No Jack City

Well, day one of free agency in the NHL came and went and Jack Eichel - or as he's known in certain social media circles, the second coming of Wayne Gretzky - is still a member of the Buffalo Sabres. Apparently, the fact that Chris Drury didn't panic and give away the farm for the privilege of bringing the injured center to Manhattan isn't going over very well among the faithful.

Frankly, I'm relieved. I am on record as being against this trade. It's risky, given Eichel's health; it would cost too much in assets; and it doesn't make this team better where it counts - in the playoffs. So, as far as I'm concerned, Jack can stay in Buffalo until it snows in August.

If anything, I was a bit miffed that Drury wasn't a little more aggressive shoring up his bottom six. Barclay Goodrow and Samuel Blais are a good start, but when you consider that the Calgary Flames were able to sign Blake Coleman for $4.9 million AAV, it's a little hard to imagine Drury couldn't get him for an even $5 mill. The guy's a legit 20 goal scorer and he and Goodrow would've made a great PK unit.

Now Drury will have to look elsewhere to complete that line. Might I suggest he place a call to Nick Ritchie's agent. The now former Boston Bruin scored 15 goals last season and weighs an impressive 230 pounds. I'd say that's pretty gritty, wouldn't you? He's currently a UFA and made only $1.5 million last year. I'm guessing three years at $2 mill AAV should close the deal. If that's too rich for the Rangers, they could inquire what it would take to pry Ryan Reaves from the Vegas Golden Knights. Reaves (34) is in the final year of a two-year contract with an AAV of $1.75M. He's 6' 2", 225 pounds and hits anything that moves. In his first two years in Vegas, he registered 305 and 316 hits respectively. The man's a truck on skates.

But the day wasn't a total loss for Drury. He did manage to complete the back end of his defense by signing Patrik Nemeth and Jarred Tinordi. The former was a rental with the Colorado Avalanche last season, and at 6' 3", 229 pounds is a classic stay-at-home defenseman who will play alongside Nils Lundkvist next season; the latter played for the Bruins last season, and at 6' 6", 215 pounds is a depth defenseman who will fill in on those nights when the opposition is a bit more, how shall I say it, brawny. Nemeth's AAV is $2.5 million times three years and Tinordi's is $900k times two. One additional note, Tinordi went toe to toe with Tom Wilson last year and held his own, so circle October 13 on your calendar when the Blueshirts open their season against the Capitals in Washington. Might want to set the DVR while you're at it.

Drury also inked a couple of depth forwards that will likely start the year in Hartford. Their salary won't count against the cap, which is good. That leaves the Rangers with about $18 million in available cap space to re-sign their own RFAs plus any additional players they may want. Assuming they trade Ryan Strome, that should give them more than enough cap room to extend Mika Zibanejad, Adam Fox and Kaapo Kakko next year. If not, they can always consult Tampa Bay Lightning GM Julien BrisBois. The man is a genius when it comes to working around the cap.

To sum up, a good day that could've been better, but at least wasn't a disaster. I'll take it.

P.S.: Just as this piece was being put to bed, Larry Brooks of The New York Post reported that the Rangers have come to terms with RFA Filip Chytil. Two years at $2.3M AAV. That leaves Igor Shesterkin as the lone RFA yet to re-sign. I don't count Libor Hajek, who with the signing of Tinordi, is now pretty much out of a job with this franchise. That makes all three of the players the Rangers got in return for Ryan McDonagh and J.T. Miller in 2018 bonafide busts: Hajek, Brett Howden and, wait for it, Vladislav Namestnikov. Not quite the worst trade in Rangers' history, but definitely in the top five.

Chris Drury Comes Face to Face with Basic Math

In a perfect world - before the NHL instituted a salary cap - Pavel Buchnevich would still be a New York Ranger. Don't kid yourself. When Chris Drury says that there's only so much cap space and ice time to go around, he's only being half truthful. You think for one moment that Gerard Gallant wouldn't have found ice time for a top six forward who scored almost a point per game this past season? Of course he would've, and so would you or any half-way reasonably sane head coach.

The problem was the salary cap. Period. No matter how many permutations you care to run - and, trust me, I ran them all - beyond the 2021-22 season, there was simply no room for him. Not with the contract renewals that are coming over the next three years. Below are the estimates of where I expect each player to wind up at. Remember, these are ONLY estimates.

