Chris Drury Comes Face to Face with Basic Math

In a perfect world - before the NHL instituted a salary cap - Pavel Buchnevich would still be a New York Ranger. Don't kid yourself. When Chris Drury says that there's only so much cap space and ice time to go around, he's only being half truthful. You think for one moment that Gerard Gallant wouldn't have found ice time for a top six forward who scored almost a point per game this past season? Of course he would've, and so would you or any half-way reasonably sane head coach.

The problem was the salary cap. Period. No matter how many permutations you care to run - and, trust me, I ran them all - beyond the 2021-22 season, there was simply no room for him. Not with the contract renewals that are coming over the next three years. Below are the estimates of where I expect each player to wind up at. Remember, these are ONLY estimates.

2021-22: Filip Chytil ($2M) and Igor Shesterkin ($4M); 

2022-23: Mika Zibanejad ($9M), Ryan Strome ($6.5M), Adam Fox ($9M), Kaapo Kakko ($4M), Vitali Kravtsov ($3.5M) and Alexandar Georgiev ($3M); 

2023-24: Alexis Lafreniere ($6M) and K'Andre Miller ($4M). 

That comes out to a cool $51 million.

Now let's add in the players currently under contract through at least 2024. Chris Kreider ($6.5M), Jacob Trouba ($8M), Ryan Lindgren ($3M), Barclay Goodrow ($3.6M), Blake Coleman - yes, I'm including him - ($5M), and figure an additional $6 million to fill out the roster. That comes out to $32.1 million.

All told, the final nut is $83.1 million. Let's assume the salary cap goes up two million to $83.5M. You're pretty much maxed out. Now if you can somehow manage to squeeze an additional $5.5 million - the expected value of Buchnevich's next contract - into that mix and still come out under the cap, you must be using some imaginary math I'm not familiar with. And keep in mind, since the above numbers are only estimates, the actual total could be higher.

The bottom line is this: It wasn't a question of why Buchnevich had to go, but when. The truth is that by choosing to hold onto him at last year's trade deadline, the Rangers lost any chance they had of extracting equal value for him. And now with every GM in the league knowing the tight spot Drury was in, there was zero chance he was going to get a decent return on investment. Face it, it was a buyer's market and Drury knew it. With no other choice left to him, he was forced to sell low.

And just in case you were wondering why Drury didn't sign him to a one-year deal, the reason is that Buchnevich had already agreed to a two-year deal once before. This time around he was looking for a long-term contract. It's highly unlikely he would've agreed to a one year deal. But let's say he did. Do you think the outcome would've been any different? If anything, Drury might've had a harder time moving Buchnevich at next year's trade deadline, especially with the entire league knowing he was going to be a UFA. Hell, he'd be lucky to get a mid-round pick for him.

Be grateful that Drury at least got a bottom six forward and a second round pick in next year's draft. Out in Colorado, the Avalanche might well end up losing one of their top forwards for nothing. Brendon Saad, who made $6 million last season, is now a UFA. After signing Cale Maker to a $9 million per year contract, the Avalanche have about $20 million in cap space left to re-sign four forwards (one of whom is Gabriel Landeskog), a defenseman and a goalie. Landeskog recently rejected an offer of $6* million per for five years. Let's assume that both sides eventually come to an agreement on $9 million per over seven years. Now you've got $11 million leftover for three forwards, one defenseman and the goalie. That's an average of $2.2 million per player. In other words, bye, bye Brendon Saad.

And it gets worse for the Avalanche. In two years Nathan MacKinnon ($6.3M) becomes an unrestricted free agent. You think Jack Eichel's worth $10 million? Wait'll MacKinnon hits the open market. The bidding will start at a cool $12 mill. This is the nightmare scenario every GM in the league is grappling with right now. Over the next couple of years, teams will be forced to part with top-tier talent for little or next to nothing just to remain compliant with a cap that, thanks to the worst pandemic in over a century, is artificially low. Whether you're name is Chris Drury or Joe Sakic, the job is the same. Put the best possible product you can on the ice and let the chips fall where they may.

