a franchise coming out of a four-year rebuild has taken one too many pucks to the head. At least when Smith sold off his team's future, he already had a division title and a President's trophy under his belt. All Drury has at the moment is a team that has gotten off to a surprisingly good start.

But if it's not Kane, then who? That depends on which position Drury thinks needs more fortifying. The defense looks set. After a rough start, Patrik Nemeth seems to be settling in as Lundkvist's partner on the third pairing. So that leaves right wing and center in most need of attention.

Since Sammy Blais went down with a torn ACL, the Rangers have been scrambling to find a replacement for him. Let's face it: Julien Gauthier is not it. He has the speed and he has the size, he just can't finish. I swear if he had an empty net to shoot at he'd hit the cross bar. His one and only goal of the season came as a result of a turnover he caused against the Montreal Canadiens. Between him and Dryden Hunt, at least Hunt knows what to do with the puck when he gets it on his stick.

With that in mind, I am on record as saying the logical move to make here is to acquire Reilly Smith from the Vegas Golden Knights. Unlike Kane, Smith is a UFA after this season, so he'd be a rental. No apple cart to upset, no cap hell to deal with after the season. And the cost should be considerably lower, say a mid-round draft pick and a prospect not named Braden Schneider or Will Cuylle. And best of all, he was on the team that went to the finals under Gerard Gallant in 2018 so he's familiar with his system. With 10 tallies already on the season, he'd be the second-leading goal scorer on this team. Gallant can slot him on the first, second or third lines.

Why would the Golden Knights give up a player like Smith? Because they're $10 million over the cap once Jack Eichel comes back from LTIR. Smith's contract is worth $5 million, so they'd have to shed an additional $5 mill to get compliant. That's Kelly McCrimmon's problem. With cap space to spare, all Drury has to concern himself with is getting the best possible player to help his team. 

But if Drury really wants to roll the dice and land the biggest fish in the pond that could actually help his team get to the finals, he should probably turn his attention south towards the city of brotherly love. It's no secret that the Philadelphia Flyers are not a good team. The moves Chuck Fletcher made during the offseason not only failed to address the biggest areas of concern the team has, they depleted the valuable draft capital he is going to need to rebuild.  

When Fletcher finally does decide to start his selloff - I figure by mid-January - the first to go will likely be Claude Giroux. At 33, and in the last year of a $8.275 million AAV contract, Giroux checks all the boxes. He can play center or wing, he can shoot, he can pass and he's a leader in the locker room. In 967 games - all with the Flyers - he has amassed 282 goals and 597 assists for 879 points. And best of all, his winning face-off percentage is an outstanding 62 percent this season. The last two years, it was 59 and 59.6 percent respectively. No one on this Rangers' team even comes close.

Just picture Giroux centering a third line with Alexis Lafreniere on the left and Julien Gauthier on the right. Imagine the nightmare having three scoring lines would create for opposing coaches. Every line would have a bonafide playmaker on it. And if you're wondering what this means for Filip Chytil, the answer is pretty obvious. This is now his fourth year in the NHL and far from progressing, he appears to be regressing. With the goal and assist he picked up against the Avalanche, Chytil now has 6 points on the season. To put that in perspective, Barclay Goodrow, the player Drury brought in for grit purposes, has 10. Like it or not, it's time to admit the painful truth: Chytil, like Lias Andersson, was a bust. When your fourth line is generating more scoring chances than your third line, that's a problem. 

But there are two obstacles standing in the way of the Rangers being able to get their hands on Giroux. The first concerns the center's no-move clause. Giroux has been emphatic: he wants to stay in Philly and he's not willing to waive his NMC. Fletcher would have to convince him that a trade is the best thing for him since it's unlikely the team would re-sign him during the offseason. And if his agent is good at basic math, he's probably already informed his client that the Flyers don't have enough cap space next year to retain him anyway.

So let's assume that Giroux has a change of heart and agrees to waive his NMC. What haul would Fletcher demand for his services? He already gave up a first and a second round pick to Buffalo in exchange for Rasmus Ristolainen, a defenseman who makes Nemeth look like Brian Leetch. I figure Fletcher probably wants to turn the tables on an opposing GM to recoup his losses. Under no circumstances should Drury part with his own number one for a rental. A fair trade would be Chytil and one of the Rangers' two second round picks. Drury should be firm and tell Fletcher to take it or leave it. If Fletcher still wants another body, Drury can throw in Tim Gettinger. The perennial Hartford product has 6 goals and 11 points for the Wolf Pack and at 6'6" and 218 lbs, would make an ideal Flyer.

How would trading for Giroux affect the negotiations between Drury and Strome's agent? Not nearly as much as trading for Kane would. If anything, by moving Chytil's $2.3 million contract, it frees up the cap space needed to re-sign Strome to an extension that would keep him paired with Artemi Panarin for the next four years. After this season, Goodrow could then move up and center the third line. He's already centering the fourth line so what's the big deal? With Lafrienere on the left and a healthy and re-signed Blais on the right, the Rangers would have a solid, if unspectacular, third line. And if they opt to move on from Blais, they have Cuylle waiting in the wings. The more I see of this kid, and this year's first rounder Brennan Othmann, the more impressed I become with this organization.

The bottom line is this: Giroux to the Rangers makes sense. In fact, either a Giroux or Smith rental would improve this team considerably without mortgaging its future, which is looking brighter and brighter by the day. And, dare I say it, transform it into a legitimate Stanley Cup contender.

Yes, I dare.



