Let me put this as plainly as I can. Chris Drury cannot afford to let Alexis Lafreniere become an RFA next summer. If that happens, if Lafreniere hits the free agent market, there is absolutely no doubt that a team will sign him to an offer sheet. You can bet the ranch on it; in fact, you can bet every ranch in the state of Texas and Montana on it.
How do I know this? Because Jesperi Kotkaniemi was the third overall pick of the Montreal Canadiens in 2018 and after his entry-level contract was over, the Carolina Hurricanes signed him to a one-year, $6.1 million offer sheet. Lafreniere was the first overall pick of the Rangers in 2020, and if you do a side-by-side comparison of both players after only their second season, Lafreniere has more goals and points than Kotkaniemi. Furthermore, Lafreniere appears poised to have a break out season, especially if he plays on the Zibanejad line. There are those in the organization who believe the winger has the potential of becoming one of the team's best forwards. No one in Montreal thought that about Kotkaniemi during his tenure there.
Now I know what you're thinking. The offer sheet to Kotkaniemi was just payback by the Hurricanes for Montreal signing Sebastian Aho to an $8.45 million offer sheet back in 2019; an offer sheet that they were forced to match, mind you. And we all know that payback's a bitch, right? No way a rival GM would ever do that to the Rangers. Oh, really? Perhaps we should run that by Jeff Gorton and John Davidson. Both men were once employed by James Dolan before he unceremoniously fired them last year. Gorton now runs the Montreal Canadiens while Davidson runs the Columbus Blue Jackets. How do you spell "fuck you" in hockey? O-F-F-E-R S-H-E-E-T, that's how.
Wow, that's pretty cynical, wouldn't you say? To think that Gorton and Davidson would be that petty. Are you fucking kidding me? If I were them, I'd hire a messenger to deliver the offer sheet to Dolan personally with the inscription, "Blow me, asshole!" written at the bottom. Then I'd call up Drury and say, "Sorry, man, it's not about you."
So what kind of deal should Drury dangle in front of Lafreniere? The same kind of deal Kotkaniemi got from the Hurricanes after his one-year offer sheet deal expired: $4.8 million x eight years. That's a shit-load of money, Peter. Well, yes and no. Up front, it's a lot, but down the road, if Lafreniere turns out to be the player we all believe he can be, it'll be the steal of the decade. Seriously, how much do you think wingers who average 25 to 30 goals will earn in a couple of years? A helluva lot more than $4.8 million, that's for damn sure. Think about it: Chris Kreider makes $6.5 million a year and he just had the first 30 plus goal season of his career. Trust me, in a couple of years, Drury will look like a genius for inking this contract.
How would locking up Lafreniere to a $4.8 million, eight-year contract starting in 2023-24 affect Drury's ability to re-sign his other RFAs like K'Andre Miller and Filip Chytil? Admittedly, it'll be tough. Drury may have to choose between the two. Personally, I'd keep Miller. The upside on him is far greater and, let's face it, you can always find an affordable 3C out there for between $2.5 and $3 million that could easily replace Chytil. Defensemen with Miller's skillset don't grow on trees.
The reality is that this roster will look radically different after the 2023-24 season anyway. Jacob Trouba's NMC converts to a NTC, which means the Rangers wouldn't need his permission to trade him. Also Ryan Lindgren's contract is up, and while he has been one of the hardest working defensemen on the team, it is unlikely that Drury would re-sign him. That's $11 million more in the kitty to sign other, younger players. Drury's ultimate goal should be that never again would he, or any future GM, be forced to send out a letter to the fans informing them that the Rangers are being torn down and rebuilt. You get one mulligan for that as an organization.
One!
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