Time For the Polar Bear to Come Out of Hibernation

Beginning tonight, the New York Mets enter their most important stretch drive since 2015. With a record of 79-46, they currently sit in first place, one and a half games in front of the Atlanta Braves, who, since they got spanked in a five-game series against the Amazins' at CitiField, are 14-2 in their last 16 games.

Meanwhile, since that series, the Mets have gone 9-7 over their last 16, including a two-game sweep at the hands of the Bronx Bombers at Yankee Stadium. I'm sure I don't need to remind the reader what happened last year. August has habitually not been a kind month to the Mets.

The good news? The Mets schedule for the rest of the season isn't all that difficult. In fact, it's pretty damn good. After they host the Colorado Rockies for four games, the Dodgers come to town for three games. After that, the Mets don't play another team with a winning record until September 19, when they head to Milwaukee to play the Brewers. They then play another five games against losing teams before their last series with the Braves in Atlanta. They wrap up the season at home against the Nationals. All told, the combined won-loss record of these losing teams is 197-300. That's a winning percentage of .398. If the Mets can't make some hay with a schedule like that, they don't deserve to be in the postseason, much less advance in it. 

But here's the thing. Even if the Mets play .800 ball against those teams, that still might not be enough to beat out Atlanta for the division. That's because the Braves schedule is almost as good. In fact, the toughest part might be their upcoming three-game set against the Cardinals in St. Louis. As hot as the Braves have been, the Cardinals have been almost as hot. They're 17-5 in the month of August. So if you're the Mets, you're hoping St. Louis can win at least two out of three.

So what do the Mets have to do to right their ship?

It all comes down to the 800 pound gorilla in the room. Pete Alonso has been in a funk the last few weeks. The cleanup hitter has hit only one home run in his last twenty games and has only four for the month of August. That is simply not good enough. Almost as bad as his lack of power is the fact that he's falling into old habits by swinging at pitches out of the strike zone. He is particularly susceptible to pitches that are low and away. There isn't a pitcher in the majors who doesn't know how to pitch to Alonso and the more he continues to swing at those pitches, the longer he will be in a slump.

If Alonso is looking for a way out of his doldrums, he might want to start taking notes from Mark Canha. The left fielder has been on a tear of late; during the ten-game road trip, in which he played in nine, Canha hit .417, with ten hits - seven for extra bases - in twenty-four at bats. Three of those extra base hits were home runs. Think about it. Over his last nine games, Canha has hit only one less homer than Alonso has hit for the entire month.

The difference between the two players could not be more apparent. Canha, though not nearly the player Alonso is, is far more disciplined at the plate. He looks for his pitch and isn't afraid to take a strike if it's not the pitch he wants. Conversely, Alonso will often reach for a pitch that he knows is out of the strike zone. As a result, he either strikes out or grounds out. Every once in a while he manages to get just enough of the ball to get one by the infielders for a single, and he's even managed to draw the rare walk or two.

For a Mets team that isn't exactly blessed with an over abundance of power to begin with, that won't do. As good as Francisco Lindor and Daniel Vogelbach have been - and they have been solid, particularly Lindor who is having a career year both at the plate and in the field - without Alonso's bat, they have no chance at the division. The way this lineup works is that Alonso carries the bulk of the load; the rest of the hitters compliment him. If he becomes an easy out - like he has of late - then the whole team struggles to score runs, as they did in three of the four games in Atlanta and both games in the Bronx. In multiple situations during the road trip, Alonso came up with men in scoring position. Only twice - game three in Atlanta and game one in Philly - did he come through.

Something has to give. Either hitting coach Eric Chavez can somehow get through to him or manager Buck Showalter has to move him down in the lineup. With the Mets only two games up on the Braves in the loss column, they cannot afford to let his slump continue to plague the offense. Maybe batting fifth or sixth will take some of the pressure off Pete. One thing's for certain: the status quo is unacceptable. This isn't April or May, it's late summer and the heat is on.

Yes, the bullpen could be deeper, but it is what it is. Max Scherzer, Jacob deGrom and Chris Bassitt are about as automatic as any starters in the game. And when Carlos Carrasco comes back in late September, Buck will have himself one helluva starting rotation going into the playoffs. But the sixty-four thousand dollar question that remains to be answered is whether the Mets will go in as a division winner or a wildcard. Right now, it's 50 / 50 at best.

Look, all players - even the great ones - go through slumps from time to time. And without exception, all of them snap out of it. It's time for Pete Alonso to snap out of his slump and be the leader this team needs.

It's time for the polar bear to come out of hibernation.

Mets Put On a Clinic and School the Braves

Sometimes stats can be a little misleading, and sometimes they can nail it on the head. When it comes to the 2022 New York Mets, clearly it's a case of the latter. Don't believe me, just ask the Atlanta Braves, last year's World Series winner. In 12 games against the champs this season, the Amazins are 8-4, 4-1 in their last five. 