Monday, December 6, 2021

Dissecting What's Wrong With the Islanders



There have been a number of surprises in the NHL so far this season; some pleasant, some not so pleasant. Two of the more pleasant surprises have been the Minnesota Wild and the Calgary Flames. Both are leading their respective divisions; the former with the second-best offense in the league and the latter with the stingiest defense. The Flames might be the biggest surprise of all; last season in a realigned North Division, they couldn't even beat out a Montreal Canadiens team that had no business being in the playoffs. As things stand now, they are the early odds-on favorite to emerge from the Western Conference.

Heading up the not so pleasant surprises are the New York Islanders, a team that last season was five wins away from hoisting the Stanley Cup, and the year before fell six games short. As of this writing, they are tied with the Canadiens for the third fewest points in the league with 15; only the Ottawa Senators (13) and the Arizona Coyotes (12) have fewer.

Many have speculated as to what happened to this team. After careful consideration, I have come up with three things:

1. The early schedule. There's no getting around it. Opening up with thirteen straight road games to start the season was a tactical blunder. The moment management - and by management, I mean Lou Lamoriello - knew that UBS Arena was not going to be ready in time for the beginning of the 2021-22 season, there should've been a backup plan in place. You can't tell me that Lamoriello couldn't have arranged to play a couple of games at the Barclay Center or the Nassau Coliseum until UBS was ready. Forcing this team to play away from home for a month took its toll on the players. At one point, they were 5-2-2; then the roof caved in on them. Inexcusable.

2. The injury bug and Covid outbreak. As if the road trip from hell wasn't bad enough, the injury bug bit them, and right after that a Covid outbreak hit. When they finally did open their season at UBS, almost half the roster was either on IR or in quarantine. Not even the deepest of teams can overcome that many players being out of the lineup. In all fairness, the league should've postponed their games against the Maple Leafs, Rangers and Penguins. They looked like a minor league team out there against those opponents.

3. The offense has been MIA. Even before the start of their eleven game skid, the Isles were hardly an offensive juggernaut. Over their first nine games, they scored 25 goals, an average of 2.8 goals per game. Indeed, during the Lamoriello / Barry Trotz reign, this team has consistently ranked near the bottom of the league in goals for while finishing near the top in goals against. The problem with relying on a formula that puts so much emphasis on defense at the expense of offense is that your margin for error is already slim. During this losing streak, they scored a paltry 13 goals. That's an average of 1.2 goals per game. No matter how good your defense is - they currently rank 6th in the league - you still need to put the puck in the net in order to win. Players like Matt Barzal, Brock Nelson and Anders Lee are simply not good enough to carry this team. Anywhere else, they'd be second or third liners, at best.

Throughout his long and brilliant career, Lou Lamoriello has eschewed stars for underachievers who were willing to check their egos at the door for the good of the team. When he ran the New Jersey Devils, his teams specialized in employing the trap, one of the most boring systems ever thrust upon the NHL. It led to five finals appearances, three Cup championships and universal scorn from more talented teams who were often frustrated by the discipline Lou's players exhibited.

Since Lamoriello and Trotz arrived on the Island, no team in the NHL has been more difficult to play against than the Islanders. Their patience and brand of physicality are tailored made for deep playoff runs that over the last two years damn near paid off. So successful was their strategy, I picked them to win the Stanley Cup this season.

But the rash of injuries and Covid cases has exposed a fatal flaw in Lamoriello's method of madness. At a time when the team desperately could've used an elite player or two to carry them through this period, the plethora of gritty players he has assembled have been badly overmatched. When you live by the sword, you sometimes die by it. And right now, this team is hemorrhaging.

However, it's still early in the season. This team should be back to full strength before Christmas. If they can get back to the .500 mark by the end of December, there's still a chance they can sneak into the playoffs as a wildcard. And if they do sneak in, they will be very difficult to beat.

How difficult? Just ask the Tampa Bay Lightning, who needed all seven games in last year's semifinals to dispatch them, what it's like to play against the Islanders. Or the Boston Bruins, who got the shit kicked out of them in last year's quarterfinals. The only thing harder than losing to the Islanders, is beating them. Of the last four games they lost, all were by one goal, three in overtime. Does anyone think for a moment that with a healthy lineup those couldn't have been wins?

They have the goaltending, they have the defense. The only thing that might trip them up is that they happen to play in the Metropolitan Division, the best division in hockey, and they've already lost a lot of ground. If they don't turn this thing around soon, they will eventually run out of time.

But if I were a betting man, I wouldn't place any significant amount of money on that happening.

Saturday, December 4, 2021

The Rangers Are for Real


The stats don't lie; neither does the record. After twenty-two games, the Rangers are an incredible 15-4-3, good for second in the Metropolitan division, two points behind the Washington Capitals whom they have two games in hand on. They are fourth in the Eastern conference, and fifth overall in the NHL out of 32 teams. And while their offense has only generated an 18th best 65 goals, their defense has allowed the 6th fewest with 55. If you saw this coming at the start of the season, you're a better person than me.

Igor Shesterkin has had a huge role to play in this team's success, no doubt about it. His performance in Toronto, in which he literally stole two points, was one for the ages. That's why it's critical that the injury he sustained last night at the Garden against the San Jose Sharks not be too serious. When Gerard Gallant said at his postgame presser that it - the injury - wasn't as bad as it looked, he conveniently left out that it looked REAL bad. Even a minor groin pull could sideline Shesterkin for a couple of weeks. Alexandar Georgiev will finally get the chance to establish himself as a top-flight goalie. So far this season, he's been anything but.