Speaking of Eichel, if we're going to skewer Drury over the Buchnevich salary dump, he deserves credit for not panicking and giving up the farm for the disgruntled star. The Buffalo Sabres seem to have miscalculated here. Their excessive and unrealistic demands were soundly rejected, not just by the Rangers, but by every other team they were in discussions with. Kudos to Drury for holding the line. With the 15th pick in the draft, the Rangers took a winger who is the sort of north-south type player they desperately need more of. 

Yes, yesterday was a rough day; a sobering day. Pavel Buchnevich is gone. It sucks, I know, but that's life. They'll be better days ahead. This team should continue to improve, and if the kids play up their potential, they could make the playoffs this coming season.

Last time I checked, that was the "unofficial" goal, right?

* Correction: earlier I wrote that Landeskog had rejected a $7 million offer. It was actually $6 million. I have made the correction.

 

Major Decisions for Rangers This Offseason

Over the next couple of months, the New York Rangers will have to make a number of major and tough decisions regarding how this team will look once the 2020-21 season gets underway. John Davidson and Jeff Gorton have their work cut out for them.

A number of sports "analysts" have chimed in with their opinions, and with the rare exception or two, you can tell none of them have ever run a professional sports franchise. That notwithstanding, I thought I'd dip my big toe into the pool and see if I drown. Spoiler alert, I don't swim.

The Number One Pick: Under no circumstances should Davidson and company trade this pick, not even for the proverbial king's ransom, which for the record hardly ever resembles a ransom, much less a king's one. I've seen most of the prosed trade packages and not one of them makes sense, not even the one involving the Senators sending the Rangers the number three pick along with Brady Tkaczuk in exchange for the number one. No disrespect to Tkaczuk, who is a solid two-way forward, but at best he's a 25 goal scorer. You don't trade the overall number one pick for a player you can get in the middle of the first round in any given year.

Even if Alexis Lafreniere isn't the second coming of Jaromir Jagr, he's still better than anyone the Blueshirts have at left wing, including, dare I say it, Artemi Panarin. The moment he steps onto the Garden ice, he instantly becomes one of the best forwards on this team, and if he does in fact become the next Jagr, he will be the generational player this franchise hasn't had since the days of Mark Messier. Only a fool would trade that away, and I don't believe either Davidson or Gorton are fools.

Second-Line Center: Do the Rangers re-sign Ryan Strome or do they look elsewhere? I know I've beaten this like a dead horse, but thanks to the Kevin Shattenkirk buyout last year, the Rangers will have just north of $13 million in available cap space to attempt to resign four RFAs and one UFA. That's not a lot of space, given that Strome is arbitration eligible and will likely command a hefty raise from last year's $3.1 million contract.

If the braintrust decides to look elsewhere, the pickins are slim. A trade for the rights to Tampa Bay Lightning center Anthony Cirelli - the current fave of the peanut gallery - will come with a huge price tag. The Lightning will almost certainly demand something close to equal value in return, and that return has to something they can retain given their own cap problems, which are considerably worse than the Rangers. I'm thinking Filip Chytil and Vitali Kravtsov. Assuming the Blueshirts say yes, which they shouldn't, they will likely have to pony up about $6 million per over the next six years. That's roughly 45 percent of the available cap space. And I'm not even sure Cirelli is worth that kind of money given that he's scored a measly 5 points in 13 playoff games and he's currently the number two center on this team with Steven Stamkos out with an injury.

The smart move is to re-sign Strome to a two-year bridge deal for about $5.5 million per until you find out if Chytil is the real deal or not. If Strome doesn't pan out, you can always leave him exposed in next year's expansion draft. Hell, he's already been on three teams in five years, what's one more team in the grand scheme of things?

Henrik Lundqvist: Let's not beat around the bush. With the exception of Messier and Brian Leetch, no one has done more for this franchise over the last 30 years than The King. He deserves a better fate than the one that's currently awaiting him, which is to be a backup for 24 year-old Igor Shesterkin. Gorton has already said the Rangers will not go into camp with three goalies, so assuming they sign Alexandar Georgiev, that means Lundqvist is the odd man out.

The only question remaining is whether Lundqvist retires, which would give the Blueshirts all $8.5 million of his cap hit to play with, or he gets bought out, which would leave $5.5 million on the books next season and $1.5 million on the books for 2021-22. Obviously, the former would be a dream come true, but seriously, if you were Lundqvist would you leave that kind of money on the table knowing that you might be out of hockey next year? I sure as shit wouldn't.

