Before I get to the Knicks, I wanted to spend a few minutes on the Boston Celtics. For the second season in a row, the darlings of the East were eliminated in a series they were favored in. Last year it was the Knicks; this year it was the Philadelphia 76ers. This loss was particularly egregious because Boston had a 3-1 lead. But like last year, the over-reliance on the three pointer proved to be their Waterloo. Over the last three games of the series, the Celtics shot under 30 percent from downtown. I've said it before and I'll say it again: this is a flawed team that is given way too much credit for a playoff run they had two years ago when everything went their way. Unless changes are made to their offensive approach they will never get to another conference final, much less win another title.
Now onto the Knicks. To say I was rooting for Boston would be putting it mildly. Leon Rose built this roster specifically to beat the Celtics, and while I think it is certainly capable of beating the Sixers, it will be more difficult.
The keys for the Knicks will be as follows:
1. Contain Embiid. There's nothing the Knicks can do to stop Tyrese Maxey; he's going to get his points. But Maxey alone won't be enough for the Sixers to advance. That's where Joel Embiid comes in. Two years ago, the center ostensibly played on one leg and still managed to average 33 points and 10 rebounds per game. The Knicks have to find a way to contain him or they will lose this series.
2. KAT and Brunson have to lead the way. In the last three games of the Atlanta series, this duo finally found their stride, and the results spoke for themselves. Karl-Anthony Towns had 26 assists and two triple doubles while Jalen Brunson averaged 25 points primarily playing off the ball. Both will have to continue to lead this team for New York to advance.
3. Brown has to utilize his bench. Philly has an imposing starting five, but their bench consists of Quentin Grimes and three guys named Moe, Larry and Curley. So thin is the Sixers bench that Nick Nurse was forced to play Maxey, Paul George and VJ Edgecombe each more than 40 minutes in game seven against the Celtics. Even Embiid played 39 minutes. There is no way they can sustain that kind of usage, especially Embiid who was limited to 38 games this season. Unlike his predecessor Tom Thibodeau, Mike Brown will likely go with a ten-man rotation, which means his starters will be have plenty in the tank late in the game. I expect Jose Alvarado, Deuce McBride, Jordan Clarkson and Mitchell Robinson will get their fair share of minutes in this series.
While the Knicks have the home-court advantage, that might not mean as much as you think. That's because both teams closed out their respective series on the road and both are more than capable of winning in each other's buildings. Two years ago, the Knicks blew a chance to clinch at home and were forced to do so in Philly. Don't think for a minute if the shoe were on the other foot that the Sixers couldn't return the favor. This promises to be the most hotly contested series of the second round.
In the end, the Knicks bench will be the determining factor in this series. Rose has constructed a solid roster that is as deep as it is talented. New York in seven.
And now for the other series.
Eastern Conference:
Detroit over Cleveland in six. The Pistons were pushed to a seventh game by the Magic, but while the Cavs can score, their reluctance to play defense will be their undoing in this series.
Western Conference:
Oklahoma City over Los Angeles in five. The Lakers took advantage of a flawed Rockets team in round one. The Thunder have no flaws.
San Antonio over Minnesota in six. If Anthony Edwards were available I might take the T-Wolves. Unfortunately he's not.
If the Knicks advance, I'll preview the third round. If not, my pick to win it all is OKC.
Enjoy the ride, people.
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