Rangers Glass Half Empty

This time there was no miracle comeback. This time there were no acrobatic saves. The lucky and resilient Rangers were neither last night against a Calgary Flames team that out checked, out hustled and, in the end, outscored them. The final score was 5-1, and like the season opener in Washington, it was a fair representation of a team that is still finding it difficult acclimating to the system their coach wants them to play.

After a four-game road winning streak that saw them play maybe four periods of spirited hockey, last night's performance was a dud, to say the least. Time after time, the Rangers tried to carry the puck out of their zone; time after time, the Flames prevented them from doing so. When they did manage to gain the offensive zone, their passes were often intercepted and led to scoring chances the other way. 

Chris Tanev had one of those chances when the Rangers got caught up ice on a 3 on 2. The Calgary defenseman scored with 70 seconds left in the first period. Another came courtesy of a giveaway by Patrik Nemeth behind his own net early in the second and was converted by Andrew Mangiapane. And just like that it was 2-0 Flames. In all, they committed twenty giveaways, nine in the opening period.

We've seen this movie before. The Caps, the Stars, the Senators and now the Flames. The common theme in all four games has been a lackluster performance leading to deficits that make it difficult to overcome. Seriously, if you had the Rangers scoring three goals in a span of 3:20 in Ottawa you're either a liar or clairvoyant. Regardless, this is no way for a team to play if it has any postseason aspirations.

Consider this: not one of the seven teams the Rangers have played this season is considered a legit Cup contender. I know there are fans in Washington and Toronto who might beg to differ. Let them. If either the Caps or Maple Leafs makes it to the finals, I'll start buying lotto tickets. Like I wrote in my last piece, if this is how they're going to play against teams that are beatable, imagine what's going to happen to them when they play against the Bruins, the Hurricanes, or, gulp, the Islanders.

They haven't scored more than three goals in a game all season. Their power play is an anemic 3 for 26. Apart from the goaltending, the lone bright spot has been their penalty kill, which had successfully killed off 14 straight power plays until Mangiapane scored on a five on four at 19:55 of the third period.

Gerard Gallant hinted they might have been tired after a long road trip. Excuses won't cut it. They weren't tired out there, they were sloppy; sloppy and stubborn. They still think they can carry the puck into the zone and set up shop like it's the '80s or something. This reluctance to dump the puck in the corner and forecheck is mind numbing. Even more frustrating is the unwillingness to put bodies in front of the opponents net. Indeed, their only goal came as a result of Kevin Rooney and Dryden Hunt screening the Calgary goaltender with Hunt pouncing on the rebound. See how simple that was?

They got Ryan Strome back last night. He was one of the few bright spots on the ice, winning 11 of 12 face-offs and setting up Artemi Panarin for a breakaway that was stopped. Kaapo Kakko makes his return from an upper-body injury Friday when they host the Columbus Blue Jackets, another beatable team. After that, they embark on a road trip out west.

They're 4-2-1. They could easily be 2-4-1. Barring a trade or serious injury, this is the team that will determine whether the rebuild started by Jeff Gorton four years ago, and tweaked by Chris Drury this summer, was successful or not. Are the Rangers a contender or a pretender? This is the question that remains to be answered. I'm still bullish on the former, but then I've been known to be wrong.

Just take a look at my blog posts.

Bread Man and Circuses in Toronto

Any doubts that Igor Shesterkin is an elite goaltender and worth every penny of the $5.6 million the New York Rangers are paying him were, hopefully, put to rest after the performance he displayed in Toronto Monday night. The man put on a clinic that invoked memories of his predecessor, Henrik Lundqvist. In all, Shesterkin stopped 40 of 41 shots, including one while he was 20 feet out of his crease in overtime.

I won't mince words here. The Rangers stole two points; or rather their goaltender stole two points. I haven't seen a game this lopsided in years. The Blueshirts were outshot, out chanced and out hustled by a Maple Leafs team that looked more like the '76 Canadiens than the team that choked in the first round of the playoffs last season. The only stat they managed to win was hits, and that was because for the vast majority of the game they were chasing the puck around the rink like a cat chasing a laser pointer.

