Over the next couple of months, the New York Rangers will have to make a number of major and tough decisions regarding how this team will look once the 2020-21 season gets underway. John Davidson and Jeff Gorton have their work cut out for them.
A number of sports "analysts" have chimed in with their opinions, and with the rare exception or two, you can tell none of them have ever run a professional sports franchise. That notwithstanding, I thought I'd dip my big toe into the pool and see if I drown. Spoiler alert, I don't swim.
The Number One Pick: Under no circumstances should Davidson and company trade this pick, not even for the proverbial king's ransom, which for the record hardly ever resembles a ransom, much less a king's one. I've seen most of the prosed trade packages and not one of them makes sense, not even the one involving the Senators sending the Rangers the number three pick along with Brady Tkaczuk in exchange for the number one. No disrespect to Tkaczuk, who is a solid two-way forward, but at best he's a 25 goal scorer. You don't trade the overall number one pick for a player you can get in the middle of the first round in any given year.
Even if Alexis Lafreniere isn't the second coming of Jaromir Jagr, he's still better than anyone the Blueshirts have at left wing, including, dare I say it, Artemi Panarin. The moment he steps onto the Garden ice, he instantly becomes one of the best forwards on this team, and if he does in fact become the next Jagr, he will be the generational player this franchise hasn't had since the days of Mark Messier. Only a fool would trade that away, and I don't believe either Davidson or Gorton are fools.
Second-Line Center: Do the Rangers re-sign Ryan Strome or do they look elsewhere? I know I've beaten this like a dead horse, but thanks to the Kevin Shattenkirk buyout last year, the Rangers will have just north of $13 million in available cap space to attempt to resign four RFAs and one UFA. That's not a lot of space, given that Strome is arbitration eligible and will likely command a hefty raise from last year's $3.1 million contract.
If the braintrust decides to look elsewhere, the pickins are slim. A trade for the rights to Tampa Bay Lightning center Anthony Cirelli - the current fave of the peanut gallery - will come with a huge price tag. The Lightning will almost certainly demand something close to equal value in return, and that return has to something they can retain given their own cap problems, which are considerably worse than the Rangers. I'm thinking Filip Chytil and Vitali Kravtsov. Assuming the Blueshirts say yes, which they shouldn't, they will likely have to pony up about $6 million per over the next six years. That's roughly 45 percent of the available cap space. And I'm not even sure Cirelli is worth that kind of money given that he's scored a measly 5 points in 13 playoff games and he's currently the number two center on this team with Steven Stamkos out with an injury.
The smart move is to re-sign Strome to a two-year bridge deal for about $5.5 million per until you find out if Chytil is the real deal or not. If Strome doesn't pan out, you can always leave him exposed in next year's expansion draft. Hell, he's already been on three teams in five years, what's one more team in the grand scheme of things?
Henrik Lundqvist: Let's not beat around the bush. With the exception of Messier and Brian Leetch, no one has done more for this franchise over the last 30 years than The King. He deserves a better fate than the one that's currently awaiting him, which is to be a backup for 24 year-old Igor Shesterkin. Gorton has already said the Rangers will not go into camp with three goalies, so assuming they sign Alexandar Georgiev, that means Lundqvist is the odd man out.
The only question remaining is whether Lundqvist retires, which would give the Blueshirts all $8.5 million of his cap hit to play with, or he gets bought out, which would leave $5.5 million on the books next season and $1.5 million on the books for 2021-22. Obviously, the former would be a dream come true, but seriously, if you were Lundqvist would you leave that kind of money on the table knowing that you might be out of hockey next year? I sure as shit wouldn't.
With trade options severely limited by 1. Lundqvist's age (38) and 2. his no trade clause, the consensus is that he will be bought out. And that would mean the Rangers would be carrying a staggering sum of $13 million in dead cap space going into next season; 16 percent of the NHL salary cap. Anyway you slice it, that's insane. This is what happens when you sign players in their 30s to very long contracts with no movement clauses.
Lack of Toughness: Unless you believe in flukes, what you saw in Toronto was a Rangers team that got bounced around by the Hurricanes. We saw this all too many times throughout the season: a team with very creative forwards that wasn't adept enough to win the battles in the trenches. More often than not, the goaltending saved their bacon, but not in the Qualifying round. When push came to shove, the Blueshirts got handed their lunch and dinner with dessert on the side.
Obviously, the team needs a transfusion of toughness in order to succeed in the postseason. Perhaps Gorton can trade Pavel Buchnevich - who's in his walk year anyway - for a scrappy winger who isn't afraid to take a hit or initiate one. Or he can just promote a couple of the meatier forwards already in the system like Morgan Barron and Austin Rueschhoff, both of whom can play either center or wing and weigh 220 pounds each. Combined with Julien Gauthier, another 220 pound winger that was obtained from the Hurricanes last year, and Brendon Lemieux - a must sign - the Blueshirts could finally be the team with a chip on its shoulder instead of the other way around. I firmly believe that when it comes to hits, it is far better to give than to receive.
Left Defense: It's no secret that the left side of this defense after Ryan Lindgren is a major liability. Both Marc Staal and Brendan Smith are over 30 and at least two seasons removed from being legit starting defensemen. Staal, in particular, was about as slow as a freight train stuck on the 7th Avenue Express. The good news is that both players are in the last year of their contracts, which means they will be gone after next season. The bad news is that their contracts - $5.7 and $4.35 million for Staal and Smith respectively - make it virtually impossible for them to be traded, even with the Rangers absorbing half of the load. So what to do?
Well call me a fool, but I believe in improving where you can. With the recent, shall we say, "issues" in Arizona, the Coyotes find themselves with no first round pick in either this or next year's draft. The Rangers could dangle the number one pick they got from the Carolina Hurricanes in the Brady Skjei deal for 22 year-old left-handed defensemen Jakob Chychrun. He would instantly become their best left-handed defenseman and coach David Quinn could pair him with Jacob Trouba to make a formidable tandem. And since he's already signed to a team-friendly $4.6 million for the next five seasons, he would help solidify the one glaring weakness this team had throughout the season.
If Chychrun isn't available, the Rangers should give St. Louis a call and inquire about Vince Dunn, another solid left-handed defenseman who may be too expensive for the Blues to keep. Dunn is an RFA, so Gorton would have to come to terms with him once the two teams agreed on a trade, but somewhere in the neighborhood of $4 to $5 million per over six years should suffice. Either player would instantly slide into the number one pairing and become a staple to this beleaguered defensive corps.
Lindgren and Adam Fox would remain the second defensive pairing, and Quinn could move Smith to the right side on the third pairing, where he's played before. Staal and Libor Hajek would then alternate on the left side. When K'Andre Miller is ready (2021-22) he would take over on the left side, and if there's no one inside the organization that can step in to play the right side, they could always look outside via a trade or signing. Don't forget, most of that dead cap space will be gone after next year.
Obviously, Deangelo would be the casualty in this scenario, but if that's what it takes to shore up your top two defensive lines, then so be it. Besides, Deangelo, apart from his scoring prowess, brings a lot of baggage with him, and he's not exactly Larry Robinson on the blue line, if you know what I mean.
I'm sure there are a few other minor issues Gorton will have to attend to, but these are the biggies, as I see them. If the Rangers solve these problems, they will be able to accelerate their rebuilding process and maybe even challenge for the Cup next season.
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