Shesterkin's injury notwithstanding, this team has been one of the biggest surprises of the 2021-22 season. Since they were blanked by the Calgary Flames on November 6, the Rangers have gone 9-1 in their last ten games, seven in a row at home. The only blemish, a 2-1 loss to the Maple Leafs in Toronto. Call it payback for the heist Shesterkin pulled off earlier in the year. Their even-strength play has gone from one of the worst in the league to one of the best, and their power play is 9th in the NHL.

They are getting key contributions from every one and every line. Adam Fox continues to improve upon last year's Norris Trophy performance; Chris Kreider is having the best year of his career; both Mika Zibanejad and Artemi Panarin continue to put up points, even even while still struggling to score goals; Barclay Goodrow - the player virtually everyone insisted Chris Drury overpaid for - has produced everywhere Gallant has put him; Kevin Rooney, the player everyone and their uncle wanted Drury to leave unprotected in the expansion draft, has scored 5 goals - 2 against the Islanders; Jacob Trouba is shooting the hell out of puck and has found the back of the net four times so far this season; and Kaapo Kakko, who went scoreless in his first ten games, now has 8 points (3 goals and 5 assists) in his last seven.

I know it's not fair to draw comparisons, but this team does remind me a lot of the 1978-79 Rangers. That team had role players like Dean Talafous, Pierre Plante and Eddie Johnston who contributed to an unlikely Stanley Cup final run. Seriously, before the season started, did you think we'd be talking about Julien Gauthier and Dryden Hunt? Neither did I. Yet both players are now integral to the success of this team. Go figure.

Last night's game might be the best one they've played this young season. Up 1-0 when their star goalie went down five minutes into the third period, they protected that lead. Not by sitting back, like other Rangers teams in the past might've done, but by carrying the play to the Sharks. It was four minutes before Georgiev was forced to make a save. In all he stopped nine shots, at least four of which were ticketed, but his teammates did their damnedest to help him out and preserve the shutout. The last two minutes of the game were spent almost entirely in the San Jose end, much to the delight of their head coach.

And speaking of that head coach, it's time to admit he was the right choice for this team. After three years of David Quinn, who quite frankly never should've been hired, Gallant's approach has been just what the doctor ordered. This team not only believes in itself, it sticks up for itself. When J-G Pageau of the Islanders hit Ryan Lindgren in the head with his elbow, his defense partner Adam Fox immediately went after Pageau. Later on near the end of the game, Alexis Lafreniere decked him. Last year's team would've wilted; this year's team responds. That's the difference. They may not be the biggest or the toughest in the league, but they are no longer the pushovers they used to be.

I've said all season long that this team is resilient. Well now they're more than that; they're for real. And what's more, they're starting to believe it. They can skate, they can check and they can defend. And if Gauthier ever learns how to finish, watch out. No, they're not the Edmonton Oilers or the Carolina Hurricanes; not yet, at least. But they are a legitimate playoff team. If Georgiev can hold the fort until Shesterkin returns, they will be a force to reckoned with, mark my words.

I'm genuinely excited about this team. The rebuild is finally over and it was a resounding success. Drury deserves his share of the credit, as does Jeff Gorton, who is now running the Montreal Canadiens, and John Davidson, who is back with the Columbus Blue Jackets. 

Management doesn't need to panic and make an unnecessary trade for disgruntled Boston Bruins winger Jake DeBrusk, or reacquire J.T. Miller from the Vancouver Canucks, especially when we still don't know how long Shestekin will be out. If a backup goaltender is needed, that's where the resources should go. $7 million in available cap space can go a long way.

The bottom line is this: Rangers' fans have been waiting for this moment for four years. Well, it's finally here, guys. So, sit back and enjoy the ride.



Tuesday, November 30, 2021

Steve Cohen Finally Reels in a Big Fish



Look, did the Mets overpay for Max Scherzer? In a word, yes. 

Why? Because they're the Mets, that's why. They had to beat out the Dodgers who, truth be told, are a lot closer to winning a World Series than the Flushing Orange and Blue. So when Los Angeles offered Scherzer $40 million per year, Steve Cohen had to up the ante to $43.3 mill to close the deal.

Was he worth it? That depends on whether Cohen's offseason spending splurge is over or whether it's just getting started. Because even with a starting rotation that features Jacob deGrom and Scherzer at the top, there are still plenty of question marks for this organization.

For starters, who's going to be the closer? Edwin Diaz has one more year left on his contract and has yet to establish himself as a reliable closer with this team. At times he's been light's out; at others he's been lit up like a Christmas tree. No matter how great your starting rotation is, if your bullpen can't protect the lead, you're not going to be successful. And it's not just Diaz that is a cause of concern. The middle relievers by the end of the season had clearly been overworked. If the starters can't pitch into at least the 7th inning, the Mets are going to find themselves in the same predicament as last season.

And speaking of starters, the Mets still don't know what they can expect from Carlos Carrasco, Taijuan Walker and David Peterson. Carrasco was on the IL most of last season, and when he wasn't he was hardly what you would call major league caliber. Walker had an outstanding first half of the season, then crashed and burned the second half. And Peterson is still a work in progress. With Noah Syndergaard defecting to the Los Angeles Angels for $23 mill and Marcus Stroman practically out the door himself, this is very top heavy rotation. And keep in mind, we still don't know if the physical ailments that plagued deGrom most of last season will return in 2022. If they do, Scherzer might be the only legit starter on this staff.

