Knicks Playoff Preview (Round Three)

With the Boston Celtics being dethroned, there will be a new NBA champion for the seventh year in a row. And if their fans have anything to say about it, that champion will be the New York Knicks.

For the first time in 25 years, New York finds itself in the Eastern Conference Finals. And their opponent is a familiar one. The Indiana Pacers have faced the Knicks three times in the conference finals, with the Knicks winning in 1994 and 1999, and the Pacers winning in 2000.

But it was their last meeting in the second round of last year's playoffs that is front and center now. The Knicks had beaten the Philadelphia 76ers in the first round and were seconds away from potentially taking a 3-0 lead on the Pacers when Andrew Nembhard hit a three pointer with 16 seconds left in the fourth quarter to give Indiana the win.

The loss was significant for New York. OG Anunoby suffered a groin injury in the closing minutes of game two and was unavailable the rest of the series; Mitchell Robinson sustained an ankle injury against the Sixers and appeared in only one game against the Pacers; Josh Hart would later pull an abdominal muscle in game six and was ineffective in game seven; Jalen Brunson broke his left hand in game seven and played only 29 minutes; and Julius Randle - their second-best player - had gone down with a dislocated right shoulder in January and was lost for the remainder of the season. The Pacers would eventually go on to win the series in seven against a Knicks team that looked more like a MASH unit than an NBA roster.

This time around, the Knicks are not only healthy, they're better. Just compare the starting five from last year's series to this year's:

2024: Jalen Brunson, Donte DiVincenzo, Josh Hart, OG Anunoby and Isaiah Hartenstein.

2025: Brunson, Mikal Bridges, Hart, Anunoby and Karl-Anthony Towns.

Bridges and KAT are vast improvements over DiVo and I-Hart respectively; and while this year's roster isn't as deep as last year's, we all know that, barring injuries, Tom Thibodeau typically goes with a seven-man rotation. That means that Deuce McBride and Mitchell Robison will get the bulk of the minutes coming off the bench. Squawk if you want, but this is how Thibs rolls. 

In each of their first two playoff rounds, the Knicks had to overcome challenges in order to win. In round one, they had to contend with a Detroit Pistons team that was nasty and physical. In round two, they had to contend with a Boston Celtics team that could shoot the ball like no one else's business. In this round, they will have to contend with an Indiana Pacers team that from January 1 had the third best record in the NBA and plays in fifth gear pretty much from the opening tip-off to the final buzzer.

There's no getting around it: Indiana will try to dictate the pace, no pun intended. It will be incumbent upon the Knicks to not let that happen. If this series becomes a track meet, the Knicks will lose; if it becomes more of a half-court series, the Knicks will win. Here are the keys:

KAT needs to dominate in the paint. With all due respect to Myles Turner, KAT is the better center; he must play like it. That means no disappearing acts and staying out of early foul trouble. He needs to replicate what he did against the Celtics in game six. The fact is the more involved he becomes in the Knick offense, the harder it will be for the Pacers to double team Brunson. When Towns plays up to his potential, there aren't many players in the league who can stop him.

Knicks must defend against the fast break. Few teams in the league can transition from defense to offense like the Pacers. Their speed will test the Knicks resolve. To thwart Indiana's fast-break game, New York will have to get back on defense quickly. That means no standing around to see if a shot goes in. This will take discipline on their part, but they'll have to do it in order to advance.

Brunson must continue to excel. Tyrese Haliburton is on a mission to prove to his critics that he's not overrated. But Jalen Brunson is on a mission of his own to prove to his critics that he's worthy of being called an elite player. Both statements are true. Haliburton is not overrated, but in this series, he will be the second-best point guard on the court. The fact is that what Brunson is doing in these playoffs is truly something to behold, and the only people who haven't acknowledged it are the ones who refuse to admit they were wrong about him in the first place. If Mr. Clutch continues to play as he has, the Pacers are in trouble.

Knicks have to distribute the ball. While Brunson will be the Knicks best player in this series, he can't be their only option offensively. New York is at its best when it distributes the ball; conversely, it struggles when it doesn't. It won't do any good if Brunson scores 35 points while Towns, Bridges and Anunoby collectively score 25. To win, all the kids have to play in the sandbox.