2021-22: Filip Chytil ($2M) and Igor Shesterkin ($4M); 

2022-23: Mika Zibanejad ($9M), Ryan Strome ($6.5M), Adam Fox ($9M), Kaapo Kakko ($4M), Vitali Kravtsov ($3.5M) and Alexandar Georgiev ($3M); 

2023-24: Alexis Lafreniere ($6M) and K'Andre Miller ($4M). 

That comes out to a cool $51 million.

Now let's add in the players currently under contract through at least 2024. Chris Kreider ($6.5M), Jacob Trouba ($8M), Ryan Lindgren ($3M), Barclay Goodrow ($3.6M), Blake Coleman - yes, I'm including him - ($5M), and figure an additional $6 million to fill out the roster. That comes out to $32.1 million.

All told, the final nut is $83.1 million. Let's assume the salary cap goes up two million to $83.5M. You're pretty much maxed out. Now if you can somehow manage to squeeze an additional $5.5 million - the expected value of Buchnevich's next contract - into that mix and still come out under the cap, you must be using some imaginary math I'm not familiar with. And keep in mind, since the above numbers are only estimates, the actual total could be higher.

The bottom line is this: It wasn't a question of why Buchnevich had to go, but when. The truth is that by choosing to hold onto him at last year's trade deadline, the Rangers lost any chance they had of extracting equal value for him. And now with every GM in the league knowing the tight spot Drury was in, there was zero chance he was going to get a decent return on investment. Face it, it was a buyer's market and Drury knew it. With no other choice left to him, he was forced to sell low.

And just in case you were wondering why Drury didn't sign him to a one-year deal, the reason is that Buchnevich had already agreed to a two-year deal once before. This time around he was looking for a long-term contract. It's highly unlikely he would've agreed to a one year deal. But let's say he did. Do you think the outcome would've been any different? If anything, Drury might've had a harder time moving Buchnevich at next year's trade deadline, especially with the entire league knowing he was going to be a UFA. Hell, he'd be lucky to get a mid-round pick for him.

Be grateful that Drury at least got a bottom six forward and a second round pick in next year's draft. Out in Colorado, the Avalanche might well end up losing one of their top forwards for nothing. Brendon Saad, who made $6 million last season, is now a UFA. After signing Cale Maker to a $9 million per year contract, the Avalanche have about $20 million in cap space left to re-sign four forwards (one of whom is Gabriel Landeskog), a defenseman and a goalie. Landeskog recently rejected an offer of $6* million per for five years. Let's assume that both sides eventually come to an agreement on $9 million per over seven years. Now you've got $11 million leftover for three forwards, one defenseman and the goalie. That's an average of $2.2 million per player. In other words, bye, bye Brendon Saad.

And it gets worse for the Avalanche. In two years Nathan MacKinnon ($6.3M) becomes an unrestricted free agent. You think Jack Eichel's worth $10 million? Wait'll MacKinnon hits the open market. The bidding will start at a cool $12 mill. This is the nightmare scenario every GM in the league is grappling with right now. Over the next couple of years, teams will be forced to part with top-tier talent for little or next to nothing just to remain compliant with a cap that, thanks to the worst pandemic in over a century, is artificially low. Whether you're name is Chris Drury or Joe Sakic, the job is the same. Put the best possible product you can on the ice and let the chips fall where they may.

Speaking of Eichel, if we're going to skewer Drury over the Buchnevich salary dump, he deserves credit for not panicking and giving up the farm for the disgruntled star. The Buffalo Sabres seem to have miscalculated here. Their excessive and unrealistic demands were soundly rejected, not just by the Rangers, but by every other team they were in discussions with. Kudos to Drury for holding the line. With the 15th pick in the draft, the Rangers took a winger who is the sort of north-south type player they desperately need more of. 

Yes, yesterday was a rough day; a sobering day. Pavel Buchnevich is gone. It sucks, I know, but that's life. They'll be better days ahead. This team should continue to improve, and if the kids play up their potential, they could make the playoffs this coming season.

Last time I checked, that was the "unofficial" goal, right?

* Correction: earlier I wrote that Landeskog had rejected a $7 million offer. It was actually $6 million. I have made the correction.

 

Three Reasons Why the Rangers Shouldn't Trade for Jack Eichel

Before I get to Jack Eichel, a few thoughts on the Goodrow signing. $3.642 million per year for six years may seem a little steep, but when you consider what he brings to the table, you can live with it. In fact, when this contract expires in 2027, Goodrow will be the same age Cal Clutterbuck will be next year when his contract expires, and he's getting paid $3.5 million. Question, who would you rather have, Goodrow or Clutterbuck? Before you answer that, go back and watch game seven against the Islanders. It's pretty clear that Goodrow was the better player. 

