Where Will John Harbaugh Wind Up?

No sooner had I written my piece on who the next Giants head coach would be, that we learned the Miami Dolphins had fired their head coach Mike McDaniel. Naturally every Dolphins fan from Key West to Port St. Lucie assumed Harbaugh was going to be the Dolphins next head coach. After all, the owner Stephen Ross has more money than God, and Harbaugh is in tight with Ross; ergo it's a done deal. 

Jesus, how many Margaritas can those people drink down there? Even Jimmy Buffet's going, "Dude, chill out, they haven't even met with him yet."

For the record, every owner in the NFL is rich, and by rich, I mean filthy rich. The Giants are owned by John Mara, Steve Tisch and Julia Koch; the latter has a 10 percent stake and just happens to be worth $81 billion. Trust me, the Giants would have no problem forking over a sizable chunk of dough to get Harbaugh's signature on a contract.

So now that we've dispensed with the "Who's dick is bigger" portion of the piece, let's get down to what really matters; what will likely be the things that determine where Harbaugh coaches next season. Things like do they have a quarterback? How many holes do they have on the roster? What division do they play in? And how much control will he have? 

While there's no indication that Harbaugh is looking for total control of football operations - i.e., bring in his own GM - it is reasonable to assume he's looking for a collaborative relationship with the front office; one that gives him input into player personnel and the ability to hire his own assistants. 

There's another misperception that needs to be cleared up, and that's this idea that Harbaugh is the second coming of Vince Lombardi. He's not, and even if he were, none of these teams are the '66 Green Bay Packers. All of them have flaws; flaws that will need to be addressed for them to become title contenders. Indeed, the best team currently looking for a new head coach just happens to be the one that fired him, and even they went 8-9. 

Since I have a horse in this race, I thought I'd start with them first. 

New York Giants: The last 15 years notwithstanding, this is still considered a marque franchise with a rich history and four Super Bowls to its credit. Sherman, Parcells, Fassel, Coughlin. And those are just the head coaches. Lombardi, Landry, Belichick, and Payton have all cut their teeth as assistants with this organization. Harbaugh would be in good company.

The Giants lost five games this season in which they held a double-digit lead, four of those losses came in the fourth quarter. They have a young, talented quarterback in Jaxson Dart, a vastly improved offensive line, and some weapons on both sides of the ball. They are not as bad as their record would suggest. With the right coach, this could be an 8 or 9 win team next season.

Miami Dolphins: The last franchise to have a perfect season, the Fish present a tantalizing choice. If ever there was a fanbase that was starving to win a championship, it's this one. They have not been to the Super Bowl since 1985, and haven't won a playoff game since 2000. Harbaugh could be the next Don Shula.

Could be. That's because there are a couple of problems. Tua Tagovailoa and Tyreek Hill are due to make $108 million next season. That's a lot of salary to tie up just for two players. New GM Jon-Eric Sullivan will have to decide whether to keep both or trade them to free up cap space.

The other problem is location. Over the last forty years, there have been four warm-weather teams that have won the Super Bowl: the Tampa Bay Buccaneers (twice), the New Orleans Saints, and the Los Angeles Rams. Like it or not, warm-weather teams just don't do well in cold weather venues come January. Does Harbaugh really want to be the next Dave Wannstedt?

Atlanta Falcons: Frankly, I'm surprised more people aren't talking about them as a possibility. The Falcons play in arguably the worst division in the NFL. They had a strong finish to the season, winning their last four games to finish tied with the Tampa Bay Buccaneers and Carolina Panthers for first place. The Panthers won the division by virtue of a tie breaker. 

With Harbaugh, Atlanta could easily win 10 games every season, which would be more than enough to earn a home game in the playoffs. For a city that loves its football, he could run for mayor.

Cleveland Browns: Not to be confused with the original Browns franchise that moved to Baltimore, this Browns franchise has had very few things to celebrate since its inception in 1999. Ironically, they fired the only coach to win 11 games and coach of the year (twice) in Kevin Stefanski. 

Harbaugh's family is from the area. Hiring him as coach would be like the prodigal son returning home. The issue here is the GM, and a quarterback room that is more crowded than the L.I.E. during rush-hour. Like the NFC South, the AFC North is not a particularly strong division. 9 wins could be enough to win it.

Tennessee Titans: They have their quarterback in Cam Ward, but precious little else. This would be the ultimate re-build. If Harbaugh manages to pull it off, he would go down in history. 

Arizona Cardinals: An intriguing choice. They have the quarterback but unfortunately play in the same division as the Rams, 49ers and Seahawks. Not sure Harbaugh wants any part of that.

Las Vegas Raiders: Word has it Tom Brady has his sights set on Curt Cignetti of Indiana University, who just happens to coach Heinemann trophy winner and first overall pick Fernando Mendoza. Guess who holds the number one pick?

My thoughts? I think it comes down to the Giants, Dolphins, Falcons and Browns. That coincides with what Jay Glazer has reported. He spoke with Harbaugh who told him that he has narrowed the list of teams he will interview with down to three or four. Harbaugh is also said to be reviewing film on various players. I assume one of them is Dart. 

