Steve Cohen Finally Reels in a Big Fish

Look, did the Mets overpay for Max Scherzer? In a word, yes. 

Why? Because they're the Mets, that's why. They had to beat out the Dodgers who, truth be told, are a lot closer to winning a World Series than the Flushing Orange and Blue. So when Los Angeles offered Scherzer $40 million per year, Steve Cohen had to up the ante to $43.3 mill to close the deal.

Was he worth it? That depends on whether Cohen's offseason spending splurge is over or whether it's just getting started. Because even with a starting rotation that features Jacob deGrom and Scherzer at the top, there are still plenty of question marks for this organization.

For starters, who's going to be the closer? Edwin Diaz has one more year left on his contract and has yet to establish himself as a reliable closer with this team. At times he's been light's out; at others he's been lit up like a Christmas tree. No matter how great your starting rotation is, if your bullpen can't protect the lead, you're not going to be successful. And it's not just Diaz that is a cause of concern. The middle relievers by the end of the season had clearly been overworked. If the starters can't pitch into at least the 7th inning, the Mets are going to find themselves in the same predicament as last season.

And speaking of starters, the Mets still don't know what they can expect from Carlos Carrasco, Taijuan Walker and David Peterson. Carrasco was on the IL most of last season, and when he wasn't he was hardly what you would call major league caliber. Walker had an outstanding first half of the season, then crashed and burned the second half. And Peterson is still a work in progress. With Noah Syndergaard defecting to the Los Angeles Angels for $23 mill and Marcus Stroman practically out the door himself, this is very top heavy rotation. And keep in mind, we still don't know if the physical ailments that plagued deGrom most of last season will return in 2022. If they do, Scherzer might be the only legit starter on this staff.

Starling Marte, Eduardo Escobar and Mark Canha are all quality signings and represent upgrades over the players the Mets had at those positions, but none are what could be considered elite. Marte was once viewed as one of the best center fielders in the game not that long ago. And while his numbers have tailed off a bit since his days with the Pittsburgh Pirates, he managed to hit 12 homers, drive in 55 runs and bat over .300 with the Miami Marlins and the Oakland A's last season. If he can replicate that performance this season in Queens, the Mets will be very happy with him. 

With Javier Baez signing with the Detroit Tigers, second base is now up for grabs. Do the Mets go with a tandem of Jeff McNeil and Robinson Cano, or do they buy out Cano's contract, trade McNeil and sign a replacement? And with Michael Conforto turning down their qualifying offer to become a free agent, the Mets will also need a new right fielder. In other words, don't put that check book away just yet, Stevie.

And we still don't know who's going to manage this team. New GM Billy Eppler, who in his five years with the Angels did not have a single winning season, will be tasked with finding someone who can take this team to the next level. Good luck with that. Quality managers don't grow on trees.

So, yes, the Scherzer signing was huge and well worth it. Kudos to Cohen for ponying up the big bucks. But there's a lot more work that needs to be done before this team is ready to contend for the National League East, let alone the World Series.

Evaluating Chytil is the Key to Rangers' Future Success

Some thoughts on the news that Sammy Blais will miss the rest of the season with a torn ACL due to a collision with P.K. Subban, and where the Rangers go from here.

One, it's time the NHL finally dealt with this man. This is not the first time Subban has injured someone by slew footing them. Ryan Reeves was almost seriously injured during the pre-season when Subban stuck out his leg, causing Reeves's right leg to buckle and landing him on his ass. And while technically, Subban did not slew foot Blais, he definitely stuck out his leg and caused Blais to go down awkwardly. A simple fine won't be sufficient; the league must suspend him in order to send a clear message.

Two, while Blais was having a good season, four assists in 14 games is hardly what I would call indispensable. It's amusing to see the same people who publicly ripped Chris Drury a new one for only getting Blais in return for Pavel Buchnevich now proclaiming Blais as the second coming of Stephane Matteau. At best, he's a third or fourth line winger. The fact that he was on the first line says more about the team's lack of depth at right wing than it does about Blais' bonafides.

Three, having said all that, it was a relief to see that Gerard Gallant resisted the urge to replace Blais with Filip Chytil on this line. While my first choice would've been to move Chris Kreider over to right wing - where he's scored all but 3 of his team-leading 12 goals - and promote Alexis Lafreniere to the first line, I can live with Barclay Goodrow there for now. He does have 7 points so far this season and he's played alongside Kreider before; it was Goodrow's pass from center ice that set up Kreider's goal in Seattle earlier in the season. And I must admit, having Lafreniere on the third line with Chytil and Julien Gauthier, who scored his first goal of the season last night against the Habs, does make this team deeper and harder to play against.

But the biggest reason for keeping Chytil at center has more to do with next season than it does this season. As I've mentioned before, the Rangers have a salary cap problem that is going to profoundly impact the roster for the next several years. They may have $7 million in available cap space now, but once the season is over, all that goes out the window. Both Adam Fox and Mika Zibanejad's contract extension's kick in next season. Between the two, the Blueshirts will have to pony up over $11 million in additional salary. 

