2025 Giants and NFL Preview

Since the New York Giants won Super Bowl 46, they have had exactly three winning seasons (2012, 2016 and 2022). They've made the playoffs twice ('16 and '22), and won once ('22 against the Minnesota Vikings in the Wild Card round). Over the last fourteen years, this fanbase has gone from hope to despair, to hope, and finally back to despair. If there was such a thing as PTSD for football fans, Giants fans would be first in line at the clinic.

Face it: it's been a vicious cycle for the Big Blue faithful. You get your hopes up, only to have them dashed. Then when you finally write them off, they surprise you by having a good season. You think we'd learn our lesson, but, alas, it's like that scene in The Godfather Three when Michael says, "Just when I thought I was out, they pull me back in." We couldn't quit this team even if we wanted to.

Looking back at my past predictions, it seems I have not been immune to this trap. After a successful 2016 season, I thought the Giants would be Super Bowl contenders in '17. They ended up being one of the worst teams in the league that year. After a surprising 2022 season, I again thought they'd be contenders the following year. Once more, I was wrong. Indeed, the only times I've been pleasantly surprised was when I managed my expectations for them.

Which leads me to 2025. After an abysmal 2024, in which they went 3-14, the Giants had their best offseason in years. They improved their secondary by signing Paulson Adebo; they totally revamped their quarterback position by signing Russell Wilson and Jameis Winston; they selected what many thought was the best player in the NFL Draft in Abdul Carter; they then traded back into the first round and got the quarterback of their future in Jaxson Dart; and in that same draft they added depth at running back, tight end and the offensive line. By any objective metric, this is a better and deeper roster than last year's.

So what does that mean for the Giants? Well, for starters, it means they won't suck this year. And, trust me, after enduring the last two hellish seasons, that's no small feat. But while not sucking is nice, it might not make much difference in the standings. That's because, as I wrote in an earlier piece, New York's schedule is brutal. Giants opponents had a .574 winning percentage in 2024; by comparison, the Super Bowl champ Philadelphia Eagles opponents had a .561 winning percentage last season. As Mike Francesa said on his podcast, "The Giants could play 40 percent better this year in every aspect and win five games."

While I'm not as pessimistic as Mike, I'm also not going to make the same mistake I made the last two years by overestimating their chances. The Giants had an outstanding preseason going 3-0, but the real season starts September 7. Any honest evaluation of this team's prospects must be realistic.

Ironically, last year I predicted the Jints would go 7-10; this year, I'm predicting the same record for them. That's because I believe this is the best front seven the Giants have had since their Super Bowl days; Wilson is considerably better than Daniel Jones; and they have speed at the wide receiver position with Malik Nabers on the verge of stardom. And if that isn't enough, Brian Daboll is coaching for his job. Another 3 or 4 win season, and he's gone. You can bet the ranch John Mara made that clear to him seconds after the conclusion of last year's train wreck.

As to where they finish in the NFC East, thanks to Jerry Jones giving away Micah Parsons to Green Bay, third place is not out of the question. But if I were a betting man, I'd say fourth, just to play it safe.

Below are my predictions for the 2025 NFL standings and postseason.

NFC East:

Eagles

Commanders

Cowboys

Giants

NFC North:

Packers *

Lions

Vikings

Bears

NFC South:

Falcons

Buccaneers

Saints

Panthers 

NFC West:

49ers

Rams

Seahawks

Cardinals

AFC East:

Bills

Dolphins

Patriots

Jets

AFC North:

Ravens

Steelers

Bengals

Browns

AFC South:

Texans

Titans

Jaguars

Colts

AFC West:

Chiefs *

Chargers

Broncos

Raiders

* Number one seed

NFC Wild Cards:

Commanders

Rams

Lions

AFC Wild Cards:

Dolphins

Chargers

Broncos

NFC Championship game: 

Packers over the Eagles

AFC Championship game: 

Bills over the Chiefs

Super Bowl:

Packers over the Bills

From Despair to Hope

On August 15, the New York Mets were in the midst of the worst slump of their season. They had just lost 11-9 to the Milwaukee Brewers, their 14th loss in 16 games. They were 64-58, six games behind the first place Philadelphia Phillies, and only a half game in front of the Cincinnati Reds for the last Wild Card spot. The team that was two wins away from going to the World Series last season was in jeopardy of dropping out of the playoff picture altogether.