Indeed, the winning goal by Artemi Panarin was set up because Mika Zibanejad had the good sense to go forward on the draw rather than back and somehow managed to get the puck to the Bread Man, who wristed it past Jack Campbell. It was one of only 13 face-offs the Rangers won in the game, and it was Panarin's first goal of the season. Prior to that, the all-star winger was so invisible there were milk cartons in Manhattan with his picture on it. 

Look, I know they're shorthanded. Both Ryan Strome and Kaapo Kakko are out of the lineup. The former is due back Thursday against the Predators; the latter probably won't be back for a while. But shorthanded or not, there was no excuse for this performance. Apart from Shesterkin's brilliance in net, Zibanejad, Chris Kreider and Adam Fox are the only skaters on this team pulling their weight.

That is not nearly enough for a team looking to take the next step to playoff contention. In their first four games, the Rangers have played exactly one excellent period of hockey: the second period against the Dallas Stars in game two. They got blasted by the Caps in the season opener, lost in OT to the Stars in their home opener, were good enough to beat a Montreal team few if any expect to make the postseason, and, as I mentioned above, stole two points from Toronto. Just imagine what's going to happen to them when they start playing the elite teams in this conference like the Islanders, Bruins, Panthers, Hurricanes and Lightning. And don't forget Western conference teams like the Avalanche and the Golden Knights. Shesterkin is going to be shellshocked by the All Star break.

Mollie Walker of the New York Post is right. The Rangers can't expect their goalie to continuously bail them out every night. "It's unsustainable." For the team to win it has to do more than just hit. It has to be able to carry the play. The Islanders hit, but they forecheck the hell out of their opponents. It's the number one reason why they've made it to the third round of the playoffs two years in a row and why they were five wins away from winning the Stanley Cup last season.

Adjustments are clearly needed, and Gerard Gallant may have stumbled upon one by accident. He put Panarin and Zibanejad together on the same line half way through the third period and the two generated some scoring chances, including the overtime winner. Until this team gets comfortable with its new faces and its new system, it would behoove Gallant to at least have one cohesive line out there that opponents actually fear. Right now, no one fears this team.

Another thing he can do when Strome and Kakko come back is to elevate Filip Chytil to the second line centering Alex LaFreniere and Kakko. David Quinn tried this combination a few times with mixed results. If the Rangers are going to go anywhere this year they have to figure out whether these three players can handle the load. The sooner they find that out the better. Strome can center the third line. Unless the NHL substantially increases its salary cap - don't hold your breath - Strome is likely going to be dealt at the trade deadline or walk after the season. They simply can't afford to keep him, especially if, as expected, Fox re-signs in the $9 million neighborhood.

And finally, if this team is going to establish a real physical presence, Gallant has to keep Sammy Blais and Barclay Goodrow on the same line. Blais reminds me a little bit of Blake Coleman the way he pursues the puck and finishes his checks. The two could be an effective tandem, but only if they play together.

Bottom line? While it's too early to panic, it's not too early to be alarmed. The problems that are besetting this team, if not addressed soon, threaten to undermine what was labeled as a breakout season.

Did the Rangers Wait Too Long to Re-Sign Adam Fox?

By now you've heard that the Boston Bruins have re-signed their all-star defenseman Charlie McAvoy to an eight-year, $76 million dollar contract extension beginning in 2022-23. For those who didn't bring their calculators with them, that's $9.5 million per year. Or, as we say in New York, "a fuckin' lotta dough."

Just where the Bruins, who are $1.2 million under the cap this season, intend to get that "dough" remains a mystery, especially since Patrice Bergeron, their all-star center, is currently making $6.875 and will be a UFA next summer. But that's their problem.

