Friday, December 10, 2021

Claude Giroux to Rangers Makes Sense



Normally, I am not a huge believer in making mid-season blockbuster deals. Almost invariably they don't pan out. The lone exceptions are a) when a team is close to winning it all and needs that extra boost to put it over the top, or b) when a team is on a downward trajectory and is looking to clean house.

The Rangers have gone through both. In 1994, then GM Neil Smith traded away young talent to acquire the final pieces for what he believed would be the franchise's best chance of capturing its first Stanley Cup championship since 1940. In 2018, then GM Jeff Gorton came to the conclusion that the team he and Glen Sather had assembled had run its course and it was time to tear it down and start over.

Both men, as it turns out, were right in their assessments. Smith's moves got him his Cup later that Spring, though it came at a steep price; and Gorton's rebuild, though he is not around to enjoy it, has produced a team that is turning heads and making some rather loud noise.

That 1994 Rangers team will always be treasured by its fans. As for this year's team, the jury is still out. There are times when they play like Cup contenders; then there are times when their flaws are exposed by better, more competent teams. 

The loss at the hands of the Colorado Avalanche Wednesday night could be explained away as simply a team that was exhausted after playing the night before and not getting back to New York until early in the morning. And to be honest, they looked sluggish from the opening draw. When you play like that against the second best offense in the league with a rookie goaltender in net, you're going to get lit up. And that's exactly what happened; the Avalanche scored five goals in the second period on their way to a 7-3 thrashing.

But I would be remiss if I didn't point out that this team, as exciting and fun as it's been to watch, has a few holes in it that need filling. And if Chris Drury is half the GM I think he is, he will be working the phones between now and the trade deadline in March looking to address them.

First off, let's put the kibosh on the Patrick Kane talk. Yes, he's an upgrade over anything the Rangers currently have on right wing, but the cost of acquiring him would be prohibitive. For starters, you'd be looking at giving up Kaapo Kakko, Nils Lundkvist, and a high-round draft pick for a 33 year-old forward with a $10.5 million cap hit who is a UFA after 2023. Even if the Blackhawks were willing to eat half of Kane's contract through next season - and that's a big if - the Rangers would still be on the hook for the remaining $5.25 million.

And that means any hope Drury has of re-signing Ryan Strome is all but gone. You didn't seriously think Strome's agent would be dumb enough to let his client sign a team-friendly deal to keep him on Broadway AFTER that team moved heaven and earth to land a player who's five years older and making twice the money, did you?

So, if the Rangers do indeed acquire Kane, it's with the understanding that the window to win a Cup is this year, and this year only. Anyone who thinks this is the correct move for a franchise coming out of a four-year rebuild has taken one too many pucks to the head. At least when Smith sold off his team's future, he already had a division title and a President's trophy under his belt. All Drury has at the moment is a team that has gotten off to a surprisingly good start.

But if it's not Kane, then who? That depends on which position Drury thinks needs more fortifying. The defense looks set. After a rough start, Patrik Nemeth seems to be settling in as Lundkvist's partner on the third pairing. So that leaves right wing and center in most need of attention.

Since Sammy Blais went down with a torn ACL, the Rangers have been scrambling to find a replacement for him. Let's face it: Julien Gauthier is not it. He has the speed and he has the size, he just can't finish. I swear if he had an empty net to shoot at he'd hit the cross bar. His one and only goal of the season came as a result of a turnover he caused against the Montreal Canadiens. Between him and Dryden Hunt, at least Hunt knows what to do with the puck when he gets it on his stick.

With that in mind, I am on record as saying the logical move to make here is to acquire Reilly Smith from the Vegas Golden Knights. Unlike Kane, Smith is a UFA after this season, so he'd be a rental. No apple cart to upset, no cap hell to deal with after the season. And the cost should be considerably lower, say a mid-round draft pick and a prospect not named Braden Schneider or Will Cuylle. And best of all, he was on the team that went to the finals under Gerard Gallant in 2018 so he's familiar with his system. With 10 tallies already on the season, he'd be the second-leading goal scorer on this team. Gallant can slot him on the first, second or third lines.