With trade options severely limited by 1. Lundqvist's age (38) and 2. his no trade clause, the consensus is that he will be bought out. And that would mean the Rangers would be carrying a staggering sum of $13 million in dead cap space going into next season; 16 percent of the NHL salary cap. Anyway you slice it, that's insane. This is what happens when you sign players in their 30s to very long contracts with no movement clauses.

Lack of Toughness: Unless you believe in flukes, what you saw in Toronto was a Rangers team that got bounced around by the Hurricanes. We saw this all too many times throughout the season: a team with very creative forwards that wasn't adept enough to win the battles in the trenches. More often than not, the goaltending saved their bacon, but not in the Qualifying round. When push came to shove, the Blueshirts got handed their lunch and dinner with dessert on the side.

Obviously, the team needs a transfusion of toughness in order to succeed in the postseason. Perhaps Gorton can trade Pavel Buchnevich - who's in his walk year anyway - for a scrappy winger who isn't afraid to take a hit or initiate one. Or he can just promote a couple of the meatier forwards already in the system like Morgan Barron and Austin Rueschhoff, both of whom can play either center or wing and weigh 220 pounds each. Combined with Julien Gauthier, another 220 pound winger that was obtained from the Hurricanes last year, and Brendon Lemieux - a must sign - the Blueshirts could finally be the team with a chip on its shoulder instead of the other way around. I firmly believe that when it comes to hits, it is far better to give than to receive.

Left Defense: It's no secret that the left side of this defense after Ryan Lindgren is a major liability. Both Marc Staal and Brendan Smith are over 30 and at least two seasons removed from being legit starting defensemen. Staal, in particular, was about as slow as a freight train stuck on the 7th Avenue Express. The good news is that both players are in the last year of their contracts, which means they will be gone after next season. The bad news is that their contracts - $5.7 and $4.35 million for Staal and Smith respectively - make it virtually impossible for them to be traded, even with the Rangers absorbing half of the load. So what to do?

Well call me a fool, but I believe in improving where you can. With the recent, shall we say, "issues" in Arizona, the Coyotes find themselves with no first round pick in either this or next year's draft. The Rangers could dangle the number one pick they got from the Carolina Hurricanes in the Brady Skjei deal for 22 year-old left-handed defensemen Jakob Chychrun. He would instantly become their best left-handed defenseman and coach David Quinn could pair him with Jacob Trouba to make a formidable tandem. And since he's already signed to a team-friendly $4.6 million for the next five seasons, he would help solidify the one glaring weakness this team had throughout the season.

If Chychrun isn't available, the Rangers should give St. Louis a call and inquire about Vince Dunn, another solid left-handed defenseman who may be too expensive for the Blues to keep. Dunn is an RFA, so Gorton would have to come to terms with him once the two teams agreed on a trade, but somewhere in the neighborhood of $4 to $5 million per over six years should suffice. Either player would instantly slide into the number one pairing and become a staple to this beleaguered defensive corps.

Lindgren and Adam Fox would remain the second defensive pairing, and Quinn could move Smith to the right side on the third pairing, where he's played before. Staal and Libor Hajek would then alternate on the left side. When K'Andre Miller is ready (2021-22) he would take over on the left side, and if there's no one inside the organization that can step in to play the right side, they could always look outside via a trade or signing. Don't forget, most of that dead cap space will be gone after next year.

Obviously, Deangelo would be the casualty in this scenario, but if that's what it takes to shore up your top two defensive lines, then so be it. Besides, Deangelo, apart from his scoring prowess, brings a lot of baggage with him, and he's not exactly Larry Robinson on the blue line, if you know what I mean.

I'm sure there are a few other minor issues Gorton will have to attend to, but these are the biggies, as I see them. If the Rangers solve these problems, they will be able to accelerate their rebuilding process and maybe even challenge for the Cup next season.

Rangers Get the Break of a Lifetime

Well that was quite a turnaround. In less than a week, the New York Rangers went from a franchise that had just been humiliated by the Carolina Hurricanes in three straight to a franchise that just been humiliated by the Carolina Hurricanes in three straight but who won the NHL draft lottery. That's right, the second youngest team in the NHL with an average age of 25.7 years - the Blackhawks are the youngest at 25.6 - will get the honor of selecting Alexis Lafreniere with the number one pick. That's assuming John Davidson and Jeff Gorton don't lapse into the same coma their team was in last week and choose someone else.

