Knicks At the Break

Going into the All-Star break, the New York Knicks record stands at 36-18. They are solidly in third place in the Eastern Conference, five and a half games ahead of the Indiana Pacers and two and a half games behind the Boston Celtics. Since November 15, they've gone 31-12, for a .721 winning percentage. Only the Oklahoma City Thunder and the Cleveland Cavaliers have a higher winning percentage over that span. Overall, this is the best start this franchise has had since the 1996-97 season when they went 39-15 over their first 54 games. They finished that season 57-25 and went to the ECF. This season, they are on pace to finish 55-27.

Objectively speaking, the Knicks are an outstanding team on the cusp of being elite. Their starting five is arguably the best in the NBA. I say arguably because, let's face it, when Kristaps Porziņģis is healthy, the Celtics starting five is better. Still, that's pretty damn impressive. Give Leon Rose props for putting this roster together over the last three years.

But for all the accolades the starters get - and deservedly so - it's the bench that remains this team's Achilles heal. Right now, Tom Thibodeau has maybe three players he can trust coming off the bench: Precious Achiuwa, Deuce McBride and Cam Payne. And with OG Anunoby missing the last five games due to an injured foot, Thibs was forced to start Achiuwa at the four. As a result, the Knicks starting five leads the league in minutes played per game, with Mikal Bridges (38.2) and Josh Hart (37.8) leading the way.

That might help explain why they ran out of gas against the Thunder in Oklahoma City in early January after leading for most of the game, or why they are 11-12 against teams that are .500 or better. And keep in mind, they still have three games against the Cavs, who are 20-6 against those very same teams. 

With the Knicks up against the second apron, Rose didn't have the cap space he needed to bring in reinforcements at the trade deadline. The return of Mitchell Robinson - now slated for late February - is pretty much it. The 7-0, 240 pound center should provide badly needed help for a team that is ranked near the bottom of the league in both rim and perimeter defense. But how much will Robinson be able to contribute to this team? Realistically, if Thibs can get 12-15 minutes per game out of him, that's still better than nothing.

Another question is whether the return of Robinson means Karl-Anthony Towns moves over to the four? When he was with the Minnesota Timberwolves last season, KAT played the four while Rudy Gobert played the five. That combo proved to be one of the most effective in the NBA, with the T-Wolves advancing to the Western Conference finals before eventually losing to the Dallas Mavericks. If Thibs elects to go that route, it means Anunoby switches back to the three where, frankly, he is more effective and Bridges becomes the two, with Hart coming off the bench. All of this, however, hinges on how durable Robinson is once he returns.

If I had to guess, I'd say Thibs will experiment with KAT at the four, but ultimately decide to keep him at the five. Doing that allows him to bring Robinson in off the bench where he will be the most useful. Besides, even when fully healthy, Robinson isn't much of a scorer, and against a team like the Celtics - their most likely opponent in the second round - the Knicks will need offensive production from their center position, and Towns is, without a doubt, the most prolific scoring center New York has had since Patrick Ewing.

To reiterate what I wrote above, and what I've been saying pretty much all season long, this is an outstanding team on the cusp of being elite. That Rose hasn't gotten consideration for Executive of the Year is nothing short of a crime, given the state this franchise was in prior to his arrival. There are still some holes left to fill, but I am confident they will be filled during the offseason.

Be patient, Knicks fans, the light you see at the end of the tunnel ISN'T a freight train. 

Knicks Hit a Road Block

When the New York Knicks beat the Utah Jazz at the Garden on New Year's Day, it was their 9th win in a row. They were 24-10 overall - 19-4 in their last 23 - and only a half game behind the Boston Celtics for 2nd place in the Eastern Conference. After a rough start, they were finally "rounding into shape," as I wrote at the end of December.

Well two days later they played the Thunder in Oklahoma City. For most of the game the Knicks were the better team. They led 66-54 at the half, 88-80 after three, and 97-92 with 6 minutes to go in the 4th. They were on the verge of a signature win that would catapult them into legit contender status. Even their most ardent skeptics would have to take them seriously now, right?

And then all of a sudden the wheels came off; the Knicks, who had their best quarter of the season in that first half, missed shot after shot, with their captain Jalen Brunson the prime culprit. OKC outscored New York 25-10 the rest of the way to win the game 117-107.

Though disappointed, the Knicks remained confident. It was just a bad ending to what was an otherwise strong game. They decided to put it behind them. Then came the game against the Bulls in Chicago. Like the game against the Thunder, the Knicks were ahead at the half. Only this time, the collapse didn't occur in the final six minutes; it happened much earlier. The Bulls ran roughshod over the men in orange and blue 41-17 in the 3rd quarter and won the game 139-126.

