Beginning tonight, the New York Mets enter their most important stretch drive since 2015. With a record of 79-46, they currently sit in first place, one and a half games in front of the Atlanta Braves, who, since they got spanked in a five-game series against the Amazins' at CitiField, are 14-2 in their last 16 games.
Meanwhile, since that series, the Mets have gone 9-7 over their last 16, including a two-game sweep at the hands of the Bronx Bombers at Yankee Stadium. I'm sure I don't need to remind the reader what happened last year. August has habitually not been a kind month to the Mets.
The good news? The Mets schedule for the rest of the season isn't all that difficult. In fact, it's pretty damn good. After they host the Colorado Rockies for four games, the Dodgers come to town for three games. After that, the Mets don't play another team with a winning record until September 19, when they head to Milwaukee to play the Brewers. They then play another five games against losing teams before their last series with the Braves in Atlanta. They wrap up the season at home against the Nationals. All told, the combined won-loss record of these losing teams is 197-300. That's a winning percentage of .398. If the Mets can't make some hay with a schedule like that, they don't deserve to be in the postseason, much less advance in it.
But here's the thing. Even if the Mets play .800 ball against those teams, that still might not be enough to beat out Atlanta for the division. That's because the Braves schedule is almost as good. In fact, the toughest part might be their upcoming three-game set against the Cardinals in St. Louis. As hot as the Braves have been, the Cardinals have been almost as hot. They're 17-5 in the month of August. So if you're the Mets, you're hoping St. Louis can win at least two out of three.
So what do the Mets have to do to right their ship?
It all comes down to the 800 pound gorilla in the room. Pete Alonso has been in a funk the last few weeks. The cleanup hitter has hit only one home run in his last twenty games and has only four for the month of August. That is simply not good enough. Almost as bad as his lack of power is the fact that he's falling into old habits by swinging at pitches out of the strike zone. He is particularly susceptible to pitches that are low and away. There isn't a pitcher in the majors who doesn't know how to pitch to Alonso and the more he continues to swing at those pitches, the longer he will be in a slump.
If Alonso is looking for a way out of his doldrums, he might want to start taking notes from Mark Canha. The left fielder has been on a tear of late; during the ten-game road trip, in which he played in nine, Canha hit .417, with ten hits - seven for extra bases - in twenty-four at bats. Three of those extra base hits were home runs. Think about it. Over his last nine games, Canha has hit only one less homer than Alonso has hit for the entire month.
The difference between the two players could not be more apparent. Canha, though not nearly the player Alonso is, is far more disciplined at the plate. He looks for his pitch and isn't afraid to take a strike if it's not the pitch he wants. Conversely, Alonso will often reach for a pitch that he knows is out of the strike zone. As a result, he either strikes out or grounds out. Every once in a while he manages to get just enough of the ball to get one by the infielders for a single, and he's even managed to draw the rare walk or two.
For a Mets team that isn't exactly blessed with an over abundance of power to begin with, that won't do. As good as Francisco Lindor and Daniel Vogelbach have been - and they have been solid, particularly Lindor who is having a career year both at the plate and in the field - without Alonso's bat, they have no chance at the division. The way this lineup works is that Alonso carries the bulk of the load; the rest of the hitters compliment him. If he becomes an easy out - like he has of late - then the whole team struggles to score runs, as they did in three of the four games in Atlanta and both games in the Bronx. In multiple situations during the road trip, Alonso came up with men in scoring position. Only twice - game three in Atlanta and game one in Philly - did he come through.
Something has to give. Either hitting coach Eric Chavez can somehow get through to him or manager Buck Showalter has to move him down in the lineup. With the Mets only two games up on the Braves in the loss column, they cannot afford to let his slump continue to plague the offense. Maybe batting fifth or sixth will take some of the pressure off Pete. One thing's for certain: the status quo is unacceptable. This isn't April or May, it's late summer and the heat is on.
Yes, the bullpen could be deeper, but it is what it is. Max Scherzer, Jacob deGrom and Chris Bassitt are about as automatic as any starters in the game. And when Carlos Carrasco comes back in late September, Buck will have himself one helluva starting rotation going into the playoffs. But the sixty-four thousand dollar question that remains to be answered is whether the Mets will go in as a division winner or a wildcard. Right now, it's 50 / 50 at best.
Look, all players - even the great ones - go through slumps from time to time. And without exception, all of them snap out of it. It's time for Pete Alonso to snap out of his slump and be the leader this team needs.
It's time for the polar bear to come out of hibernation.
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