They say timing is everything. Lost in all the hoopla of the Rangers signing Mika Zibanejad to an eight year, $8.5 million AAV contract is the fact that they have a plethora of pending contracts that will have to be either re-upped or moved over the next couple of seasons. And the biggest of those is Adam Fox, who is in the last year of an entry level contract worth $925,000 per.

With Cale Makar re-signing in Colorado for $9 million per over the summer, the market for defensemen who can score is pretty much set. By waiting as long as they did, the Rangers may have boxed themselves into a corner with their Norris-trophy winner. After the Zibanejad signing, there was some optimism that Chris Drury might be able to persuade Fox to agree to a similar, team-friendly contract. The McAvoy signing pretty much tosses that scenario out the window. At this point, Drury will be lucky if he can get Fox to accept $9 million per. Shit, if Seth Jones is worth $9.5 million, how much is Fox worth?

Welcome to life in the flat salary cap era, or as it's better known in the NHL, the Hunger Games. The Rangers, who for the last three seasons have "enjoyed" the benefits of being among the youngest teams in the league, are about to find out what happens when that youth grows up. In addition to Fox, Kaapo Kakko, Alexis Lafreniere and K'Andre Miller will all see their ELCs expire over the next two years, and barring something unforeseen, all will be due substantial pay raises. Maybe Vitali Kravtsov did them a solid by going AWOL after all. If they can move him for a 2nd rounder or a serviceable forward with a reasonable cap hit, that'll be one less headache for Drury to deal with next summer.

But getting back to Fox, did you see the way he played Thursday night? It was as if the puck was glued to his stick. If Wayne Gretzky had been a defenseman instead of a center, he would've looked just like Fox. Drury is going to have to bite the bullet here. There are some contracts you don't fuck around with. If he's this good at 23, imagine what he's going to look like two or three years from now. 

Get him signed. Get him signed now! If it takes $9.5 mill per to get it done, then that's what it takes. Fuck it, if it takes $10 mill, do it. In five years, it'll be a bargain. Think about it: right now, Artemi Panarin is the best player on this team. Who knows, in a couple of seasons, Fox might supplant him. He's that good.

I know there are risks involved in assembling a top heavy roster. Just ask the Toronto Maple Leafs and the Edmonton Oilers. Both teams have a substantial portion of their salary cap tied up in just a few players. And as a result, both have had a hard time acquiring the depth needed to make a serious run at the Cup. I won't lie to you, that fate could await the Rangers.

But the greater risk, in my opinion, would be letting a generational player like Fox walk because you want the "freedom" to pursue lesser players that, and let's be honest, can be had in any given off season. Yes, the Tampa Bay Lightning would not have won either of their two Stanley Cups if they didn't have foot soldiers like Barclay Goodrow and Blake Coleman in the trenches; but they would never have gotten close if they didn't have world-class talent like Nikita Kucherov and Brayden Point. You need both types of players to win a championship these days.

Adam Fox is the best defenseman the Rangers have had since the days of Brian Leetch. Hell, he might even be better. Chris Drury must make every effort to ensure he never plays for another organization.

Kravtsov Debacle Is a Self Inflected Wound for Rangers

Of all the human vices out there, pride and stubbornness might be the most costly. Both basically prevent people from admitting mistakes, some of which are beauts.

In the Spring of 2018, the New York Rangers traded Ryan McDonagh and J.T. Miller to the Tampa Bay Lightning for defenseman Libor Hajek, center Brett Howden, a first-round pick in 2018, a conditional second-round pick in 2019 and forward Vladislav Namestnikov. It was the start of the team's rebuild under then GM Jeff Gorton, and this trade was suppose to be the centerpiece of it. 

Three years later, it's obvious that the trade was a bust. Yes, the Rangers used the first round pick they got to select Nils Lundkvist, the talented Swedish defenseman who has a chance to become an elite player in the NHL. But the jury is still out on second rounder Karl Henricksson, who was just sent down to Hartford in September. Hajek is the last of the three players still with the team, the other two having been dealt.