Why would the Golden Knights give up a player like Smith? Because they're $10 million over the cap once Jack Eichel comes back from LTIR. Smith's contract is worth $5 million, so they'd have to shed an additional $5 mill to get compliant. That's Kelly McCrimmon's problem. With cap space to spare, all Drury has to concern himself with is getting the best possible player to help his team. 

But if Drury really wants to roll the dice and land the biggest fish in the pond that could actually help his team get to the finals, he should probably turn his attention south towards the city of brotherly love. It's no secret that the Philadelphia Flyers are not a good team. The moves Chuck Fletcher made during the offseason not only failed to address the biggest areas of concern the team has, they depleted the valuable draft capital he is going to need to rebuild.  

When Fletcher finally does decide to start his selloff - I figure by mid-January - the first to go will likely be Claude Giroux. At 33, and in the last year of a $8.275 million AAV contract, Giroux checks all the boxes. He can play center or wing, he can shoot, he can pass and he's a leader in the locker room. In 967 games - all with the Flyers - he has amassed 282 goals and 597 assists for 879 points. And best of all, his winning face-off percentage is an outstanding 62 percent this season. The last two years, it was 59 and 59.6 percent respectively. No one on this Rangers' team even comes close.

Just picture Giroux centering a third line with Alexis Lafreniere on the left and Julien Gauthier on the right. Imagine the nightmare having three scoring lines would create for opposing coaches. Every line would have a bonafide playmaker on it. And if you're wondering what this means for Filip Chytil, the answer is pretty obvious. This is now his fourth year in the NHL and far from progressing, he appears to be regressing. With the goal and assist he picked up against the Avalanche, Chytil now has 6 points on the season. To put that in perspective, Barclay Goodrow, the player Drury brought in for grit purposes, has 10. Like it or not, it's time to admit the painful truth: Chytil, like Lias Andersson, was a bust. When your fourth line is generating more scoring chances than your third line, that's a problem. 

But there are two obstacles standing in the way of the Rangers being able to get their hands on Giroux. The first concerns the center's no-move clause. Giroux has been emphatic: he wants to stay in Philly and he's not willing to waive his NMC. Fletcher would have to convince him that a trade is the best thing for him since it's unlikely the team would re-sign him during the offseason. And if his agent is good at basic math, he's probably already informed his client that the Flyers don't have enough cap space next year to retain him anyway.

So let's assume that Giroux has a change of heart and agrees to waive his NMC. What haul would Fletcher demand for his services? He already gave up a first and a second round pick to Buffalo in exchange for Rasmus Ristolainen, a defenseman who makes Nemeth look like Brian Leetch. I figure Fletcher probably wants to turn the tables on an opposing GM to recoup his losses. Under no circumstances should Drury part with his own number one for a rental. A fair trade would be Chytil and one of the Rangers' two second round picks. Drury should be firm and tell Fletcher to take it or leave it. If Fletcher still wants another body, Drury can throw in Tim Gettinger. The perennial Hartford product has 6 goals and 11 points for the Wolf Pack and at 6'6" and 218 lbs, would make an ideal Flyer.

How would trading for Giroux affect the negotiations between Drury and Strome's agent? Not nearly as much as trading for Kane would. If anything, by moving Chytil's $2.3 million contract, it frees up the cap space needed to re-sign Strome to an extension that would keep him paired with Artemi Panarin for the next four years. After this season, Goodrow could then move up and center the third line. He's already centering the fourth line so what's the big deal? With Lafrienere on the left and a healthy and re-signed Blais on the right, the Rangers would have a solid, if unspectacular, third line. And if they opt to move on from Blais, they have Cuylle waiting in the wings. The more I see of this kid, and this year's first rounder Brennan Othmann, the more impressed I become with this organization.

The bottom line is this: Giroux to the Rangers makes sense. In fact, either a Giroux or Smith rental would improve this team considerably without mortgaging its future, which is looking brighter and brighter by the day. And, dare I say it, transform it into a legitimate Stanley Cup contender.

Yes, I dare.



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