Houston We Have A Problem

Be careful what you ask for, you just might get it. During the first two rounds of these Stanley Cup playoffs all we heard from the Rangers is they couldn't get their speed game going because of the physical style of play of the Penguins and the Capitals. That, they said, was the reason for their lack of goal scoring. Just wait until we get to play our game and the goals will come, you'll see.

The Tampa Bay Lightning were supposed to be the perfect tonic for what ailed the Blueshirts; a team that, like them, had a good transition game and the ability to create scoring opportunities off the rush. Now we would finally see some goal scoring.

Well three games into this conference final round, the goals have come alright. Unfortunately for the Rangers, most of those goals have come off of Lightning sticks. In just the last two games, the Bolts have lit up Henrik Lundqvist to the tune of 12 goals against. To put it in perspective, that's only one less goal than he had allowed over the previous eight games combined. Do the math. 13 goals in eight games for a 1.63 goals against average vs. 12 goals in two games for a goals against average of 6.00. You don't have to be a mathematician to see where this is going.

Yes, the Rangers have found their speed game; yes, this series is a helluva lot more exciting than either of the last two. Hell, they're even scoring on the power play - four goals in the last two games. But the problem for the Rangers is they find themselves going skate to skate with a team that is putting on a clinic. The Rangers maybe going at warp six, but the Lightning are traveling at warp nine. They have been considerably quicker and far more opportunistic with their scoring chances than the Rangers. Their best forwards have run circles around the Rangers best forwards.

Adding insult to injury, the Rangers have been sloppy and undisciplined in this series. They have taken bad penalties and have had major defensive lapses in their own end. The team that was built around defense first has forgotten how to defend. And their world-class goaltender has been anything but that over the last two games. His whiff on the overtime goal by Nikita Kucherov in game three was as bad as anything I've seen from him since his rookie year in the league. If his play doesn't dramatically improve by game four, this series is going to end very quickly and another year will go by without a Cup.

It's time to admit the obvious. The Rangers, despite all the hoopla about their "speed game," really aren't all that explosive a team. Yes, they were tied for third in the NHL in scoring, but a lot of those goals came early in the year. Throughout a good chunk of their run to the Presidents' Trophy, they won the bulk of their games by scores of 3-2, 2-1 and 1-0. They might not like low-scoring games, but they typically win them. And if the Rangers have any hope of winning this series and extending their postseason, they had better give up this suicide mission they're on and return to their roots.

If they don't, the Lightning will run over them like a freight train.

Stanley Cup Conference Finals Predictions

Only four teams are left standing. Two weeks from now, it will be two. This weekend, the Eastern and Western conference finals begin. In the East, the Rangers face-off against the Tampa Bay Lightning. In the West, the Anaheim Mighty Ducks and Chicago Blackhawks duke it out. Which two teams will prevail and why?

Well, at the risk of sounding my own horn, two of the teams I picked before the playoffs began - the Rangers and Blackhawks - are still standing. Why? Simple, both teams have the best goaltending in the tournament. That's also the reason I'm picking them to move on to the finals.

Eastern Conference Finals: Rangers vs. Lightning.

The Lightning are loaded upfront. What makes them scary is that their best forward - Steven Stamkos - isn't even on their best line. They're young, fast and explosive and they will give the Rangers all they can handle. And, no doubt, Ryan Callahan and Brian Boyle will be out to prove that Glen Sather made a mistake by letting them go.

But while they may be front loaded, the Blueshirts are still a deeper team, even without Mats Zuccarello. And then there's the defensive pairings and goaltending which heavily favor New York. Henrik Lundqvist hasn't had a bad game in the playoffs, while his counterpart - Ben Bishop - has been lit up twice. He's good, but hardly world class. In what will likely be a low-scoring and tight-checking series, the Rangers should be favored, even if only slightly.

The Lightning went 3-0 against the Rangers this season, but those games were played early in the season before New York went on their Presidents' Trophy run. They're a much different and better team now.

Prediction: Rangers in seven.

Western Conference Finals: Ducks vs. Blackhawks.

Okay, I admit it. I didn't think the Ducks were this good. In fact, I had them bowing out in the second round. But while Anaheim has managed to go 8-1 this postseason, they've done so against two pretty mediocre teams. Chicago is anything but mediocre. In fact, they're arguably the best team in the tournament.