Words like "low energy" and "fatigue" were used to describe what the problem was. Not to worry, the Knicks reassured us, now that they were home, they would be fully rested and ready to go. Then the Orlando Magic - a team that more closely resembled a MASH unit than a basketball roster - came to town and beat them 103-94. The losing streak was now three. Alarm bells were starting to sound at the Garden.

What was happening? I mean losing to the best team in the Western Conference was understandable; even losing to the Bulls could be chalked up to a team simply running out of gas after a long road trip. But how do you explain losing to a team that was missing four starters from its lineup on your home court? You can't. 

When then Knicks defeated the lowly Toronto Raptors 112-98 two days later, the fears were temporarily allayed. Everyone was eagerly looking forward to the rematch with the Thunder at the Garden. New York had some unfinished business with OKC. This time, they would close the deal. 

But it was the Thunder that closed the deal, and decisively. They raced out to a 31-17 lead after one, and 70-43 lead after the first half, on their way to a 126-101 rout. It was the most humiliating loss of the season for the Knicks, and it was as baffling as it was thorough. 

All of a sudden this team that Kendrick Perkins thinks is the second best in the East looks very pedestrian. While they are still in third place in the conference, there are some major concerns that aren't going away.

Ian Begley shared some of them on Twitter after the game:

With tonight's blowout loss, Knicks fall to 0-5 vs. teams that entered play tonight w/a better overall record than their 25-14 mark. They are 9-11 vs teams that entered play tonight w/record of .500 or better (including 3-1 vs ORL). NYK is 1-6 vs top 8 teams in NBA standings.

While contenders don't always beat other contenders, they typically don't go 1-6 against them. For example, the game before they beat the Knicks, the Thunder lost to the Cleveland Cavaliers 129-122. The Cavs had a one-point lead going into the 4th quarter and actually increased it.

So what's wrong? In a nutshell, the Knicks are struggling on both ends of the court.

On defense, while they still have the league's 8th best points against average at 110.5, there have been huge lapses in their coverage on the court. Way too often, opponents are left wide open to hit three pointers, or convert back-door plays under the basket. Last season's team was relentless on defense. Opponents generally feared playing the Knicks because of the way they made them work for their baskets. This season, opponents rarely break a sweat looking for an open shot.

On offense, while there's no doubt that this starting five is better than last season's, there have been inconsistencies. Over the last 10 games, the Knicks are shooting only 29 percent from downtown. They normally shoot 38 percent from three. When the Knicks are winning, they excel at ball movement. They are 7th in the NBA in assists with 1060. However, when they lose, it's usually because they hold onto the ball too long, making it easy for opponents to double team them. 

The lack of depth on this roster is another cause for concern. Without Deuce McBride the last few games, and with Mitchell Robinson still several weeks away from returning, Tom Thibodeau only had two players he could count on coming off the bench: Cam Payne and Precious Achiuwa. At this point Jericho Sims is practically an afterthought. What this means is that not only are the starters playing more minutes than they should, when they are on the court they have to produce. There's no way the Knicks can win with Mikal Bridges scoring zero points and OG Anunoby scoring only four.

Look, the Knicks are not the only winning team that's struggling right now. The Boston Celtics are just 6-6 in their last 12 games. I'm sure there are concerns in Beantown, but I doubt they're panicking. And neither should the Knicks. There's plenty of time to correct what's wrong. If Leon Rose has proven anything it's that he won't hesitate to make changes if it will improve the roster. With the Knicks up against the second apron he will have to get creative though.

Bottom line, the Knicks aren't quite where they want to be, but they're getting there. Trust the process.

Knicks Finally Rounding Into Shape

Wednesday, November 13, represented a low point for the New York Knicks. They had just dropped a 124-123 decision to the lowly Chicago Bulls. Their record stood at 5-6, hardly the start they were hoping for. The doubters and the "I told you so" contingent were having a field day.

With last night's 108-85 win over the Orlando Magic, the Knicks are now 16-4 over their last twenty games. At 21-10, they are 3rd in the Eastern Conference, only two games behind the reigning NBA champ Boston Celtics.

The turnaround has been nothing short of astonishing. The starting five that looked so good on paper but struggled early, has come into its own over the last few weeks. Mikal Bridges, the player Leon Rose gave up five first round draft picks for, went from averaging 14.7 points per game in November to 22.3 points per game in December. His 41 points on Christmas Day, helped the Knicks beat the San Antonio Spurs 117-114. Karl-Anthony Towns leads the NBA in rebounding with 13.7 boards per game and is second on the team in scoring with 24.3 points per game. O.G. Anunoby, in his first full season in New York, is 5th in the league in plus / minus with a plus 256 and is contributing 16.5 points per game. The balanced attack means that Jalen Brunson no longer has to carry this team on his back like he did last season.

