Predicting Where the Giants Will Finish

The last time I made a prediction regarding the Giants was six years ago; let's just say that one didn't turn out so well. I had them in the Super Bowl against the Ravens. The Jints finished 7-9 that year. Oh, well.

That being said, I think that those who are predicting this team will finish 3-13 or 4-12 might be in for a shock. No, I'm not predicting they're going to be in the Super Bowl. I'm not making that mistake again. But I do think they will be better than last year, when they went 5-11. That's because of two factors: one, their schedule is somewhat easier than last year's; two, their offensive line is considerably better than last year's.

And it's the latter that will ultimately determine the fate of this team. I feel bad for Eli Manning. Over the last six seasons he has had to play behind arguably the worst offensive line in the NFL. Think about it: he's the same age as Philip Rivers and Ben Roethlisberger, and he's younger than Tom Brady. Yet no one has asked if any of these quarterbacks are over the hill. That's because the organizations these quarterbacks play for have given each of them the tools they've needed to succeed. The Giants, for some unknown reason, have left Eli out in the cold to fend for himself. And for a man who moves about as fast as glaciers melt, that has spelled disaster for him and his team.

But in the second half of last year, there were signs that this beleaguered offensive line was starting to jell. Both free agent Nate Solder and first year starter Will Hernandez got their legs under them. Eli finally had the time he needed to throw and the team went 4-4. The season finale at Met Life against the Cowboys went down to the wire. Only a last minute touchdown by Cole Beasley saved Dallas from a stunning loss.

This season, the offensive line will be even better with the additions of Kevin Zeitler and Mike Remmers, plus the return of Jon Halapio who broke his leg in week two last season. Granted, it still is ranked only 17th in the league, but given where it was last season, that's saying a lot. When you consider that last year the Giants scored the most points in their division, it's reasonable to assume that this year's team will score even more.

And they will need to. That's because the defense, which was a sieve last season, could be even worse this year. Dave Gettleman's decision to pass on Josh Allen with the 6th overall pick meant they lost an opportunity to draft a premiere pass rusher. Dexter Lawrence, who they took at 17, is good at stopping the run, but is a huge question mark against the pass. With this secondary, if the Jints can't get to the QB, Eli might have to put up 40 points a game just to have a shot at winning.

Overall, though, I like this Giants team's chances more than last year's. Saquon Barkley will improve upon his stellar rookie season and the receiving corps will more than compensate for the loss of Odell Beckham Jr., who is now Cleveland's headache. They should have no problem splitting the first four games, and if they stay healthy, they will be in the playoff hunt going into the last couple of games of the season.

Barring John Mara and Gettleman switching to Daniel Jones halfway through the season, which I don't think is likely given how both feel about Eli, I predict a 7-9 record and a third place finish.

Addition By Subtraction

Sorry this took so long; I would've written it earlier but I was trying to decide whether to jump off a bridge or just hang myself. Seriously, based on the responses I've been reading on social media and from the so-called football experts, you'd have thought the world came to an end yesterday. "The Giants got fleeced." "Worst trade since Ruth."

Let's be very clear here. Dave Gettleman did not break up the '79 Steelers. Yes, Odell Beckham, Jr. is a world-class receiver who now has a chance to turn the Cleveland Browns into a legitimate playoff contender - MAYBE - but the fact is that in the five years he played for the Giants, they had exactly one winning season - 11-5 with a wildcard berth in 2016 - and that was owed almost exclusively to one of the best overall defenses in the league.

His receptions were the stuff of legend, I get it. In fact, I can still remember that one-handed catch he made against the Cowboys at Met Life stadium on a Sunday night. Al Michaels to this day hasn't stopped hyperventilating over it. By the way, in case you were wondering, the Giants lost that game, along with so many of the games in which Beckham made otherworldly grabs. And that was the problem. He may have played as though he were descended from Mount Olympus, but his teammates never benefited from all that greatness.

And then there were the headaches. When you live among the gods, it's hard relating to mere mortals, and Beckham had more than his fair share of moments when the wrong thing would come out of his mouth. Last season's interview with ESPN in which he criticized the offensive play calling as well as his own quarterback may have been the straw that broke the camel's back. Yes, some of his concerns were valid, but the point is you don't throw your fellow players under the bus.

And who can forget the game against Carolina three years ago where Beckham got into a physical altercation with Panthers' cornerback Josh Norman. It was a disgraceful performance that earned Beckham a one-game suspension, and may very well have been responsible for accelerating the end of Tom Coughlin's coaching career. The Browns will now have the "pleasure" of dealing with his nonsense.