The Ducks have the two best centers in the playoffs and can skate with anyone. But I've watched them and their Achilles heal is clearly in goal, where Frederik Andersen has been erratic and VERY beatable. If Corey Crawford lives up to his billing, this series could get out of hand quickly.

Prediction: Blackhawks in six. 

7th Heaven

Okay, they did it. They came back from the dead.  They came ALL the way back. Trailing 3-1 in the series and trailing 1-0 with less than two minutes to go in game 5, the Rangers found a way to pull it out and force a game 6 and then a game 7.

They kept fighting and fighting and just wouldn't go away. Consider this, at no point in this series did the Rangers lead in games until the very end. They even trailed in game 7, thanks to a poor start and a goal by Mark Messier wannabe Alex Ovechkin. But they came back and willed their way to an overtime win - their 10 straight at home in an elimination game - and in so doing, became the first team in NHL history to win a series after training 3-1 in two consecutive years.

As for the Caps, they lost for the 5th time after holding a 3-1 series lead. No doubt they will spend the offseason pondering what went wrong. They were just 1:41 away from advancing to their first conference final since 1997. But they just couldn't put that final nail in the Rangers' coffin. This one will hurt a long time.

So how did the Rangers pull it off? How did they manage to snatch victory from the jaws of defeat? Karma? Destiny? Resilience? Talent? Luck? How about all of the above?

Let's face it, they hardly played like the team that won the Presidents' Trophy. They were sporadic at best and never quite got their speed game going. Part of that was due to an excellent game plan by Capitals' coach Barry Trotz. The rest? Well, as I mentioned in two earlier pieces, this Rangers' team, while good, never dominated their opponents the way you'd expect a Cup contender to. Of their 53 wins, only 18 were decided by more than two goals. Only the Anaheim Ducks faired worse among playoff teams.

Winning the majority of your games by one or two goals may seem like the perfect strategy for a long playoff run, but it's also playing with fire. Many of those regular season games might just as easily have gone the other way. Consider this: each of the Rangers four overtime wins could've been losses, in which case they'd be playing golf now instead of preparing to host the Tampa Bay Lightning Saturday. How's that for luck?

But I'd be doing them a huge disservice if I didn't acknowledge that for all their fortuitousness, this bunch of Rangers has a boat-load of character. They've shown it all season long. Some how, some way, they manage to win games lesser teams would've lost. This may not be the most talented group of players to don the Rangers' logo, but they are the most resilient I've seen since - dare I say it? - 1994. To paraphrase a line from the Godfather 3, Just when you thought they were out, they pull themselves back in.

But while they are resilient, they are hardly cocky. Unlike the Caps, who shot their mouths off after losing game 6, the Rangers kept a low profile and concentrated on the game at hand. This singular focus, I believe, is the reason they never panicked once throughout this series. Even when the Caps were surging late in game 6 and early in the overtime in game 7, they kept their composure.  They bent, but they never broke.

And now they have reached the conference finals for the second season in a row. They are eight victories away from winning their first Stanley Cup in 21 years. Only Tampa and either the Ducks or Chicago Blackhawks stand in their way. The series against the Lightning should be a breath of fresh air for a team that was bounced around like a basketball by Washington. Both teams ostensibly employ the same system: an uptempo speed game. The Lightning are more front loaded than the Rangers, but the Blueshirts are deeper and have a huge edge in goal. Funny, I remember saying that about the Caps and look what almost happened.

The Rangers are halfway home; halfway towards realizing the goal they set for themselves the night they lost in overtime to the L.A. Kings in game 5 of the Finals last June. They're talented, determined, resilient, focused and, yes, lucky. But then find me a championship team that didn't have a little bit of luck going for it? Maybe this time destiny will shine on them. Maybe this time they get to be the bride instead of the bride's maid.

This much I can tell you: if they're in overtime in game 7 of the Finals, I wouldn't bet against them.

A Stay of Execution?

I'll admit it. I thought it was over. Admit it. You thought it was over too.