To be honest, with the preseason the New York Giants were having, I was pretty much done with baseball and looking forward to football season. I have a sneaky suspicion a lot of Mets fans were feeling the same way. No fanbase, except for maybe the Jets, has had more experience saying "Wait'll next year."

And then Nolan McLean took the mound at CitiField on August 16 and did something a Mets starter hadn't done since August 4: pitch at least five complete innings without surrendering an earned run. And unlike that early August game, which was a 7-6 loss to the Cleveland Guardians, this time around, the Mets prevailed 3-1. McLean went 5.1 innings, allowed 2 hits, 4 walks, no earned runs, and struck out 8. It was his first start in the majors and it could not have come at a better time for this beleaguered franchise.

So far, the 24 year old righty has started three games for the Amazins, and his stats are off the charts. In 20.1 innings, he is 3-0, with 21 strikeouts and a 0.89 earned run average. That is better than what Jacob deGrom, Dwight Gooden and Tom Seaver did in their first three starts. Last night, he threw eight shutout innings to help the Mets complete a three-game sweep of the Phillies to pull them to within four games of first place.

McLean's arrival has been a Godsend for the Mets. They are 8-3 in their last eleven, and have outscored their opponents 74-40. But even before he was brought up from Syracuse, there were signs that things were starting to turn around. Since August 12, New York's batting average with runners in scoring position is .388. Prior to that, it was .233.

Leading the way is Mark Vientos. After an impressive rookie campaign in which he hit .266 with 27 HRs and 71 RBIs, the third baseman was having a hellish second season, hitting just .234 with 7 HRs and 31 RBIs through July. But in August, he has rediscovered his swing and his swagger. He's hitting .297 with 6 HRs and 18 RBIs. He's tied with Francisco Lindor with an OPS of 1.000. Only Brett Baty - 1.002 - is higher. Juan Soto, the 765 million dollar man, is hitting .400 with an OPS of 1.156 with runners in scoring position since July 29. Even Tyrone Taylor is getting into the act. He's hitting .360 with an .OPS of .888 this month.

 

But with the starters continuing to struggle getting past the 5th inning, David Stearns has seen enough. He's calling up Jonah Tong from Syracuse, who will make his season debut Friday night against the Miami Marlins. Tong was 8-5 with a 1.59 ERA at Binghamton this season, and 2-0 with a 0.00 ERA at Syracuse. There are those in the organization who think his ceiling might be higher than McLean's. Meanwhile, Brandon Sproat, who's 7-6 with a 4.50 ERA at Syracuse, could be called up in September. The Mets haven't had three young starters with this much potential since the days of deGrom, Matt Harvey and Noah Syndergaard. Now you know why Stearns was reluctant to part with his top prospects at the trade deadline.

A revived offense that can hit in the clutch and averages seven runs per game; a revamped starting rotation that can go six or more innings; this was the way the Mets drew it up on the board before the year started. With 29 games remaining in the regular season, the Flushing Faithful finally have something they can look forward to in October.

Jaxson Dart is Making a Compelling Case to Be the Giants Starting QB

In 2004, everyone on Planet Earth knew that Eli Manning was the New York Giants quarterback of the future. Then GM Ernie Accorsi traded an '04 third round pick and a first and fifth rounder in '05, along with Philip Rivers, to the San Diego Chargers to get Peyton's younger brother. 

