Mets Will Win, If...

Going into their first World Series in 15 years, the New York Mets are slight favorites over the Kansas City Royals. The reason comes down to starting pitching. Put succinctly, the Mets have a huge advantage here. All four of their starters have extremely impressive ERAs, much more impressive than the Royals.

In fact, when you break it down, both teams are fairly close everywhere else. Both have impressive lineups that can inflict damage on the other team's pitching; though, as we shall see, each do it differently. And both clubs have solid closers in their bullpen. But it's their starters that give the Mets the edge and why many feel they should prevail in the Series.

Yet I remain cautiously optimistic. Why? Because until now the Mets' starters haven't been truly tested. The Dodgers' lineup was, well, a joke. At best, there were maybe two or three legitimate hitters on it. The Cubs' lineup was built around the home run. They mauled the Cardinals in the divisional series. Against the more potent arms of the Mets, they wilted.

The Royals won't go away so quietly. While they can hit the occasional home run, they much prefer to smack the ball around to all areas of the park. They took apart the Blue Jays' pitching in the previous series. They can test a pitching staff like few lineups can.

This presents a huge problem for the Mets, especially their likely game two starter, Jacob deGrom. On two occasions deGrom was on the ropes in this post season: game five against the Dodgers and game three against the Cubs. He fell behind early and ofen and put his team in trouble. His pitch count was extremely high through the first four innings of both games. What saved him was the inability of both the Dodgers and Cubs to capitalize on their opportunities.

If the same thing should happen to him against the Royals, it will cost him this time. DeGrom won't be the beneficiary of either a lousy hitting team or a sloppy and undisciplined one. Kansas City's lineup is patient enough to wait him out and make him throw a hittable strike. Also, since they don't strike out a lot, deGrom will have to entice the Royals' hitters to hit 'em where they are rather than where they ain't.

With that in mind, it becomes imperative that game one starter Matt Harvey win the opener. Harvey is for all intents and purposes the most complete starter the Mets have. If they are to win the Series, Harvey must win his games. Period.

Also, Terry Collins will have to get solid performances from his bullpen. And that means more than just Jeurys Familia. At some point Tylor Clippard and Addison Reed are going to be on the mound and both must come through. Expecting these young starters to go eight innings each game is way too much to ask.

So there you have it. The Mets will win if both Jacob deGrom and Matt Harvey win their games and if the bullpen holds up. If either falters, it will be another close but no cigar year for the Amazins.

Prediction: Mets in six.

Mets vs. Cubs Prediction

For the first time in nine years, the New York Mets will play for the right to get into the World Series. I needn't remind any of you that the last time didn't go particularly well. The image of Carlos Beltran with the bat on his shoulders taking a called third strike has been seared into our collective consciousness. When you couple that with the epic '07 collapse down the stretch, it has been a long and bitter nine years.

But if Mets' fans were chomping at the bits to get back to the World Series, just imagine what Cubs fans have been going through. The last time their team won a pennant was 1945; the last time it won a championship was 1908. At least Mets' fans can take solace that their team has been to four World Series, winning two of them, all since the end of World War II.

Before I begin my series breakdown, I think it only fair to tip my hat to both Mets' management and its owners. While it pains me to admit it, Fred and Jeff Wilpon deserve some credit for giving the green light to Sandy Alderson to make the moves necessary to bring a division title to New York. And Alderson made the most of the trade deadline, getting Yoenis Cespedes and several other key players.

Those trades, along with an underachieving Washington Nationals team - picked by many as a slam dunk for the division, possibly the league championship - allowed the Mets to take this division. Prior to the trades, the Mets were barely a .500 team.

Now on to the matchups. A look at both teams shows that they are virtually identical in runs scored, home runs and team ERA. What that means is that, barring a miscue, this series should go 6 or 7 games. The Mets' have an edge in position players everywhere, except 1st and 3rd base. And they have a deeper starting rotation than the Cubs. However, the Cubs have without a doubt the best starter in the series in Jake Arrieta. The Mets are going to have to beat him at least once in this series in order to advance.

If there is one Achilles heal for the Mets, it's their bullpen. Put succinctly, it's brutal. How brutal? In game 5 against the Dodgers, Terry Collins was forced to use starter Noah Syndergaard in the 7th inning and needed to have his closer Jeurys Familiar pitch the last two innings for the save. The Mets' starters are going to have to go at least seven or eight innings in their starts. Otherwise, this series could get ugly fast.

And even allowing for that, at some point Collins will have to ask his bullpen to get a few outs. Look for him to lean on 42 year old Bartolo Colon to provide some valuable relief. He doesn't have much of a choice. Tyler Clippard, obtained at the trade deadline as the set-up man for Familia, has been a bust of late.

It comes down to this. If the Mets' bullpen can get a few outs in this series, the Mets will prevail; if, not, the Cubs will advance to the World Series for the first time since 1945. The heart says Mets; the head says Cubs.

Prediction: Mets in 7.