Thursday, May 30, 2024
When It Rains, It Pours
Monday, May 27, 2024
The Sunshine Snatch
Saturday, May 25, 2024
Goody Enough
For sixty minutes, the New York Rangers threw everything they had at the Florida Panthers. They fought tooth and nail for every inch of ice. They scraped, they clawed, they hit and they got hit. They were twice the team they were in game one. And all it got them was a 1-1 tie going into overtime. The Panthers, having won game one at the Garden 3-0, and with it home ice, were playing with house money. A win would give them a stranglehold on the series going back to their home arena. The Rangers were looking at an almost impossible task, one that only one team since 1945 had accomplished: winning a best of seven conference or league final series after dropping the first two games at home.
Barclay Goodrow's snapshot from the slot at 14:01 of OT didn't just win the game for the Rangers, it saved their season. If ever there was a must win situation, last night was it. So now the Presidents' Trophy winners get an opportunity to recapture home ice with a split in Sunrise, Florida. The hockey gods were indeed merciful, for a change.
But while Goodrow's teammates celebrated their good fortune, there is still much work that needs to be done if this team is to advance to the finals for the first time since 2014, and only the second time since their Cup year of 1994. For starters, the special teams have been anything but special of late. After going 11-25 on the power play in their first six postseason games, the Rangers have gone 1-16 over their last six, including 0-4 last night. The Rangers record over those first six games was 6-0; over the last six, it's 3-3.
The concern is palpable. Going into this series with the Panthers, the Rangers had two advantages going for them: their goaltending and their power play. Well, Igor Shesterkin has held up his end of the bargain. The former Vezina Trophy winner has gone toe to toe with Sergei Bobrovsky. Not counting the own goal Alexis Lafreniere deflected past him in game one, Shesterkin has stopped 51 of 53 shots on goal for a .962 save percentage through two games. That's the sort of brilliance that can earn a player the Conn-Smythe Award.
But no matter how brilliant Igor may be, he cannot drag this team across the finish line all by himself. He needs help. Put succinctly, there is no pathway to a Stanley Cup for the Rangers that doesn't include a productive power play. None. Their 5v5 play simply isn't good enough. During the regular season, New York had a GF% of 50.15 at 5v5. By contrast, Florida was 56.57. The fact is the Rangers got lucky last night. They actually outscored the Panthers 2-0 at even strength. Depending on that luck to continue would be foolhardy.
The problem is a familiar one. For all the elite talent on this team, the Rangers power play remains as predictable as dirt. They tried mixing it up a bit against the Washington Capitals and Carolina Hurricanes, and, eureka, it worked. But then like a drunk on a bender, the old habits returned. Since game three of the Canes series, the Blueshirts have stubbornly resisted even tweaking their power play. The results - one power play goal in the last six games - speak for themselves. The Panthers know exactly what's coming and they are prepared for it. In the first two games of this series, the Rangers have yet to register a single high-danger scoring chance with the man advantage. If Peter Laviolette and his staff don't rectify this problem soon, game five will be the last home game of the season for this team.
But even if they manage to fix the power play, there's one more nagging issue that besets them. The Rangers continue to have trouble exiting the defensive zone. While not as proficient as game one, Florida was still able to pin New York in its own end most of the game. The lack of clean exits is bound to take its toll as the series progresses, especially the way the Panthers take the body. The Rangers must find a way to get the puck into the neutral zone that doesn't involve multiple hits along the boards. Laviolette was hired because of his ability to make adjustments on the fly. Now would be a good time to make at least two of them.
Game three is Sunday afternoon. The Rangers are tied with the Panthers. They have Barclay Goodrow to thank for that.
Thursday, May 23, 2024
Panthers Send Rangers a Wakeup Call
Tuesday, May 21, 2024
NHL Playoff Preview (Round Three)
And then there were four.
The conference finals are set to begin this week, and for the second time in three years the Rangers find themselves on the verge of a finals appearance, having dispatched the analytics darlings of the hockey world: the Carolina Hurricanes.
I went four for four in the last round, which brings my playoff record up to an outstanding 11-1. My lone blemish was the Winnipeg Jets. I still can't get over just how badly they were beaten by the Colorado Avalanche.
Unlike last season, there are no surprises here. No wildcards that got hot late and made a run. All four of these conference finalists are legit Stanley Cup contenders, meaning any one of them could find themselves hoisting that chalice in June. And that makes this the most unpredictable third round in years.
