There have been a number of surprises in the NHL so far this season; some pleasant, some not so pleasant. Two of the more pleasant surprises have been the Minnesota Wild and the Calgary Flames. Both are leading their respective divisions; the former with the second-best offense in the league and the latter with the stingiest defense. The Flames might be the biggest surprise of all; last season in a realigned North Division, they couldn't even beat out a Montreal Canadiens team that had no business being in the playoffs. As things stand now, they are the early odds-on favorite to emerge from the Western Conference.
Heading up the not so pleasant surprises are the New York Islanders, a team that last season was five wins away from hoisting the Stanley Cup, and the year before fell six games short. As of this writing, they are tied with the Canadiens for the third fewest points in the league with 15; only the Ottawa Senators (13) and the Arizona Coyotes (12) have fewer.
Many have speculated as to what happened to this team. After careful consideration, I have come up with three things:
1. The early schedule. There's no getting around it. Opening up with thirteen straight road games to start the season was a tactical blunder. The moment management - and by management, I mean Lou Lamoriello - knew that UBS Arena was not going to be ready in time for the beginning of the 2021-22 season, there should've been a backup plan in place. You can't tell me that Lamoriello couldn't have arranged to play a couple of games at the Barclay Center or the Nassau Coliseum until UBS was ready. Forcing this team to play away from home for a month took its toll on the players. At one point, they were 5-2-2; then the roof caved in on them. Inexcusable.
2. The injury bug and Covid outbreak. As if the road trip from hell wasn't bad enough, the injury bug bit them, and right after that a Covid outbreak hit. When they finally did open their season at UBS, almost half the roster was either on IR or in quarantine. Not even the deepest of teams can overcome that many players being out of the lineup. In all fairness, the league should've postponed their games against the Maple Leafs, Rangers and Penguins. They looked like a minor league team out there against those opponents.
3. The offense has been MIA. Even before the start of their eleven game skid, the Isles were hardly an offensive juggernaut. Over their first nine games, they scored 25 goals, an average of 2.8 goals per game. Indeed, during the Lamoriello / Barry Trotz reign, this team has consistently ranked near the bottom of the league in goals for while finishing near the top in goals against. The problem with relying on a formula that puts so much emphasis on defense at the expense of offense is that your margin for error is already slim. During this losing streak, they scored a paltry 13 goals. That's an average of 1.2 goals per game. No matter how good your defense is - they currently rank 6th in the league - you still need to put the puck in the net in order to win. Players like Matt Barzal, Brock Nelson and Anders Lee are simply not good enough to carry this team. Anywhere else, they'd be second or third liners, at best.
Throughout his long and brilliant career, Lou Lamoriello has eschewed stars for underachievers who were willing to check their egos at the door for the good of the team. When he ran the New Jersey Devils, his teams specialized in employing the trap, one of the most boring systems ever thrust upon the NHL. It led to five finals appearances, three Cup championships and universal scorn from more talented teams who were often frustrated by the discipline Lou's players exhibited.
Since Lamoriello and Trotz arrived on the Island, no team in the NHL has been more difficult to play against than the Islanders. Their patience and brand of physicality are tailored made for deep playoff runs that over the last two years damn near paid off. So successful was their strategy, I picked them to win the Stanley Cup this season.
But the rash of injuries and Covid cases has exposed a fatal flaw in Lamoriello's method of madness. At a time when the team desperately could've used an elite player or two to carry them through this period, the plethora of gritty players he has assembled have been badly overmatched. When you live by the sword, you sometimes die by it. And right now, this team is hemorrhaging.
However, it's still early in the season. This team should be back to full strength before Christmas. If they can get back to the .500 mark by the end of December, there's still a chance they can sneak into the playoffs as a wildcard. And if they do sneak in, they will be very difficult to beat.
How difficult? Just ask the Tampa Bay Lightning, who needed all seven games in last year's semifinals to dispatch them, what it's like to play against the Islanders. Or the Boston Bruins, who got the shit kicked out of them in last year's quarterfinals. The only thing harder than losing to the Islanders, is beating them. Of the last four games they lost, all were by one goal, three in overtime. Does anyone think for a moment that with a healthy lineup those couldn't have been wins?
They have the goaltending, they have the defense. The only thing that might trip them up is that they happen to play in the Metropolitan Division, the best division in hockey, and they've already lost a lot of ground. If they don't turn this thing around soon, they will eventually run out of time.
But if I were a betting man, I wouldn't place any significant amount of money on that happening.
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