Starling Marte, Eduardo Escobar and Mark Canha are all quality signings and represent upgrades over the players the Mets had at those positions, but none are what could be considered elite. Marte was once viewed as one of the best center fielders in the game not that long ago. And while his numbers have tailed off a bit since his days with the Pittsburgh Pirates, he managed to hit 12 homers, drive in 55 runs and bat over .300 with the Miami Marlins and the Oakland A's last season. If he can replicate that performance this season in Queens, the Mets will be very happy with him. 

With Javier Baez signing with the Detroit Tigers, second base is now up for grabs. Do the Mets go with a tandem of Jeff McNeil and Robinson Cano, or do they buy out Cano's contract, trade McNeil and sign a replacement? And with Michael Conforto turning down their qualifying offer to become a free agent, the Mets will also need a new right fielder. In other words, don't put that check book away just yet, Stevie.

And we still don't know who's going to manage this team. New GM Billy Eppler, who in his five years with the Angels did not have a single winning season, will be tasked with finding someone who can take this team to the next level. Good luck with that. Quality managers don't grow on trees.

So, yes, the Scherzer signing was huge and well worth it. Kudos to Cohen for ponying up the big bucks. But there's a lot more work that needs to be done before this team is ready to contend for the National League East, let alone the World Series.

Wednesday, November 17, 2021

Evaluating Chytil is the Key to Rangers' Future Success



Some thoughts on the news that Sammy Blais will miss the rest of the season with a torn ACL due to a collision with P.K. Subban, and where the Rangers go from here.

One, it's time the NHL finally dealt with this man. This is not the first time Subban has injured someone by slew footing them. Ryan Reeves was almost seriously injured during the pre-season when Subban stuck out his leg, causing Reeves's right leg to buckle and landing him on his ass. And while technically, Subban did not slew foot Blais, he definitely stuck out his leg and caused Blais to go down awkwardly. A simple fine won't be sufficient; the league must suspend him in order to send a clear message.

Two, while Blais was having a good season, four assists in 14 games is hardly what I would call indispensable. It's amusing to see the same people who publicly ripped Chris Drury a new one for only getting Blais in return for Pavel Buchnevich now proclaiming Blais as the second coming of Stephane Matteau. At best, he's a third or fourth line winger. The fact that he was on the first line says more about the team's lack of depth at right wing than it does about Blais' bonafides.

Three, having said all that, it was a relief to see that Gerard Gallant resisted the urge to replace Blais with Filip Chytil on this line. While my first choice would've been to move Chris Kreider over to right wing - where he's scored all but 3 of his team-leading 12 goals - and promote Alexis Lafreniere to the first line, I can live with Barclay Goodrow there for now. He does have 7 points so far this season and he's played alongside Kreider before; it was Goodrow's pass from center ice that set up Kreider's goal in Seattle earlier in the season. And I must admit, having Lafreniere on the third line with Chytil and Julien Gauthier, who scored his first goal of the season last night against the Habs, does make this team deeper and harder to play against.

But the biggest reason for keeping Chytil at center has more to do with next season than it does this season. As I've mentioned before, the Rangers have a salary cap problem that is going to profoundly impact the roster for the next several years. They may have $7 million in available cap space now, but once the season is over, all that goes out the window. Both Adam Fox and Mika Zibanejad's contract extension's kick in next season. Between the two, the Blueshirts will have to pony up over $11 million in additional salary. 

But they're not out of the woods just yet. That's because Ryan Strome, who's currently making $4.5 million, is a UFA. When you factor in that Kaapo Kakko and Alexandar Georgiev are both RFAs, the total hit to sign all could well exceed $15 million. Even if the team decides to let Georgiev walk, they still have to come up with a suitable backup goalie, and that won't be cheap. Neither Tyler Wall nor Keith Kinkaid seem like viable options - Kinkaid looked average at best in his brief stint with the Rangers last season - so Chris Drury will most likely have to look outside the organization to find one.

Clearly some tough decisions are going to have to be made if this franchise is to make the jump from playoff contender to Cup contender. While Strome is having another solid season anchoring the second line with Artemi Panarin on the left and Kakko on the right, unless Drury can convince him to re-sign for the same salary, he will be gone next year.

And that means it is imperative that Gallant find out whether Chytil can handle the 2C position. Before he got hurt in a collision with Blais a week ago, Chytil had a goal and an assist in the game at Edmonton. Last night, he put on a burst of speed, blew past the Montreal defense and hit the goal post. His forecheck helped set up Gauthier's goal in the 3rd period. When he's been healthy, he has shown signs of promise.

And that's the rub for Chytil. He has proven to be brittle. Last year he missed 14 games due to injury. Assuming he has what it takes to be the second-line center, can management entrust him with the duties knowing he's one hit away from being out for an extended period of time?

Now you know why Drury signed Goodrow instead of Blake Coleman. Goodrow has played both center and wing throughout his career and is comfortable playing either. If push comes to shove, Drury can always trade Chytil for a bruising winger. Then maybe Strome re-ups for, say, $5.5 million, and Goodrow centers the third line. Not ideal, but it works (see chart below).

But none of that can happen until a full assessment is made of Chytil. He is the key to any future success this team has. If he develops into a solid 2C, then Strome is gone; if he doesn't, Drury will likely trade him and do his best to retain Strome.

It's all on Gallant's shoulders. He has the unenviable task of determining who plays and where. We know David Quinn wasn't up to the challenge, which is one of the reasons why he's no longer behind the bench. Gallant has gotten teams with less talent into the postseason. The question that begs to be answered is whether he can navigate a team coming out of a rebuild into the postseason while not sabotaging its still uncertain and fragile future.