The fact is Yanni Gourde, Blake Coleman and Goodrow were, pound for pound, the best skaters on the ice for the Lightning in both the semifinals and Cup finals. If Chris Drury can add Coleman and a physical defenseman this summer, he will go a long way towards making this team considerably tougher to play against next season.

Which leads me to... the main course.

There are three reasons why the Rangers should NOT trade for Eichel.

The health concerns: I've never had a neck injury, but from everything I've read, it's one of the most serious and chronic conditions an athlete can have. And it's nothing to trifle with. Even if Eichel is 100 percent ready to go by September - and that's highly unlikely given what we know about his condition - he's one cross check away from spending half a season or more on the I.R. It would be the height of irresponsibility for Drury to acquire a player who might not be able to finish out his contract, and even if he does, will be a shell of himself for the balance of it. The risk is simply too great here.

The contract: Given that there will be a flat cap in the league for the next few years, Eichel's $10 million salary is a huge nut for an organization that still hasn't signed its own RFAs, a list that includes Pavel Buchnevich and Igor Shesterkin. Next year, they will have to pony up to retain Adam Fox, Kaapo Kakko, Ryan Strome and Mika Zibanejad. And the year after that, Alexis Lafreniere will be a restricted free agent. Even if Drury trades both Buchnevich and Strome - and there appear to be some suitors - as I wrote in my last piece, whomever he gets in return will not come cheap. 

Fox's contract alone could come in at between $7 million and $9 million per year depending on what the Colorado Avalanche and Cale Makar come to terms with this summer. Makar, an RFA, was the runner up to Fox for the Norris Trophy last season. If Drury doesn't have the money to keep these players, then everything this organization and its fans went through the last four years will be for naught. The key to his success will be how well he manages the resources he has.

The wrong fit: Even without the neck injury and with a salary cap that isn't flat, Eichel is the wrong fit for this franchise. He does nothing to address the team's most glaring needs. If anything, he's a younger version of Zibanejad with a higher price tag and a slightly less imposing shot. If Drury were to trade for him, he'd have to give up assets that would weaken other areas of the team - I'm guessing Filip Chytil, K'Andre Miller, either Vitali Kravtsov or Kakko and a number one draft pick. That is simply too steep a price to pay.

Instead of trying to replicate the Toronto Maple Leafs, an organization that has been an unmitigated disaster in the postseason, Drury should borrow a page out of Lou Lamoriello's playbook. There isn't one player on the Islanders with a contract over $7 million, and they were one win away from the Stanley Cup finals. With a few maneuvers this off-season, the best GM in the business is positioning his team to, once again, contend for the Cup. And with a healthy Anders Lee, they might just win it.

I'll say it again: The way the NHL is currently structured, teams that are overly laden with talented players simply don't succeed. What you need is a healthy balance between talent and grit. The Lightning have some of the most talented players in hockey, yet it was their foot soldiers who were responsible for them winning back-to-back Cups. Don't take my word for it; just go to the video tape, as an old New York sportscaster was fond of saying.

The Rangers have some talented players of their own. Maybe not on the same level as the Lightning, but hardly chopped liver. After they buy out Tony DeAngelo's contract, they will have around $23 million to spend, minus the $3 million or so they will need for performance bonuses. Drury has the 15th pick in Friday's Entry Draft. He can either keep it or include it in a package for a player or players that can help this team become a legitimate playoff contender. For instance, Tampa doesn't have a number one pick this year. Would they consider trading Anthony Cirelli and Ross Colton for Chytil, Kravtsov, Zac Jones and the Rangers number one pick? It's certainly worth a phone call to find out. 

In Seattle, after a less than impressive Expansion Draft, it's obvious that Ron Francis needs help at center. Given he's got enough left handed defensemen to start an army with, I'm sure a trade could be worked out. Perhaps Strome straight up for Carson Soucy. The Kraken get a solid pivot man and Drury gets the sturdy defenseman he needs on the third pairing along with $1.75 million in cap relief.

And then there's the free agent market. As we've already seen, Drury isn't hesitant about going that route. While Goodrow was a nice beginning, as Larry Brooks writes in The New York Post, he needs to be surrounded with "complimentary players" in order to be effective. The Rangers didn't sign Nick Fotiu here.