For the better part of the last two years, Hajek has struggled to crack the Rangers lineup. At times he has looked good, at others he has not. As of now, he isn't even in the top ten in the organizational depth chart. Chris Drury would like to send him down to Hartford, but to do that he would have to clear waivers first, which means the Rangers would likely lose him for nothing.

So rather than bite the bullet and close the book on the McDonagh / Miller trade, Drury decided to send down 2018 first-round pick Vitali Kravtsov instead while he attempts to convince a GM dumb enough to take his call to give him a mid to late-round pick in return for Hajek.

Understandably, Kravtsov didn't take the news of his demotion very well, so he opted not to report to Hartford. And now the organization that was too stubborn to admit it got fleeced by the Lightning, has a disgruntled first round pick on their hands. Their solution to suspend the winger and give his agent permission to contact other teams to seek out a trade not only makes no sense, as Vince Mercogliano pointed out, issuing a public statement like that actually "diminishes his trade value."

The Rangers have had their fair share of self-inflicted wounds over the decades. But this one takes the cake. On the cusp of a season opener that was to begin a new chapter in the franchise's storied existence, for something like this to happen is unforgivable. It's bad enough they opted to pass on Oliver Wahlstrom, the burley, 200 pound winger taken by the Islanders two picks later, but now they've alienated the player they did choose - a player, mind you that has a promising future - in order to protect their interests in a player they have no use for. If your head is spinning, you're not alone.

This didn't have to happen. Drury should've swallowed his pride and cut his losses on Hajek in order to keep Kravtsov in New York. Even if, as Gallant has said, Julien Gauthier and Dryden Hunt had more impressive camps and would most likely have gotten more ice time, just being on the team would've helped his development. There is nothing more Kravtsov can learn by playing with the Wolf Pack. He's not Morgan Barron. Some additional seasoning isn't going to improve his game.

Hopefully this gets resolved before things go too far. Maybe someone can step in, calm down the young player and remind him of the bigger picture here. Perhaps fellow countryman Artemi Panarin can have a heart to heart with him. If that doesn't work, Drury should call up John Davidson in Columbus and, as Rick Carpiniello mused on Twitter, see if there's any interest.

Bottom line, it would really be a terrible waste if Kravtsov ends up becoming the next Lias Anderssen.

2021-22 NHL Predictions

I'm not a big fan of regular season predictions because too many things can go wrong during the course of an 82 game schedule. Injuries, for one. Still, given this will be the first full schedule in three years, I thought I'd stick my big toe in the water. So, here we go.

Eastern Conference:

Atlantic Division:

Tampa Bay Lightning: Yes, they lost their entire third line and the center on their fourth. But this team is loaded with talent; their defense is intact; and they still have the best goaltender in the world, not to mention the second best coach in the league in Jon Cooper.

Boston Bruins: David Krejci's unexpected retirement hurts, as does the loss of Tuuka Rask. Still, the Marchand line is the best line in the league and that should carry them to a solid second place.

Florida Panthers: They went all out to acquire the depth they believe will get them over the hump. The only problem is their best goaltender is the guy not making $10 million a year. Hard to see them making a deep run with this group.

Metropolitan Division:

New York Islanders: They lost Jordan Eberle in the expansion draft, but Lou Lamoriello was able to keep the rest of this core intact, including their "identity" line which has given every team in the league fits the last three years. The defense is lights out, the goaltending is solid and, oh yes, they have Barry Trotz.

Carolina Hurricanes: Hard to figure what they were thinking letting Dougie Hamilton go in free agency. Tony DeAngelo can score, but as Rangers fans know all too well, his defense leaves a lot to be desired. The forwards are deep enough to keep them in the hunt.

New York Rangers: Chris Drury overhauled the lineup just enough and hired the right coach for this still very young team.