Season 2022-23 
NHL CAP $82,500,000.00 
Forwards
Panarin $11,642,857.00 
Zibanejad $8,500,000.00 
Kreider $6,500,000.00 
Strome $5,500,000.00 
Goodrow $3,641,667.00 
Kakko $2,300,000.00 
Reaves $1,750,000.00 
Blais $1,500,000.00 
Lafreiniere $925,000.00
Cuylle $850,833.00
Gauthier $775,000.00
Hunt $762,500.00
Rooney $750,000.00

Total $45,397,857.00 
Defensemen
Fox $9,500,000.00 
Trouba $8,000,000.00 
Lindgren $3,000,000.00 
Nemeth $2,500,000.00 
Lundkvist $925,000.00
Miller $925,000.00
Tinordi $900,000.00

Total $25,750,000.00 
Goalies
Backup $1,000,000.00 
Shesterkin $5,666,667.00 

Total $6,666,667.00 
Buyouts
Girardi $1,111,111.00 
Shattenkirk $1,433,333.00 
DeAngelo $883,334.00

Total $3,427,778.00 
Total Cap Hit $81,242,302.00 
CAP SPACE $1,257,698.00 


Monday, November 15, 2021

The Kids Are Alright



Two games do not a season make, I realize. But they do represent a rather significant improvement and, hopefully, a turning point for a team that was relying way too much on the heroics of its goaltender Igor Shesterkin to bail them out.

The statistics don't lie. A 5-3 win over the Columbus Blue Jackets, followed by a 4-3 shootout win over the New Jersey Devils, in which the New York Rangers not only won more face-offs, they out shot, out hit and out scored their opponents, is about as one eighty a turnaround as you can expect. 

More significant, the play at even strength, the one metric by which successful teams are measured, has improved considerably. Of the 12 goals they scored over the last three games, all but 3 came at either 5x5 or 4x4. That comes out to an average 3 even-strength goals per game. Extrapolated over the course of an entire season, that would tie them with the Florida Panthers for the league lead.

But last night's thrilling win over the Devils was more than just the second consecutive strong showing by a group of players looking to deliver on the promise of a four-year rebuild that was seriously in doubt; it was the coming out party for one Kaapo Kakko, the second overall pick of the 2019 Draft, who had gone ten games without scoring a single point. The Finnish winger set up fellow milk carton contestant Alexis Lafreniere's fourth goal of the season in the second period to put the Rangers ahead 2-1. And in the third period, his first goal of the season, off a beautiful give and go with Ryan Strome, allowed his team to regain the lead before the Devils tied it late. He would later score on a backhander in the shootout.

The goals were sorely needed. Let's face it, as brilliant as Adam Fox, Chris Kreider, Artemi Panarin and, to a lesser extent, Mika Zibanejad have been throughout the season, they cannot continue to carry the load all by themselves. Sooner or later, Kakko and Lafrenirere have to step up and start pulling their weight. They don't have to be stars, but they can't continue to be missing in action game in and game out. Not if this team is going to succeed.

Fortunately, that won't be the case here. Seriously, did anybody really believe for a moment that Kakko was going to go the entire season without scoring a single goal? Or that Lafreniere was going to score only 15 goals? The Twitter mob notwithstanding, these two players simply have too much talent. My advice for the restless and the weary is to chill and stop comparing them with other first rounders. It'll only give you a headache and it won't accomplish a damn thing.

It's easy to forget that Kaapo Kakko and Alexis Lafreniere are only 20 years old; K'Andre Miller and Nils Lundkvist are barely 21. Even with all the changes Chris Drury made during the off season, this is still a very young team. Despite their early-season struggles, they are in third place in the Metropolitan Division, one point behind the Carolina Hurricanes and Washington Capitals, and two points behind the league-leading Panthers. Imagine where this team will be when they start clicking on all cylinders.

Gerard Gallant finally appears to be getting through to his troops, and assuming Sammy Blais isn't too badly injured after his collision with P.K. - slew foot - Subban, Rangers fans might be in store for a very exciting and rewarding season.

I, for one, am pumped.



Tuesday, November 2, 2021

Rangers Lock Up Their Fox



For once the Twitter universe was in complete agreement. News that the New York Rangers have re-signed their Norris trophy-winning defenseman Adam Fox to a seven year extension with a $9.5 million AAV was met with widespread approval. Even the Debbie Downers who expressed their skepticism about the Mike Zibanejad extension three weeks ago took the night off on this one. For once, all was right with the world.

Let's be honest. The moment the Bruins inked Charlie McAvoy to an eight-year, $9.5 million contract, you knew Fox was going to get the same money. The only question was why didn't Chris Drury lock him up for the full eight years? He certainly had the option to do so if he wanted. Also, while the terms have not yet been disclosed, you can bet the ranch Fox got a no move clause for the full duration. Meaning he isn't going anywhere.

The significance of this signing cannot be overstated. In an earlier piece, I wrote that Artemi Panarin was the best player on this team, but that in a couple of years, Fox might supplant him. Turns out I was only off by about two years. Adam Fox, right now, IS the best player on this team and will likely be so for the foreseeable future. Indeed, both he and Igor Shesterkin are almost entirely responsible for the Rangers being tied for second place in the Metropolitan division going into tonight's game against Vancouver instead of in dead last. Between Shesterkin's acrobatics in net and Fox's clutch scoring, a team that still hasn't gotten comfortable with coach Gerard Gallant's system is quickly becoming one of the best stories of the season.