Like the last round, I'll start with the East and end with the West.
Eastern Conference:
New York vs. Florida: The last time these two franchises met in the postseason was 1997. It would be the last hurrah for Messier, Gretzky, Tikkanen, Leetch and Richter, and also the last time the Blueshirts would make the playoffs until 2006.
Both these teams avoided long, drawn-out series in their first two rounds. The Rangers swept the Washington Capitals and beat the Hurricanes in six, while the Panthers needed only five games to defeat the Tampa Bay Lightning and six games to send the Boston Bruins packing. That means that both teams will have plenty in the gas tank this round. And they will need it.
It's no secret that the Rangers rely on their special teams and elite goaltending. Against the Canes, New York went 5-18 on the power play and scored two short handed goals, while Carolina went 2-21. Overall in the playoffs, the Rangers power play is operating at 31.4 percent, while their penalty kill is at 89.5 percent. Both are second best among active playoff teams. The Panthers power play isn't quite as impressive, coming in at 22.0 percent. However, their penalty kill is a formidable 86.1 percent.
Both teams have elite forwards in their top six, led by Artemi Panarin for the Rangers and Sam Reinhart for the Panthers, and depth throughout the lineup, though Florida's third line is slightly better than New York's. Both teams have solid defensive pairings, though the Panthers D is slightly bigger and more physical, Jacob Trouba notwithstanding. The key for the Rangers will be Adam Fox. The former Norris Trophy winner has only four assists in the playoffs. He needs to step it up in this series.
As in the last round, goaltending will be crucial for New York. Igor Shesterkin outperformed Freddie Andersen, who as it turned out, didn't quite live up to his billing. The Rangers net minder has a 2.40 goals against average and a .923 save percentage in ten games. His opponent, Sergei Bobrovsky, has a 2.37 goals against average and a .902 save percentage in eleven games.
Unlike the Hurricanes, the Panthers just don't throw a ton of shots at the net in an attempt to create "chaos." They excel at driving to the net and creating high-danger scoring chances. It is imperative that the Rangers stay disciplined with their puck management and do their best to keep the area in front of their net as clear as possible. The more pucks Igor sees, the more saves he will be able to make. The Panthers led the league during the regular season in being penalized, mostly due to their physical style of play. If that trend continues in this series, the Rangers must make them pay.
Interesting tidbit: Paul Maurice and Peter Laviolette share something in common. They both coached the Hurricanes. Maurice was replaced by Laviolette in '04. Then in '08, Laviolette was replaced by Maurice. Both men left notes for each other.
Last year, the Panthers made it all the way to the Stanley Cup Finals before losing to the Vegas Golden Knights. The Rangers, after advancing to the Eastern Conference Finals the year before, were eliminated in the first round by the New Jersey Devils. Both teams have something to prove to themselves and to their respective fan bases. This should be one helluva series. Rangers in seven.
Western Conference:
Dallas vs. Edmonton: Last season, the Stars lost to the Golden Knights in the Western Conference Finals. This season, they knocked off Vegas in the first round and now find themselves up against the NHL's perennial bridesmaids. The Oilers, led by Connor McDavid, have been knocking on Lord Stanley's door for the last four years but have never made it passed the conference finals. This season under Kris Knoblauch, they've learned how to take care of their own end. The result is an offense that can still light up the sky combined with a defense that can shut down opponents.
The Stars have the edge in depth - they can roll four lines - and in goal. But the Oilers have the edge on special teams where their 37.5 percent power play will wreak havoc on a Stars penalty kill unit that is a woeful 69.2 percent. It should be noted that the Colorado Avalanche also had a very potent power play - 36.7 percent - yet still lost to the Stars.
Two years ago, I picked the Oilers over the Avs in six. So what happened? The Avs swept the Oilers. This time around, I'm going with the better all-around team. Stars in six.
Just in case the Rangers don't advance, this is my prediction for the Stanley Cup Finals:
Panthers over the Stars 4-3.
Conn-Smythe Trophy: Matthew Tkachuk
Monday, May 20, 2024
The Future Looks Bright for the Knicks
In the end, time was never on the New York Knicks side. Once they blew that nine point, fourth-quarter lead in game three and lost to the Indiana Pacers, this series became a war of attrition. And wars of attrition never end well for the team that is shorthanded. Apart from game five, the Pacers were in total control the rest of the way. They won every matchup on both ends of the court. Not even the raucous Garden crowd could save their beloved team.