After Curtis Glencross converted his own rebound past Henrik Lundqvist with 9:06 remaining to give the Caps a 1 nothing lead, the Blueshirts were looking like toast.

The Presidents Trophy winners were less than ten minutes away from bowing out in the second round of the playoffs with their skates between their legs.

And then...

With less than two minutes remaining in their season, Derek Stepan, who had his best game of the playoffs - perhaps the whole damn season - gained the Caps zone, pulled up and fed a perfect pass to Chris Kreider who one-timed a shot passed Braden Holtby, who is having the series of his life.

And just like that, tie game. The Garden erupted with joy as the Rangers forced overtime. And in the extra session, it was Stepan to the rescue again, setting up the winning goal by Ryan McDonagh off a feed from Jesper Fast.

Game over. Rangers win. They live to fight another day.

In a game which saw the Blueshirts dictate the pace early and pepper Holtby with 11 of the game's first 13 shots, it was poetic justice that the two goals they managed to score were the result of deflections. Pretty? No. Effective? Yes.

Now the scene shifts back to Washington where the Caps will be under pressure to close out the series or face a game seven at the Garden, where the Rangers are now a perfect 9 and 0 in elimination games. In their history the Capitals have blown 3-1 series leads four times. That burden will be weighing heavily on them Sunday. Talk about a turn of events. The Caps were this close to moving on. Now they've given their opponents something they haven't had since game two of this series: momentum. 

The odds are still against the Rangers prevailing. Despite the emotional win, they are hardly out of the woods. Let's not forget they were 1:41 away from being shutout for the second time in three games. For all their resilience, they're still way too cute with the puck. Several times last night, they found themselves in ideal scoring situations and elected to pass rather than shoot. Kreider, who scored the tying goal, looked like Mother Teresa with the puck. I got it, no you take it. They won game five, but if they plan on winning games six and seven, they're going to have to bury the few opportunities they are afforded.

For now, though, they're alive. There WILL be a game six Sunday night. The season continues. Maybe the hockey gods will smile on them and they will go on to win the Cup, or maybe last night was just a temporary stay of execution. 

We'll know soon enough.

Do or Die for Rangers?

Going into Wednesday's game-four match with the Capitals, the prevailing sentiment among some hockey experts is that while it is important for the Rangers to tie the series, it is not, as of yet, a life or death situation. The Rangers, they argue, are the league's best team and have shown their resilience throughout the season many times. If any team can come back from a 3-1 series deficit, it is certainly them. After all, they came back from a 3-1 deficit against the Penguins last year and Pittsburgh that year was a considerably better team than this year's Washington team.  While such thinking is laudable, it is dangerous and I'll explain why.

Yes, the Rangers came back from a 3-1 deficit last year against the Penguins, but, contrary to the above statement, Pittsburgh was a flawed and vulnerable team that year. After winning the first game, the Blueshirts lost a tough game two in Pittsburgh, then returned home and stunk out the Garden in games three and four. Once they had regained their footing following the death of Marty St. Louis' mother, the Rangers ran off three straight wins en route to an improbable finals appearance.

This year's Capitals team is a much more complete team, both offensively and defensively, than last year's Penguins team. While they don't have the speed of the Rangers, they have done an outstanding job of taking away the middle of the ice, forcing the Blueshirts to the outside. Unlike last year's Rangers team that turned on the jets in game five, this year's team has played only one really poor period of hockey in the entire tournament. Every game has been highly contested and decided by one goal. The Rangers aren't in a 2-1 hole because of the way they've played, so much as the way their opponent has played. Expecting another come from behind miracle is wishful thinking to say the least.

And then there is the nagging question: Is this year's Rangers' team really better than last year's. On paper and certainly in the win/loss column, the answer appears to be yes. But a careful look at how they've played this season reveals something quite interesting. The Rangers won an inordinate amount of their games by one goal. One could make the argument that they've been in playoff mode for most of the season. While that certainly can strengthen a team and force them to be more focused, it can also be quite draining both physically and emotionally. Having to stave off elimination three consecutive times would be a daunting task for any team, especially one as driven and extended as this year's Rangers team.

