Saturday, April 28, 2018

The Biggest Winners and Losers in the 2018 NFL Draft

So now that the 2018 NFL draft is over, it's time to see who the biggest winners and losers were. Keep in mind, you can never really know how these players will pan out, so all this is conjecture on my part.

First, the winners:

The Giants. They pick up the best talented player in the draft in the first round; then they pick up the 4th best offensive lineman in the second round; then they use both their third round picks to beef up their defensive front seven. Oh, and by the way, they landed a quality quarterback in the 4th round to possibly take over for Ei in two or three years. Dave Gettleman had himself one helluva good draft.

The Broncos. How's this for a scenario: your kid was hoping for a brand new bike for Christmas, but you couldn't afford to get him one. Then, miraculously, the bike shop owner calls you up and tells you that a customer who put a deposit on one couldn't come up with the balance and if you still want it, the bike is available at a lower price. You say thank you, rush down and swoop it up. That's what the Broncos did when the Browns, for some unknown reason, decided to pass on the best defensive player in the draft, Bradley Chubb. So now the Broncos will have Chubb AND Von Miller on the same defensive line. Just imagine what's going through the mind of every quarterback in the AFC West right now. Yum, yum, eat 'em up!

The Cardinals. Assuming they can squeeze Josh Rosen's ego back into his body, Arizona did pretty well in this draft. That's because in addition to picking Captain America in the 1st round, they got one of the better receivers in the draft in Christian Kirk in the 2nd round along with running back Chase Edmonds in the 4th.

The Patriots. Eschewing the best talent on the board rule, Bill Belichick decided to address needs and address them he did. Two cornerbacks, a running back, a linebacker and a potential replacement for Tom Brady. And all, except for the QB, are expected to battle for starting jobs this season. The rich do indeed get richer.

The Steelers. They snagged what many believe will be Ben Roethlisberger's replacement in Mason Rudolph in the 3rd round, when many thought he was a low 1st rounder; then landed a replacement for Martavis Bryant in James Washington. That's called taking care of business.

The Colts. If the mission was to keep Andrew Luck upright, mission accomplished. They got Quenton Nelson - the best offensive lineman available - in the 1st round; then added guard Braden Smith in the 2nd. They then used the two 2nd round picks they got from the Jets to address defensive needs, drafting a linebacker and a lineman. That's how you work the draft, not by trading up but by trading down. Nice job.

The Packers. They had one of the worst pass defenses in the league last year, so they used their first two picks in the draft to go after cornerbacks. Clearly somebody in the front office figured out that having to win games 38 to 35 was not a good recipe for success.

The Jaguars. They bolstered what was already one of the league's best defenses by adding defensive lineman Taven Bryan and safety Ronnie Harrison. Then they addressed a need by drafting receiver D.J. Clark. Tom Coughlin is turning out to be an even better talent evaluator than he was a head coach.


The Losers:

The Browns. Picture this: you have the two of the first four picks in the first round and not only don't you end up with the best offensive player, you don't even get the best defensive one. Okay, so maybe Baker Mayfield will turn out to be the next Drew Breese; or maybe he ends up being the next Todd Blackledge. Bottom line, if you're going to pass on Barkley for a QB, you should at least wind up with the best one, Sam Darnold. But even if you give John Dorsey the benefit of the doubt with Mayfield - maybe he knows something we don't - there's simply no excuse in the known universe for passing on Chubb. Now you know why Cleveland fans have a persecution complex. Well, at least they partially redeemed themselves by nabbing the second best running back in the draft whose last name, ironically, also happens to be Chubb.

The Jets. Yeah, I know Manish Mehta of the Daily Booze thinks the Giants "blew it" when they passed on Darnold, thus allowing the USC quarterback to fall into the Jets' lap. But here's the thing, Sparky, Gang Green could've had their guy with the 6th pick without having to sacrifice both their 2nd round picks to move up. Here's how. It was obvious the Browns were going to go for a quarterback with the number one pick. And the Giants were dead set on taking Barkley at number two. No way the Colts were going to take a QB at three and the Browns were going defense with the fourth pick. That means the only team that might've gone for a QB would've been the Broncos and we know what they did. So Darnold would've been sitting pretty at number six. And even if the Browns chose Darnold number one, the Jets would've landed Mayfield with the 6th pick. Either way they would've gotten a quality quarterback and still had both their 2nd round picks on the board. Trading up was totally unnecessary and cost the Jets a chance to fill some badly needed holes.