The list of the Knicks walking wounded could fill an NBA roster. Julius Randle (shoulder), Mitchell Robinson (ankle), OG Anunoby (hamstring), Bojan Bogdanovic (foot), Josh Hart (abdomen), and, yes, even their MVP, Jalen Brunson (hand). You can't keep saying "next man up" once you've run out of men. Brunson was the last straw. Once he went down, Tom Thibodeau was basically left with a five-man rotation. In other words, no bench.
It sucks, I know, that the season had to end this way, because let's be honest: if the above players had been healthy and available in this series, the Knicks would've won in five. You know; I know it; even Indiana knows it. But that doesn't change the facts on the ground. Injuries are a part of the game and always will be. Thibodeau, for his part, didn't blame his team's loss on injuries. Instead, he congratulated the Pacers and looked forward to what lies ahead for this team. And what lies ahead is very promising.
Think about it: the Knicks went 12-2 in the month of January with a roster that included Isaiah Hartenstein, Randle, Anunoby, Donte DiVincenzo, Hart, Precious Achiuwa and Deuce McBride. They beat teams like the Denver Nuggets, the Minnesota Timberwolves, the Philadelphia 76ers (with a healthy Joel Embiid) and the Miami Heat with that roster. Fully healthy, this is a team that can compete for the number one seed in the Eastern Conference. And that's before Leon Rose uses one or more of his first round draft picks to land another scorer, which you gotta believe he will spend the bulk of the summer doing.
But who to get? There's Dejounte Murray. The shooting guard would make the ideal two. A backcourt of Brunson and Murray would be formidable. Atlanta will ask for the proverbial king's ransom for him. Mikal Bridges is another intriguing possibility. Though technically more a small forward than a guard, he did play with Brunson and Hart at Villanova, so there's a history between the three. Like Murray, he will not come cheap. Assuming the Brooklyn Nets are willing to part with their number one star, you'd have to think they'd be reluctant to trade him to a cross-town rival.
Then there are the usual suspects: Devin Booker, Kevin Durant and Paul George. I'd pass on all three, especially Durant, who when he had the chance to sign with New York five years ago, chose Brooklyn instead because he thought the former was "not cool" to play for. Fuck him. As for Booker and George, neither has done much for their respective teams. The last thing Rose needs is to replicate his predecessors mistakes by bringing in high-priced mercenaries who have historically underperformed in the playoffs. The reason Knicks fans have fallen in love with this team is because they work their butts off. Whether they're up by ten or down by ten, they never stop hustling. Can you imagine KD running up and down the court the way Josh Hart does? Neither can I.
Which brings me to an issue that was brought up by Mike Greenberg on ESPN. Greenberg suggested that perhaps the reason the Knicks sustained so many injuries was because of the system Thibodeau employs. Let me put this to bed right now. Yes, Thibs demands a lot of his players; yes, it can take its toll. But, no, it had absolutely nothing to do with the injuries. Robinson broke his ankle against the Boston Celtics in December and then re-injured it because of a dirty play by Embiid in the Sixers series; Randle dislocated his right shoulder driving to the basket against the Miami Heat; Anunoby had bone spurs that required surgery and then pulled his hamstring reaching for an errant pass in the Pacers series; Bogdanovic stepped on an opposing players foot in the Sixers series; and Hart pulled an abdominal muscle reaching for a rebound in game six of the Pacers series. Every one of these injuries could just as well have occurred with a different coach employing a different coaching style.
And here's another bogus claim that needs to be put out of its misery. Thibs does not bury players on the bench; they bury themselves. Alec Burks was given multiple opportunities to earn playing time; he didn't capitalize on them. Yes, it was nice to see him contribute some in the playoffs, but for anybody who was watching this team during the regular season, the last player they wanted to see on the court was Burks. He was, for all intents and purposes, useless. Worse than that, he was a negative, meaning he cost his team valuable points.
But all that aside, I'm very bullish on the Knicks. It's been a very long time since I've been able to say that about this franchise; the 1990s, in fact. With Rose and Thibs at the helm, they are in good hands.
The future looks bright for the men in orange and white.
Hey, that rhymes.
