NHL Playoff Predictions - Play-in Round

After a four and half month sabbatical due to the Coronavirus pandemic, the NHL Stanley Cup playoffs will finally get under way August 1. The two hub cities - Toronto and Edmonton - will host the playoffs; Toronto the Eastern conference, Edmonton the Western conference.

The Play-in round - or as we used to call it back in the day the preliminary round - will consist of four best of five series per conference between the lower eight teams: five through twelve. The winners will play the top four teams in each conference. Because the top four teams play three games each in a round robin the final seeding is yet to be determined. That and the fact that the league has decided to reseed after each round, makes it impossible to predict what the matchups will be in the second round.

However, we do know, and have known for some time, what the matchups are for this round. Before I get into my picks, some observations. First, there's no way of knowing what effect such a long layoff will have on each team. Consider that in the 1991-92 season, the Rangers were the clear favorites to win the Cup. Then the players went out on strike just before the playoffs began, and even though the stoppage lasted only last ten days, it was enough to disrupt the Blueshirts momentum heading into the tournament. They struggled to beat the Devils in seven in the first round, then got ousted by the Penguins in the second. Just imagine what the Bruins must be thinking.

That being said, since everyone's in the same boat, my gut tells me that the best talented teams will prevail, assuming, that is, that no one tests positive for the virus. If a Sidney Crosby, an Artemi Panarin, or an Alex Ovechkin were to test positive, that would be a game changer. The fact that the playoffs are taking place north of the border in two Canadian cities where the virus for the most part is under control gives me hope that the NHL, of all the sports leagues in North America, may come out unscathed.

So, without further ado, let's get started.

Eastern Conference:

Penguins (5) vs. Canadiens (12). Forget all the hype about Carey Price possibly stealing this series for the Habs. They're just not that good a team. Meanwhile, Pittsburgh has the scoring to turn this into a laugher pretty quickly. Pens in three.

Hurricanes (6) vs. Rangers (11). Now you know why Carolina voted no to this playoff format. The Blueshirts, in addition to sweeping the season series against the Hurricanes, had one of the best second-half records in the NHL. When you consider they have two of the best forwards in the league playing on two separate lines, top scoring on the backline and superior goaltending, if Dougie Hamilton can't go, this could get ugly fast. Rangers in four.

Islanders (7) vs. Panthers (10). The Putty Tats do have balanced scoring up front, I'll give them that, but the Islanders style of play and defensive-minded system will take its toll. Both coaches are Cup winners, but only one has the players that can win in the trenches. Isles in four.

Maple Leafs (8) vs. Blue Jackets (9). If the Leafs can't win a series with all the games played in their own host city they should be ashamed of themselves. Fortunately for them they catch a break here. John Tortorella is a great coach but, unlike last season when his team swept the Lightning, he doesn't have the horses this time around. Leafs in five.

Western Conference:

Oilers (5) vs. Blackhawks (12). How pissed are the Oilers? By all rights, they should be the four seed playing round-robin games. Instead they get stuck playing the Hawks, who, let's be honest, are at least three seasons removed from being a serious playoff contender. Leon Draisaitl and Connor McDavid are going to have a field day. Edmonton is putting together a team that looks strangely like the one that captured five Cups in seven years three decades ago. Oilers in three.

Predators (6) vs. Coyotes (11). With Nashville, you never know what you're going to get. Since going to the finals three seasons ago, they've been perennial underachievers. Against a Phoenix team that's somewhat undermanned, they should prevail, but I wouldn't bet any money on them. Preds in five.

Canucks (7) vs. Wild (10). When J.T. Miller is your leading scorer that's not saying much. Still against a Minnesota team that did its best to put the rest of the league to sleep this season that might be enough. Interesting tidbit: Miller will be facing another ex-Rangers teammate in Mats Zuccarello, which will only mean something in New York. Canucks in five.

Flames (8) vs. Jets (9). Call this a tossup. Two seasons ago, the Jets made it all the way to the conference finals before being upset by the Vegas Golden Knights. So that's probably enough to tilt the series in their favor. Plus they have the likely Vezina trophy winner. Jets in five.

As in my past predictions, don't put much stock in these. I do them primarily for fun.