But they're not out of the woods just yet. That's because Ryan Strome, who's currently making $4.5 million, is a UFA. When you factor in that Kaapo Kakko and Alexandar Georgiev are both RFAs, the total hit to sign all could well exceed $15 million. Even if the team decides to let Georgiev walk, they still have to come up with a suitable backup goalie, and that won't be cheap. Neither Tyler Wall nor Keith Kinkaid seem like viable options - Kinkaid looked average at best in his brief stint with the Rangers last season - so Chris Drury will most likely have to look outside the organization to find one.

Clearly some tough decisions are going to have to be made if this franchise is to make the jump from playoff contender to Cup contender. While Strome is having another solid season anchoring the second line with Artemi Panarin on the left and Kakko on the right, unless Drury can convince him to re-sign for the same salary, he will be gone next year.

And that means it is imperative that Gallant find out whether Chytil can handle the 2C position. Before he got hurt in a collision with Blais a week ago, Chytil had a goal and an assist in the game at Edmonton. Last night, he put on a burst of speed, blew past the Montreal defense and hit the goal post. His forecheck helped set up Gauthier's goal in the 3rd period. When he's been healthy, he has shown signs of promise.

And that's the rub for Chytil. He has proven to be brittle. Last year he missed 14 games due to injury. Assuming he has what it takes to be the second-line center, can management entrust him with the duties knowing he's one hit away from being out for an extended period of time?

Now you know why Drury signed Goodrow instead of Blake Coleman. Goodrow has played both center and wing throughout his career and is comfortable playing either. If push comes to shove, Drury can always trade Chytil for a bruising winger. Then maybe Strome re-ups for, say, $5.5 million, and Goodrow centers the third line. Not ideal, but it works (see chart below).

But none of that can happen until a full assessment is made of Chytil. He is the key to any future success this team has. If he develops into a solid 2C, then Strome is gone; if he doesn't, Drury will likely trade him and do his best to retain Strome.

It's all on Gallant's shoulders. He has the unenviable task of determining who plays and where. We know David Quinn wasn't up to the challenge, which is one of the reasons why he's no longer behind the bench. Gallant has gotten teams with less talent into the postseason. The question that begs to be answered is whether he can navigate a team coming out of a rebuild into the postseason while not sabotaging its still uncertain and fragile future.

Season	2022-23
NHL CAP	$82,500,000.00
Forwards
Panarin	$11,642,857.00
Zibanejad	$8,500,000.00
Kreider	$6,500,000.00
Strome	$5,500,000.00
Goodrow	$3,641,667.00
Kakko	$2,300,000.00
Reaves	$1,750,000.00
Blais	$1,500,000.00
Lafreiniere	$925,000.00
Cuylle	$850,833.00
Gauthier	$775,000.00
Hunt	$762,500.00
Rooney	$750,000.00

Total	$45,397,857.00
Defensemen
Fox	$9,500,000.00
Trouba	$8,000,000.00
Lindgren	$3,000,000.00
Nemeth	$2,500,000.00
Lundkvist	$925,000.00
Miller	$925,000.00
Tinordi	$900,000.00

Total	$25,750,000.00
Goalies
Backup	$1,000,000.00
Shesterkin	$5,666,667.00

Total	$6,666,667.00
Buyouts
Girardi	$1,111,111.00
Shattenkirk	$1,433,333.00
DeAngelo	$883,334.00

Total	$3,427,778.00
Total Cap Hit	$81,242,302.00
CAP SPACE	$1,257,698.00

The Kids Are Alright

Two games do not a season make, I realize. But they do represent a rather significant improvement and, hopefully, a turning point for a team that was relying way too much on the heroics of its goaltender Igor Shesterkin to bail them out.

The statistics don't lie. A 5-3 win over the Columbus Blue Jackets, followed by a 4-3 shootout win over the New Jersey Devils, in which the New York Rangers not only won more face-offs, they out shot, out hit and out scored their opponents, is about as one eighty a turnaround as you can expect. 

More significant, the play at even strength, the one metric by which successful teams are measured, has improved considerably. Of the 12 goals they scored over the last three games, all but 3 came at either 5x5 or 4x4. That comes out to an average 3 even-strength goals per game. Extrapolated over the course of an entire season, that would tie them with the Florida Panthers for the league lead.

But last night's thrilling win over the Devils was more than just the second consecutive strong showing by a group of players looking to deliver on the promise of a four-year rebuild that was seriously in doubt; it was the coming out party for one Kaapo Kakko, the second overall pick of the 2019 Draft, who had gone ten games without scoring a single point. The Finnish winger set up fellow milk carton contestant Alexis Lafreniere's fourth goal of the season in the second period to put the Rangers ahead 2-1. And in the third period, his first goal of the season, off a beautiful give and go with Ryan Strome, allowed his team to regain the lead before the Devils tied it late. He would later score on a backhander in the shootout.

