Who Will Win Super Bowl 48?

Let's get something straight. If I really knew who was going to win the big game in February, I wouldn't be writing this silly blog; I'd be in Vegas planning my next villa in the south of France. But, if recent history is any indication, the winner will most definitely NOT be the number one seed in its conference.

Going back to the 2005 season, only two Super Bowl winners earned a first-round bye. They were the '08 Steelers (#2 seed) and the '09 Saints (#1 seed). The other SB winners were either low-seed division or wildcard teams. The '06 Colts, '11 Giants and '12 Ravens were low-seed winners while the '05 Steelers, '07 Giants and '10 Packers were wildcard winners. That's six out of eight winners that were not even favored to get to the conference championship game, much less the Super Bowl.

What that tells you is that in today's NFL, anything goes. Parody is the key to what drives the sport. It's what makes things so interesting and predictions so hard to make. In fact you could say the only predictable thing about the NFL is its unpredictability.

So, with that in mind, let me go on record as saying who ever wins Super Bowl 48, will NOT be the top seed in its conference. That means no Denver Broncos and Houston Texans (my picks for #1 and #2 seeds respectively in the AFC) or San Francisco 49ers and Atlanta Falcons (#1 and #2 seeds in the NFC).

The likely teams to represent the AFC are: The Indianapolis Colts and Baltimore Ravens (again). In the NFC, I like the Green Bay Packers, Seattle Seahawks and New York Giants.  Since the big game is being played in New York, I'll go with the Giants over Ravens at Met Life Stadium.

Don't bet the ranch.  Remember, I'm a Mets' fan.

October in May

Well it sure was fun while it lasted, wasn't it? Seriously, it's news these days when the Mets manage to put together back to back wins, let alone sweep the most storied franchise in professional sports. In case you haven't been paying attention, Twiddle Dee and Twiddle Dum (AKA, the Wilpons, Mutt and Jeff) have pretty much destroyed this team the last few years.

So you can imagine everyone's shock and amazement when the Amazin's did the improbable and took all four games against the Bronx Bombers, the last two coming at Yankee Stadium. Somebody pinch me, I must be dreaming.

Now to be fair, this wasn't your usual Yankee team. No Teixeira, no Jeter, no A-Rod. About the only two regulars in the lineup were Cano and Gardner. By all accounts, this was the weakest hitting team the Yankees have fielded in decades. They were bound to lose a few eventually.

As for the Muts, you know the old saying, on any given day...?  Well, the Mets had four of those in a row.  And, so long as we're being fair to the Yanks, let's just state the obvious: the Mets aren't the worst team in baseball; they just play like it most nights.  Indeed both teams were due for a change in fortunes.  It's just a little odd that the change happened at the exact same time. The Mets looked like champs; the Yanks chumps.

But while Mets' fans celebrated the moment and rightly so, if I were them I wouldn't go making plans for any post-season parties just yet. As we speak, their team is desperately trying to salvage the final game of a 3-game set against the Miami Marlins - truly the worst team in Baseball - after getting pummeled in the first two. So much for a winning streak.

Yeah, it sure was nice to see some wins; it was even nicer to see Yankee fans suffer, if only for a short while. But, like most vacations, there comes a point when you come back home and all you have left are the memories and the pictures.

It's back to business as usual. The Yankees will move on an, in all likelihood, win at least 90 games, which should be enough to capture this division. As for the Flushing faithful. Let's just say that 90 games sounds about right. Unfortunately, those 90 will be in the loss column.

Sather Deserves Some Blame for Rangers Collapse

It goes without saying that the dismissal of John Tortorella as Rangers' head coach will not cause any tears to be shed among the hockey beat writers who covered the team. Let's be honest, Torts was a bit of a dick and didn't mind letting the press know it every chance he got.

