The Giants Glass is Half Full

It sucks losing, I know; it particularly sucks when the opponent you lose to resides 90 miles down the Jersey Turnpike. And, trust me, Eagles fans will be insufferable if their team goes on to win the Super Bowl next month. When they won their first title in 2017, you'd have thought Vince Lombardi and Bart Starr had been resurrected from the dead. Philadelphia may be the city of brotherly love, but its sports fans can be pompous assholes.

But while the final score on Saturday may have been lopsided, in no way, shape or form did it detract from what the Giants accomplished this season. Despite what Mike Francesa said, this team exceeded all expectations. Coming off a 4-13 record - their fifth losing campaign in a row - the so-called football "experts" scoffed at the notion that Brian Daboll and Co. could turn this ship around. Indeed, yours truly had them going 6-11. That they finished 9-7-1, and made it all the way to the Divisional round of the playoffs, should qualify as the "Ripley's Believe It Or Not" story of the decade.

So now what? With the season over, what comes next? Yes, the glass is half full instead of half empty, but at the end of the day it doesn't matter. You still have half a glass of water. They may have been the most resilient team in the NFL but spit and polish doesn't get you a Super Bowl ring. As painful as it was to watch the Eagles humiliate the Giants on national TV, they were the better team in every measurable way.

Joe Schoen has his work cut out for him. Thanks to his predecessor's incompetence, he was saddled with roughly $53 million in dead cap this past season. He also had another $21.1 million of useless salary on the books in the person of Kenny Golladay, whose lone touchdown came in week 18 at Philly. Next season, Golladay's cap hit will be $21.4 million. If the Giants buy him out after June 1, the dead cap hit would be $7.9 million in 2023 and $6.8 million in 2024. When you factor in the $3.6 million in dead cap from Kadarius Toney, the Giants will have about $58 million in available cap space to go shipping with during the off season. 

That may seem like a lot of money, but it really isn't. That's because the lion's share of it will go to Daniel Jones and Saquon Barkley, assuming Schoen elects to re-sign them. And based on what they did in 2022, it's hard to imagine them not coming back. 

Jones threw for 3205 yards with 15 touchdowns and only 5 interceptions. He also rushed for a club record 708 yards. His quarterback rating of 60.8 was 7th best in the NFL. To say he had a career year would be an understatement. Barkley had his best season as a Giant since his rookie year with 1312 rushing yards, good for 4th best in the league. More than that, he proved he could stay healthy, which was a major concern going into the season. Both players have expressed a desire to return in 2023.

But at what cost? Jones and Barkley made $8.3 and $7.2 million respectively this season. A three-year deal for Jones would likely come in around $35 million per season. Barkley supposedly turned down a three-year, $36 million offer and is reportedly looking for a contract similar to the $16 million Christian McCaffrey is making. Let's say both sides meet in the middle. $14 million plus $35 million comes out to $49 million. For those with an adding machine, that comes to $49 million, which leaves Schoen with just $9 million to plug the many holes on this team. If you were paying close attention throughout the season, you know that isn't nearly enough.

For the Giants to become genuine contenders, two areas in particular must be beefed up: wide receiver and linebacker. Regarding the former, the Giants were the only playoff team not to have a 1,000 yard receiver. Darius Slayton led them with 724 yards; Richie James, who dropped a sure touchdown on Saturday, was next with 569; and Jones's favorite target, Isaiah Hodgins - a pick up from Buffalo after being waived - had 392. It's obvious that Schoen will have to go through the draft to land an elite receiver.

Regarding the latter, the way the Eagles ran roughshod all over the Giants both on Saturday and at MetLife in December should tell you everything you need to know about their lack of depth at this position. Clearly, Jihad Ward and Jaylon Smith weren't the answers here. Again, with limited cap space, Schoen may have to address this need through the draft as well. 

One tool available to him that could help is the franchise tag. Each team is permitted to franchise tag one player per season. Considering how expensive both Jones and Barkley might be to retain, Schoen could go that route with one of them to save some cap space. And if he can get a couple of players to renegotiate their contracts, that will help as well. One thing is certain: the talent gap that exists between the Giants and the top teams in the league isn't going to be bridged anytime soon.

Bottom line: this is still a rebuild. A rebuild that may be ahead of schedule, but a rebuild nonetheless. As Schoen emphasized in his press conference yesterday, patience is important. "Teams are never one player away," he said.

It's reassuring having adults run the show, isn't it?

Managing Expectations for Giants Fans

Well, it's that time of year again when the hopes of Giants fans everywhere spring eternal, where visions of playoff appearances dance like sugar plums in their heads. 

Of course, deep down, we all know how this ends. A cruel and unforgiving schedule exposes the flaws, and hope quickly turns to despair. Another year lost, another postseason deferred. Reality sucks in Big Blue land.

So why should this season be any different? In one sense, it won't be. Joe Schoen and Brian Daboll are considerable upgrades over Dave Gentleman and Joe Judge. But when you dig a hole halfway to China, as the prior regime did, it's gonna take a while to climb out.