Enjoy the games. We've certainly waited long enough for them.

The NHL Says "Game On!"

The announcement that the NHL and the NHLPA have agreed on a plan to resume the 2019-20 season is good news to the millions of hockey fans throughout the U.S. and Canada. While the league still hasn't set a hard start date for play to resume, nor decided on which two locations will serve as host cities, this much we do know:

The balance of the regular season will be canceled. Any and all awards, including the Hart and Vezina trophies, will be determined based on the stats at the time play was suspended.

Each team will be limited to a total of 50 personnel, including 28 skaters and 3 goalies. The league is considering banning all fighting and requiring players to wear full face shields to reduce spread of droplets.

Training camps should begin sometime in early July, with the playoffs commencing by the end of the month or early August. The Stanley Cup final will likely be played in late September or early October, depending on conditions and length of series.

The playoff format will consist of 12 teams per conference for a total of 24. The top four teams in each conference will play a round robin to determine seeding and all will receive a bye. The final eight teams in each conference will face off against each other in a best of five as follows: 5 vs. 12, 6 vs. 11, 7 vs. 10 and 8 vs. 9. The winners of those series will go on to play the top seeds in the second round. It has yet to be determined whether those series will be a best of five or best of seven. Both the conference and league finals will be a best of seven.

The eight losers in the opening round will join the seven teams that did not qualify for the postseason in the draft lottery, which the league still plans on holding in June, even though we won't know who the losers of the opening round will be until August. They will be designated teams A through H.

Some observations on the playoff format.

There will be a total of five rounds, so even if the first two rounds are best of five, it is conceivable that the team that wins the Cup could wind up playing as many as 31 games, three more than a typical playoff season. And that means the toughest championship in professional sports to win is about to become even tougher.

Both Montreal and Chicago will qualify for the tournament under this plan, even though neither team had a winning record. While this is not the first time the NHL has had teams with sub-500 records in the playoffs, there is, understandably, some concern that either or both could pull off an upset over a better team. Last year, the Tampa Bay Lightning - the President's Trophy winner - got swept by the Columbus Blue Jackets. In a best of five, all it would take is a couple of lucky bounces here and there for lightning to strike twice, no pun intended. Still, the likelihood of that happening is fairly remote. As good a goalie as Carey Price is, the Canadiens were still a mediocre team at best; and as far as the Blackhawks are concerned, Jonathan Toews and Patrick Kane's best days are way behind them. Shame on the NHL if either makes it to the third round, much less the Cup finals.

The three round robin games that the top four teams in each conference will have to play to determine seeding is extremely unfair to the Boston Bruins. When the season was suspended back in March, the Bruins had an eight-point lead over the second place Lightning. Thanks to this format, they could drop all the way down to fourth, meaning if each favorite team in the opening (play-in) round prevails, they would be stuck playing a tougher opponent in the next round. Beantown should be pissed.

The Rangers caught a huge break. They were on the outside looking in when play was halted. Now, thanks to Providence, they're first-round opponent is the Carolina Hurricanes, a team they went 4 - 0 against during the regular season, and a team they stack up very well against. In fact, of all the first-round series, the Blueshirts have the best shot at pulling off an upset. In fact, here's another tidbit to nibble on. If the current seeding among the top four does not change and the league doesn't reseed after the opening round, the Rangers next opponent would be the Washington Capitals and not the Boston Bruins. While Caps are hardly chopped liver, I'd much rather play them than the Bruins. In other words, for a team that's still considered in the early stages of a rebuild, they could make it all the way to the third round. How 'bout them apples?

All things considered, this was the best possible way for the NHL to resume play. It rewards the top teams with a bye; it gives teams that were only a few points out of a playoff spot with ten games to go  a new lease on life; and by expanding the tournament to include cities like Chicago and Montreal with a postseason berth, it will generate ad revenue from those cities, which will help the bottom line of the league going into next season. Kudos to Gary Bettman for not blowing this.

Given that the NBA still doesn't know whether it will play the balance of its regular season before starting the playoffs and that Major League Baseball is currently locked in a dispute between ownership and the union over how much revenue the players will give up in a shortened season, hockey might be the only game in town this summer. The last time that happened was never.

I don't know about you but I can't wait for the puck to drop.