It's no secret that the New York Rangers are hardly a powerhouse when it comes to their even-strength play. Words like "pedestrian" and "ordinary" describe a team that is "23rd in expected goals percentage at 5-on-5 (48.6%) through 78 games and slightly underwater on percentage of shot attempts per 60 minutes (49.8%), ranking 19th overall." And it's certainly no secret that their power play and goaltending will be keys to whatever success they hope to have in the postseason.
But while the analytic community may be split as to whether the Rangers are a legitimate Stanley Cup contender, there is another, far bigger threat that could trip up this team once the playoffs begin. Over their last 13 games, the Rangers have surrendered the first goal ten times. In half of those games, the deficit has been two or more goals.
Tuesday night at UBS Arena, the Rangers got off to yet another slow start and struggled to establish themselves in the first 20 minutes of play. The Islanders took full advantage, scoring the game's first 3 goals. It would've been more had Igor Shesterkin not made several brilliant saves. When the Rangers finally woke up, they dominated the Isles the rest of the way, scoring two power play goals in the second period and registering the first 10 shots on goal in the third. Unfortunately for the Blueshirts, their rally fell short and they lost 4-2.
Not every slow start has led to a loss. Against the Pittsburgh Penguins (3/16), the Boston Bruins (3/21), the Florida Panthers (3/23) the Philadelphia Flyers (3/26), the Colorado Avalanche (3/28), and the Montreal Canadiens (4/7) the Rangers were successfully able to overcome their sluggish start and win. Indeed, the Rangers lead the NHL with 27 come-from-behind victories; 13 of them came when they were trailing going into the third period.
And therein lies the problem. It’s one thing to play from behind and not get burned during the regular season; it’s quite another to do it in the playoffs. The Rangers are playing with fire if they think they can make a deep run in the postseason by adopting this strategy. Maybe they beat the Islanders or the Capitals in a seven-game series playing like that, but good luck beating the Carolina Hurricanes. This season, the Rangers were 2-1 against the Canes. Both times they won, they played with the lead; the one time they didn't, they trailed early.
The simple truth is that the teams which represent the biggest challenge to the Rangers on their road to the Stanley Cup will not be so easy to come from behind against once the postseason begins. Even the Bruins, a team the Rangers went 3-0 against, will eat them alive if they don't snap out of this funk.
Priority number one for Peter Laviolette and his coaching staff will be to convince this very talented team to show up on time and play a full 60 minutes. These inexplicable slow starts must stop, and stop now. He must light a fire under his players while there is still time.
The good news is that the Rangers have, for the most part, responded positively to what their head coach has preached. From day one, the emphasis has been on structure and puck management. They've been the cornerstones of their success all season long. It's the principle reason why, with the exception of January, they've been among the best teams in the league, and are currently on the verge of winning their first Presidents' Trophy since 2015.
Two years ago, the Rangers trailed the Penguins 3-1 in the first round. They won the next three games; the last one coming in overtime at the Garden. In the next round, they trailed the Hurricanes 2-0 before winning 4 of the next 5 games. In both series, they beat the odds to prevail.
If the Rangers know what's good for them, they will do everything in their power to avoid tempting the hand of fate again.
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