And finally, while 27 teams have come back from 3-1 deficits to win their series, only six of them went on to win the Stanley Cup. More alarming is the fact that only eight organizations have come from behind more than once, with Vancouver accomplishing the feat three times.  Prior to last season's comeback, the Rangers had never managed it once. It's worth noting they fell to the Kings in the finals that year. If you're a betting man, you can't like the odds of a successful championship run in such a scenario.

If I'm the Rangers, I treat tomorrow's match like it's game seven. I'd pull out all the stops, crash the net and throw all caution to the wind. They must win by hook or crook. They can't head back to the Garden trailing 3-1, not if they plan on hoisting the Cup in June.

Maybe I'm overreacting. Maybe they go down 3-1, come back and go all the way. They did win the Presidents' trophy, after all. And they're playing a team that has made it past the second round of the playoffs only twice in its entire history and has on four occasions blown 3-1 series leads. But if they plan on winning this series and prevailing in the next two, they're going to have to step it up and want it more. This year's playoff teams, as I pointed out in an earlier piece, are considerably better than last year's teams. Several of those teams have a legitimate chance of going all the way.

The Capitals are one of them.

NHL Playoff Predictions

A word of caution here, my track record at predicting championship teams is suspect at best. A couple years ago, I picked the Giants to win the Super Bowl. They ended up having one of their worst seasons in over a decade.

Still, I figure I can't be any worse than some of the predictions of the so-called experts. And, besides, I have a horse in this derby. For the first time since 1994, the Rangers are a favorite to win the Stanley Cup.

First off, I'm going with the teams that have the best goaltending. Why? Because they usually win. The last five Cup winners all had goaltenders who were among the NHL's best. Jonathan Quick (2014 & 2012), Corey Crawford (2013 & 2010) and Tuukka Rask (2011). Without those goalies in net, it is doubtful any of them would've made it passed the second round.

Second, I'm going with teams that have depth. If you don't have more than one scoring line, your odds of advancing to the finals, much less winning the Cup, are slim to none.

I'll go with the Eastern Conference first, followed by the Western and ending with the Cup finals, then let the chips fall where they may.


Eastern Conference Quarterfinals 

Rangers vs. Penguins. The only way the Blueshirts don't win this series is if they take the Penguins too lightly. Rangers have huge edge in both goal and defense. Prediction: Rangers in five.

Islanders vs. Capitals: The smart money is on the Caps. I'm going with the team with better depth. Even with Ovechkin, Caps don't measure up. Prediction: Isles in seven.

Canadiens vs. Senators: Carey Price is lightyears ahead of Andrew Hammond. Montreal was one of the best kept secrets in the NHL this year. Prediction: Canadiens in five.

Lightning vs. Redwings: Tampa has it all: youth, depth and scoring. Things could get ugly fast in Motown. Prediction: Lightning in four.

Eastern Conference Semifinals

Rangers vs. Islanders: This one will be a barn burner. Speed of Blueshirts vs. size of Isles. Lundqvist will prove the difference: Prediction: Rangers in six.

Canadiens vs. Lightning: Last year, the Habs swept Tampa. Not this time. This one will go to the wire. Prediction: Canadiens in seven.

Eastern Conference Finals

Rangers vs. Canadiens: Last year's conference finalists lock skates again. A healthy Price will go toe to toe with Lundqvist. Don't be surprised if the series is decided in overtime. Prediction: Rangers in seven.

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Western Conference Quarterfinals

Blues vs. Wild: Early exits were the norm in St. Louis. Not this time. This might be best Blues team we've seen in years. Prediction: Blues in six.

Predators vs. Blackhawks: With or without Patrick Kane, Chicago was the favorite. With him it won't even be close. Prediction: Blackhawks in five.

Ducks vs. Jets: Boy did the Ducks ever catch a break here. No L.A. Kings and a weak wildcard opponent. They'll prevail, but barely. Prediction: Ducks in seven.

Flames vs. Canucks: This might turn out to be the most competitive series in round one. Flames making their first playoff appearance since 2009. It'll go the distance. Prediction: Flames in seven.

Western Conference Semifinals

Ducks vs. Flames: Here's where midnight strikes for weak Anaheim. This won't even be close. Prediction: Flames in five.

Blues vs. Blackhawks: A shame these two teams had to meet in this round. They deserved better. The winner will go to finals. Prediction: Blackhawks in seven.