Defensively, the Knicks have gone from being one of the worst teams in the league to one of the best. They currently rank 7th in the NBA, allowing an average of 109.3 points per game. But in the month of December, they have allowed an average of 103.6 points per game, while scoring an average of 115.8 points per game. That's a 12.2 point differential. To put that in perspective, the Celtics had a 11.4 point differential last season on their way to a league-best 64-18 record.

Not everything has been a bed of roses for the men in orange and blue. The Knicks have had issues with slow starts all season long. In a game at Charlotte on November 29, they trailed the Hornets 23-15 after the first quarter before finally eking out a 99-98 win. Against the Detroit Pistons at the Garden on December 7, they trailed 39-23 after the first quarter; this time, however, they would not be able to overcome their deficit. 

Despite his dominance on the boards, Towns has had a propensity for getting into foul trouble of late. Over his last four games, he has picked up five personal fouls three times and fouled out once. Until Mitchell Robinson returns from the injured list - hopefully sometime in January - KAT must show more discipline. 

And the free throw shooting has been a recent cause for concern. Last night against the Magic, they shot only 70.6 percent from the line; the other night against the Toronto Raptors, they shot only 69 percent from the line. Fortunately for the Knicks, neither game was close. Against a tougher opponent, though, it could've cost them a win.

But that aside, the Knicks are finally becoming the team everyone thought they'd be before the season began. Offensively, they are spreading the ball around, making it difficult for opponents to double team any one particular player. One night it might be Brunson who's the hero; the next it might be Towns, or Bridges, or OG, or Hart. Without question, this is the most talented roster the Knicks have had since the glory days of Red Holzman in the 1970s. And once everyone is healthy, defensively, it'll be the toughest to play against since the days of Pat Riley in the 1990s. In his wildest dreams Tom Thibodeau could never have imagined coaching a group of players like this.

Go ahead, scoff if you want, but I'm more optimistic now than I was in October when I picked them to win 55 games. As of now, there are only three teams in the NBA that could beat the Knicks in a best of seven series, and one of them - the Oklahoma City Thunder - is in the Western Conference. The other two are the Cleveland Cavaliers - who nobody saw coming - and the Celtics. If Rose can somehow manage to tweak this roster a bit further, who knows, they might be the team to beat come April.

It took 54 years for the Rangers to finally end their championship drought; so far, the Knicks drought is closing in on 52 years. Whether it comes to an end this June remains to be seen.

2024-25 Knicks Preview

Teacher: "What did you do over the summer, Leon?"

Leon Rose: "I transformed the New York Knicks from playoff contender to championship contender."

Teacher: "Class dismissed."

In what will go down as one of the most active offseasons in Knicks history, Rose didn't just tweak the roster, he remade it. 

To be clear, the consensus last season was that had Julius Randle been healthy, and had OG Anunoby and Mitchell Robinson not gotten injured in the second round, New York would've beaten the Indiana Pacers and advanced to the Eastern Conference finals to face the Boston Celtics. So, basically, Rose took a long, hard look at that roster and concluded that, even healthy, the Knicks weren't good enough to contend with the Celtics.

Whether you agree with that assessment or not, it's clear Rose wasn't about to take any chances. So he got out his chisel and went to work. The acquisitions of Mikal Bridges and Karl-Anthony Townes over the summer have given Tom Thibodeau the most talented starting five he's ever had as Knicks head coach. And Rose managed to do all this while staying under the second apron.

Just compare this season's starting lineup with the one that could've started had it been healthy:

Brunson
Hart
Bridges
Anunoby
Townes

vs.

Brunson
DiVincenzo
Anunoby
Randle
Robinson

Of course those acquisitions came at a steep price. Julius Randle and Donte DiVincenzo were integral to the Knicks success last season, especially DiVo, whose last minute three pointer saved the Knicks from what surely would've been a game-two loss to the Philadelphia 76ers. Who knows what would've happened in that series without him in the lineup. But once Isaiah Hartenstein signed with the Oklahoma City Thunder, Rose had no choice but to pull the trigger on Townes, especially with Mitchell Robinson not expected to return until January.

So, now for the sixty-four thousand dollar question. Is this Knicks team better than last year's Knicks team? In a word, yes. Not only are they better, but once this group of players gets fully acclimated to each other, Knicks fans are going to love what they see on the court. The reason I say this is because when you introduce two new players like Bridges and KAT, it'll take some time for them to mesh with Thib's system. I would not be surprised at all if they got off to a 5-5 start. But once they get rolling, this team will be near the top in the Eastern Conference standings.

