To be clear, the issue is not that the Blueshirts have lost three of their last four games - and four of their last eight - the issue is how they've lost those games. Every single one has been by a margin of four goals: 5-1 to the Buffalo Sabres; 6-2 to the Ottawa Senators; 4-0 to the Washington Capitals; and 7-3 to the Toronto Maple Leafs. The common denominator in all four was how poorly they played in every facet of the game. The Washington loss was a virtual no show, and in the Toronto loss, both Auston Matthews and Mitch Marner were untouched as they skated into the Rangers zone. Not even Patrick Roy could've stopped those goals. Not since last year's playoff loss against the New Jersey Devils have the Rangers been this uninspiring.
The drop-off in play is disconcerting, to say the least. After they beat the Boston Bruins at the Garden on November 25, the Rangers were first in the league in goals against, second in save percentage and third in goal differential. Over their last eight games, they have dropped to 11th in goals against, 11th in save percentage and 9th in goal differential.
Ironically, while the Rangers have been in the midst of this slump, they've also played two of their better games of the season: a 3-2 win over the up and coming Detroit Red Wings and a 4-1 thumping of the L.A. Kings; the latter considered by many to be a legitimate Stanley Cup contender.
So how is this possible? How can a team play so well one game, then fall apart the next? Until the Leafs game, a pattern was emerging. Against teams with winning records, the Rangers were 11-2-0, with a goals against average of 2.38 and a save percentage of .922. Against teams with non-winning records, the Rangers were 8-4-1, with a goals against average of 3.08 and a save percentage of .896. The obvious conclusion was that the Rangers were playing down to the level of their opponent.
The loss against Toronto seems to have thrown that conclusion out the window. The Leafs may not be the Bruins or the Kings, but they are hardly the San Jose Sharks. In fact, as of this writing, they are only four points out of first place in the Atlantic division. If you can't get up for a team like that, especially after a convincing win against the Kings, then you have a problem.
Some have laid the blame at Igor Shesterkin's skates. While it's true that the former Vezina trophy winner has let in several questionable goals this season, the fact is that prior to his last start against the Leafs, his save percentage against winning teams was .917. By comparison, Jonathan Quick's save percentage against those same teams was .932. But here's the rub: if you subtract his shutout against the Pittsburgh Penguins, that save percentage drops down to .906. So, clearly, the problem isn't Igor.
Then just what is the problem? I think it boils down to attrition. Since the injury to Filip Chytil and the subsequent one to Kaapo Kakko, the Rangers have been primarily a two-line team. Nick Bonino, who was brought in for his checking abilities, is simply not a third-line center; not at this stage of his career. When Chytil went down with what is believed to have been the fourth or fifth concussion of his young career, he had six points - all assists - in 10 games. So far, Bonino has one goal and three assists for four points in 27 games. You don't need to be a statistician to know that four points in 27 games isn't going to cut it, not when other teams are getting production from their third lines. And while Kakko wasn't exactly lighting it up on the score sheet, his defense away from the puck made him an asset to his team.
The fact is not having these two forwards in the lineup has put a strain on the ability of the Rangers to generate a sustained forecheck. Peter Laviolette has been forced to rotate Blake Wheeler and Johnny Brodzinski on the first line with Mika Zibanejad and Chris Kreider. Neither are top six forwards. Sooner or later, this was going to catch up with them. That it took this long is a credit to the resiliency of the players and the coaching bonafides of Laviolette's staff. Make no mistake about it: this team wins not because of its talent, but because of its adherence to a system that brings structure and discipline; two words typically not associated with the Blueshirts. Were it not for Artemi Panarin and a power play that is currently ranked second in the league, the Rangers would likely be up a creek without a paddle. Clearly, something needs to be done. But what?
It's important to remember that even with the issues they've had of late, the Rangers are still in first place in the Metropolitan division and second overall in the Eastern conference. They are number one in face off percentage and are one of the top teams in the league in blocked shots. The fast start they got off to has given GM Chris Drury the leeway he needs to not make a panic move.
But everything hinges on how long Chytil remains out? If he is able to return by January, Drury may elect to ride out the storm. But if the long-term prognosis for Chytil is bleak, he will have to trade for a center. Because the Rangers were forced to place Chytil and Kakko on LTIR, they are not accruing cap space during this time. That means that any salary Drury adds will have to be offset once Chytil and Kakko are activated, unless they shut down one or both for the duration of the regular season.
If Drury wants to hedge his bet, a good option would be Sean Monahan of the Montreal Canadiens. The pending UFA has 9 goals, 17 points and a 56.9 win percentage on face offs. And he only makes $1.985 million, meaning even if Chytil and Kakko both return, the Rangers can accommodate his cap hit. Best of all, it would allow Laviolette to move Chytil to right wing where he might prosper more; Kakko would then return to the first line and Bonino to the forth line where both belong.
So, the Rangers have their first slump of the season. The sky isn't falling; not yet, anyway. But there are storm clouds on the horizon.
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