Western Conference Finals

Blackhawks vs. Flames: It was quite a run for Calgary, but the run ends here. Blackhawks too deep and Crawford too good. Prediction: Blackhawks in five.

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Stanley Cup Finals

Rangers vs. Blackhawks: Two original six teams meeting for the Cup. Hockey the way it was meant to be. Two great goaltenders go at it.  Superior speed of Blueshirts will prove the difference. Prediction: Rangers in seven with Lundqvist winning Conn Smyth.

Well, there you have it. My two cents worth. As per usual, I wouldn't bet the ranch on it. Just know that if the Rangers don't go all the way, I plan on being one unhappy camper.

Rangers Face Tough Challenges In Pursuit of Cup

53 wins, 113 points, both franchise bests. The New York Rangers go into the 2015 post season as a clear-cut favorite to win the Stanley Cup. They are healthy and they have won 6 of their last 7 games.  What could go wrong?

Well, at the risk of being called a Debbie Downer, there are three legitimate obstacles standing in the way of the Blueshirts' quest to secure their first championship in 21 years. I'll list them in no particular order.

1. A crowded field. As I pointed out in my last posting, while the Rangers have had a helluva regular season and are most definitely the NHL's favorite son, they are by no means an only child. The Montreal Canadiens, Tampa Bay Lightning and Washington Capitals are all genuine contenders to get to the finals. The Canadiens' Carey Price, injured in last year's conference final, is healthy and a legitimate Vezina Trophy candidate. If the Rangers meet them - a strong likelihood should they advance to the third round - Price could go toe to toe with Henrik Lundqvist. If the series goes seven, the Habs are certainly capable of winning at the Garden. Translation? The Rangers are hardly a lock to make it back to the finals.

2. A woeful power play. If there is an Achilles heel to this team, it is their power play, or rather lack of one. The Rangers' power play finished an anemic 16.7 percent, tied for 21st in the NHL. In their last game against New Jersey, the Devils, borrowing a page out of the Broadstreet Bullies' era - handed the Rangers seven power play opportunities. They converted just one. That simply isn't good enough for a team looking to hoist the Cup. The Capitals, by contrast, boast the number one power play in the league. In what promises to be a low-scoring post season, special teams will play a crucial role. If opposing teams know they can take liberties with the Rangers without paying the price, this could be a very short playoff run. The only saving grace here is that the Canadiens' power play is just as woeful.

3. The Presidents' Trophy curse.  Since the trophy was first awarded in 1986, only eight teams that have won it have gone on to win the Cup. Eleven failed to even make it to the conference finals. More ominous was that Alain Vigneault coached two of those failed trophy winners in Vancouver. One of them a first round exit to the L.A. Kings in 2012; the other a thrilling seven game loss to the Boston Bruins in the 2011 finals. Speaking of the Bruins, they were last year's Presidents' Trophy winner, and they lost in the second round to the Canadiens. In fact, of the last six Cup winners, only one, the Chicago Blackhawks, sported the league's best record. And that was during a lockout-shortened season. Being number one isn't all that it's cracked up to be.

But while the Rangers do have some challenges, it's only fair to say that, all things being equal, I would much rather be in their skates than anybody else's. There's a reason why they won the Presidents' Trophy. They were clearly the best team this season. Despite losing their number one goalie, and arguably the NHL's best net minder, the Rangers not only didn't miss a beat, they went into fifth gear. They are the league's fastest and deepest team and they have the three best defense pairings of any playoff team. Since mid December, they have been in a league of their own. After enduring the likes of John Tortorella for five seasons, this team has a quiet confidence that Tortorella's never had. Alain Vigneault has gotten these players to buy into his system and the results speak for themselves.

So round one begins Thursday against the Pittsburgh Penguins. The Blueshirts should have little trouble getting past them. The Pens have been dreadful down the stretch and are missing half their defense due to injuries. And Marc Andre Fleury will be no match for Henrik Lundqvist in goal. It will be crucial for the Rangers to not get extended deep in this round. Five games should suffice.

After that, the Caps or the hated Islanders await. That series should go at least six games. Buckle your seat belts, kids. We're in for quite a ride.