Face it, despite his talent, Beckham had become a distraction for this organization. For a team looking to rebuild, this was the best and only move they could've made. Frankly, given what the Steelers got for Antonio Brown - a third and fifth round pick - I’m kinda surprised Gettleman got the haul he did. In return for a troubled receiver that never got his team over the hump, the Giants landed the Browns' first and third round picks, plus a very good safety. The only downside to the trade is that because of the way his contract was structured, the Giants are saddled with $16 million in dead cap space. Ouch!

But apart from that bit of bad news, they can now go after Haskins with the 6th overall pick, assuming he’s still on the board by the time their turn comes up, and with the 17th pick they can choose a premium pass rusher. And if they still elect to trade for Josh Rosen, they can package a third and fourth round pick to get him without touching their top picks. In other words, Gettleman has a lot of leverage. If he doesn't trade any of them, he will have a total of 12 picks at his disposal to retool this team: both number ones, two picks in both the fourth and seventh round, three picks in the fifth, as well as single picks in the second, third and sixth.

Naturally, all this assumes that Gettleman has a good draft, but given his results from last year, I'm not that worried. With the exception of fourth rounder Kyle Lauletta, I thought the Giants had a pretty good draft. Second rounder Will Hernandez is a solid offensive lineman and both third rounders - Lorenzo Carter and B.J. Hill  - have been two of the few bright spots on an otherwise dreary defense. If anything, Gettleman has more picks to work with this year than he did last year.

Look, I'm not defending every move Gettleman has made. Why he didn't trade Landon Collins last season when he might've gotten a third rounder in return is baffling to say the least. And he did overpay for Nate Solder. But the first trade he made with Cleveland in which he got offensive lineman Kevin Zeitler in return for under-achieving linebacker Olivier Vernon sorely addressed a team need and saved $1.5 million in cap space, to boot.

In fact, the only major decision Gettleman has to make - apart from who he picks in the draft - is whether to bring back Eli Manning for what will likely be his last year in big blue. The 38 year old is set to make $23 million this season, but $5 million of that is from a bonus that's due to be paid March 17. If Gettleman decides to release Manning now, he would save that money and the dead cap hit would only be $6 million, but then that would mean turning over the reigns to a rookie quarterback on day one. I'm not sure Gettleman wants to put that much pressure on Haskins or Lock or whomever he picks as his next signal caller.

Bottom line, I think the Giants are in a better position now than they were 24 hours ago. No they aren't going to the playoffs, much less win a Super Bowl. But then only an incurable optimist would've thought they were a contender prior to the Beckham trade. When it comes to running a sports organization, I subscribe to the Bill Parcells theory: if you can't win with what you have, tear it down and start over.

If we know anything about the NFL, it's that, with the exception of the Patriots, a team's fortunes can turn on a dime. This year's rebuild can become next year's playoff team. Want proof? Take a look at the '83 and '84 Giants teams. The former finished in last place; the latter made the postseason.

Reese's Pieces

So now that Tom Coughlin has "resigned" as Giants' head coach, the sixty-four thousand question that begs to be answered is why didn't Jerry Reese "resign" as well. Because if it's fair game to hold Coughlin accountable for how the wheels came off this season, it's only reasonable to hold Reese accountable for providing the wheels in the first place.

Look, Coughlin did a poor job this year. That's fairly obvious, but he didn't exactly have the '72 Dolphins to work with. It is the G.M.'s job to give his coach the tools to win and Reese has done a lousy job. The offense, save for Eli Manning and Odell Beckham, Jr, is paper thin, and the once vaunted defense is the worst in the NFL. That wasn't Coughlin's fault. Indeed, the two-time Superbowl-winning coach had almost no support from his front office. Jerry Reese took the reigns from Ernie Accorsi who had carefully built two championship teams.

In addition to drafting Manning, the list of players Accorsi either drafted or signed includes Justin Tuck, Osi Umenyiora, Antonio Pierce, Chris Snee, Plaxico Burress, Ahmad Bradshaw and Brandon Jacobs. He also hired Coughlin. By comparison, Reese brought in Victor Cruz, Jason Pierre Paul and Beckham and little more. While all three were considerable additions, they weren't nearly enough to propel the team by themselves. As Accorsi's players either retired or departed for other teams, Reese's replacements couldn't cut it.

Whoever the Giants pick to coach the team in 2016, this much is certain: if Reese doesn't do a considerably better job at bringing in talent, the results will be the same. Another disappointing season and another year in which Eli Manning will not have a shot at winning a Superbowl. The Mara family has a long history of being patient, sometimes to a fault, with their employees. They certainly showed that patience with Coughlin. Virtually any other coach would've been fired a year or two ago. Just look at what happened to Chip Kelly after just one losing season in Philadelphia. But their reluctance to fire Reese might well come back to haunt them. While Reese may be only the third general manager since 1979, he is by far the least effective.

And now he is tasked with rebuilding a team he had a huge role in dismembering.