The plan was to let Eli sit and learn behind former Super Bowl winner Kurt Warner. And based on what we saw in the preseason, that plan certainly looked feasible. Eli put up respectable numbers - 24/49, 327, 0 over four games - but was hardly a show stopper. Indeed, head coach Tom Coughlin waited until week 10 before finally turning the reigns over to him.

Fast forward 21 years to the 2025 NFL Draft. Present GM Joe Schoen traded three picks to move back into the first round to select Jaxson Dart at number 25. The Giants believe strongly that Dart is their quarterback of the future. Like in '04, the plan is to let Dart sit and learn behind another former Super Bowl winner, Russell Wilson. 

Warner to Eli, Part Deux, right? There's just one not-so-small problem. Dart has thrown a monkey wrench into those plans. Through two preseason games, Dart is a combined 26/35 for 291 yards, 2 TDs and 0 INTs. His 117.7 passer rating is the best on the team, a full 45 points better than Wilson.

Dart has become THE football story of the preseason. Initially he was viewed as a mid second rounder that needed a lot of work to smooth out the rough edges. NFL.com gave him a 6.17 grade in their eval, listing him as a "good backup with the potential to develop into a starter."

That was no backup we saw Saturday night. Seven quarterbacks took the field at MetLife Stadium; four for the Giants and three for the Jets. Dart was better than all of them, and it wasn't even close. Head coach Brian Daboll has a real dilemma on his hands. On the one hand, it makes perfect sense to start the season with Wilson at the helm. Clearly someone at NFL headquarters has a sick sense of humor, because the Giants, coming off a 3-14 campaign in 2024, wound up with the toughest schedule of any team in the league this season. Throwing a promising young talent like Dart into that gauntlet could have disastrous consequences for the Giants. And if there's one thing this franchise can ill afford to do is fuck up another young quarterback. John Mara will skin both Daboll and Schoen alive if that happens.

On the other hand, while Wilson has been good, he's been on a downward trajectory since the 2020 season. At this point in his career, he is nothing more than a bridge to a successor. At least when the Giants signed Warner in '04, he was three years removed from his second Super Bowl appearance and led the league in passing yards with 4830 that season. Daboll, after two very disappointing years in which the fanbase was calling for his head, could hardly be blamed for wanting to roll the dice with the player he moved heaven and earth to land.

What to do? That is the question. If I were a betting man - and I'm not - I'd put my money on Wilson being the stater week one, with Dart as the backup. That means that Jameis Winston, whom Schoen signed to a two-year, $8 million guaranteed contract during the offseason, will likely be traded for a draft pick. No sense having an $8m asset on your books when you already have a bonafide starter waiting in the wings. And besides, the way Tommy DeVito has played this preseason, if he gets cut, he'll be picked up by another team quicker than you can say, "you want mashed potatoes with those cutlets?"

As for when Daboll makes the switch to Dart, I'm thinking week 10. That's because the first nine weeks of the schedule will be particularly daunting. Just take a gander at who the Giants play:

@ the Washington Commanders

@ the Dallas Cowboys

vs the Kansas City Chiefs

vs the L.A. Chargers

@ the New Orleans Saints

vs the Philadelphia Eagles

@ the Denver Broncos

@ the Philadelphia Eagles

vs the San Francisco 49ers

If they go 3-6 during that stretch, they'll be lucky. I've been a fan of the Giants since the dark days of Joe Pisarcik and John McVay. I've seen the football gods smile and frown on them. Trust me, they took a dump on the 50 yard line with this schedule. As much as I want to see Dart be the starting quarterback, I'd rather he not do it from inside a rubber room.

No, the sensible thing to do is let Wilson take his lumps as the starter in the first half. Then after week nine, thank him for his service, send him to the nearest triage unit, and have Dart close out the season.

If the Giants don't screw this up, they'll be in good shape for 2026 and beyond.

Of course when it comes to the Giants, "if" is a four-letter word. 

The Tragic Is Back!