Indeed, the real issue I see will be the bench where Deuce McBride will handle most of the load as the 6th man. With Precious Achiuwa out for the first 2-4 weeks with a hamstring injury, it'll be up to Thibs to find a suitable replacement. Once Robinson returns, the Knicks will be set at center.

Last year, I picked the Knicks to finish 5th in the East. They wound up finishing 2nd. This year, I'm going to be a bit more bullish. Assuming no major injuries to KAT or OG - always a risk given both players history - 55 wins is not an unreasonable expectation. 

Below are my predictions for each conference, as well as my predictions for which teams will make it to the conference finals and who will win it all.

Eastern Conference:

Celtics

Knicks

Bucks
Sixers
Pacers
Cavaliers
Magic
Heat

Western Conference:

Thunder
Timberwolves
Nuggets
Mavericks
Grizzlies
Suns
Kings
Lakers

Eastern Conference finals:
Knicks over the Celtics 4-3

Western Conference finals:
Thunder over the Timberwolves -4-3

NBA Finals:
Knicks over the Thunder 4-3

2023-24 Knicks Preview

The 47 wins the New York Knicks amassed last season represented the most the franchise has had in a decade. And like that 2012-13 team which lost to the Indiana Pacers in the second round, last year's Knicks also saw their playoff aspirations come crashing down in the second round, courtesy of the Miami Heat.

Since their last championship 50 years ago, the blue and orange have made two trips to the NBA Finals: 1994 and 1999. Both bids came up short. Loyal fans are understandably hoping and praying that this is the season the drought comes to an end.

The good news: The 2023-24 Knicks should be better than the 2022-23 Knicks. Jalen Brunson - arguably last season's best free agent signing - begins his second season with the club, and Josh Hart - acquired at last year's trade deadline - begins his first full season. When they are on the floor together, they are one of the better backcourt tandems in the NBA.

The Knicks also boast one of the deepest benches in the league, led by perennial sixth man of the year award candidate Immanuel Quickley, newcomer Donte DiVincenzo and Isaiah Hartenstein. They give head coach Tom Thibodeau something few coaches have: an ability to rotate players in and out of the rotation without losing any quality on the court.

Assuming he isn't part of a package to land either Joel Embiid or Karl-Anthony Towns, RJ Barrett should continue to improve. The 6-6 guard / forward is entering his 5th season in the NBA and the Knicks are looking for him to drive to the basket more. Julius Randle is the face of the franchise and unquestionably the hardest-working player on this team, but there are limits to his game that were made abundantly clear in the Miami series last season.

And that leads us to...

The bad news: Despite being one of the toughest teams in the league to play against, the Knicks are NOT in the same class as the Milwaukee Bucks or the Boston Celtics: two teams that dramatically improved themselves during the off-season. If anything, the gap between the Knicks and the top two teams in the Eastern conference has widened. The opinion shared by most basketball writers and executives is that unless Leon Rose is willing to pull the trigger on a major trade that brings that elusive and coveted elite player to New York, the Knicks will never be anything more than just a very good team that occasionally teases its fanbase with a win now and then in the postseason, but never seriously competes for a title.

Immediately after the Bucks acquired Damian Lillard in a three-team trade that sent Jrue Holiday to the Portland Trail Blazers, the speculation was that Rose might at least kick the tires to see what it would take to bring Holiday to the east coast. Apparently, that discussion never took place. Whatever it is that the Knicks plan on doing with their eleven number one draft picks - seven of which are their own - it's clear they aren't going to be parting with any of them soon. Perhaps if the right player becomes available at the trade deadline - another Josh Hart, for example - they might give up one or two. In the meantime, Rose and James Dolan appear content with the makeup of this team.

Prediction: The Knicks will win 48 to 50 games this season and compete with the Cleveland Cavaliers and the Miami Heat for the third best record in the East, but will fall short. It won't be from lack of effort or sweat. The fact is that despite all their depth and grit, it's still front-line talent that determines how far teams go in the NBA. And the Knicks just don't have enough of it to play in the big boys sand box.

Translation? The drought will continue for at least another year.

Below are my predictions for both conferences.

Eastern Conference:

Bucks

Celtics

Cavaliers

Heat

Knicks

Sixers

Hawks

Nets

Raptors

Bulls

Wizards

Pacers

Pistons

Hornets

Magic

Western Conference:

Nuggets

Warriors

Suns

Jazz

Grizzlies

Timberwolves

Lakers

Clippers

Kings

Mavericks

Trail Blazers

Pelicans

Rockets

Spurs

Thunder

Eastern Conference finals:

Bucks over the Celtics 4-3

Western Conference finals:

Nuggets over the Suns 4-2

NBA Finals:

Bucks over the Nuggets 4-3