But while Drury locked up yet another vital component of his core, he will have his work cut out for him next season. That's because Ryan Strome will be a UFA. The second-line center is currently making $4.5 million and when he hits the open market next summer he will fetch in the neighborhood of $6 to $7 million per year. According to Capfriendly, when you account for the Fox and Zibanejad signings and the $3.4 million in dead cap space, the Rangers have a total of $70.8 million committed for 2022-23 with only 16 players under contract. The NHL allows each team up to 23 players.

Starting to see the problem? Even if, as expected, the league increases the salary cap to $82.5 million, that leaves Drury with approximately $11.6 million to sign seven players. And that's not counting the bonus cushion penalty that teams are required to set aside for players with ELCs that have bonus provisions. For instance, this season, the Rangers are setting aside $1.4 million. Assuming that next year's cushion is the same, the real number for Drury will be closer to $10.2 million. Good luck squeezing seven players into $10.2 million.

Bottom line, Strome is gone. Whether he's dealt at the trade deadline or he walks during the summer, the Rangers simply cannot afford to keep him. That's why it is imperative that this team find out whether Filip Chytil can hack it as a number two center. I've been saying for weeks that Galant needs to pair him with Alex Lafreniere and Kaapo Kakko to give him the ice time he needs to display his talents. David Quinn tried this combination a few times last season with mixed results. If Gallant can't get him to the next level, Drury will have to find a suitable replacement for both him and Strome that is affordable. 

As for the balance of the roster, Drury can sign Kakko to a two-year bridge deal similar to the one Pavel Buchnevich got two years ago. $3.25 million is more than fair for a player that is still developing into the second overall pick of 2019. Maybe Sammy Blais re-ups for $1.5 million; the same for Kevin Rooney at $750,000. Drury has several goalies in Hartford that can take Alexandar Georgiev's place as a backup for under a mill. With a little creativity, the Rangers should be able to field a team that can contend while still remaining under the cap. Once the dead cap comes off the books in '23, Drury should have enough to re-sign Lafreniere in two years.

Things will be tight but manageable for the next couple of seasons. But this organization is headed in the right direction. Rangers fans who've been more than patient during this rebuild will soon be rewarded for their loyalty. Think about it. They have two of the top ten forwards in the league, a top five defenseman who's just entering the prime of his career, and an elite goalie that might one day win the Vezina trophy. 

How many teams can say that?

Tuesday, October 26, 2021

Rangers Glass Half Empty


This time there was no miracle comeback. This time there were no acrobatic saves. The lucky and resilient Rangers were neither last night against a Calgary Flames team that out checked, out hustled and, in the end, outscored them. The final score was 5-1, and like the season opener in Washington, it was a fair representation of a team that is still finding it difficult acclimating to the system their coach wants them to play.

After a four-game road winning streak that saw them play maybe four periods of spirited hockey, last night's performance was a dud, to say the least. Time after time, the Rangers tried to carry the puck out of their zone; time after time, the Flames prevented them from doing so. When they did manage to gain the offensive zone, their passes were often intercepted and led to scoring chances the other way. 

Chris Tanev had one of those chances when the Rangers got caught up ice on a 3 on 2. The Calgary defenseman scored with 70 seconds left in the first period. Another came courtesy of a giveaway by Patrik Nemeth behind his own net early in the second and was converted by Andrew Mangiapane. And just like that it was 2-0 Flames. In all, they committed twenty giveaways, nine in the opening period.

We've seen this movie before. The Caps, the Stars, the Senators and now the Flames. The common theme in all four games has been a lackluster performance leading to deficits that make it difficult to overcome. Seriously, if you had the Rangers scoring three goals in a span of 3:20 in Ottawa you're either a liar or clairvoyant. Regardless, this is no way for a team to play if it has any postseason aspirations.

Consider this: not one of the seven teams the Rangers have played this season is considered a legit Cup contender. I know there are fans in Washington and Toronto who might beg to differ. Let them. If either the Caps or Maple Leafs makes it to the finals, I'll start buying lotto tickets. Like I wrote in my last piece, if this is how they're going to play against teams that are beatable, imagine what's going to happen to them when they play against the Bruins, the Hurricanes, or, gulp, the Islanders.

They haven't scored more than three goals in a game all season. Their power play is an anemic 3 for 26. Apart from the goaltending, the lone bright spot has been their penalty kill, which had successfully killed off 14 straight power plays until Mangiapane scored on a five on four at 19:55 of the third period.

Gerard Gallant hinted they might have been tired after a long road trip. Excuses won't cut it. They weren't tired out there, they were sloppy; sloppy and stubborn. They still think they can carry the puck into the zone and set up shop like it's the '80s or something. This reluctance to dump the puck in the corner and forecheck is mind numbing. Even more frustrating is the unwillingness to put bodies in front of the opponents net. Indeed, their only goal came as a result of Kevin Rooney and Dryden Hunt screening the Calgary goaltender with Hunt pouncing on the rebound. See how simple that was?

They got Ryan Strome back last night. He was one of the few bright spots on the ice, winning 11 of 12 face-offs and setting up Artemi Panarin for a breakaway that was stopped. Kaapo Kakko makes his return from an upper-body injury Friday when they host the Columbus Blue Jackets, another beatable team. After that, they embark on a road trip out west.

They're 4-2-1. They could easily be 2-4-1. Barring a trade or serious injury, this is the team that will determine whether the rebuild started by Jeff Gorton four years ago, and tweaked by Chris Drury this summer, was successful or not. Are the Rangers a contender or a pretender? This is the question that remains to be answered. I'm still bullish on the former, but then I've been known to be wrong.