Another series played, another series lost. That makes three series in a row that the New York Mets have lost, during which they've gone 1-8. Yesterday's near shut out at the hands of the Cleveland Guardians - they were literally two outs away from being no-hit - just underscores how futile their level of play has been since winning seven in a row.

Forgive me if this sounds familiar, but on June 12, the Mets record stood at 45-24. They were solidly in first place in the National League East, five and a half games up on the Philadelphia Phillies. They had just swept the Washington Nationals after having swept the Colorado Rockies. They were on a roll. The Flushing Faithful had visions of 1986 dancing in their heads. 

Since then, the Amazins have gone 18-28, and are now in second place, two and a half games behind the Phillies. Their team ERA, once the best in the majors at 2.87, is a second-worst 4.99 during this skid. Their team batting average has gone from .248 (12th) to .225 (24th). Francisco Lindor and Pete Alonso, who were unquestionably the two best offensive players on the team early in the year, are clearly struggling. In the month of July, Lindor and Alonso batted a woeful .206 and .141 respectively. Apart from a few games, Juan Soto, the 765 million dollar man, has yet to get untracked in his rookie campaign as a Met; of his 26 home runs this year, 20 have been solo shots.

If the season ended today, the Mets would face the Phillies in the Wild Card round as the visitors. The way they've played the last seven weeks, I wouldn't be surprised if they got swept.

This is not the same Mets team we saw last year. Last year, the Mets found ways to win games; this year, they're finding ways to lose them. Case in point, a game against the San Diego Padres in July. After the Mets took a 5-1 lead in the top of the 5th inning, courtesy of a Mark Vientos grand slam, Frankie Montas and Huascar Brazoban couldn't hold it. The Padres scored five runs in the bottom of the 5th and eventually won the game in the bottom of the 9th. The loss mirrored almost exactly another one in June against the Tampa Bay Rays at CitiField. Once again, the Mets jumped out to a 5-1 lead in the 5th; once again their bullpen couldn't hold it. In both instances, that loss was followed up by a prolonged losing streak.

Resiliency is a word that doesn't get used a lot in baseball; it's typically reserved for sports like football, basketball or hockey. That's because, as Earl Weaver once said, momentum is only as good as your next day's starter. Unfortunately for the Mets, their starting rotation has been neither resilient nor momentum stoppers. When they've needed a strong performance, they haven't gotten it. David Peterson has been the most consistent of a very weak lot, and his ERA over his last two starts is 4.50. The only bright spot has been the back end of the pen, where Ryan Helsley and Edwin Diaz have yet to give up an earned run in the month of August. But given how many times the Mets have taken a lead into the 8th or 9th innings over the last few weeks, that's not much of a consolation prize. 

I won't mince words. This team is in big trouble. They're not pitching, they're not fielding and they're not hitting, especially with runners in scoring position, where they continue to be near the bottom of the league. Their 18-28 record since June 13 is tied with the Atlanta Braves and the San Francisco Giants for the worst in baseball.

And with three upcoming games against a Milwaukee Brewers team that is 9-1 in their last 10, this skid has the potential to get considerably worse. The Mets are only three games ahead of the Cincinnati Reds for the last wild card spot in the National League. By Monday morning, they could conceivably be out of the playoffs. At the rate they're going, they will be lucky to finish the season above .500 let alone go to the World Series.

For a team with the second highest payroll in the majors at $339 million, that would represent the worst fail in franchise history.

Stearns Goes All In

Last season, David Stearns had a fairly conservative trade deadline. "No blockbuster moves," was how I described it. And who could blame him? While the Mets were tied for the last Wild Card spot, by no means were they a shoo-in for the playoffs. A year after they sold off Max Scherzer and Justin Verlander to restock their farm system, the last thing Steans wanted was to undo all that progress the organization had made for a team that might not be ready to win. So he hedged his bets, opting instead to add a few complimentary pieces.

