In 2004, everyone on Planet Earth knew that Eli Manning was the New York Giants quarterback of the future. Then GM Ernie Accorsi traded an '04 third round pick and a first and fifth rounder in '05, along with Philip Rivers, to the San Diego Chargers to get Peyton's younger brother.
The plan was to let Eli sit and learn behind former Super Bowl winner Kurt Warner. And based on what we saw in the preseason, that plan certainly looked feasible. Eli put up respectable numbers - 24/49, 327, 0 over four games - but was hardly a show stopper. Indeed, head coach Tom Coughlin waited until week 10 before finally turning the reigns over to him.
Fast forward 21 years to the 2025 NFL Draft. Present GM Joe Schoen traded three picks to move back into the first round to select Jaxson Dart at number 25. The Giants believe strongly that Dart is their quarterback of the future. Like in '04, the plan is to let Dart sit and learn behind another former Super Bowl winner, Russell Wilson.
Warner to Eli, Part Deux, right? There's just one not-so-small problem. Dart has thrown a monkey wrench into those plans. Through two preseason games, Dart is a combined 26/35 for 291 yards, 2 TDs and 0 INTs. His 117.7 passer rating is the best on the team, a full 45 points better than Wilson.
Dart has become THE football story of the preseason. Initially he was viewed as a mid second rounder that needed a lot of work to smooth out the rough edges. NFL.com gave him a 6.17 grade in their eval, listing him as a "good backup with the potential to develop into a starter."
That was no backup we saw Saturday night. Seven quarterbacks took the field at MetLife Stadium; four for the Giants and three for the Jets. Dart was better than all of them, and it wasn't even close. Head coach Brian Daboll has a real dilemma on his hands. On the one hand, it makes perfect sense to start the season with Wilson at the helm. Clearly someone at NFL headquarters has a sick sense of humor, because the Giants, coming off a 3-14 campaign in 2024, wound up with the toughest schedule of any team in the league this season. Throwing a promising young talent like Dart into that gauntlet could have disastrous consequences for the Giants. And if there's one thing this franchise can ill afford to do is fuck up another young quarterback. John Mara will skin both Daboll and Schoen alive if that happens.
On the other hand, while Wilson has been good, he's been on a downward trajectory since the 2020 season. At this point in his career, he is nothing more than a bridge to a successor. At least when the Giants signed Warner in '04, he was three years removed from his second Super Bowl appearance and led the league in passing yards with 4830 that season. Daboll, after two very disappointing years in which the fanbase was calling for his head, could hardly be blamed for wanting to roll the dice with the player he moved heaven and earth to land.
What to do? That is the question. If I were a betting man - and I'm not - I'd put my money on Wilson being the stater week one, with Dart as the backup. That means that Jameis Winston, whom Schoen signed to a two-year, $8 million guaranteed contract during the offseason, will likely be traded for a draft pick. No sense having an $8m asset on your books when you already have a bonafide starter waiting in the wings. And besides, the way Tommy DeVito has played this preseason, if he gets cut, he'll be picked up by another team quicker than you can say, "you want mashed potatoes with those cutlets?"
As for when Daboll makes the switch to Dart, I'm thinking week 10. That's because the first nine weeks of the schedule will be particularly daunting. Just take a gander at who the Giants play:
@ the Washington Commanders
@ the Dallas Cowboys
vs the Kansas City Chiefs
vs the L.A. Chargers
@ the New Orleans Saints
vs the Philadelphia Eagles
@ the Denver Broncos
@ the Philadelphia Eagles
vs the San Francisco 49ers
If they go 3-6 during that stretch, they'll be lucky. I've been a fan of the Giants since the dark days of Joe Pisarcik and John McVay. I've seen the football gods smile and frown on them. Trust me, they took a dump on the 50 yard line with this schedule. As much as I want to see Dart be the starting quarterback, I'd rather he not do it from inside a rubber room.
No, the sensible thing to do is let Wilson take his lumps as the starter in the first half. Then after week nine, thank him for his service, send him to the nearest triage unit, and have Dart close out the season.
If the Giants don't screw this up, they'll be in good shape for 2026 and beyond.
Of course when it comes to the Giants, "if" is a four-letter word.