The Seahawks. Yes, it was touching that they drafted the one-handed twin brother of Shaquill Griffin in the 5th round, but most of their other picks had people scratching their heads.

Friday, April 27, 2018

Why the Giants Had To Pick Barkley


In the end it was a no brainer. The New York Giants, sitting with the number two pick in the first round of the NFL draft, had an opportunity to grab what they, and every football expert, thought was the best player on the board. That player was Penn State running back Saquon Barkley. So when the Cleveland Browns selected Oklahoma quarterback Baker Mayfield, all that was left for Dave Gettleman to do was wait the obligatory ten minutes before informing Roger Goodell of his decision; a decision, as it turns out, he had made from the moment he became the Giants GM.

To those who say Gettleman should've chosen a quarterback with his pick, I would respectfully disagree. Yes, I know Eli Manning is 37 and, yes, I also know it's been several seasons since he displayed the kind of traits that earned him elite status among NFL quarterbacks. And I'm also painfully aware that teams seldom find themselves in the position the Giants were in to lock in a franchise quarterback. Logic dictates that when you have that kind of opportunity, you cash in on it.

But here's the thing: not one of these four so-called franchise quarterbacks that were talked about as first rounders stood out. All had their good points and all had areas of concern.

For instance, UCLA quarterback Josh Rosen was considered the best pure passer of the four, but there were concerns about his health - he had sustained two concussions and missed part of his junior year with a shoulder injury. Then there was his personal makeup - he thinks he's the smartest guy in the room. After he was chosen 10th overall by the Arizona Cardinals, Rosen, clearly with a chip on his shoulder, bemoaned that the nine teams before the Cardinals had made a huge mistake that he would make them pay for. Even in a city like New York, that's too much attitude. Can you imagine him with Odell Beckham, Jr on the same field? There wouldn't be enough oxygen left in Met Life Stadium.

Next up was Sam Darnold, the USC quarterback chosen by the Jets with the number three pick. I thought he was the best of the four, but his propensity for turning the ball over was a huge problem. During his two years at USC - did I forget to tell you he's only 20? - Darnold would often force the ball into coverage leading to interceptions. He also would hold onto it way too long leading to fumbles. Sound familiar Giants fans?

As for Baker Mayfield and Wyoming's Josh Allen, neither of them in my opinion was worth such a lofty pick. Mayfield is only six feet tall and lacks the mental discipline needed for an NFL quarterback.  I still can't figure out the Cleveland Browns. They have two of the first four picks in the draft and they end up with the third rated quarterback and the fourth rated defensive player. Go figure. As for Allen, he may have a canon for an arm, but his 56 percent completion rate ranks among the lowest in this class. Well, at least he won't mind the weather in Buffalo.

Put simply there wasn't one Peyton Manning or John Elway among this lot. Hell, I doubt there was even an Eli Manning available. And that's the reason you don't try to fit a square peg into a round hole. Picking a quarterback this high that doesn't pan out can set your franchise back a decade. Just look at how many years the Miami Dolphins have been trying to find another Dan Marino.

Like it or not, star quarterbacks don't grow on trees, but transformational running backs like Barkley can turn a losing team around just like that. Just look at the Dallas Cowboys. Dak Prescott is a talented quarterback who will likely have a long career ahead of him. But make no mistake about it: it's running back Ezekiel Elliott that makes that team go. In his rookie year, the Cowboys went 13-3; prior to his arrival, the team went 4-12. Don't think for a moment Gettleman wasn't aware of that before the draft. Manning might be in the twilight of his career, but with Barkley touching the ball, say 20 or 30 times, it could be one helluva twilight.

Whether you're picking second or twenty-second, the rule is the same: you pick the best talented player on the board. Period. That's what Gettleman did when he chose Barkley. It's why the Giants are a much better team today than they were yesterday.

Wednesday, February 28, 2018

Rangers Finally Call It A Night


Give Jeff Gorton this much: when the Rangers' GM made the announcement on February 8 that the team was going to be sellers at the trade deadline, he wasn't joking. Sellers? The last time we saw a selloff like this, Charlie Finley was the owner of the Oakland A's.