Friday, May 17, 2024
Kreider and Shesterkin Save the Rangers Bacon
It was May 25, 1994, and the New York Rangers were trailing their rivals, the New Jersey Devils 2-0 midway through the second period of game six of the Eastern Conference Finals. The only reason it was 2-0 and not 5-0 was because of Mike Richter. He practically stood on his head doing his best to keep his team within striking distance. A loss would've ended the Blueshirts season, and 54 years would've become 55 and counting. Those "Nineteen Forty" chants would've gone on, perhaps forever.
That's when Mark Messier took over. He fed a drop pass to Alex Kovalev in the right face-off circle, and the winger beat Martin Brodeur with a slap shot to cut the Devils lead in half. And then the Captain had the third period of a lifetime, scoring a natural hat trick to propel his team to victory. Two days later, Stephane Matteau completed the series comeback with a double overtime goal. On June 14, the Rangers would finally exorcize their demons and capture the Stanley Cup.
Last night, the Rangers found themselves trailing by two goals entering the third period of a game six. Though the circumstances were different - this Rangers team was ahead of the Carolina Hurricanes instead of behind - the ramifications were almost as dire. New York had jumped out to a 3-0 series lead and the Hurricanes were now twenty minutes away from forcing a game seven at Madison Square Garden. There was a very real chance that the Rangers would become only the fifth team in NHL history to lose a series after leading 3-0.
Igor Shesterkin, like Richter 30 years earlier, had done everything possible to give his team a chance at avoiding what may well have been the worst collapse in franchise history. He made save after save and was even aided by several posts that the Canes hit. But to overcome the deficit, the Rangers needed someone else to step up and take the reigns.
Enter Chris Kreider. The twelve-year veteran scored three consecutive goals to stun the crowd in Raleigh. An empty netter by Barclay Goodrow was the icing on the cake. The Rangers won the game 5-3 and took the series 4-2. For the second time in three years, New York has advanced to the Eastern Conference Finals where they await the winner of the Florida / Boston series.
There's no easy way to put this. The Rangers were very fortunate. They had played five consecutive periods of poor hockey in which they were outscored 7-2. Their power play had gone ice cold. Had Freddie Andersen not gifted them with two questionable goals - the first to Artemi Panarin in game one; the second to Kreider in game six, the final outcome might have gone the other way. For those who still insist that goaltending is overrated, hopefully this series will serve as a wakeup call. From Ken Dryden to Andrei Vasilevskiy, elite goalies have always played an integral role in their teams Stanley Cup championships. Maybe instead of trading for Jake Guentzel, Don Waddell should've traded for someone like Jordan Binnington or Jacob Markstrom. Either would've done a much better job in net than Andersen. The fact is, had the Hurricanes gotten better goaltending in last year's playoffs against the Panthers, there's no way in hell they would've been swept.
But that's Carolina's problem, isn't it? As for the Rangers, they will have their work cut out for them against Florida, assuming Florida wraps up its series tonight in Boston. Unlike the Canes, the team formerly known as the Puddy Tats doesn't take a bunch of shots from the perimeter in the hopes of causing "chaos" in front of the net. They drive to the net and make life a living hell for opposing goaltenders. The only reason the Bruins forced a game six is because Jeremy Swayman did his best Patrick Roy impersonation. I can assure you if Sam Reinhart has the puck on his stick 20 feet out from Shesterkin, he's not going to hit the post. The Panthers have no discernible weaknesses. If the Rangers struggle at all in this series, they will lose. Period.
But for now they can relax and celebrate. They have advanced to the NHL's version of the Final Four. The last time a Presidents' Trophy winner made it this far was 2015. That team, oddly enough, was the Rangers.
And our hero of the day, Chris Kreider, was a member of that team.
Wednesday, May 15, 2024
Rangers Phone It In
"They wanted it more." - Vincent Trocheck
I'll say this for Trocheck, he's honest.
With a chance to close out their series with the Carolina Hurricanes in front of their loyal fans, the New York Rangers had one of their worst performances of the season. How bad was this game? According to CSA Hockey, which is owned and operated by Stephen Valiquette, they had only one high danger scoring chance to the Hurricanes 10 the entire game.* And that one HD scoring chance was Jacob Trouba's shorthanded goal in the second period, which gave the Blueshirts a 1-0 lead that they took into the third period. Think about it: as bad as they played, they were still 20 minutes away from advancing to the Eastern Conference Finals.