The Mets put on a clinic in these five games. They outscored Atlanta 31-22. Mets starters had a better ERA than Braves starters: 4.68 to 6.75, and that was with game-two starter Taijuan Walker getting lit up for eight runs in the first two innings. Even the Mets relievers - which I still contend is a concern that could undermine their postseason aspirations - were better than their Braves counterparts: 4.05 to 5.29; though I suspect a lot of that had to do with Edwin Diaz's three stellar appearances in which he didn't allow a run and struck out seven in 3 and 2/3 innings.

Bottom line, the Mets were simply the better team in this series. Their top stars outperformed the Braves top stars. They out hustled Atlanta on the base paths and played much better defense. The Mets made every big play there was to be made in this series; even the trade deadline acquisitions that Bill Eppler brought in made significant contributions. This team can hit, it can pitch and it can play defense. And with Jacob deGrom now back in the starting rotation and pitching as if he never left, they are going to frustrate opposing teams the rest of the way.

These aren't the 2021 Mets; not by a long shot. That team collapsed in August and wound up in third place with a record of 77-85. Not only aren't these Mets wilting, as Ethan Sears of The New York Post writes, they're getting better. At 70-39, they are tied with the hated Yankees for the second best record in major league baseball. Only the L.A. Dodgers have more wins. They are 12-2 in their last 14 games; they lead the Braves by six and a half games - seven in the loss column. And with the lowly Cincinnati Reds coming to town to begin a three-game set, the Mets are in excellent position to build on that lead.

There are many reasons for the success of this team. They are deeper than last year's team, that's for sure. Starling Marte and Mark Canha have been valuable additions and have vastly improved an outfield that was average at best last year. Chris Bassitt has been an excellent pitcher all season long and has a 2.52 ERA over his last eight starts. With deGrom and Scherzer serving as a one-two punch, he rounds out the best starting trio in the National League. Eduardo Escobar and Luis Guillorme make for an excellent platoon at third base, and Jeff McNeil has rediscovered his hitting stroke while playing a solid second base. After a woeful first year, Francisco Lindor has become the player the Mets were hoping he'd be when they acquired him from Cleveland. And as for Alonso, the Polar Bear, as he is affectionally known, is leading the National League in RBIs with 95.

But by far the biggest reason for the Mets success this season has been the re-emergence of Edwin Diaz as an elite relief pitcher. Since his arrival from Seattle, along with Robinson Cano, he has struggled to regain the form that made him the best closer in baseball in 2018. This year he's been lights out for the Mets, saving 26 of 28 save opportunities and posting a league-best 1.39 ERA. In a best of seven series, with Scherzer, deGrom and Bassitt starting and Diaz coming out of the pen, this team will be very tough to beat come October.

And there will be an October for this team. It isn't bravado, or cockiness. This team believes in itself, and with each passing game they are making believers out of skeptics. Even when they fell behind 8-0 in game two against Atlanta, they refused to give up. They scratched and clawed their way back into the game. And if Ronald Acuna doesn't rob Pete Alonso of a two-run homer, and if third-base coach Joey Cora doesn't foolishly challenge center fielder Michael Harris's arm with the bases loaded, the Mets might've swept all five games against the Braves. Think about that.

Credit Buck Showalter for the way in which this team comports itself both on and off the field. They play the game they way it's supposed to be played; the way it used to be played: executing both offensively and defensively. They extend at bats better than any team in baseball. Three of the five Atlanta starters never made it out of the fifth inning, that's how patient and disciplined the Mets hitters were at the plate. 

The fact is this team doesn't beat itself; it's one of the reasons why they haven't gone through a prolonged slump. The outfielders hit the cutoff man, the pitchers cover first base, ground balls are run out. Despite being in the middle of the pack in home runs, they are third overall in runs scored. That doesn't happen by accident. And to think, George Steinbrenner fired this man after the 1995 season.

Look, there's still a lot of baseball yet to be played; anything can happen. But for the Flushing faithful things are looking up.

Did Buck Showalter Just Tip His Hand?

It was Vince Lombardi who once famously said, "Winning isn't everything; it's the only thing." Of course, Lombardi lifted the phrase from Red Sanders, the legendary UCLA Bruins football coach. It might very well be the most quoted phrase in all of sports, right up there with, "The best defense is a good offense," which traces its roots all the way back to, if you can believe it, George Washington.

The bottom line is this: we celebrate the winners in this country and quickly forget the losers. If you don't believe me, recite, in order, all the teams that have LOST the Super Bowl - without looking it up. Go ahead, I'll wait.

Buck Showalter is quite aware of what happened last season. The Mets entered the month of August five games up on the Atlanta Braves in the NL East, only to fade like a cheap pair of jeans in the dog days of summer. Going into last night's game, the Amazins were up three and half games over the Braves - four in the loss column. Would this be a case of, to quote the late, great Yogi Berra, "deja vu all over again?" Buck was determined to do everything possible to ensure it wouldn't.