Consider the moves Gorton made over the last week: Defenseman Nick Holden to the Bruins for defenseman Rob O'Gara and a 2018 third-round pick; forward Michael Grabner to the Devils for a 2018 second-round pick and defensive prospect Yegor Rykov; forward Rick Nash to the Bruins for a 2018 first-round pick, forwards Ryan Spooner and Matt Beleskey, defenseman Ryan Lindgren and a 2019 seventh-round pick; and last but not least, defenseman Ryan McDonagh and forward J.T. Miller to the Lightning for a 2018 first-round pick, forward Vladislav Namestnikov, prospects Brett Howden and Libor Hajek, as well as a conditional 2019 pick that could be a number one if Tampa wins the Stanley Cup this year.

Throw in the waiving of defenseman Brendan Smith the day after Gorton's decree and the buyout of defenseman Dan Girardi and the trading of center Derek Stepan and goalie Anti Raanta over the summer for defenseman Anthony DeAngelo and a 2017 first-round pick and you have an almost one-third turnover in personnel in less than a year. If you happen to own a 2016-17 yearbook, put it someplace special. It'll be worth something one day.

Let's get a couple of things straight here. First, Gorton didn't dismantle the '79 Canadiens. This core, while talented, never delivered on its promise. Two trips to the conference finals and one cup final appearance in six years is nice, but it's hardly what I would call a run. Compare what the Blackhawks did during a similar stretch: three Stanley Cups and a conference final loss to the Kings. Now that's a run.

Secondly, while this "fire sale" might seem extreme, quite frankly it's two years overdue. Since their unceremonious exit in the conference finals in 2015 against the Lightning, the Rangers have endured two consecutive seasons in which they underachieved: a first-round humiliation at the hands of the Penguins in 2016 and a second-round upset to the Senators last year. Any reasonably objective observer of this team would've concluded that its window had closed. To allow the decline to go any further would've been gross negligence.

Given that the Rangers telegraphed their intentions - never a good idea - I'm surprised at the haul Gorton got back for his players. Holden, Grabner and Nash were due to be unrestricted free agents over the summer. Rentals rarely fetch such high returns. As for McDonagh and Miller, well let's just say that the former hasn't come close to his near Norris trophy play since 2015, and was, even at the age of 28, showing signs of wear and tear. And so far as Miller is concerned, he was a bit of an enigma: there were games where he played like the best forward on the team, and others where he wound up in what John Davidson used to refer to as Chateau Bow Wow (the dog house).

Now comes the hard part. Tearing down a team is easy; all you need is a phone. Putting one together is where it gets interesting. Gorton has a shitload of draft picks at his disposal this Spring: three number ones, two number twos and two number threes. What he does with them will determine whether this rebuild is successful or ends up being his Waterloo. He also has at least two NHL caliber forwards in Spooner and Namestnikov, as well as some interesting, if untested, prospects. Spooner contributed two assists in a loss to the Red Wings in his first game as a Ranger and Namestnikov was having a career year playing alongside Stephen Stamkos.

The first objective for Gorton will be to draft a number one center to replace the departed Stepan. It's clear that Mika Zibanejad, though competent, was never going to fill that void. And while Kevin Hayes has talent, that talent is better suited on the wing. Gorton doesn't need to get a Mark Messier or Sidney Crosby, but he'd better not wind up with another Pavel Brendl. At the rate the blue shirts are plummeting in the standings, their own number one pick could well turn out to be THE number one. So the pressure will be on him not to screw up.

Next up for Gorton will be to add some size to this team. It was no secret that the Rangers lacked the physical presence to go toe to toe with the bigger teams in the league. All throughout the 2015 playoffs their opponents – first the Caps, then the Lightning – bottled up the middle on them, forcing them to the perimeter. That, more than anything else, was the reason they didn’t make it back to the finals. Apart from Chris Kreider, there isn’t a single forward on this team that can drive to the net with authority. Gorton must address this weakness.

Last but not least comes the coach. The brain trust will have to decide over the summer whether Alain Vigneault should be retained behind the bench. If he stays, he will have to agree to some changes. There’s little argument that the key to winning in the NHL is a strong transition game. Getting the puck up ice as quickly as possible has now become standard operating procedure. But speed is but one component of a successful team. Dumping the puck into the corner and grinding it out is another. And while Vigneault can’t be faulted for his team’s lack of size, he can be faulted for not adjusting his philosophy of coaching, especially during the playoffs where the Rangers’ transition game was often stymied by bigger and brawnier opponents. Also, Vigneault’s style of coaching tends to favor older, more established teams that have a veteran presence. Apart from Henrik Lundqvist, Mats Zuccarello and Marc Staal, there isn’t a single player on this team who comes close to 30 and who has more than six years in the league.

