Having avoided the unthinkable - losing to the Detroit Pistons - the New York Knicks begin a best of "seven" series against the defending NBA champion Celtics tonight in Boston. I put the word seven in quotation marks because the Knicks went 0-4 against the Celtics during the regular season and three of the four losses weren't remotely close. The one competitive game was at the Garden in April, where the Knicks had a three-point lead with 11 seconds to go before Jayson Tatum drilled a three pointer to send it into overtime.
The last time these two teams met was in 2013. The Knicks were 54-28 that season; the Celtics were 41-41. Led by Carmelo Anthony, who averaged 29.2 points per game in the series, New York prevailed 4-2. But as the saying goes, that was then, this is now.
It pains me to say this, but this has the potential to be one of the ugliest and most lopsided series drubbings in Knicks playoff history. That's because the one thing New York has struggled with all-season long just happens to be Boston's number one strength. In their 31 losses this season, the Knicks allowed their opponents to shoot 43 percent from beyond the arc. The Celtics as a team average 48 three-point shot attempts per game. That's the basketball equivalent of lighting a cigarette while filling up your gas tank.
So, with that in mind, do the Knicks have a shot at beating the Celtics? And if not, can they at least avoid a sweep?
The answer to both questions comes down to three keys:
Karl-Anthony Towns: Leon Rose brought him to New York specifically to go up against Kristaps Porziņģis. This is his moment. He must rise to the occasion. No way this team can win with him scoring 10 points like he did twice against the Pistons. Among Knick starters, only Josh Hart has taken less three point shot attempts in these playoffs. That's inexcusable.
Perimeter defense: There's no other way around it. The Knicks must do a better job at defending from downtown or the Celtics will light them up like a Christmas tree. This will require Tom Thibodeau to do something he's not comfortable doing: adjusting his coaching style to match the opponent. If Thibs thinks he can beat the Celtics mano e mano, this will be a very short series. And by short, I mean don't bother booking a flight back to Boston for a game five.
Get off to good start: Against a very inexperienced Pistons team, the Knicks were able to mount multiple comebacks to win the series. I guarantee you that won't happen against the Celtics. In their first three meetings this season, the Knicks trailed Boston after the first quarter by 19, 11 and 19 respectively. All three were blowout losses. In their fourth meeting, they led Boston by three after one and six at the half. The Celtics eked out a narrow two-point OT win in that one. And just in case you were wondering, every Celtic starter except Jaylen Brown played at least 37 minutes in that game; Tatum led with 48 minutes. If the Knicks can avoid their typical slow starts they can make this a series. If they can't, it'll be a sweep.
Bottom line, even if all the above goes their way, the Knicks will still have a very difficult time beating a Celtics team that is deep, fast, explosive and well coached. I've been a Knicks fan since the glory days of Red Holzman. This is a good team with some very good players, and one generational talent. Had they played them last season in tact, who knows, maybe they would've beaten them. It's just hard for me to see that happening this time around.
My heart says Knicks in seven; my head says Celtics in five.
I think my head may be right.
Here are my predictions for the other second round matchups:
Eastern Conference:
Cleveland over Indiana in seven: The Pacers will hold their own against the Cavs, especially if Darius Garland is hobbled by that toe.
Western Conference:
Oklahoma City over Denver in six: SGA vs. the Joker. The winner will likely go on to the finals.
Minnesota over Golden State in six: In the last two postseasons the Ant-Man has eliminated the likes of Kevin Durant, Nikola Jokic, LeBron James and Luka Doncic. Steph Curry will be the next to fall.
If the Knicks advance, I'll preview both conference finals. If they don't, my initial prediction for the finals stands: OKC should win the title.
No comments:
Post a Comment