The point is, Drury has options available to him. What he can ill afford is to tie up 12 percent of his salary cap on a one-dimensional, albeit, star that'll light up the score sheet against the Devils and Sabres but get pushed around by the Islanders and Bruins. He already has an abundance of those types of players.

Which direction will he go? We'll know soon enough.

Drury's on the Clock

With his head coach and assistants in place, Chris Drury turned his attention to next week's Expansion Draft. But before he submitted his list of players he was going to protect, only one of whom - Kevin Rooney - was unexpected, he managed to swing a couple of deals, one of which could end up being the springboard that transforms this team of cream puffs into a team with some spine.

In a move that took most people by surprise, Drury traded a 7th round pick to the Tampa Bay Lightning for UFA Barclay Goodrow. You might ask why would Drury waste a pick on someone who's going to be a free agent in 10 days? Because he now has exclusive rights to negotiate a deal with Goodrow BEFORE he hits the open market, that's why.

The other move was equally surprising and provides some closure on one of the worst trades in Rangers history. Drury unloaded Brett Howden - acquired in the now infamous Ryan McDonagh / J.T. Miller deal -on the Vegas Golden Knights for a 4th round pick and defenseman Nick DeSimone, who's also a pending UFA but will likely sign elsewhere. The fact that Drury got anything north of a used puck bag for Howden was a bonus. While McDonagh has been a major cog for a Lightning team that has won back to back Stanley Cups, Howden has been a huge bust, scoring a paltry 49 points in three seasons in the NHL.

But getting back to Goodrow, Drury cannot afford to let him test the free agent waters. At 6' 2", 203 pounds and only 28, he's just what the doctor ordered for a team that looks at driving to the net the same way vampires look at sunrises. Though he played mostly left wing for the Bolts, Jon Cooper often relied on him to take important draws. His 50 percent win ratio would instantly make him the Rangers best face-off man. Don't be shocked if Gerard Gallant uses him at center. Imagine Goodrow and fellow Lightning line mate Blake Coleman out there killing penalties and making life a living hell for opposing teams best offensive lines. 

A while back I wrote that Drury needed to target both Goodrow and Coleman during the off season. If he were to sign Goodrow before the 28th, he would be half-way home. How hard do you think it would be to entice Coleman to come to New York with Goodrow already inked? I'm guessing not that hard at all.

The question is how high does Drury go? The last two seasons, Goodrow made $925,000 per. Clearly, having played a not-so insignificant role in this year's Cup run, he's due for a substantial pay raise. Word is Goodrow is looking for a six-year contract at $3.25 million per, while Drury would prefer a four-year term at $2.5 million per. I'm thinking split the difference: five years at $3 million per. That's $15 million over half a decade. More than fair, and it gives Drury the flexibility he needs to go after Coleman and retain his own RFAs, plus add a physical defenseman to play on the third defensive pairing. Perhaps Ryan Suter could be had for $1.5 million.

Let's not forget that while the Rangers have $23 million in available cap space to play with this offseason, after next year, they will have several players who will be seeking huge pay increases. Mika Zibanejad, who's currently making $5.35 million, will be a UFA, and Adam Fox, fresh off his Norris Trophy win and making only $925,000, will be an RFA. Even if Zibanejad were to take a home-town discount, you gotta think he's going to get somewhere in the neighborhood of $9 million per over six years. As for Fox, assuming the Rangers opt for a two-year bridge deal, that's still going to translate to at least $5 million per. And then there's Ryan Strome, who's signed to a team-friendly $4.5 million this upcoming season. If Drury decides to retain him, he too will come with a hefty price tag. If he trades him, whoever he gets in return will not be cheap.

Welcome to today's NHL, where the salary cap is expected to stay flat for quite some time. Money just doesn't go as far as it used to. Now you know why I was so against the Rangers trading for Jack Eichel. Not only is he the wrong player for this franchise, his $10 million cap hit would cripple the team's ability to make the changes necessary to become a contender for the foreseeable future. Ask the Edmonton Oilers how it feels to have two players tie up over $20 million in salary cap space. The same Edmonton Oilers team, mind you, that has won exactly one playoff game the last two seasons. Or how about the Toronto Maple Leafs, who haven't won a playoff series in seventeen years and blew a 3-1 series lead against the Montreal Canadiens? With three players combining for $33 million in salary and $75 million already committed next season, they don't have enough cap space to sign their two best checking forwards, Zach Hyman and Nick Foligno. That's called incompetence, people.

