It was Saturday, January 27, 2024, and the New York Knicks were in the process of routing the Miami Heat at Madison Square Garden for their 6th win in a row. Julius Randle was driving to the basket when he was fouled by Jamie Jaquez with 4:27 left in the fourth quarter. The power forward tumbled to the floor, grabbing his right shoulder; the first sign that something was very wrong. You could've heard a pin drop in the building as his teammates helped him up and he raced to the locker room, hunched over in obvious pain.
The preliminary reports said that Randle had suffered a dislocated right shoulder and that he would be out approximately 2-3 weeks. As it turned out, 2-3 weeks was extremely optimistic. Randle wound up missing the rest of the season, including the playoffs. He would eventually undergo surgery.
The Knicks, even without Randle, finished with a record of 50-32, good for second place in the Eastern Conference. But depleted by injuries to other players, including O.G. Anunoby and Mitchell Robinson, they simply ran out of gas against the Indiana Pacers in the second round, and lost the series in seven games, leaving their fans to wonder what might've been.
Imagine for a moment that Tom Thibodeau had pulled Randle out of the game with 5:29 left and the score 112-96? The Heat, for all intents and purposes, looked cooked that night - pardon the pun. Of all the criticisms Thibs has faced over the years, the one that has stuck is that he tends to ride his starters like a bronco bull.
Imagine a season in which Randle is healthy. Instead of winning 50 games, the Knicks win 55, maybe more. They go into the playoffs with a starting rotation of Jalen Brunson, Josh Hart, Anunoby, Randle and Isaiah Hartenstein, with Donte DiVincenzo, Precious Achiuwa, Deuce McBride, Bojan Bogdanović and Robinson coming off the bench. They most certainly would've beaten the Pacers, and they likely would've extended the Boston Celtics to a seventh game before losing.
Of course the real question is whether, given that "what if" scenario, Leon Rose would've pulled the trigger on the KAT deal? There's no doubt that since his arrival from the Minnesota Timberwolves, Karl-Anthony Towns has been a tremendous addition to this lineup. And with Hartenstein signing with the Oklahoma City Thunder over the summer, he has given the Knicks something they haven't had since the days of Patrick Ewing. A center that can score AND rebound.
Maybe it wouldn't have made any difference at all. Maybe once Hartenstein bolted, the die was already cast. It's no secret that the Knicks had been pursuing Towns for well over a year. And with Robinson's return date still up in the air, I seriously doubt Rose would have entrusted the center position to a rotation of Randle, Achiuwa and Jericho Sims.
But given the lack of production from the bench, it's fair to say that a roster that included DiVincenzo would've been deeper, even if it was weaker overall, if that makes any sense. And let's be honest, some of the losses the Knicks have suffered this season were a direct result of a non-productive bench and an overworked starting rotation. This is unsustainable. Either Thibs starts trusting his bench more, or Rose has to make a trade to strengthen it.
With the Knicks up against the second apron, it's going to have to be the former. Fortunately, Thibs appears to have gotten the memo - finally. Against the Memphis Grizzlies, he went to his bench early and often. The result was a season-high 52 points from the bench. Of course, the Knicks blew out the Grizzlies, but the point is the starters didn't have to play 38 - 40 minutes, like they've been doing most games. Brunson actually sat out the entire fourth quarter.
The goal for the Knicks in the second half of the season should be to have the starters average no more than 34 minutes per game. To do that, the bench has to produce when they're on the court. The more they contribute, the more Thibs will trust them. But the reverse is also true: the more Thibs trust his bench, the more productive they will likely be. It cuts both ways.
For now, though, the Knicks are 31-16, pending the outcome of tonight's game against the Denver Nuggets. That's good for 5th best in the NBA, even with a low-scoring bench. When / if Robinson comes back, they will be even better and deeper.
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