If Gorton and Glen Sather feel Vigneault is not the right man for this rebuild, they have a suitable replacement already behind the bench. Lindy Ruff has done a good job with the young crop of defensemen he has inherited and with a couple of exceptions – the blowout to the Bruins that precipitated the selloff being one of them – the overall play in their end has been credible. Plus, he’s a former blue shirt and the franchise has a history of staying in the family whenever possible. He’s been to the finals twice; once as an assistant coach with Florida in 1996, the other as head coach of Buffalo in ’99. If he has one flaw, it’s that he tends to be a little too outspoken with respect to the media, a trait John Tortorella exhibited on numerous occasions. The league has fined him twice for remarks he made towards officials.

I'm actually encouraged by what's happened here. This is a franchise that historically has had a hard time letting go. It takes a lot of courage to admit defeat, but it's an important step in any recovery process.

Tuesday, January 5, 2016

Reese's Pieces


So now that Tom Coughlin has "resigned" as Giants' head coach, the sixty-four thousand question that begs to be answered is why didn't Jerry Reese "resign" as well. Because if it's fair game to hold Coughlin accountable for how the wheels came off this season, it's only reasonable to hold Reese accountable for providing the wheels in the first place.

Look, Coughlin did a poor job this year. That's fairly obvious, but he didn't exactly have the '72 Dolphins to work with. It is the G.M.'s job to give his coach the tools to win and Reese has done a lousy job. The offense, save for Eli Manning and Odell Beckham, Jr, is paper thin, and the once vaunted defense is the worst in the NFL. That wasn't Coughlin's fault. Indeed, the two-time Superbowl-winning coach had almost no support from his front office. Jerry Reese took the reigns from Ernie Accorsi who had carefully built two championship teams.

In addition to drafting Manning, the list of players Accorsi either drafted or signed includes Justin Tuck, Osi Umenyiora, Antonio Pierce, Chris Snee, Plaxico Burress, Ahmad Bradshaw and Brandon Jacobs. He also hired Coughlin. By comparison, Reese brought in Victor Cruz, Jason Pierre Paul and Beckham and little more. While all three were considerable additions, they weren't nearly enough to propel the team by themselves. As Accorsi's players either retired or departed for other teams, Reese's replacements couldn't cut it.

Whoever the Giants pick to coach the team in 2016, this much is certain: if Reese doesn't do a considerably better job at bringing in talent, the results will be the same. Another disappointing season and another year in which Eli Manning will not have a shot at winning a Superbowl. The Mara family has a long history of being patient, sometimes to a fault, with their employees. They certainly showed that patience with Coughlin. Virtually any other coach would've been fired a year or two ago. Just look at what happened to Chip Kelly after just one losing season in Philadelphia. But their reluctance to fire Reese might well come back to haunt them. While Reese may be only the third general manager since 1979, he is by far the least effective.

And now he is tasked with rebuilding a team he had a huge role in dismembering.


Friday, November 6, 2015

Ya Gotta Bereave


In a word, it was brutal. How brutal? This one statistic, more than any other, summed it up best.  Of the 53 innings in the 2015 World Series, the Royals led in only 13 of them. And keep in mind, five of those 13 innings came in game two.

Going into the fall classic, the Mets had one advantage over the Royals: their starting pitching. And with the exception of game two, the starters certainly did their job. So why was this series so lopsided? Why did a team which led for 40 out of 53 innings and had late-inning leads in four of the five games in the series come up short? Three reasons: a lack of clutch hitting, a porous bullpen and shoddy defense. In every measurable metric, sans the starting pitching, the Royals were by far the superior team.

Sadly, you could see this day coming. Since the trade deadline deals that Sandy Alderson pulled off, the Mets were a streaky team offensively, led by Yoenis Cespedes. There's no denying he carried the team from the dog days of August through mid September, when he began to cool off. Indeed, this team feasted off of some of the worst pitching in the National League. The Mets went from one of the worst scoring teams in the majors to one of the best virtually overnight.