Look, there's no way to sugar coat what happened in Toronto. In a word, it was dreadful. The Blueshirts played a total of two solid periods of hockey in the entire series, and in neither did they emerge with a lead. In fact, the Hurricanes pretty much dictated play at both ends of the ice.

I spoke about goaltending as being one of the keys to this series, and that proved to be the case. Unfortunately, it was the tandem of Petr Mrazek and James Reimer (who hadn't started a playoff game in seven years) that stole the show. Henrik Lundqvist, who was a surprise starter in games one and two when Igor Shesterkin was ruled ineligible due to a groin pull, was average at best.

Mika Zibanejad, Chris Kreider and Hart Trophy finalist Artemi Panerin scored one goal a piece; the latter coming on a five on three power play advantage. It would be the only power play goal the Rangers would score in the series after going 5 for 15 against Carolina during the regular season. By comparison, the top line of Sebastian Aho, Andrei Svechnikov and Teuvo Teravainen accounted for seven goals. In the end, it wasn't as close as the games' final scores would indicate.

Clearly the rebuild that started two seasons ago still has a ways to go. Davidson and Gorton have a lot of tough questions that need answering and not a whole lot of time to get them. For instance, how much stock do they put into those three games in Toronto? Was the second-half run a tease or the real deal? Does this core, as presently constructed, have what it takes to make a deep run in the playoffs? Which players do they keep and which do they show the door?

If management feels that the Hurricane series was an aberration, they will face a daunting task during the offseason. The Rangers will be carrying about $7.5 million in dead cap space next season, most of it courtesy of the Kevin Shattenkirk buyout last year. Including existing contracts, they will have just over $13 million in available cap space with which to sign RFAs Tony DeAngelo, Ryan Strome, Brendan Lemieux and Alexandar Georgiev, UFAs Jesper Fast and Greg McKegg and rookie Lafreniere. Thankfully, Lafreniere will only cost them $925,000. By the way, that supposes the kid actually plays with the big club next season. For argument's sake, let's just pencil him into the starting lineup, either on the second or third lines.

You can see the dilemma here. DeAngelo and Strome will command the lion's share of the available cap space: DeAngelo at roughly $3 mil and Strome coming in around $5. That leaves about $4 million to divvy up among the rest. Unless Lundqvist retires - a long shot - or the Rangers decide to buy him out - unwise - at least two of the aforementioned free agents will be playing for another team next season.

Frankly, depending on Lundqvist to bail out his bosses when they tossed him aside for a younger model is wishful thinking. That leaves a buyout. But before they take on more dead cap space, they should consider trading Pavel Buchnevich. Freeing up his $3.25 million salary would allow the team to promote minor leaguers like Libor Hajek, K'Andre Miller and Vitali Kravtsov. Buchnevich had a good year, but let's face it, there are players already in the system that could easily take his place. Kaapo Kakko would be an ideal choice. He was one of the few Rangers who distinguished himself against the Hurricanes last week; another was Jacob Trouba.

The Rangers should also consider moving Marc Staal, even if it means eating half of his $5.7 million contract. I suspect there are plenty of teams who'd be willing to take on an experienced defenseman for $2.85 million. Hajek and Miller both deserve a chance to prove what they can do. Having said that, I'd keep Brendan Smith. He can play both the wing and defense on either side and he's more affordable.

Moving Staal and Buchenevich, and allowing Fast to walk, would save approximately $6 million in cap space and allow Davidson and Gorton to keep this core intact. In that event, just imagine what next year's lineup could look like.

Forward Line One: 

Panarin, Strome, Kakko

Forward Line Two: 

Lafreniere, Zibanejad, Kreider

Forward Line Three:

Howden, Chytil, Kravtsov

Forward Line Four:

Lemieux, McKegg, Gauthier 

Defense Pairing One:

Lindgren, Fox

Defense Pairing Two:

Hajek, Trouba

Defense Pairing Three

Miller, DeAngelo

Goaltenders

Shesterkin, Georgiev

Time will tell what moves Davidson and Gorton end up making. But this much is certain: with Lafreniere as their number one pick and a solid core in place, this team just moved one step closer to being a contender and should be a force to be reckoned with for years to come.