Which explains his decision to go with his closer Edwin Diaz to get the last six outs of the game when his set-up man Adam Ottavino could've pitched the 8th inning. He had allowed a run on two hits in the 7th, narrowing the Mets lead to 6-4. At one point, they were comfortably ahead 5-0. A Braves comeback in front of the hometown faithful was something that had to be avoided at all costs. Even if it meant Diaz would be unavailable for tonight's game. 

But Showalter's decision to have his closer pitch two innings might have inadvertently revealed something else about his thinking that should be far more worrisome to Mets fans. Apart from Diaz, there isn't a single relief pitcher he can trust to protect a lead.

Consider what happened in Washington. The Nationals scored a total of three earned runs in 18 and 2/3 innings against Max Scherzer, Jacob deGrom and Chris Bassitt. But against the bullpen, they scored nine earned runs in just 7 and 1/3 innings. And all of those runs, mind you, were scored after Juan Soto and Josh Bell were dealt to the San Diego Padres. That's right: against a lineup that had almost as many Triple A hitters as it did major league hitters, the vaunted Mets bullpen was lit up like a pinball machine. What do you suppose a team like the Braves would do to it?

Now you know why so many baseball analysts were scratching their heads when the Mets only added one reliever at the trade deadline. Seriously, if you think that the acquisition of Mychal Givens and the return of Trevor May from the IL is going to intimidate teams like the Braves, Dodger or Padres, you've taken one too many leaps off the Pepsi Porch. Yes, I know it's now called the Coca Cola corner, but Pepsi Porch just sounds better.

Here's the thing: Buck Showalter knows he has arguably the best starting rotation in baseball. He knows he has a pretty deep lineup capable of putting up a lot of runs. But even with all that, he also knows that this team will go only as far as Edwin Diaz takes it. And now, thanks to him tipping his hand last night, the entire National League knows it too.

Did the Mets Just Blow the NL East?

Are the Mets a better team today than they were before the trade deadline? Yes.

Are they as good as they could've been? Unfortunately no.

For the record, the moves Billy Eppler made were all solid pickups. J.D. Davis for Darin Ruf was a no-brainer. Davis has looked lost at the plate all season, while Ruf has been solid against lefties. He will platoon at DH with fellow trade acquisition Daniel Vogelbach, who has a pretty good average against righties. The addition of Mychal Givens to a beleaguered bullpen will come in handy in the dog days of August and September. And Tyler Naquin will provide much needed depth in the outfield. Gone are the days when Dominic Smith (.194) and Travis Jankowski (.164) were the only options available to Buck Showalter off the bench.

But here's the painful truth: Eppler failed to acquire the big bat this team desperately needs. Face it, once you get passed Starling Marte (.300, 11 HRs, 47 RBIs), Francisco Lindor (.261, 19 HRs, 74 RBIs) and Pete Alonso (.276, 27 HRs, 86 RBIs), there isn't one hitter in this lineup who puts the fear of God into an opposing pitcher. Mark Canha is a nice enough player with modest power; Jeff McNeil hits for a higher average but has even less power; and the Ruf / Vogelbach platoon is adequate at best. Luis Guillorme can't hit lefties and Eduardo Escobar can't hit righties. And whoever Showalter puts behind the plate is as close to an automatic out as there is in baseball. 

Look, I get it. The Mets weren't going to gut their farm system just to land Juan Soto. And even if they had been willing, no way the Nationals were going to trade him to a division rival. It's bad enough they have to see Max Scherzer staring back at them from the Mets dugout nineteen times during the season. Imagine the torment Soto could inflict upon them for the next decade and a half.

But even if Soto was nothing more than a pipe dream, it's hard to imagine Eppler couldn't have found someone better than Ruf, Vogelbach or Naquin out there. The Cubs were looking to move both Willson Contreras and Ian Happ. Contreras is a catcher who has 14 homers on the season, and when he's not behind the plate can easily DH, while Happ is a switch-hitter who can play both left field and third base. Who would you rather see batting behind Alonso? Contreras or a platoon of Ruf and Vogelbach?

I know it takes two to tango, and given that the Cubs were unable to find a trade partner for either Contreras or Happ, we can assume that their demands were too high. But for a fanbase that's grown accustomed to the Mets playing second fiddle in this town, it would've been nice to see them go all in, even if Eppler had to overpay. The 64 wins they had going into August represented the most wins the franchise has had at this point in the season since that magical year of 1986. It would be nothing short of gross negligence if this opportunity is wasted.

With the return of Jake deGrom, the Mets have arguably the best starting rotation in all of baseball. But after Edwin Diaz and Adam Ottavino, their bullpen is still too thin. And their lineup, with the exception of the aforementioned Marte, Lindor and Alonso, isn't nearly as potent as the Braves, Dodgers or Padres, who after acquiring Soto, Josh Bell and Brandon Drury are now a legit threat to win the World Series.

Are they good enough to make the postseason? Probably. But their odds of winning the division and avoiding the wildcard round took a serious hit this week.