It is incomprehensible and indefensible that this team was not prepared to play a Carolina team that was facing elimination. Even during their swoon in January, the Rangers mustered better offensive efforts. Frankly, I'm at a loss to explain it. And now this team, which had a commanding 3-0 series lead, heads back to Raleigh, clinging to 3-2 lead, but facing a Hurricanes team that has all the momentum on its side.
It is an axiom in sports that when you have your opponent pinned, you don't let him off the mat. Perhaps it was unrealistic to believe that the Rangers were going to sweep a Hurricanes team that finished only three points behind them during the regular season. And given how tight this series had been through the first three games, two of which went to OT, the law of averages dictated that the Canes were due for a win.
But what happened at the Garden Monday night had nothing to do with the law of averages. This loss was not inevitable; in fact, it was completely preventable. Considering how the Rangers imploded last season against the New Jersey Devils, you'd think every player in that locker room would be cognizant of that fact before the game. You'd think that, but you'd be wrong.
Alarm bells should be going off all over this team. From their slow starts, to their suddenly ice-cold power play, which is now 0 for its last 8 after starting the series 4 for 9, the sense of urgency is simply not there. About the only thing they're excelling at is their penalty kill, which is 19-20 with two short-handed goals in this series. Overall in the playoffs, the Rangers penalty kill is a league-best 91.9 percent.
The Rangers will have to step up their intensity if they expect to put away Carolina. What worked in games one, two and three did not work in games four and five, and it won't work in game six either. Of all the teams in the playoffs, the Rangers should know that most of all. Two years ago, they were faced with no less than six elimination games and they went 5-1 in those games. So far this postseason, the Hurricanes are 2-0 facing elimination; it is imperative that they not get to 3-0 after Thursday night.
If the Rangers need a little inspiration, they need look no further than the other tenant that resides at MSG. After getting embarrassed by the Indiana Pacers Sunday afternoon, the New York Knicks took to the court Tuesday night and, in front of their adoring fans, returned the favor. They outscored the Pacers in every quarter and out rebounded them 53-29, en-route to a 121-91 rout. Now that's what I call resiliency; that's how you take care of business. If the Rangers were smart, they were watching that game and hopefully took some notes.
Fourteen years ago yesterday, the Philadelphia Flyers, down 0-3 to the Boston Bruins, successfully completed a four-game series comeback. They're one of only four teams in NHL history to achieve such a feat. The coach of that Flyers team was Peter Laviolette. If the Rangers don't wake up, Laviolette will have the distinction of being the only head coach to be on both sides of an 0-3 comeback.
And that's a piece of history neither this coach nor this team should want any part of.
* According to Valiquette, this was just the 9th time since 2016 that the Rangers had been limited to one or fewer HD scoring chances in a game.
Monday, May 13, 2024
Knicks Running on Fumes in Indiana
The final outcome in game four of Eastern Conference semifinals was never in doubt. The Indiana Pacers routed the New York Knicks 121-89. They led by 20 after one, 28 at the half, 38 after three, and 42 early in the 4th quarter. The Knicks led once in this game: 2-0 in the opening minute. Here's all you needed to know about how bad things went for the Knicks: Alec Burks was their leading scorer at halftime with 11 points. The Nova triplets? They finished a combined 1-13 from downtown.
The series is now tied at two, with game five at the Garden Tuesday night. Just based on what we saw on Sunday, it could well be the last home game for the Knicks. Seriously, you'd have to be the world's most incurable optimist to believe this team will be able to summon the energy needed to extend this series to seven games, much less advance to the conference finals. Let's face it: they looked gassed out there against a healthier and much deeper Indiana team.
You could see this series starting to slip away in the 4th quarter of game three. The Knicks led 90-85 after the 3rd quarter, and 98-89 with 9:46 to go in the 4th. They would make only two more jumps shots the rest of the way, getting outscored 26-16 in the quarter and losing 111-106. For only the second time in these playoffs, the Knicks failed to close out a game in which they led in the 4th quarter. Think about that. A team that, sans game five of the Sixers series, has owned the 4th quarter, got owned.
And now this incredibly resilient team, which has lost half its roster and more closely resembles a walking MASH unit, has to pull a proverbial rabbit out of the hat in order to keep their postseason dreams alive. And just to be clear, if the Knicks lose game five, there will be no game seven. The Pacers will close it out in six.