The Rangers Find Their Man and, Oh Baby, Does He Have A Lot On His Plate

The search for Glen Sather's replacement has officially come to an end. John Davidson, former President of Hockey Operations for both the St. Louis Blues and Columbus Blue Jackets, is coming to the New York Rangers to become their President of Hockey Operations.

Let's cut to the chase. This isn't a repeat of 1986, when the Rangers' braintrust turned the keys of the kingdom over to Phil Esposito, a former player and team announcer who thought he had what it took to build a Stanley Cup championship team. However, a series of bad trades - most notably Mike Ridley and Kelly Miller for Bobby Carpenter - set the franchise back years and Esposito was eventually fired after only three seasons. But while Espo bombed on Broadway, Davidson won't. That's because this isn't his first rodeo. He has already successfully built two teams in both St. Louis and Columbus; the latter having completed a sweep of this year's President Trophy winner Tampa Bay Lightning. He knows the league inside and out and is well respected by his peers. The Rangers appear to have struck gold here.

That being said, Davidson has quite the challenge on his hands. As a result of a purge that started two seasons ago, the Blueshirts have more kids on their roster than the freshman class at Hofstra, as well as two picks in each of the first two rounds of this year's NHL draft. Thanks to a fortuitous bounce in the lottery, their own number one just happens to be the second overall pick. The last time the Rangers had a pick this high was 1966, the year they selected Brad Park. The pressure couldn't be greater.

Assuming they don't pull a Gettleman and go for some obscure player that won't play for maybe three years and is at best a second rounder - unlikely - they will probably wind up with either center Jack Hughes or right wing Kaapo Kakko. Kakko, at 194 pounds, is the more developed player and could conceivably make the team this season, so let's hope the Devils take Hughes at number one.

But apart from the draft, Davidson will have to contend with a depleted bench and whether or not to use the team's considerable cap space of $20 million to address areas of need via free agency. It's no secret that the Rangers have had their eyes fixed on free agent Artemi Panarin of the Blue Jackets for quite some time. Davidson traded for him two years ago, and while the smart money has him going to the Florida Panthers, it's possible J.D. could convince him that the bright lights of Broadway would be a better place for him to lace up his skates than the palm trees of South Beach.

Panarin will not come cheap, though. He's probably looking for a long-term deal somewhere between $10 and $12 million per, and based on his stats he's worth every penny. At just 27, he could easily play another 8 or 9 years, and yes, he's a winger in a long line of wingers on a team that desperately needs a center, but couldn't you just see him playing on the same line with Kakko on the right and Mika Zibanejad in the middle? Now that would be something to behold.

But even if Davidson and G.M. Jeff Gorton can't entice Panarin to come to Broadway, one thing they must not do is entertain the thought for even a second of trading for Pengiuns center Evgeni Malkin, who will be 33 next season and is coming off a down year in which he missed 14 games. No matter how tempting the offer might be - and let's be honest, for Pittsburgh it would basically be a salary dump - Malkin is a terrible fit for a young team like this. If he were five years younger yes - make that definitely yes - but with the Rangers at least two years away from possible contention, it would rank as one of the dumbest moves this franchise has ever made; and, let's not forget, this is the same franchise that gave away Rick Middleton for Ken Hodge.

Then there's the decision about whether to buy out the contract of Marc Staal. At 32, Staal is clearly showing his age. He has two seasons remaining at $5.7 million per. If the Rangers buy him out it they would have to carry four years of dead cap space, the majority of which would be in the first two years: $2.9 million and $3.7 million respectively. That's $6.6 million for a player not even on the roster. On the bright side, they would free up $2.8 million this season that they could put towards acquiring a player like 28 year old Matt Duchene, the center the Blueshirts desperately need and who, as an unrestricted free agent, will command a healthy raise from the $6 million he made last season with Columbus. Let's say Davidson offers $11 million to Panarin and $10 million to Duchene and they each accept. That would give the Rangers two outstanding lines going into next season. Not bad for his first month on the job.

Think about it: a solid draft, two significant signings, a contract buyout, plus a trade or two, and just like that the 2019-20 Rangers could have themselves a fairly promising season.