Bottom line, the Knicks are the better team; they're healthy and they have the home court. But the Pacers are hardly Swiss cheese. They knocked off the number one seed Cleveland Cavaliers in the second round and they've had the Knicks number the last three times they've met. This will be another close series, but the men in orange and blue should advance to the finals for the first time since 1999.  Knicks in six.

Western Conference Finals: 

Minnesota over Oklahoma City in seven. I know I picked the Thunder to win it all in my last preview, but frankly I like the Timberwolves in this series, and not just because KAT vs. Julius Randle would be a finals for the ages, but because OKC struggled at times against a Denver Nuggets team that was as thin as a piece of loose leaf paper. What will they do against a Timberwolves team that is bigger and just as athletic as they are? I'm guessing they won't do as well.

Knicks Half Way Home

In the end, it wasn’t close. The New York Knicks, who needed fourth quarter comebacks in games one, two and four, left nothing to chance in game six. They dominated the Boston Celtics pretty much from the opening tip-off, en-route to a series-clinching 119-81 victory Friday night at Madison Square Garden. It was, by far, their most complete game in these playoffs.

Every starter was in double digits, with Josh Hart recording a triple double. Jalen Brunson led all Knicks with 23 points, while Karl-Anthony Towns scored 21 and grabbed a team-high twelve rebounds. The win catapulted New York into the Eastern Conference finals for the first time since 2000; it was also the first time since 1999 that the Knicks clinched a best of seven series on their home court.

The off-season acquisitions of Mikal Bridges and Towns - often criticized during regular season - have given this franchise its best starting five since the Pat Riley / Jeff Van Gundy era.  If this is what Leon Rose envisioned over the summer when he gave up five first-round picks, Julius Randle and Donte DiVincenzo, then he has been vindicated, at least for the moment.

But it was the return of Mitchell Robinson from a left ankle injury at the end of February that seems to have had the biggest impact on this team's fortunes. The 7-0 center has vastly improved the Knicks rim defense. Against the Celtics, New York was a plus 46 when Robinson was on the court versus a minus 43 when he was off. Imagine how many more regular season wins the Knicks might have had if Robinson had been healthy all year. Indeed, the best decision Rose appears to have made was not unloading him at the trade deadline for a depth scorer. Had he done so, the Knicks would probably be on the golf course right now.

I'd be lying if I said I saw this coming. My heart may have said Knicks in seven, but my head said Celtics in five. Given how many times my heart has been broken over the years, I had every reason to expect a quick and decisive loss for the men in orange and blue.

To quote a well-known scripture verse,  "O ye of little faith."

In my defense, though, I was hardly alone. Even an incurable optimist would've had a hard time believing the Knicks were capable of beating the Celtics in the playoffs, given they were 0-4 against them during the regular season, and only one of those losses was competitive. That most of the sports writers and talking heads had Boston winning in four or five games was less about an anti-New York bias than it was about an objective, sober analysis of where both teams were. The overwhelming view was that the Knicks were a very good team that was still a year or two away from challenging for the title.

But then a switch was thrown and logic went out the window. The fact is these are no longer the same Knicks who struggled during the regular season against the elite teams in the league. They have a swagger about them that is eerily familiar to those '90s teams. The resiliency that was missing most of the season, and which defined last year's team, is back with a vengeance. They believe in themselves, and they feel they are never out of a game, as evidenced by the fact that they've come-from-behind in six of their eight postseason wins.

And now they are eight wins away from their first NBA championship since 1973.

52 years! God, when you say it like that, it sounds like an eternity. That's because it is. Think about it: 90 percent of the fans who showed up outside the Garden to celebrate the Knicks win over the Celtics probably weren't alive in 1973. Hell, I wouldn't be surprised if a third of them weren't around when they last went to the finals in '99. When I tell people I remember Clyde Frazier, Earl Monroe, Willis Reed and Dave DeBusschere, I'm not bragging; I'm just showing my gratitude for having had the opportunity to see such greatness in my lifetime.

And now all of us have the opportunity to see such greatness right before our very eyes. There is something special about this Tom Thibodeau-coached team; I can feel it. Every once in a while the basketball gods shower their favor upon a team. Don't get me wrong: I am not predicting a championship. Knowing my luck, that would be the kiss of death. What I am saying is that if the Knicks play the Indiana Pacers like they did the Celtics in game six, I like their chances. A lot.

This much is certain: the next time my head contradicts my heart, I'll tell it to go fuck itself!