It's time to face facts. The New York Mets are in a slump; the worst slump they've been in all season. After taking two out of three against the National League best Los Angeles Dodgers at CitiField and entering what many consider to be the easiest September schedule of any team in the division, the Amazins' dropped two out of three to the lowly Washington Nationals.
Only a month ago, the Mets were sitting pretty in the NL East. They had just swept the Cincinnati Reds at home and were 73-39, seven games in front of the Atlanta Braves. Since then, they've gone 12-11 and their lead has been whittled down to a mere one game. While the pitching - particularly the bullpen - has been sporadic, it's the hitting that's been problematic.
Over the last 23 games, the Mets have scored a total of 75 runs, for a 3.2 runs per game average. If you think that's bad, when you subtract the 26 runs they scored in the four-game series against the Phillies in Philadelphia, that average goes down to 2.5 runs per game!
There's plenty of blame to go around. For starters, Pete Alonso continues to be susceptible to pitches out of the strike zone. Since hitting home runs in back to games against the Nats and Braves in early August, he has only three home runs and 15 RBIs in his last 30 games. Over a 162 game schedule that would come out to 16 HRs and 81 RBIs. That simply is not good enough.
Next up, Francisco Lindor. The gold glove shortstop has only one home run and four RBIs in his last 18 games. Lindor, on the whole, has had a solid season. Batting third in the lineup, he's been a productive run producer and he's been solid in the field. But like Alonso, he's picked a particularly bad time to go into a slump.
When your top two run producers are struggling to generate runs, it puts extra pressure on the rest of the lineup. And let's be honest, even with Starling Marte and Jeff McNeil having good seasons, we're not exactly talking about the 1927 Yankees here. The acquisitions by Billy Eppler at the trade deadline are turning into pumpkins. Daniel Vogelbach hasn't driven in a run since he smacked a two-run homer at Yankee Stadium on August 22. That's nine games. Tyler Naquin has only two hits and no RBIs in his last 17 games; and Darin Ruff has two hits and one RBI in his last 13 games. The decision not to go big at the trade deadline is coming back to bite this organization.
Throughout much of this season, the secret to the Mets success was their ability to extend at bats and make opposing pitchers work hard, especially in the first inning. No team in the majors has been better at it. Of late, though, Mets hitters have been anything but patient at the plate, swinging at pitches they have no business swinging at and letting opposing pitchers off the hook. That's led to a lot of three up and three down innings, which has forced Buck Showalter to go to his bullpen earlier than he would like to.
With so much going wrong lately, the news that yesterday's game against the Pirates in Pittsburgh was rained out was probably the best thing that could've happened to this team. And if the weather report for tonight proves accurate, the Mets may have consecutive days off for the first time since the Allstar Break. Hopefully they can put the time to good use.
Regardless of what happens tonight, the Mets must find a way out of this funk and fast. The winner of the the National League East will likely earn a first round bye and a ticket to the divisional round, while the loser will have to take its chances in a best of three wild card round.
Why is that significant? Let's assume that the Mets and Braves are tied for first going into the last three games of the regular season. Buck would undoubtedly be forced to use his top three starters in order to clinch the division. And if it works out, he would then be able to rest Jacob deGrom, Max Scherzer and Chris Bassitt and start them in the NLDS. But should the Braves prevail and the Mets wind up as the wild card, Showalter would have a decision to make. Does he start deGrom and Scherzer on short rest or does he go with his fourth and fifth starters? Either way, it's risky.
That's why it's imperative that the Mets, if they have any hope of advancing deep into the postseason, win the division. Their one lone advantage is their starting rotation, especially the top two, who when they're on, are arguably the best one-two punch in baseball.
The good news is the Mets are still in first place and between them and the Braves, they have the easier schedule. The bad news is the Braves are clicking on all cylinders while the Mets are sputtering. As of now, if you had to pick a favorite, it would be the Braves.
From this point on, the Mets have to assume their season is on the line, because it is. Alonso and Lindor have to snap out of their funk and start producing. Everything hinges on what those two do. As for Vogelbach, he has to do something other than strike out and ground out, which is what he's been doing a lot of lately. Marte, McNeil and Mark Canha - who's been the most consistent hitter in this lineup - will be just fine. And if Luis Guillorme comes back soon, that will be a tremendous help.
With 27 games left in the regular season, the Mets are 85-50, only 15 wins away from their first 100 win season since 1988. As good as that would be, it still might not be enough to beat out the Braves.
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