Let's not forget how long it took George Young to turn around this franchise. It would behoove Giants fans to manage their expectations over the next couple of seasons. Success will be measured incrementally. There are no "win and rebuild" short cuts when it comes to football. Gettleman couldn't accept that fact and wasted two whole years trying to prove everyone wrong. Schoen won't make that mistake. He spent the last five seasons helping turn the Buffalo Bills into a bonafide Super Bowl contender. He and Daboll will eventually do the same here in New York. Be patient and trust the process.

But in the meantime, though, the 2022 season beckons. As strange as it might seem, the schedule isn't as bad as past seasons. That doesn't mean the Jints are going to the playoffs, but it could mean that a repeat of last year's 4-13 travesty isn't necessarily a given.

A lot depends on two things: 1. Can Daboll and offensive coordinator Mike Kafka fix what's wrong with Daniel Jones? The 6th overall pick in the 2019 NFL draft showed some promise in his rookie year but has struggled mightily since. If they can improve his pocket presence and decision making, maybe - just maybe - the Giants might not have to look for a new quarterback in next year's draft. It's a tall order, given Jones proclivities, but my gut tells me both men are up to the task. Don't expect miracles; the goal should be steady improvement.

2. Can Saquon Barkley stay healthy and productive? The overall number one pick in the 2018 NFL draft rushed for 1307 yards and was rookie of the year, but has been beset by injuries the last three seasons. In 2021, he rushed for only 593 yards. For this team to have any chance of being competitive, both players have to have impactful seasons.

So let's be optimistic and assume Daboll and Kafka can resuscitate Jones's career and Barkley stays healthy. What can we expect? Given that there's still plenty that's wrong with this team - the OL, the secondary - not much. But like I mentioned above, improving on last season's 4-13 record isn't out of the question.

Looking at the schedule, I see a number of winnable games. The Carolina Panthers (week two), the Chicago Bears (week four), the Jacksonville Jaguars (week seven), the Houston Texans (week nine), and the Detroit Lions (week ten). That's five wins right there. Let's assume the Giants split their two games with the Washington Commanders; that's six wins.

6-11 might not seem like much, but for an organization that's been moribund most of the last decade, it's something to build on; and for a football operation charged with the reclamation project of a lifetime, it's a good beginning.

Predicting Where the Giants Will Finish

The last time I made a prediction regarding the Giants was six years ago; let's just say that one didn't turn out so well. I had them in the Super Bowl against the Ravens. The Jints finished 7-9 that year. Oh, well.

That being said, I think that those who are predicting this team will finish 3-13 or 4-12 might be in for a shock. No, I'm not predicting they're going to be in the Super Bowl. I'm not making that mistake again. But I do think they will be better than last year, when they went 5-11. That's because of two factors: one, their schedule is somewhat easier than last year's; two, their offensive line is considerably better than last year's.

And it's the latter that will ultimately determine the fate of this team. I feel bad for Eli Manning. Over the last six seasons he has had to play behind arguably the worst offensive line in the NFL. Think about it: he's the same age as Philip Rivers and Ben Roethlisberger, and he's younger than Tom Brady. Yet no one has asked if any of these quarterbacks are over the hill. That's because the organizations these quarterbacks play for have given each of them the tools they've needed to succeed. The Giants, for some unknown reason, have left Eli out in the cold to fend for himself. And for a man who moves about as fast as glaciers melt, that has spelled disaster for him and his team.

But in the second half of last year, there were signs that this beleaguered offensive line was starting to jell. Both free agent Nate Solder and first year starter Will Hernandez got their legs under them. Eli finally had the time he needed to throw and the team went 4-4. The season finale at Met Life against the Cowboys went down to the wire. Only a last minute touchdown by Cole Beasley saved Dallas from a stunning loss.

This season, the offensive line will be even better with the additions of Kevin Zeitler and Mike Remmers, plus the return of Jon Halapio who broke his leg in week two last season. Granted, it still is ranked only 17th in the league, but given where it was last season, that's saying a lot. When you consider that last year the Giants scored the most points in their division, it's reasonable to assume that this year's team will score even more.

And they will need to. That's because the defense, which was a sieve last season, could be even worse this year. Dave Gettleman's decision to pass on Josh Allen with the 6th overall pick meant they lost an opportunity to draft a premiere pass rusher. Dexter Lawrence, who they took at 17, is good at stopping the run, but is a huge question mark against the pass. With this secondary, if the Jints can't get to the QB, Eli might have to put up 40 points a game just to have a shot at winning.

Overall, though, I like this Giants team's chances more than last year's. Saquon Barkley will improve upon his stellar rookie season and the receiving corps will more than compensate for the loss of Odell Beckham Jr., who is now Cleveland's headache. They should have no problem splitting the first four games, and if they stay healthy, they will be in the playoff hunt going into the last couple of games of the season.

Barring John Mara and Gettleman switching to Daniel Jones halfway through the season, which I don't think is likely given how both feel about Eli, I predict a 7-9 record and a third place finish.