And then there were four.
The conference finals are set to begin this week, and for the second time in three years the Rangers find themselves on the verge of a finals appearance, having dispatched the analytics darlings of the hockey world: the Carolina Hurricanes.
I went four for four in the last round, which brings my playoff record up to an outstanding 11-1. My lone blemish was the Winnipeg Jets. I still can't get over just how badly they were beaten by the Colorado Avalanche.
Unlike last season, there are no surprises here. No wildcards that got hot late and made a run. All four of these conference finalists are legit Stanley Cup contenders, meaning any one of them could find themselves hoisting that chalice in June. And that makes this the most unpredictable third round in years.
Like the last round, I'll start with the East and end with the West.
Eastern Conference:
New York vs. Florida: The last time these two franchises met in the postseason was 1997. It would be the last hurrah for Messier, Gretzky, Tikkanen, Leetch and Richter, and also the last time the Blueshirts would make the playoffs until 2006.
Both these teams avoided long, drawn-out series in their first two rounds. The Rangers swept the Washington Capitals and beat the Hurricanes in six, while the Panthers needed only five games to defeat the Tampa Bay Lightning and six games to send the Boston Bruins packing. That means that both teams will have plenty in the gas tank this round. And they will need it.
It's no secret that the Rangers rely on their special teams and elite goaltending. Against the Canes, New York went 5-18 on the power play and scored two short handed goals, while Carolina went 2-21. Overall in the playoffs, the Rangers power play is operating at 31.4 percent, while their penalty kill is at 89.5 percent. Both are second best among active playoff teams. The Panthers power play isn't quite as impressive, coming in at 22.0 percent. However, their penalty kill is a formidable 86.1 percent.
Both teams have elite forwards in their top six, led by Artemi Panarin for the Rangers and Sam Reinhart for the Panthers, and depth throughout the lineup, though Florida's third line is slightly better than New York's. Both teams have solid defensive pairings, though the Panthers D is slightly bigger and more physical, Jacob Trouba notwithstanding. The key for the Rangers will be Adam Fox. The former Norris Trophy winner has only four assists in the playoffs. He needs to step it up in this series.
As in the last round, goaltending will be crucial for New York. Igor Shesterkin outperformed Freddie Andersen, who as it turned out, didn't quite live up to his billing. The Rangers net minder has a 2.40 goals against average and a .923 save percentage in ten games. His opponent, Sergei Bobrovsky, has a 2.37 goals against average and a .902 save percentage in eleven games.
Unlike the Hurricanes, the Panthers just don't throw a ton of shots at the net in an attempt to create "chaos." They excel at driving to the net and creating high-danger scoring chances. It is imperative that the Rangers stay disciplined with their puck management and do their best to keep the area in front of their net as clear as possible. The more pucks Igor sees, the more saves he will be able to make. The Panthers led the league during the regular season in being penalized, mostly due to their physical style of play. If that trend continues in this series, the Rangers must make them pay.
Interesting tidbit: Paul Maurice and Peter Laviolette share something in common. They both coached the Hurricanes. Maurice was replaced by Laviolette in '04. Then in '08, Laviolette was replaced by Maurice. Both men left notes for each other.
Last year, the Panthers made it all the way to the Stanley Cup Finals before losing to the Vegas Golden Knights. The Rangers, after advancing to the Eastern Conference Finals the year before, were eliminated in the first round by the New Jersey Devils. Both teams have something to prove to themselves and to their respective fan bases. This should be one helluva series. Rangers in seven.
Western Conference:
Dallas vs. Edmonton: Last season, the Stars lost to the Golden Knights in the Western Conference Finals. This season, they knocked off Vegas in the first round and now find themselves up against the NHL's perennial bridesmaids. The Oilers, led by Connor McDavid, have been knocking on Lord Stanley's door for the last four years but have never made it passed the conference finals. This season under Kris Knoblauch, they've learned how to take care of their own end. The result is an offense that can still light up the sky combined with a defense that can shut down opponents.
The Stars have the edge in depth - they can roll four lines - and in goal. But the Oilers have the edge on special teams where their 37.5 percent power play will wreak havoc on a Stars penalty kill unit that is a woeful 69.2 percent. It should be noted that the Colorado Avalanche also had a very potent power play - 36.7 percent - yet still lost to the Stars.
Two years ago, I picked the Oilers over the Avs in six. So what happened? The Avs swept the Oilers. This time around, I'm going with the better all-around team. Stars in six.
Just in case the Rangers don't advance, this is my prediction for the Stanley Cup Finals:
Panthers over the Stars 4-3.
Conn-Smythe Trophy: Matthew Tkachuk
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