Wild Cards:

Toronto Maple Leafs: Replacing Zach Hyman with Nick Ritchie won't help a team that relies too much on finesse. Yes, they'll qualify for the playoffs again, but then that's not the problem, is it?

Washington Capitals: This team is starting to show its age but they'll be good enough to squeak in.

Western Conference:

Central Division:

Colorado Avalanche: They were forced to let Brandon Saad go because of the salary cap, but they have the best one-two punch in the league with Nathan MacKinnon and Gabriel Landeskog, plus Darcy Kuemper is an upgrade in goal.

Winnipeg Jets: They have arguably the second best goalie in the league in Connor Hellebuyck and one of the best centers in Mark Scheifele. Defense is good if unspectacular.

St. Louis Blues: They have the goaltending to contend and they added a couple of solid forwards to an already deep lineup.

Pacific Divison:

Vegas Golden Knights: What's there not to like? They play an uptempo, physical-style of play, and assuming the guys in white coats don't come for Robin Lehner, they should run away with the division.

Edmonton Oilers: Zach Hyman was a good pickup, albeit at a high price. But the operative question remains can this top heavy team advance in the postseason?

Vancouver Canucks: They have a future super star in Elias Pettersson and former Ranger J.T. Miller. Questions remain, though, in goal and on D.

Wild Cards:

Chicago Blackhawks: Hoping to squeeze the last ounce of life out of the careers of Patrick Kane and Jonathan Toews, they went shopping during the offseason and bagged a couple of nice additions; the biggest one being Marc-Andre Fleury.

Seattle Kraken: Ron Francis was smart to stock up on quality defensemen in the expansion draft. They still don't have a number one center and will likely lead the league in one-goal games, but at least they won't embarrass themselves.

Playoffs:

Eastern Conference Finals: New York Islanders over Tampa Bay Lightning 4-2

Western Conference Finals: Vegas Golden Knights over Colorado Avalanche 4-3

Stanley Cup Finals: New York Islanders over Vegas Golden Knights 4-3

Year End Awards:

Art Ross Trophy: Connor McDavid, Oilers

Hart Trophy: Artemi Panarin, Rangers

Norris Trophy: Cale Maker, Avalanche

Vezina Trophy: Andrei Vasilevskiy, Lightning

Conn Smythe Trophy: Mathew Barzel, Islanders

  

Analyzing the 2021-22 Rangers

One of the most consequential seasons in the history of the New York Rangers begins this Wednesday in Washington against the Capitals. I'm not being hyperbolic here. After four years of rebuilding, this franchise is at a crossroads. Management can say all they want that the postseason is not a requirement. Tell that to James Dolan. Trust me, if this team doesn't make the playoffs this season, more heads will roll.

So let's take a look at the moves Chris Drury made during the offseason and whether or not they will make a difference.

Gerard Gallant: If the preseason is any indicator, Galant's simple, low-key coaching style appears to be the perfect antidote for the overly hands-on approach of David Quinn, who for all his teaching acumen, was never quite able to win over the veterans on the team. The players seem more relaxed and cohesive as a unit. There's a sense of unity and camaraderie that simply was not there during Quinn's tenure. Whether he can get players like Mika Zibanejad and Artemi Panarin to play the kind of north-south style of hockey that physical teams like the Islanders and Bruins employ remains to be seen.

Pavel Buchnevich: It's obvious from the Tweets I've been reading that most people still don't understand why he had to go. Ostensibly, the trade was a salary dump. Period. Thanks to the flat cap, the Ranges couldn't afford to keep the top-six winger anymore. Just like the Vegas Golden Knights couldn't afford to keep Marc-Andre Fleury. The reality is the worst pandemic in a century forced teams into making moves they would otherwise have never made. That Drury was able to get a physical winger like Sammy Blais, who has looked impressive in the preseason, in return was fortunate.

