Monday, October 2, 2023

David Stearns' To-Do List


Well, it's over.

The season from hell that started with such high expectations finally came to a merciless end Sunday in typical fashion: with a failure to get a timely hit and an overtaxed bullpen imploding. A team that won 101 games last year and went to the playoffs, limped to the finish line with a measly 75 wins this year. Disappointing doesn't begin to describe it.

And now with the formal introduction of David Stearns as President of Baseball Operations, the Mets most consequential offseason in over a decade begins. Stearns comes with an impressive resume. In his eight years running the Milwaukee Brewers, they made the postseason five times including this year. He will have his work cut out for him here.

At the risk of being presumptuous, I've whittled Stearns' to-do list down to a precious five.

The Manager: The news that Buck Showalter would not be returning next season should come as no surprise to anyone who was paying attention. While Buck was certainly not to blame for the injuries to Edwin Diaz and Starling Marte, or the less than stellar performance of Max Scherzer, some of his moves this season were puzzling, to say the least.

One game in particular stands out. It was against the Rockies in Colorado in late May when the Mets were still in contention. Buck elected to start Marte in centerfield even though he hadn't played there in two years and he was clearly hobbled by a nagging groin injury. When he was unable to catch up to a line drive in the bottom of the 4th inning, three runs scored. The following inning Buck allowed Stephen Nogosek to get smacked around with no one warming up in the bullpen. The Rockies scored five runs in that inning and went on to win 11-10.

Now that Buck is gone, Stearns and G.M. Billy Eppler will be tasked with finding a replacement who can effectively and more consistently manage this team. The obvious choice is Craig Counsell who has piloted the Brewers since 2015, when he replaced Ron Roenicke. In 2018, he took the Brewers to the NLCS, where they lost to the Dodgers in seven games. He has a record of 707-625, and the fact that he worked for Stearns should give him a leg up on the competition.

Pete Alonso: Stearns made it clear in his press conference that he has no intentions of trading the first baseman during the offseason, saying "I expect Pete to be the opening day first baseman." That is certainly welcomed news for a fanbase that hasn't had much to cheer about lately. And by lately, I mean eight years.

But saying you're not going to trade Alonso is one thing; actually signing him to a long-term deal that will keep him in Flushing is quite another. While no one knows exactly where the negotiations left off between Steve Cohen and Alonso's agent, we can assume the sticking point was term. Alonso would obviously like a long-term contract; the Mets would probably prefer a shorter term.

Given that Cohen was willing to give Carlos Correa $315 million over 12 years, it's going to be pretty difficult playing hard ball with a homegrown guy who, as I pointed out in August, might well finish his career with 700 plus home runs. If I had to guess, I'd say both sides settle on 9 years and $300 million. That would put Alonso just behind Francisco Lindor's $34 million annual salary.

The Starting Rotation: The "dynamic duo" of Scherzer and Justin Verlander - at $43 million a piece - was a case study in how not to build a starting rotation. The former never fully recovered from a torn oblique he suffered last season; the latter missed the first month of this season. Eppler was able to get the return he did because Cohen was willing to eat more than $80 million in salary owed both pitchers. It's fair to say the owner would prefer not to do that again.

The Mets have shown interest in Yoshinobu Yamamoto, the Japanese ace scouts think could be better than Kodai Senga, who turned out to be one of the best pitchers in baseball this season. A starting rotation featuring these two pitchers would be a formidable one-two punch.

But even with Yamamoto and Senga, the Mets still have questions. Like who's going to be the third, fourth and fifth starter? Tylor Megill had a good second half, so perhaps he could compete for the third or fourth spot. Beyond that it's anyone's guess what Stearns will do.

The Bullpen: It cannot be overstated what losing Diaz for the season did to a bullpen that was already thin to begin with. Getting him back next season will be a huge relief, no pun intended.

But like the starting rotation, the pen has plenty of holes that Stearns will have to fill. Does he bring back David Robertson as a setup man? Does he trade for Diaz's younger brother Alexis, who had 37 saves for the Cincinnati Reds this season and is arbitration eligible, to give the Mets a dual closer threat?

The Kids: One of the few bright spots this season has been the emergence of catcher Francisco Alvarez as a genuine talent behind the plate and the development of infielders Brett Baty, Mark Vientos and Ronny Mauricio. Alvarez looks like the real deal. The rookie hit 25 homers and drove in 63 runs. But while the infielders showed promise, they are still works in progress. Stearns may elect to keep all three or he could dangle one or more as trade bait if he believes he can get a proven outfielder, infielder or pitcher in return.

The good news is the Mets finally have their front office in place. Now it's up to them to build a championship team.


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