The goals were sorely needed. Let's face it, as brilliant as Adam Fox, Chris Kreider, Artemi Panarin and, to a lesser extent, Mika Zibanejad have been throughout the season, they cannot continue to carry the load all by themselves. Sooner or later, Kakko and Lafrenirere have to step up and start pulling their weight. They don't have to be stars, but they can't continue to be missing in action game in and game out. Not if this team is going to succeed.

Fortunately, that won't be the case here. Seriously, did anybody really believe for a moment that Kakko was going to go the entire season without scoring a single goal? Or that Lafreniere was going to score only 15 goals? The Twitter mob notwithstanding, these two players simply have too much talent. My advice for the restless and the weary is to chill and stop comparing them with other first rounders. It'll only give you a headache and it won't accomplish a damn thing.

It's easy to forget that Kaapo Kakko and Alexis Lafreniere are only 20 years old; K'Andre Miller and Nils Lundkvist are barely 21. Even with all the changes Chris Drury made during the off season, this is still a very young team. Despite their early-season struggles, they are in third place in the Metropolitan Division, one point behind the Carolina Hurricanes and Washington Capitals, and two points behind the league-leading Panthers. Imagine where this team will be when they start clicking on all cylinders.

Gerard Gallant finally appears to be getting through to his troops, and assuming Sammy Blais isn't too badly injured after his collision with P.K. - slew foot - Subban, Rangers fans might be in store for a very exciting and rewarding season.

I, for one, am pumped.

Rangers Lock Up Their Fox

For once the Twitter universe was in complete agreement. News that the New York Rangers have re-signed their Norris trophy-winning defenseman Adam Fox to a seven year extension with a $9.5 million AAV was met with widespread approval. Even the Debbie Downers who expressed their skepticism about the Mike Zibanejad extension three weeks ago took the night off on this one. For once, all was right with the world.

Let's be honest. The moment the Bruins inked Charlie McAvoy to an eight-year, $9.5 million contract, you knew Fox was going to get the same money. The only question was why didn't Chris Drury lock him up for the full eight years? He certainly had the option to do so if he wanted. Also, while the terms have not yet been disclosed, you can bet the ranch Fox got a no move clause for the full duration. Meaning he isn't going anywhere.

The significance of this signing cannot be overstated. In an earlier piece, I wrote that Artemi Panarin was the best player on this team, but that in a couple of years, Fox might supplant him. Turns out I was only off by about two years. Adam Fox, right now, IS the best player on this team and will likely be so for the foreseeable future. Indeed, both he and Igor Shesterkin are almost entirely responsible for the Rangers being tied for second place in the Metropolitan division going into tonight's game against Vancouver instead of in dead last. Between Shesterkin's acrobatics in net and Fox's clutch scoring, a team that still hasn't gotten comfortable with coach Gerard Gallant's system is quickly becoming one of the best stories of the season.

But while Drury locked up yet another vital component of his core, he will have his work cut out for him next season. That's because Ryan Strome will be a UFA. The second-line center is currently making $4.5 million and when he hits the open market next summer he will fetch in the neighborhood of $6 to $7 million per year. According to Capfriendly, when you account for the Fox and Zibanejad signings and the $3.4 million in dead cap space, the Rangers have a total of $70.8 million committed for 2022-23 with only 16 players under contract. The NHL allows each team up to 23 players.

Starting to see the problem? Even if, as expected, the league increases the salary cap to $82.5 million, that leaves Drury with approximately $11.6 million to sign seven players. And that's not counting the bonus cushion penalty that teams are required to set aside for players with ELCs that have bonus provisions. For instance, this season, the Rangers are setting aside $1.4 million. Assuming that next year's cushion is the same, the real number for Drury will be closer to $10.2 million. Good luck squeezing seven players into $10.2 million.

Bottom line, Strome is gone. Whether he's dealt at the trade deadline or he walks during the summer, the Rangers simply cannot afford to keep him. That's why it is imperative that this team find out whether Filip Chytil can hack it as a number two center. I've been saying for weeks that Galant needs to pair him with Alex Lafreniere and Kaapo Kakko to give him the ice time he needs to display his talents. David Quinn tried this combination a few times last season with mixed results. If Gallant can't get him to the next level, Drury will have to find a suitable replacement for both him and Strome that is affordable. 

As for the balance of the roster, Drury can sign Kakko to a two-year bridge deal similar to the one Pavel Buchnevich got two years ago. $3.25 million is more than fair for a player that is still developing into the second overall pick of 2019. Maybe Sammy Blais re-ups for $1.5 million; the same for Kevin Rooney at $750,000. Drury has several goalies in Hartford that can take Alexandar Georgiev's place as a backup for under a mill. With a little creativity, the Rangers should be able to field a team that can contend while still remaining under the cap. Once the dead cap comes off the books in '23, Drury should have enough to re-sign Lafreniere in two years.

Things will be tight but manageable for the next couple of seasons. But this organization is headed in the right direction. Rangers fans who've been more than patient during this rebuild will soon be rewarded for their loyalty. Think about it. They have two of the top ten forwards in the league, a top five defenseman who's just entering the prime of his career, and an elite goalie that might one day win the Vezina trophy. 

How many teams can say that?