But they lived primarily on the long ball, more so than any other contending team. Coupled with their starting pitching, they had a huge advantage over both the Dodgers and the Cubs. So much so, that their two biggest flaws - the bullpen and shaky defense - never played a factor. Terry Collins was able to ride his starters deep into games, even using his closer to get the final six outs in the deciding game against the Dodgers.

But the Royals were successfully able to expose the Mets' flaws. Their ability to put the ball in play severely tested a defense that was in over its head. And the bullpen was, for all intents and purposes, a total failure. From Jeurys Familia's blown saves in games one, four and five, to Tyler Clippard's inability to get crucial outs as a set-up man, it was painful to watch. Small wonder why Collins elected to allow Matt Harvey to start the 9th inning in game five. He was about as close to perfection as any pitcher had been for the Amazin's in the entire series.

And then there were the errors committed by David Wright, Daniel Murphy and Lucas Duda, all of them costly. Wright's poor throw in game one set up the eventual game-winning run; Murphy's inability to field a ground ball opened up the flood gates in game four; and Duda's wide throw to the plate in game five allowed the tying run to score. Marv Throneberry would've been proud.

But it was their lack of clutch hitting that really did the Mets in. The bottom of the 6th inning in game five was a textbook example of how not to win a series. The Mets loaded the bases with no outs and the most they were able to score was one run. One stinking run! Conversely, whenever the Royals got runners in scoring position, as they tended to do in the later innings, they usually plated them. They put on a clinic in every game except game three.

So now that it's over, where do the Mets go from here? Clearly, Alderson has some decisions to make. He's already put to bed one question: whether to bring back Collins. The organization signed him to a two-year extension. While I'm not a huge Collins' fan, I have to admit, there weren't a lot of options. He may not be the best, but he's far from the worst this team could do and, unlike the meltdown that occurred with the Washington Nationals, his players seem to love him. Go figure.

Next up will be deciding whether to tender offers to both Cespedes and Murphy. Both played integral parts in getting the Mets to both the postseason and the World Series. Murphy had himself one of the great runs in baseball, smacking a home run in six consecutive games. But both players did virtually nothing in the Series. Not only that, both made huge errors. Cespedes got doubled off first base when a liner by Duda was caught, ending game four and let's not forget the aforementioned flub by Murphy earlier in the game.

If I had to guess, I'd say the Mets let Cespedes walk without an offer. No way they're going to give him the $200 million he's looking for, and for once, I'm on their side in this. The problem with Cespedes is that he's vulnerable against top-notch pitching. He either drives the ball to Pluto or he grounds out. Murphy, however, is another story. For the right price, I'd bring him back. Yes he's a liability in the field, but his ability to play multiple positions, coupled by a low strikeout ratio, will make him a good fit.

That leaves the bullpen as Alderson's next and most essential project. Clippard has pitched his last game in a Mets' uniform. Good riddance. That means a replacement for him is essential. Addison Reed could fill his shoes. Or Alderson could look outside the system and acquire someone either through trade or free agency. He will also have to find a lefty. Every good team in baseball has one in the pen that can get valuable outs, except the Mets. And if Bartolo Colon can be enticed to accept a relief role, he could be that bridge that Collins has been looking for.

The loss of Cespedes means that we will find out what Juan Lagaris is made of. If Alderson isn't comfortable with him in center, a replacement will have to be found. That won't be easy. Good center fielders don't grow on trees. Michael Conforto should come into his own as the permanent left fielder. He has good power and can hit for average. And while Duda will never win a gold glove at first, he's still better than anybody else in the system.

Come July, the Mets will have arguably the best starting rotation in baseball with the return of Zach Wheeler from Tommy John surgery. If they can hold their own offensively, they will be contenders for the eastern division of the National League. They may have gotten shellacked by the Royals, but brighter days are ahead for this franchise.

Monday, October 26, 2015

Mets Will Win, If...


Going into their first World Series in 15 years, the New York Mets are slight favorites over the Kansas City Royals. The reason comes down to starting pitching. Put succinctly, the Mets have a huge advantage here. All four of their starters have extremely impressive ERAs, much more impressive than the Royals.

In fact, when you break it down, both teams are fairly close everywhere else. Both have impressive lineups that can inflict damage on the other team's pitching; though, as we shall see, each do it differently. And both clubs have solid closers in their bullpen. But it's their starters that give the Mets the edge and why many feel they should prevail in the Series.