Just take a look at my blog posts.


Tuesday, October 19, 2021

Bread Man and Circuses in Toronto



Any doubts that Igor Shesterkin is an elite goaltender and worth every penny of the $5.6 million the New York Rangers are paying him were, hopefully, put to rest after the performance he displayed in Toronto Monday night. The man put on a clinic that invoked memories of his predecessor, Henrik Lundqvist. In all, Shesterkin stopped 40 of 41 shots, including one while he was 20 feet out of his crease in overtime.

I won't mince words here. The Rangers stole two points; or rather their goaltender stole two points. I haven't seen a game this lopsided in years. The Blueshirts were outshot, out chanced and out hustled by a Maple Leafs team that looked more like the '76 Canadiens than the team that choked in the first round of the playoffs last season. The only stat they managed to win was hits, and that was because for the vast majority of the game they were chasing the puck around the rink like a cat chasing a laser pointer.

Indeed, the winning goal by Artemi Panarin was set up because Mika Zibanejad had the good sense to go forward on the draw rather than back and somehow managed to get the puck to the Bread Man, who wristed it past Jack Campbell. It was one of only 13 face-offs the Rangers won in the game, and it was Panarin's first goal of the season. Prior to that, the all-star winger was so invisible there were milk cartons in Manhattan with his picture on it. 

Look, I know they're shorthanded. Both Ryan Strome and Kaapo Kakko are out of the lineup. The former is due back Thursday against the Predators; the latter probably won't be back for a while. But shorthanded or not, there was no excuse for this performance. Apart from Shesterkin's brilliance in net, Zibanejad, Chris Kreider and Adam Fox are the only skaters on this team pulling their weight.

That is not nearly enough for a team looking to take the next step to playoff contention. In their first four games, the Rangers have played exactly one excellent period of hockey: the second period against the Dallas Stars in game two. They got blasted by the Caps in the season opener, lost in OT to the Stars in their home opener, were good enough to beat a Montreal team few if any expect to make the postseason, and, as I mentioned above, stole two points from Toronto. Just imagine what's going to happen to them when they start playing the elite teams in this conference like the Islanders, Bruins, Panthers, Hurricanes and Lightning. And don't forget Western conference teams like the Avalanche and the Golden Knights. Shesterkin is going to be shellshocked by the All Star break.

Mollie Walker of the New York Post is right. The Rangers can't expect their goalie to continuously bail them out every night. "It's unsustainable." For the team to win it has to do more than just hit. It has to be able to carry the play. The Islanders hit, but they forecheck the hell out of their opponents. It's the number one reason why they've made it to the third round of the playoffs two years in a row and why they were five wins away from winning the Stanley Cup last season.

Adjustments are clearly needed, and Gerard Gallant may have stumbled upon one by accident. He put Panarin and Zibanejad together on the same line half way through the third period and the two generated some scoring chances, including the overtime winner. Until this team gets comfortable with its new faces and its new system, it would behoove Gallant to at least have one cohesive line out there that opponents actually fear. Right now, no one fears this team.

Another thing he can do when Strome and Kakko come back is to elevate Filip Chytil to the second line centering Alex LaFreniere and Kakko. David Quinn tried this combination a few times with mixed results. If the Rangers are going to go anywhere this year they have to figure out whether these three players can handle the load. The sooner they find that out the better. Strome can center the third line. Unless the NHL substantially increases its salary cap - don't hold your breath - Strome is likely going to be dealt at the trade deadline or walk after the season. They simply can't afford to keep him, especially if, as expected, Fox re-signs in the $9 million neighborhood.

And finally, if this team is going to establish a real physical presence, Gallant has to keep Sammy Blais and Barclay Goodrow on the same line. Blais reminds me a little bit of Blake Coleman the way he pursues the puck and finishes his checks. The two could be an effective tandem, but only if they play together.

Bottom line? While it's too early to panic, it's not too early to be alarmed. The problems that are besetting this team, if not addressed soon, threaten to undermine what was labeled as a breakout season.




Friday, October 15, 2021

Did the Rangers Wait Too Long to Re-Sign Adam Fox?



By now you've heard that the Boston Bruins have re-signed their all-star defenseman Charlie McAvoy to an eight-year, $76 million dollar contract extension beginning in 2022-23. For those who didn't bring their calculators with them, that's $9.5 million per year. Or, as we say in New York, "a fuckin' lotta dough."

Just where the Bruins, who are $1.2 million under the cap this season, intend to get that "dough" remains a mystery, especially since Patrice Bergeron, their all-star center, is currently making $6.875 and will be a UFA next summer. But that's their problem.

They say timing is everything. Lost in all the hoopla of the Rangers signing Mika Zibanejad to an eight year, $8.5 million AAV contract is the fact that they have a plethora of pending contracts that will have to be either re-upped or moved over the next couple of seasons. And the biggest of those is Adam Fox, who is in the last year of an entry level contract worth $925,000 per.

With Cale Makar re-signing in Colorado for $9 million per over the summer, the market for defensemen who can score is pretty much set. By waiting as long as they did, the Rangers may have boxed themselves into a corner with their Norris-trophy winner. After the Zibanejad signing, there was some optimism that Chris Drury might be able to persuade Fox to agree to a similar, team-friendly contract. The McAvoy signing pretty much tosses that scenario out the window. At this point, Drury will be lucky if he can get Fox to accept $9 million per. Shit, if Seth Jones is worth $9.5 million, how much is Fox worth?

