One of the most memorable regular seasons in years has finally come to an end. The last few days were particularly exciting, with the final Wild Card spot and seedings in both conferences not decided until game 82. Now comes the hard part: the playoffs, where the rubber meets the road.
Last season, I went 5-3 in the first round, which given how bad my regular season predictions were - I actually had the Seattle Kraken, Calgary Flames, Buffalo Sabres and Ottawa Senators all making the playoffs this season - is nothing short of miraculous.
Just like I did last time, I will start with the New York Rangers, then work my way down by conference. And again I feel compelled to remind everyone to take these predictions with a grain of salt. If my wealth were dependent on my prowess as a prognosticator, I'd be living in a box. Nostradamus I ain't.
Eastern Conference:
Rangers vs. Washington: This year's Presidents' trophy winner goes up against a team that finished the regular season with a minus 37 goal differential. The Rangers finished the regular season with a franchise record 55 wins and 114 points. With the exception of January, they were the lead dog pretty much from mid-October.
On paper, this series shouldn't be close. The stats tell a story of two very different teams. Alex Ovechkin led the Caps with 31 goals; Artemi Panarin and Chris Kreider led the Rangers with 49 and 39 goals respectively. New York has two centers with more than 70 points a piece; Washington doesn't have any. Panarin led the Rangers in scoring with 120 points; Dylan Strome had 67 for the Caps. The Rangers defense was 4th in the NHL in scoring with 201 points; the Caps were 25th with 135. I could go on.
But as we know all too well, series aren't decided on paper; they're decided on the rink. And if you look carefully under the hood there are some things that should concern the Blueshirts.
Since the All-Star Break, the Caps have the number one power play in the NHL at 28.9 percent. The Rangers are 4th at 25.3 percent. For a team that relies heavily on its ability to score with the man advantage, that's not exactly good news. Fortunately, New York's penalty kill is much better than Washington's: 87.1 percent (2nd) to 77.8 percent (13th) over that stretch.
Then there's the goaltending. Since March 1, both Igor Shesterkin and Charlie Lindgren - Ryan's brother - have identical .916 save percentages and three shutouts. What this means is that yet another advantage the Rangers were hoping to capitalize on will be neutralized.
Last, but not least, there's that old bugaboo that has plagued the Rangers for years: their propensity to play down to the level of their opponent. If it should rear its ugly head in this series, this will be the worst offseason in franchise history, and that includes last year when they were dispatched by the New Jersey Devils. More than ever, this team must ignore the standings and treat the Caps as if they were the Colorado Avalanche.
To prevail, the Rangers must do three things: 1. Play with the lead. Coming from behind against a team that won its last two games 2-0 and 2-1 is playing with fire; 2. Exploit Washington's lack of speed by playing an uptempo game. The Caps may be bigger, but the Rangers are faster; 3. Avoid turnovers at the blue line, especially in the 3rd period. In what promises to be a low-scoring series, every mistake has the potential to be costly.
In the end, the Rangers are the far better team. They have the depth and skill to dispense with the Capitals. If Filip Chytil is able to play and Peter Laviolette decides to dress him, that will give the Blueshirts yet another weapon at their disposal. But this will hardly be a cake walk. Those predicting a sweep are likely to be disappointed. Rangers in six.
Carolina vs. Islanders: For the second straight season these two teams will meet in the first round. Last year, the Hurricanes won in six. But that Canes team didn't have Jake Guentzel, who since his arrival from Pittsburgh has 7 goals and 18 assists in 17 games. This Isles team is actually deeper offensively than last year's team but not nearly as good defensively, especially against the power play where they rank near the bottom of the league. Patrick Roy's group will put up a fight, but they will come up short. Hurricanes in six.
Florida vs. Tampa Bay: Two years ago, the Bolts swept the Puddy Tats in the second round on their way to a third consecutive Stanley Cup finals appearance. Since then, the Panthers have retooled and are a much tougher team to play against. Last year, they made it all the way to Cup finals before losing to the Vegas Golden Knights. Throughout most of this season, they flirted with the best record in the league. By contrast, Tampa has turned over 50 percent of its roster and has looked nothing like those championship teams. The tables have finally turned in the Sunshine State. Panthers in six.
Boston vs. Toronto: One of these years the Maple Leafs will hoist Lord Stanley's Cup. But it won't be this year. Even after losing their top two centers to retirement over the summer, the Bruins are the better team in this matchup. It isn't just that they went 4-0 against the Leafs during the regular season; it's that their forte is checking, which is the Achilles heel of the Leafs, a roster that more closely resembles an All-Star team than a Cup contender. 1967 is fast becoming the new 1940. Bruins in six.
Western Conference:
Dallas vs. Vegas: The Golden Knights will regret not winning their last regular season game. That's because had they done so, they would've avoided playing the Stars, who finished the regular season 12-2-0 and pound for pound are the deepest, most balanced team in the NHL. There are no superstars on this roster; just a relentless group of forwards and defensemen who play the game the way it was meant to be played. And they've got the goaltending to go all the way. Stars in six.
Vancouver vs. Nashville: With all due respect to Peter Laviolette, Rick Tocchet deserves the Jack Adams Award. Since replacing Bruce Boudreau behind the bench midway through last season, the Canucks are 70-35-13. That's a .648 winning percentage. If Thatcher Demko is healthy, they will make a deep run in the postseason. Canucks in six.
Winnipeg vs. Colorado: Talk about a dichotomy. The number one defense in the NHL pitted against the number one offense. The Jets will have the likely Vezina Trophy winner Connor Hellebuyck in net, while the Avs will have Alexandar Georgiev. Nuff said. Nathan MacKinnon may have to settle for winning the Hart Trophy this season. Jets in six.
Edmonton vs. Los Angeles: For the third consecutive year, these two teams will meet in the playoffs, with the Oilers having won the last two. Kris Knoblauch's greatest accomplishment since taking over for Jay Woodcroft wasn't getting the Oilers back on the winning track. They had more than enough talent to do that on their own. It was getting them to commit to playing defense. The results speak for themselves. Edmonton gave up the 10th fewest goals in the league. The Kings' 1-3-1 system will slow down the Oilers high-powered offense a bit, but it won't be able to stop it. Oilers in six.
Assuming the Rangers win their series, I'll do the next round once this one is over.
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