Drury cannot allow that to happen to the Rangers. He knows he'll only get one shot to get this right. He has all the chips he needs to make the right moves. What he can't do is panic just for the sake of making a splash. His counterpart on Long Island wrote the book on extracting maximum value from players, and he has the championship rings to show for it. Love 'em or hate 'em, right now the Islanders are closer to winning a Stanley Cup than the Rangers are. Only a fool would bet against Lou Lamoriello, or think he can be upstaged. This about it: while Drury was getting the negotiating rights to Goodrow for a seventh rounder, Lamoriello got the Arizona Coyotes to take Andrew Ladd and his $5.5 million cap hit off his hands for two second rounders and a third rounder. Who do you think had a better day?

The bottom line? Drury's on the clock. This is his make or break moment.

The Lightning Just Gave the Rangers a Blueprint for Success

For any and all Rangers' fans who still cling to the silly belief that acquiring Jack Eichel is the ticket to a future Stanley Cup championship, I hope they had a chance to watch game five of the finals last night between the Tampa Bay Lightning and the Montreal Canadiens. The Bolts, behind Conn-Smythe Trophy winner Andrei Vasilevskiy, shutout the Habs 1-0 to capture their second consecutive Cup.

The significance of this achievement cannot be overstated. Consider the following: In the final round, Brayden Point, the NHL leader in postseason goals with 14, didn't score once. Nikita Kucherov, the leading scorer in the postseason, had a grand total of three points, all in game one. Steven Stamkos scored his one and only goal of the series on the power play, also in game one. Alex Killorn, third on the team in playoff scoring, went down with an injury in game one and missed the rest of the series.

And yet this team still managed to hoist the Cup last night. How was that possible? Simple, because for all their world-class talent, the Lightning have some of the best and grittiest foot soldiers in the NHL. 

Players like Ross Colton, Blake Coleman, Barclay Goodrow, Pat Maroon, Yanni Gourde, David Savard and Anthony Cirelli are the reasons this team won back-to-back championships. Shit, they're the reason they got past the Islanders in the semifinals. Cirelli was the best player on the ice in games six and seven of that series. He set up Gourde's short-handed tally in game seven, the only goal of the game. It was Coleman's goal in game two of the finals that proved to be the difference. It was Maroon's goal that sent game four into overtime. And it was Goodrow's shot-blocking prowess that allowed Colton's tip in in the second period of game five to stand as the lone goal; that and the clutch goaltending of Vasilevskiy.

For less than what it would cost the Rangers to acquire Eichel, they could easily sign three players like Coleman, Goodrow and Colton. The first two are UFAs; the last is an RFA with matching rights. But since the Lightning are already over the Cap and will have to shed salary during the offseason, it is unlikely they will be able to retain him. A total of $9 million per year for all three should do it.

They could then trade Filip Chytil, Vitali Kravtsov and their number one draft pick to Tampa for Cirelli who is a future star in the making. On defense, they could re-sign Brendon Smith to a one-year deal for $1.5 million and trade Zac Jones and a second-round pick to the St Louis Blues for Vince Dunn, who they would then sign to a three-year deal for $3.5 million per.

Think of the possibilities. Ryan Strome centering Artemi Panarin on the left and Colman on the right; Mika Zibanejad centering Chris Kreider on the left and Colin Blackwell on the right; Cirelli centering Alexis Lafreniere on the left and Kaapo Kakko on the right; and Colton centering Goodrow on the left and Gauthier on right. The defensive pairings would be Jacob Trouba / K'Andre Miller, Adam Fox / Ryan Lindgren, and Smith / Dunn.

Over night, the Rangers would be a deeper, tougher team to play against. Apart from Panarin, not a single player would be at or over the $10 million mark. And best of all, the Rangers would still have the cap space needed to sign their young, budding stars to the contracts they will undoubtedly deserve in 2022 and 2023.

I will keep saying it until the doubters are convinced. To win in the NHL these days you need players that are willing to deliver and take a check. Anybody can score against teams that don't play defense. The real challenge comes when you try to score against teams that defend well, and against those teams, the Rangers struggled mightily last season.

Chris Drury, I'm sure, realizes this. At the press conference to introduce Gerard Gallant, he said, "It’s hard not to watch these playoffs and notice the physicality, the energy, the effort and the intensity it takes to win and to succeed and we’re certainly going to need to play that way to have success in the regular season and in the playoffs."

That's why it's imperative that he resist the urge to go for the glitter and instead grab the grit. It won't be the sexy move, but it will help this franchise, which has now gone 27 years without a Cup, get closer to the Holy Grail.