The other day I previewed the NHL Play-in round and gave each series a quick synopsis. But I wanted to take a more in-depth look at the Rangers - Hurricanes matchup, because, in my opinion, this is the most intriguing series in the opening round and I thought it deserved a closer look.
First off, I agree that the regular season shouldn't be the ultimate decider when choosing a winner. Yes, the Rangers won all four of their meetings with the Hurricanes, but two of those games were close and the first - in Rallye - could very well have been a rout for the Canes had it not been for Henrik Lundqvist practically standing on his head.
I also stipulate that this Rangers team, despite an impressive second half, is still learning how to win and was way too inconsistent for my tastes, especially on defense, where they ranked near the bottom of the league in goals allowed. Even if they do beat Carolina, the prospects for them making it past the next round are slim to none, especially if they wind up playing the Bruins.
That being said, two points separated these teams, and given that they have a decided edge at forward in goal, as well as in goal, I feel pretty optimistic about the Blueshirts chances in this series. Let's break it down.
Forward:
There's no doubt the Hurricanes' top line of Sebastian Aho, Teuvo Teravainen and Andrei Svechnikov is quite imposing. It's arguably one of the best in the league. The Rangers will have their hands full trying to contain them. But once you get past that line, the pickens are slim. Jordan Staal is their second line center and he scored a whopping 8 goals. Trade deadline acquisition Vincent Trocheck only netted 11, one with the Canes. And Justin Williams, yes that Justin Williams, is living on borrowed time at 38. Nothing about these guys puts the fear of God into me.
The Rangers boast two of the best forwards in the league in Artemi Panarin and Mika Zibanejad. The problem for opposing coaches is that they play on two different lines. Zibanejad scored an amazing 41 goals in just 57 regular season games. That's a higher goal per game percentage than Alex Ovechkin. He centers a line with Chris Kreider on the left and Pavel Buchnevich on the right. Panarin finished the season with 95 points and could be the best left wing in the game. Ryan Strome centers this line with Jesper Fast on the right side.
Even if you could make the argument that the Hurricanes back six forwards are better than the Rangers back six forwards, which I don't agree with, there's no denying the fact that up front at least, New York is loaded here. In fact, the Hurricanes have only three forwards with over 40 points, while the Rangers have five. Don't be shocked if David Quinn moves Brett Howden to left wing with Filip Chytil in the middle and Kappo Kakko on the right to get more offense on the third line. The kids, as they're called, are all 21 and under.
Edge: Rangers
Defense:
The Hurricanes were very stingy when it came to giving up goals. In fact, they were 6th in the league in goals allowed. And with a healthy Dougie Hamilton, this would've been a formidable group. Unfortunately for the Canes, he still hasn't fully recovered from the injury he sustained in January. If he's unable to play in this series, this will be a huge blow to Carolina.
The Rangers, on the other hand, were 24th in the league in goals allowed. They also gave up way too many shots on goal, often forcing their goaltenders to make incredible saves. But offensively, this is as good a group of defensemen as you'd want. Tony DeAngelo finished the season with 58 points, fourth best on the team, while rookie Adam Fox, a gift from the Hurricanes, had 42 points, good for seventh overall.
Edge: If Hamilton plays, slight edge to Hurricanes; if not, even.
Goal:
This isn't even close. The Hurricanes will go with Petr Mrazek, who is certainly capable, but hardly an elite net minder. How they didn't address this area during the season is beyond me. Instead of taking Brady Skjei and his $5.25 million contract off the Rangers hands, they should've inquired about either Henrik Lundqvist or Alexandar Georgiev. Either would've been a vast improvement over Mrazek.
The Rangers are the only team in the tournament to boast three number one goalies on their roster, one of which won't even dress in Toronto. Expect Igor Shesterkin to start. All he did was go 10-2 with a 2.52 goals against average. If he falters, Lundqvist is waiting in the wings. As I said, this isn't even close.
Edge: Rangers by a ton.
Intangibles:
The Hurricanes went to the conference finals last year and have the edge over the Rangers in experience, but the Bueshirts have the youth and explosiveness to overcome that. That makes them a very dangerous playoff team.
Edge: Rangers.
Coaching:
Both Rod Brind'Armour and David Quinn are second year coaches, but Brind'Armour has more relevant experience having coached his team deep into last year's playoffs, not to mention having spent 10 seasons as a player with Carolina. Both are excellent at getting their respective teams ready to play.
Edge: Even.
Based on the above, the Rangers have the clear advantage in this series. They're deeper than the Hurricanes at every position and they're more explosive, which after a long hiatus will benefit them greatly in a short series.
Rangers in four.
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