Like I wrote in my last piece, the Giants cannot afford to make the same mistake they made six years ago. If they truly believe that Harbaugh is the best man to coach this team, they need to make him an offer he can't refuse. Don't let him leave the building without signing him. If Mara has to give up his first-born grandchild, so be it.

I was in sales for 25 years, and I know for a fact that when a customer walks out of your store without a receipt in his hands, he rarely if ever comes back.

As Tommy Lugauer of WFAN pointed out: John Harbaugh has his pick of the litter here. It is up to Mara to make sure that pick is the Giants.

 

Addition By Subtraction

Sorry this took so long; I would've written it earlier but I was trying to decide whether to jump off a bridge or just hang myself. Seriously, based on the responses I've been reading on social media and from the so-called football experts, you'd have thought the world came to an end yesterday. "The Giants got fleeced." "Worst trade since Ruth."

Let's be very clear here. Dave Gettleman did not break up the '79 Steelers. Yes, Odell Beckham, Jr. is a world-class receiver who now has a chance to turn the Cleveland Browns into a legitimate playoff contender - MAYBE - but the fact is that in the five years he played for the Giants, they had exactly one winning season - 11-5 with a wildcard berth in 2016 - and that was owed almost exclusively to one of the best overall defenses in the league.

His receptions were the stuff of legend, I get it. In fact, I can still remember that one-handed catch he made against the Cowboys at Met Life stadium on a Sunday night. Al Michaels to this day hasn't stopped hyperventilating over it. By the way, in case you were wondering, the Giants lost that game, along with so many of the games in which Beckham made otherworldly grabs. And that was the problem. He may have played as though he were descended from Mount Olympus, but his teammates never benefited from all that greatness.

And then there were the headaches. When you live among the gods, it's hard relating to mere mortals, and Beckham had more than his fair share of moments when the wrong thing would come out of his mouth. Last season's interview with ESPN in which he criticized the offensive play calling as well as his own quarterback may have been the straw that broke the camel's back. Yes, some of his concerns were valid, but the point is you don't throw your fellow players under the bus.

And who can forget the game against Carolina three years ago where Beckham got into a physical altercation with Panthers' cornerback Josh Norman. It was a disgraceful performance that earned Beckham a one-game suspension, and may very well have been responsible for accelerating the end of Tom Coughlin's coaching career. The Browns will now have the "pleasure" of dealing with his nonsense.

Face it, despite his talent, Beckham had become a distraction for this organization. For a team looking to rebuild, this was the best and only move they could've made. Frankly, given what the Steelers got for Antonio Brown - a third and fifth round pick - I’m kinda surprised Gettleman got the haul he did. In return for a troubled receiver that never got his team over the hump, the Giants landed the Browns' first and third round picks, plus a very good safety. The only downside to the trade is that because of the way his contract was structured, the Giants are saddled with $16 million in dead cap space. Ouch!

But apart from that bit of bad news, they can now go after Haskins with the 6th overall pick, assuming he’s still on the board by the time their turn comes up, and with the 17th pick they can choose a premium pass rusher. And if they still elect to trade for Josh Rosen, they can package a third and fourth round pick to get him without touching their top picks. In other words, Gettleman has a lot of leverage. If he doesn't trade any of them, he will have a total of 12 picks at his disposal to retool this team: both number ones, two picks in both the fourth and seventh round, three picks in the fifth, as well as single picks in the second, third and sixth.

Naturally, all this assumes that Gettleman has a good draft, but given his results from last year, I'm not that worried. With the exception of fourth rounder Kyle Lauletta, I thought the Giants had a pretty good draft. Second rounder Will Hernandez is a solid offensive lineman and both third rounders - Lorenzo Carter and B.J. Hill  - have been two of the few bright spots on an otherwise dreary defense. If anything, Gettleman has more picks to work with this year than he did last year.

Look, I'm not defending every move Gettleman has made. Why he didn't trade Landon Collins last season when he might've gotten a third rounder in return is baffling to say the least. And he did overpay for Nate Solder. But the first trade he made with Cleveland in which he got offensive lineman Kevin Zeitler in return for under-achieving linebacker Olivier Vernon sorely addressed a team need and saved $1.5 million in cap space, to boot.

In fact, the only major decision Gettleman has to make - apart from who he picks in the draft - is whether to bring back Eli Manning for what will likely be his last year in big blue. The 38 year old is set to make $23 million this season, but $5 million of that is from a bonus that's due to be paid March 17. If Gettleman decides to release Manning now, he would save that money and the dead cap hit would only be $6 million, but then that would mean turning over the reigns to a rookie quarterback on day one. I'm not sure Gettleman wants to put that much pressure on Haskins or Lock or whomever he picks as his next signal caller.