But putting aside his prickly manner, Tortorella was his own worst enemy. As Larry Brooks correctly observed in Monday's New York Post, you coach the team you have, not the one you wish you had. All season long, the Rangers looked like the proverbial square peg trying to fit into their coach's round hole. The power play was abysmal, the penalty killing only remotely better and, worse, their arguably best two-way forward, Brad Richards, looked lost. Not even exiling Marian Gaborik to Columbus righted the ship.

Consider this: had it not been for a mistake by Bruins' goalie Tuukka Rask in game four the Blue Shirts would've been swept in the second round. That they barely squeaked past the Capitals in the first was telling.

Indeed, even last year's team struggled to make it to the conference finals, needing a full seven games in each of its first two rounds to advance. Teams with championship aspirations don't get that extended that early in the postseason and survive.

The addition of Rick Nash was supposed to add to the team's scoring balance. Instead of helping, the team continued to struggle offensively. The entire shortened season was ripe with starts and stops. The team was never able to put together a sustained winning streak and, as a result, flirted with missing the postseason. Only a late-season surge prevented the unthinkable.

So now, the Rangers are shopping for a new coach for the third time in eight years. Tom Renney lacked discipline, so he was canned. Tortorella was a 180 and now he's gone. But lost in all this was the fact that both men were hired by Glen Sather.

Since taking over for Neil Smith, Sather has hired and fired his share of coaches and made a number of trades, some good, some bewildering. It is hard to imagine that Sather didn't know about Tortorella's style of coaching before he hired him. If he didn't, then what does it say about his vetting process?

Reports that player dissatisfaction with their coach was a factor in Sather's decision are erroneous. Sather made the move to save his ass, period. The core of this team is still relatively young, with the defense among the youngest in the league. But his all-star goalie will be 31 next year. The GM knows the clock is ticking on King Henrik. At best, he has another four to five seasons at peak capability before time catches up to him. Whoever Sather gets to fill the coaching vacancy will need some time to get his system in place.

And then there's the matter of what to do with Brad Richards. He is owed $12 million next season and, with the league salary cap going down, the Rangers will most likely use their last exemption and cut him rather than risk a cap hit. In other words, Sather will be shopping for a replacement.

Bottom line, next season is far from set. The Rangers' new coach will probably want some input into player personnel. Sather will likely acquiesce and we can expect some more shuffling of the deck. And the spinning wheel will continue to go round.

Yes, John Tortorella is gone, but his ex-boss is alive and well and very much in control of the helm.

Drop the Puck, Already!

Now that the NHL and its imperial overlord, Gary Betman, have decided to end their self-imposed lockout, it's time to play some hockey.  Like in 1995, the league will play a shortened season: 48 games.

Ironically, this should greatly enhance the prospects of the New York Rangers, who last season looked more like an armored battalion that had seen one too many campaigns than a first-place team. Whatever else you may want to say about John Tortorella's coaching style, know this: it is very demanding and exacting. No matter how hard the Rangers huffed and puffed, they just didn't have enough in the gas tank for four full playoff rounds, not after a grueling 82 game schedule.

But with a 48 game schedule, plus the addition of winger Rick Nash, the blue shirts should be able to go long enough in the post season to capture their first Stanley Cup since '94. Overall, no team in the league is better balanced. Their defense, among the best in the NHL, returns with an additional year under its belt. Marian Gaborik, who had off-season surgery, is fully healthy, which will be welcomed news. He and Nash give the Rangers a legitimate one, two punch. And then there's Henrik Lundqvist, last year's Vezina Trophy winner, who will once more spin his magic between the pipes. At 30, he has at least another five to seven prime seasons left in him.

They are deep, young and determined. Assuming they get off to a fast start - an absolute must in a shortened season - they should challenge for top honors in the conference, if not the league.  Indeed, only one team should present any challenges for them: the Pittsburgh Penguins, who will have a fully healthy Sidney Crosby. The New Jersey Devils, who got more out of their lineup than most thought last season, will not be as much of a force. This will be the year Martin Brodeur finally looks his age.

My prediction for the finals: Rangers over St. Louis Blues in seven games.