There was no hedging this time around. The Mets were in first-place going into the trade deadline; their owner, Steve Cohen, coughed up $765 million during the offseason to sign Juan Soto to a 15 year deal; the expectations could not be higher for this team. Stearns knew there were holes that had to be filled, and fill them he did.

The Bullpen was the number one concern. In April, the Mets overall team ERA was 2.68; in May, it was 3.08; from June 1 to June 12, it was 2.60; but from June 13 to July 31, it ballooned to a season-high 4.94. The major reason for this increase was the bullpen. Put succinctly, it's been overworked. With the exception of Edwin Diaz and Reed Garrett (most nights), every reliever showed definite signs of fatigue. It had gotten so bad that every time Carlos Mendoza went to his pen he was playing Russian Roulette, only with six bullets instead of one. Clearly, the situation was untenable. Failure to act would've been tantamount to executive malpractice on Stearns' part.

So he went out and got one very good, and two exceptional arms. Gregory Soto was the first to arrive. A southpaw, Soto's specialty is dominating left-handed hitters, holding them to a .547 OPS. Righties, however, have an OPS of .726 against him, so Mendoza will have to be careful in how he utilizes him. 

Tyler Rogers and Ryan Helsley are both right-handers and were acquired within hours of each other. Rogers boasts a 1.80 ERA, while Helsley had 21 saves for the St. Louis Cardinals this season. Both pitchers should make ideal set-up men for Edwin Diaz, while Soto will primarily be used in the 6th or 7th innings.

Centerfield was the next concern. Let's face it: if there's a more automatic out in baseball than Tyrone Taylor, I haven't seen him. Initial reports had the Mets acquiring Luis Robert Jr from the Chicago White Sox, but when Chicago's asking price was too high, Stearns shifted gears and landed Cedric Mullins from the Baltimore Orioles. To be honest, Mullins is the better player. Going into last night's game against the Giants, Mullins slash line was 15 / 49 / .229 / .738, while Robert Jr's was 11 / 44 / .213 / .653. 

In Mullins, the Mets have an exceptional outfielder known for his glove and ability to hit the long ball. He will be a vast improvement over Taylor and allow Mendoza to keep Jeff McNeil at Second Base where he belongs. As for the lineup, since Stearns didn't have to part with any players on the roster, it just got longer. The only casualty was Luisangel Acuña, who was sent down to Syracuse to make room for Mullins. His defense and ability to steal bases will be sorely missed. 

The good news is that Stearns was able to add four very valuable pieces at the deadline without sacrificing any top prospects in the organization.  The only bad news was that he wasn't able to land a starter. While not nearly as troublesome as the bullpen, the starting rotation is, nonetheless, becoming a concern for Mendoza. David Peterson is the only starter who's been able to consistently pitch into the 7th inning. Clay Holmes, the converted closer the Mets stole from the Yankees during the offseason, hasn't gotten through the 6th inning since June 7, and lately has struggled to get through five. In his last outing, Frankie Montas was staked to a 5-1 lead going into the 5th inning and couldn't hold it. His ERA is as high as an attendee at a Grateful Dead concert.

It would've been nice to add someone like a Dylan Cease or Joe Ryan or Sandy Alcantra or Merrill Kelly to that rotation, but I suspect the price tag for those starters was more than Stearns was willing to pay. Indeed, it probably would've been more than what he paid for all three relievers. The logical choice was to fortify the bullpen and hope that Mendoza can somehow manage to get five innings out of his starters.

Last year, I gave Stearns a B+. This year, I'm giving him an A. With the exception of A.J. Preller of the San Diego Padres, no executive had a better trade deadline than Stearns. He identified two critical needs on the roster and he addressed both of them. No, he didn't get everything he wanted; spoiler alert: no general manager ever does. But what he did get should be enough for the Mets to win the National League East, and perhaps advance to their first World Series in ten years.

Lofty goals, to be sure, but as I wrote above, the expectations for this team could not be higher.