Bottom line, I think the Giants are in a better position now than they were 24 hours ago. No they aren't going to the playoffs, much less win a Super Bowl. But then only an incurable optimist would've thought they were a contender prior to the Beckham trade. When it comes to running a sports organization, I subscribe to the Bill Parcells theory: if you can't win with what you have, tear it down and start over.

If we know anything about the NFL, it's that, with the exception of the Patriots, a team's fortunes can turn on a dime. This year's rebuild can become next year's playoff team. Want proof? Take a look at the '83 and '84 Giants teams. The former finished in last place; the latter made the postseason.

The Biggest Winners and Losers in the 2018 NFL Draft

So now that the 2018 NFL draft is over, it's time to see who the biggest winners and losers were. Keep in mind, you can never really know how these players will pan out, so all this is conjecture on my part.

First, the winners:

The Giants. They pick up the best talented player in the draft in the first round; then they pick up the 4th best offensive lineman in the second round; then they use both their third round picks to beef up their defensive front seven. Oh, and by the way, they landed a quality quarterback in the 4th round to possibly take over for Ei in two or three years. Dave Gettleman had himself one helluva good draft.

The Broncos. How's this for a scenario: your kid was hoping for a brand new bike for Christmas, but you couldn't afford to get him one. Then, miraculously, the bike shop owner calls you up and tells you that a customer who put a deposit on one couldn't come up with the balance and if you still want it, the bike is available at a lower price. You say thank you, rush down and swoop it up. That's what the Broncos did when the Browns, for some unknown reason, decided to pass on the best defensive player in the draft, Bradley Chubb. So now the Broncos will have Chubb AND Von Miller on the same defensive line. Just imagine what's going through the mind of every quarterback in the AFC West right now. Yum, yum, eat 'em up!

The Cardinals. Assuming they can squeeze Josh Rosen's ego back into his body, Arizona did pretty well in this draft. That's because in addition to picking Captain America in the 1st round, they got one of the better receivers in the draft in Christian Kirk in the 2nd round along with running back Chase Edmonds in the 4th.

The Patriots. Eschewing the best talent on the board rule, Bill Belichick decided to address needs and address them he did. Two cornerbacks, a running back, a linebacker and a potential replacement for Tom Brady. And all, except for the QB, are expected to battle for starting jobs this season. The rich do indeed get richer.

The Steelers. They snagged what many believe will be Ben Roethlisberger's replacement in Mason Rudolph in the 3rd round, when many thought he was a low 1st rounder; then landed a replacement for Martavis Bryant in James Washington. That's called taking care of business.

The Colts. If the mission was to keep Andrew Luck upright, mission accomplished. They got Quenton Nelson - the best offensive lineman available - in the 1st round; then added guard Braden Smith in the 2nd. They then used the two 2nd round picks they got from the Jets to address defensive needs, drafting a linebacker and a lineman. That's how you work the draft, not by trading up but by trading down. Nice job.

The Packers. They had one of the worst pass defenses in the league last year, so they used their first two picks in the draft to go after cornerbacks. Clearly somebody in the front office figured out that having to win games 38 to 35 was not a good recipe for success.

The Jaguars. They bolstered what was already one of the league's best defenses by adding defensive lineman Taven Bryan and safety Ronnie Harrison. Then they addressed a need by drafting receiver D.J. Clark. Tom Coughlin is turning out to be an even better talent evaluator than he was a head coach.


The Losers:

The Browns. Picture this: you have the two of the first four picks in the first round and not only don't you end up with the best offensive player, you don't even get the best defensive one. Okay, so maybe Baker Mayfield will turn out to be the next Drew Breese; or maybe he ends up being the next Todd Blackledge. Bottom line, if you're going to pass on Barkley for a QB, you should at least wind up with the best one, Sam Darnold. But even if you give John Dorsey the benefit of the doubt with Mayfield - maybe he knows something we don't - there's simply no excuse in the known universe for passing on Chubb. Now you know why Cleveland fans have a persecution complex. Well, at least they partially redeemed themselves by nabbing the second best running back in the draft whose last name, ironically, also happens to be Chubb.

The Jets. Yeah, I know Manish Mehta of the Daily Booze thinks the Giants "blew it" when they passed on Darnold, thus allowing the USC quarterback to fall into the Jets' lap. But here's the thing, Sparky, Gang Green could've had their guy with the 6th pick without having to sacrifice both their 2nd round picks to move up. Here's how. It was obvious the Browns were going to go for a quarterback with the number one pick. And the Giants were dead set on taking Barkley at number two. No way the Colts were going to take a QB at three and the Browns were going defense with the fourth pick. That means the only team that might've gone for a QB would've been the Broncos and we know what they did. So Darnold would've been sitting pretty at number six. And even if the Browns chose Darnold number one, the Jets would've landed Mayfield with the 6th pick. Either way they would've gotten a quality quarterback and still had both their 2nd round picks on the board. Trading up was totally unnecessary and cost the Jets a chance to fill some badly needed holes.

The Seahawks. Yes, it was touching that they drafted the one-handed twin brother of Shaquill Griffin in the 5th round, but most of their other picks had people scratching their heads.