Barclay Goodrow: It cannot be overstated that this team lacked a spine the last few years. And while Goodrow is no Clarke Gillies, he ain't Nick Futiu either. In addition to being strong in the corners, he can play some center where his face-off ability will come in handy on a team that sorely lacks that skillset. If Gallant chooses to play him with Blais, the Rangers will have a formidable checking unit that can drive opponents up the wall. Well worth the money.

Patrik Nemeth and Jarred Tinordi: Apart from Jacob Trouba, there wasn't a single defenseman on this team who was capable of clearing the slot. Ryan Lindgren is a solid, stay-at-home D but lacks the size of Nemeth and Tinordi. Nemeth is the key here. He's a Swede who will likely be paired with fellow countryman Nils Lundkvist, the young phenom who had a solid preseason. This is the deepest and most balanced backline the franchise has had in years. Solid signings.

Ryan Reaves: I'll admit I was dubious when I heard about the acquisition. Frankly, I would've gone after Nick Ritchie, who at 230 pounds at least scored 15 goals for the Bruins last year. But Reaves has made a positive impact on this team so far. Even if you believe the whole Tom Wilson incident was overblown, there's no denying what his presence on the ice will mean to a team that got manhandled on a consistent basis last season. If he scores 8 goals this year, he'll be worth what Drury paid for him.

Mika Zibanejad: Just as I was sitting down to write this piece, news broke that the Rangers re-signed Zibanejad to an eight-year extension at $8.5 million AAV with a full no move clause. The timing is odd, given that less than 24 hours earlier, Larry Brooks of the New York Post reported that the only way the Rangers would be interested in trading for Jack Eichel is if the Sabres retained a substantial portion of his contract, or - and this is crucial - "they know they won't be able to sign No. 93 to a contract extension." How much you wanna bet Drury planted that story to let Zibanejad's agent know he was willing to let Mika walk if the salary demands weren't reasonable?

Regardless of how it went down, this is a win for both sides. The Rangers lock up their number one center - albeit for a longer term than they would've preferred - at a cap hit they can live with; and Zibanejad doesn't have the distraction of not having a contract hanging over his head. Hopefully, this puts to bed all the Eichel trade talk, though knowing the Twitter crowd, I doubt it. Drury can now use the savings from the Zibanejad contract to re-sign Adam Fox, who should come in at around a cool $9 mill per for eight years.

So after all the moves, is this Rangers team better than last year's? In a word, yes. They're tougher, deeper, and if the kids - Alexis Lafreniere, Filip Chytil and Kaapo Kakko - take the next step, they could be one of the more exciting teams in the NHL. All three had a strong showing against the Islanders in the preseason finale with Chytil scoring a hat trick. Gallant should consider putting them together to form a solid second line. If he has the balls to do it, he can have Zibanejad center a super line of Panarin on the left and Vitali Kravtsov on the right. Ryan Strome can then center the third line of Chris Kreider on the left and Julian Gauthier on the right. And bringing up the rear would be Goodrow centering Morgan Barron on the left and Blais on the right. Reaves and Kevin Rooney would fill out the forwards.

Now for the sixty-four thousand dollar question. Will they make the playoffs? Also yes. Zibanejad and Panarin are poised to have exceptional seasons with the latter expected to be in the running for the Hart trophy. Fox will continue to improve on his Norris-trophy winning campaign, and Trouba - who most expect to be name captain by the season opener - might be one of the best defensemen in the league. If Igor Shesterkin develops into the goaltender the organization thinks he is, I like this team's prospects.

No they will not win the Cup, but they could actually win a series depending on where they finish and who they meet. It pains me to admit this, but barring a serious injury, the Islanders are the odds-on favorite to at least get to the finals. They have the best blend of talent and grit in the league and with the Tampa Bay Lightning losing four valuable players during the offseason, I don't see anyone else in the conference capable of beating them in a seven-game series.

The bottom line is this: Rangers' fans will finally have something to cheer about this season. The hard work of Jeff Gorton and his successor Chris Drury will finally pay dividends. They're closer than most people think to the Holy Grail, and perhaps in a year or two, they'll drink from it.