Welcome to life in the flat salary cap era, or as it's better known in the NHL, the Hunger Games. The Rangers, who for the last three seasons have "enjoyed" the benefits of being among the youngest teams in the league, are about to find out what happens when that youth grows up. In addition to Fox, Kaapo Kakko, Alexis Lafreniere and K'Andre Miller will all see their ELCs expire over the next two years, and barring something unforeseen, all will be due substantial pay raises. Maybe Vitali Kravtsov did them a solid by going AWOL after all. If they can move him for a 2nd rounder or a serviceable forward with a reasonable cap hit, that'll be one less headache for Drury to deal with next summer.

But getting back to Fox, did you see the way he played Thursday night? It was as if the puck was glued to his stick. If Wayne Gretzky had been a defenseman instead of a center, he would've looked just like Fox. Drury is going to have to bite the bullet here. There are some contracts you don't fuck around with. If he's this good at 23, imagine what he's going to look like two or three years from now. 

Get him signed. Get him signed now! If it takes $9.5 mill per to get it done, then that's what it takes. Fuck it, if it takes $10 mill, do it. In five years, it'll be a bargain. Think about it: right now, Artemi Panarin is the best player on this team. Who knows, in a couple of seasons, Fox might supplant him. He's that good.

I know there are risks involved in assembling a top heavy roster. Just ask the Toronto Maple Leafs and the Edmonton Oilers. Both teams have a substantial portion of their salary cap tied up in just a few players. And as a result, both have had a hard time acquiring the depth needed to make a serious run at the Cup. I won't lie to you, that fate could await the Rangers.

But the greater risk, in my opinion, would be letting a generational player like Fox walk because you want the "freedom" to pursue lesser players that, and let's be honest, can be had in any given off season. Yes, the Tampa Bay Lightning would not have won either of their two Stanley Cups if they didn't have foot soldiers like Barclay Goodrow and Blake Coleman in the trenches; but they would never have gotten close if they didn't have world-class talent like Nikita Kucherov and Brayden Point. You need both types of players to win a championship these days.

Adam Fox is the best defenseman the Rangers have had since the days of Brian Leetch. Hell, he might even be better. Chris Drury must make every effort to ensure he never plays for another organization.


Tuesday, October 12, 2021

Kravtsov Debacle Is a Self Inflected Wound for Rangers



Of all the human vices out there, pride and stubbornness might be the most costly. Both basically prevent people from admitting mistakes, some of which are beauts.

In the Spring of 2018, the New York Rangers traded Ryan McDonagh and J.T. Miller to the Tampa Bay Lightning for defenseman Libor Hajek, center Brett Howden, a first-round pick in 2018, a conditional second-round pick in 2019 and forward Vladislav Namestnikov. It was the start of the team's rebuild under then GM Jeff Gorton, and this trade was suppose to be the centerpiece of it. 

Three years later, it's obvious that the trade was a bust. Yes, the Rangers used the first round pick they got to select Nils Lundkvist, the talented Swedish defenseman who has a chance to become an elite player in the NHL. But the jury is still out on second rounder Karl Henricksson, who was just sent down to Hartford in September. Hajek is the last of the three players still with the team, the other two having been dealt.

For the better part of the last two years, Hajek has struggled to crack the Rangers lineup. At times he has looked good, at others he has not. As of now, he isn't even in the top ten in the organizational depth chart. Chris Drury would like to send him down to Hartford, but to do that he would have to clear waivers first, which means the Rangers would likely lose him for nothing.

So rather than bite the bullet and close the book on the McDonagh / Miller trade, Drury decided to send down 2018 first-round pick Vitali Kravtsov instead while he attempts to convince a GM dumb enough to take his call to give him a mid to late-round pick in return for Hajek.

Understandably, Kravtsov didn't take the news of his demotion very well, so he opted not to report to Hartford. And now the organization that was too stubborn to admit it got fleeced by the Lightning, has a disgruntled first round pick on their hands. Their solution to suspend the winger and give his agent permission to contact other teams to seek out a trade not only makes no sense, as Vince Mercogliano pointed out, issuing a public statement like that actually "diminishes his trade value."

The Rangers have had their fair share of self-inflicted wounds over the decades. But this one takes the cake. On the cusp of a season opener that was to begin a new chapter in the franchise's storied existence, for something like this to happen is unforgivable. It's bad enough they opted to pass on Oliver Wahlstrom, the burley, 200 pound winger taken by the Islanders two picks later, but now they've alienated the player they did choose - a player, mind you that has a promising future - in order to protect their interests in a player they have no use for. If your head is spinning, you're not alone.

This didn't have to happen. Drury should've swallowed his pride and cut his losses on Hajek in order to keep Kravtsov in New York. Even if, as Gallant has said, Julien Gauthier and Dryden Hunt had more impressive camps and would most likely have gotten more ice time, just being on the team would've helped his development. There is nothing more Kravtsov can learn by playing with the Wolf Pack. He's not Morgan Barron. Some additional seasoning isn't going to improve his game.

Hopefully this gets resolved before things go too far. Maybe someone can step in, calm down the young player and remind him of the bigger picture here. Perhaps fellow countryman Artemi Panarin can have a heart to heart with him. If that doesn't work, Drury should call up John Davidson in Columbus and, as Rick Carpiniello mused on Twitter, see if there's any interest.

Bottom line, it would really be a terrible waste if Kravtsov ends up becoming the next Lias Anderssen.