Chris Drury Comes Face to Face with Basic Math

In a perfect world - before the NHL instituted a salary cap - Pavel Buchnevich would still be a New York Ranger. Don't kid yourself. When Chris Drury says that there's only so much cap space and ice time to go around, he's only being half truthful. You think for one moment that Gerard Gallant wouldn't have found ice time for a top six forward who scored almost a point per game this past season? Of course he would've, and so would you or any half-way reasonably sane head coach.

The problem was the salary cap. Period. No matter how many permutations you care to run - and, trust me, I ran them all - beyond the 2021-22 season, there was simply no room for him. Not with the contract renewals that are coming over the next three years. Below are the estimates of where I expect each player to wind up at. Remember, these are ONLY estimates.

2021-22: Filip Chytil ($2M) and Igor Shesterkin ($4M); 

2022-23: Mika Zibanejad ($9M), Ryan Strome ($6.5M), Adam Fox ($9M), Kaapo Kakko ($4M), Vitali Kravtsov ($3.5M) and Alexandar Georgiev ($3M); 

2023-24: Alexis Lafreniere ($6M) and K'Andre Miller ($4M). 

That comes out to a cool $51 million.

Now let's add in the players currently under contract through at least 2024. Chris Kreider ($6.5M), Jacob Trouba ($8M), Ryan Lindgren ($3M), Barclay Goodrow ($3.6M), Blake Coleman - yes, I'm including him - ($5M), and figure an additional $6 million to fill out the roster. That comes out to $32.1 million.

All told, the final nut is $83.1 million. Let's assume the salary cap goes up two million to $83.5M. You're pretty much maxed out. Now if you can somehow manage to squeeze an additional $5.5 million - the expected value of Buchnevich's next contract - into that mix and still come out under the cap, you must be using some imaginary math I'm not familiar with. And keep in mind, since the above numbers are only estimates, the actual total could be higher.

The bottom line is this: It wasn't a question of why Buchnevich had to go, but when. The truth is that by choosing to hold onto him at last year's trade deadline, the Rangers lost any chance they had of extracting equal value for him. And now with every GM in the league knowing the tight spot Drury was in, there was zero chance he was going to get a decent return on investment. Face it, it was a buyer's market and Drury knew it. With no other choice left to him, he was forced to sell low.

And just in case you were wondering why Drury didn't sign him to a one-year deal, the reason is that Buchnevich had already agreed to a two-year deal once before. This time around he was looking for a long-term contract. It's highly unlikely he would've agreed to a one year deal. But let's say he did. Do you think the outcome would've been any different? If anything, Drury might've had a harder time moving Buchnevich at next year's trade deadline, especially with the entire league knowing he was going to be a UFA. Hell, he'd be lucky to get a mid-round pick for him.

Be grateful that Drury at least got a bottom six forward and a second round pick in next year's draft. Out in Colorado, the Avalanche might well end up losing one of their top forwards for nothing. Brendon Saad, who made $6 million last season, is now a UFA. After signing Cale Maker to a $9 million per year contract, the Avalanche have about $20 million in cap space left to re-sign four forwards (one of whom is Gabriel Landeskog), a defenseman and a goalie. Landeskog recently rejected an offer of $6* million per for five years. Let's assume that both sides eventually come to an agreement on $9 million per over seven years. Now you've got $11 million leftover for three forwards, one defenseman and the goalie. That's an average of $2.2 million per player. In other words, bye, bye Brendon Saad.

And it gets worse for the Avalanche. In two years Nathan MacKinnon ($6.3M) becomes an unrestricted free agent. You think Jack Eichel's worth $10 million? Wait'll MacKinnon hits the open market. The bidding will start at a cool $12 mill. This is the nightmare scenario every GM in the league is grappling with right now. Over the next couple of years, teams will be forced to part with top-tier talent for little or next to nothing just to remain compliant with a cap that, thanks to the worst pandemic in over a century, is artificially low. Whether you're name is Chris Drury or Joe Sakic, the job is the same. Put the best possible product you can on the ice and let the chips fall where they may.

Speaking of Eichel, if we're going to skewer Drury over the Buchnevich salary dump, he deserves credit for not panicking and giving up the farm for the disgruntled star. The Buffalo Sabres seem to have miscalculated here. Their excessive and unrealistic demands were soundly rejected, not just by the Rangers, but by every other team they were in discussions with. Kudos to Drury for holding the line. With the 15th pick in the draft, the Rangers took a winger who is the sort of north-south type player they desperately need more of. 

Yes, yesterday was a rough day; a sobering day. Pavel Buchnevich is gone. It sucks, I know, but that's life. They'll be better days ahead. This team should continue to improve, and if the kids play up their potential, they could make the playoffs this coming season.

Last time I checked, that was the "unofficial" goal, right?

* Correction: earlier I wrote that Landeskog had rejected a $7 million offer. It was actually $6 million. I have made the correction.