Yet I remain cautiously optimistic. Why? Because until now the Mets' starters haven't been truly tested. The Dodgers' lineup was, well, a joke. At best, there were maybe two or three legitimate hitters on it. The Cubs' lineup was built around the home run. They mauled the Cardinals in the divisional series. Against the more potent arms of the Mets, they wilted.

The Royals won't go away so quietly. While they can hit the occasional home run, they much prefer to smack the ball around to all areas of the park. They took apart the Blue Jays' pitching in the previous series. They can test a pitching staff like few lineups can.

This presents a huge problem for the Mets, especially their likely game two starter, Jacob deGrom. On two occasions deGrom was on the ropes in this post season: game five against the Dodgers and game three against the Cubs. He fell behind early and ofen and put his team in trouble. His pitch count was extremely high through the first four innings of both games. What saved him was the inability of both the Dodgers and Cubs to capitalize on their opportunities.

If the same thing should happen to him against the Royals, it will cost him this time. DeGrom won't be the beneficiary of either a lousy hitting team or a sloppy and undisciplined one. Kansas City's lineup is patient enough to wait him out and make him throw a hittable strike. Also, since they don't strike out a lot, deGrom will have to entice the Royals' hitters to hit 'em where they are rather than where they ain't.

With that in mind, it becomes imperative that game one starter Matt Harvey win the opener. Harvey is for all intents and purposes the most complete starter the Mets have. If they are to win the Series, Harvey must win his games. Period.

Also, Terry Collins will have to get solid performances from his bullpen. And that means more than just Jeurys Familia. At some point Tylor Clippard and Addison Reed are going to be on the mound and both must come through. Expecting these young starters to go eight innings each game is way too much to ask.

So there you have it. The Mets will win if both Jacob deGrom and Matt Harvey win their games and if the bullpen holds up. If either falters, it will be another close but no cigar year for the Amazins.

Prediction: Mets in six.

Saturday, October 17, 2015

Mets vs. Cubs Prediction


For the first time in nine years, the New York Mets will play for the right to get into the World Series. I needn't remind any of you that the last time didn't go particularly well. The image of Carlos Beltran with the bat on his shoulders taking a called third strike has been seared into our collective consciousness. When you couple that with the epic '07 collapse down the stretch, it has been a long and bitter nine years.

But if Mets' fans were chomping at the bits to get back to the World Series, just imagine what Cubs fans have been going through. The last time their team won a pennant was 1945; the last time it won a championship was 1908. At least Mets' fans can take solace that their team has been to four World Series, winning two of them, all since the end of World War II.

Before I begin my series breakdown, I think it only fair to tip my hat to both Mets' management and its owners. While it pains me to admit it, Fred and Jeff Wilpon deserve some credit for giving the green light to Sandy Alderson to make the moves necessary to bring a division title to New York. And Alderson made the most of the trade deadline, getting Yoenis Cespedes and several other key players.

Those trades, along with an underachieving Washington Nationals team - picked by many as a slam dunk for the division, possibly the league championship - allowed the Mets to take this division. Prior to the trades, the Mets were barely a .500 team.

Now on to the matchups. A look at both teams shows that they are virtually identical in runs scored, home runs and team ERA. What that means is that, barring a miscue, this series should go 6 or 7 games. The Mets' have an edge in position players everywhere, except 1st and 3rd base. And they have a deeper starting rotation than the Cubs. However, the Cubs have without a doubt the best starter in the series in Jake Arrieta. The Mets are going to have to beat him at least once in this series in order to advance.

If there is one Achilles heal for the Mets, it's their bullpen. Put succinctly, it's brutal. How brutal? In game 5 against the Dodgers, Terry Collins was forced to use starter Noah Syndergaard in the 7th inning and needed to have his closer Jeurys Familiar pitch the last two innings for the save. The Mets' starters are going to have to go at least seven or eight innings in their starts. Otherwise, this series could get ugly fast.

And even allowing for that, at some point Collins will have to ask his bullpen to get a few outs. Look for him to lean on 42 year old Bartolo Colon to provide some valuable relief. He doesn't have much of a choice. Tyler Clippard, obtained at the trade deadline as the set-up man for Familia, has been a bust of late.

It comes down to this. If the Mets' bullpen can get a few outs in this series, the Mets will prevail; if, not, the Cubs will advance to the World Series for the first time since 1945. The heart says Mets; the head says Cubs.

Prediction: Mets in 7.