For the fourth season in a row, the New York Knicks are in the playoffs; and for the third season in a row, they've won at least 50 games. Without question, this is the best team since the one Pat Riley took to the finals in 1994.
And like that '94 team that didn't have to face Michael Jordan, this Knicks team was the prohibitive favorite to come out of the East going into the season. That's because both Tyrese Haliburton and Jayson Tatum suffered Achilles injuries and were presumed out for at least a year.
Well, a funny thing happened. While Haliburton never came back, Tatum did, making a Boston Celtics team that was already having a surprisingly good year without him an even more imposing threat. As if that wasn't bad enough, the Detroit Pistons, the team the Knicks beat in the first round last year, came out of nowhere to win 60 games. Oh, and I almost forget to mention that the Atlanta Hawks, who went 21-9 over the last 30 games, deliberately tanked their last game so they could fall to the 6th seed and play the Knicks in the first round.
So much for a glide path to the finals. If this Knicks team is going to win its first championship since 1973, it is going to have to do so while going through a gauntlet that would make walking through a mine field seem like a stroll through the park.
The good news is that they should have more in the tank than last year's team. Under Mike Brown, the starters averaged roughly three minutes less per game than they did under Tom Thibodeau. More good news: from January 21, only the Oklahoma City Thunder had a better defensive rating than New York: 109.1 to 109.4. For the season, the Knicks were a league-best +11.7 in the fourth quarter, the highest ever recorded in the modern play-by-play era. Over the last three postseasons, Jalen Brunson has more 40 point playoff games (8) than Nikola Jokic (6) or Anthony Edwards (5); and Karl-Anthony Towns had more double doubles this season (56) than Jokic (55).
Now the bad news? The Knicks two best scorers (Brunson and KAT) also happen to be their two worst defenders. And while this year's team is better than the one that went to Eastern Conference finals last year, it has also been plagued by inconsistencies. The same team that routed the Nuggets in Denver also barely survived the Nets in Brooklyn. I have written about this several times and it bears repeating: the Knicks are capable of going all the way to the finals; they're also capable of being ousted in the first round. And the most frustrating thing about them is that you don't know which team will show up Saturday night at the Garden.
Notwithstanding those concerns, what are the keys to the Knicks beating the Hawks? It comes down to three.
1. Get KAT involved early and often. As good as the Hawks were in the second half, they have no one who can guard Towns in the paint. The Knicks must get the ball to him, no excuses. He is capable of dominating this series. 20 plus points and 14-15 rebounds per game is a must for New York to advance.
2. Control the boards. It's no secret that when the Knicks win it's usually because they out-rebound their opponents, particularly on the offensive glass, and this leads to second or third shot attempts. This is where Mitchell Robinson factors in. I expect Brown to play him and Towns together on the court, especially in the fourth quarter. If New York controls the boards, they will win this series.
3. Don't let Brunson shoulder all the load. While there's no doubt Brunson will be the best Knick in the series, he can't beat the Hawks all by himself. Other players, like Mikal Bridges, OG Anunoby, Josh Hart and Deuce McBride will have to step up and contribute on the score sheet. The Knicks averaged 27.4 assists per game this season; to beat the Hawks, they are going to have to meet or exceed that average.
In case you haven't noticed, the Knicks have a history of drawing tough first-round opponents in the Leon Rose era: The Cavaliers in '23, the Sixers in '24 and the Pistons last year. The Hawks are no exception. Contrary to what many in the fanbase are saying, this will not be a quick series, or an easy one. They won't say it publicly, but to a man the Knicks would much rather have played the Toronto Raptors.
That being said, the Knicks, if they bring their A game, should dispense with Atlanta. If they don't, heads will roll. New York in six.
Here's how I see the rest of the first-round matchups going:
Eastern Conference:
Detroit over Orlando in five. The Magic bludgeoned a flawed Hornets team in the Play-In just for the privilege of playing the Pistons.
Boston over Philadelphia in five. Even with a healthy Joel Embiid this would've been a heavy lift for the Sixers. Without him, it's impossible.
Cleveland over Toronto in five. The Raptors caught a break when the Hawks tanked in their last game. It won't make enough of a difference against the Cavs.
Western Conference:
OKC over Phoenix in five. The Thunder needed an easy first round opponent to defend their title. They got one in the Suns.
San Antonio over Portland in six. I'm probably giving the Trail Blazers more credit than they deserve, or maybe it's because this is the first postseason for the Spurs in seven years.
Denver over Minnesota in six. I know the Ant Man has historically done well against the Joker, but there's something about this Nuggets team that makes me think this could be their year. Plus, I have them in the finals against the Knicks.
Houston over Los Angeles in five. This would've been a great series if Luka and Austin Reaves had been healthy. Without them, the Lakers are toast.
As in past years, if the Knicks advance, I'll preview the second round. If they don't, my pick is the Nuggets to win it all.
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