This wasn't the way it was drawn up. After the trade with Toronto, the Knicks had a front court of Isaiah Hartenstein, Julius Randle and OG Anunoby, a back court of Jalen Brunson and Donte DiVencenzo, and a bench that included Josh Hart, Precious Achiuwa and Deuce McBride. Then Randle went down, followed by Anunoby. Leon Rose added two more pieces to the puzzle in Burks and Bojan Bogdanovic with the hope that Randle, Anunoby and maybe even Mitchell Robinson would return in time for the playoffs. On paper, this had the makings of a genuine championship contender; at the very least a conference finalist.
But Randle never did come back; and while Anunoby did, his injury in game two of the Pacers series, coupled with the injuries to Robinson and Bogdanovic in the Sixers series, has all but crippled this team. Coach Tom Thibodeau, facing a depleted bench, has been forced to play his starters 45 plus minutes per game. The wear and tear is finally taking its toll. All the perspiration in the world can't overcome exhaustion; and right now the Knicks look exhausted. To quote a passage out of the Bible, the spirit is willing but the flesh is weak.
The good news? Regardless of what happens in this series, the future of this franchise looks very promising. Randle will be back, as will Anunoby and Robinson. Rose still has all his first round draft picks that he can use to land a proven scorer who can be the third option - perhaps even the second option - to Brunson and Randle. That this team managed to win 50 games this season mostly on spit and polish is a testament to its work ethic. Fully healthy, they could easily win 55 to 60 games next season.
But for now they still have to contend with the Pacers for at least two more games. The Garden faithful will be in their corner Tuesday night, as they have pretty much all season.
Will it be enough? We shall see.
Thursday, May 9, 2024
Are the Rangers and Knicks Bound for Destiny?
Monday, May 6, 2024
Knicks Playoff Preview (Round Two)
Having disposed of the hobbled Philadelphia 76ers in six games, the New York Knicks face the fully healthy and quite deep Indiana Pacers. The Pacers beat a Milwaukee Bucks team that had to deal with injuries to Giannis Antetokoumpo and Damian Lillard in six games. Clearly, both teams benefited from their opponents inability to be at full strength.
In this series, the only injured player of consequence is Julius Randle, who went down with a dislocated right shoulder at the end of January and is out for the playoffs. Mitchell Robinson is still hampered by his surgically repaired ankle, but will be able to play. The Pacers appear fully healthy.
To say these teams have a history would be putting it mildly. Prior to this series, they've met a total of seven times in the playoffs with Indiana holding a 4-3 edge. The two most notable meetings were in 1995, where Reggie Miller's 8 points in 8.9 seconds in game one of the Eastern Conference semifinals helped propel the Pacers to a series win; and in 1999, where Larry Johnson's last-second four-point play won game three of the ECF and helped get the Knicks to what would be their last trip to the finals.
The three keys to the Knicks winning this series are as follows:
1. Play good defense. During the regular season, the Pacers went 2-1 against the Knicks. In their two losses, New York allowed Indiana to score 125 and 140 points; in their one win, New York held Indiana to just 105 points. For the Knicks to prevail, they cannot get into a track meet with the Pacers. They must play a half-court offense and slow down the tempo.
2. Control the boards. The Knicks are one of the best rebounding teams in the NBA; the Pacers are one of the worst. Isaiah Hartenstein, Robinson, OG Anunoby and Josh Hart, who Tom Thibodeau uses at the 4 in place of the injured Randle, averaged 6.5, 7.8, 6.8 and 12.3 rebounds respectively against the Sixers. They must continue their domination on the glass against Indiana.
3. Thibs must use his bench more. There's no way to sugar coat this. Indiana has a deep bench and they utilized it quite effectively against Milwaukee. Without Bojan Bogdanovic, Thibodeau basically went with a seven-man rotation. The exception was game four when Hartenstein got into foul trouble and Thibs was forced to use Precious Achiuwa in the 4th quarter. What that means is that Jalen Brunson, Donte DiVencenzo and Hart are all playing more than 40 minutes per game. That is unsustainable, especially against a team as athletic as the Pacers. Like it not, Thibs must use Achuwa and Deuce McBride more; and maybe even Alec Burks, even if it's only for a couple of minutes.
If the Knicks can contain the Pacers high-powered offense, if they can control the boards, and if Thibs plays his bench more, the Knicks should move on to the Eastern Conference Finals. However, if the Pacers are able to set the tempo and Thibs remains stubborn, the Pacers will be victorious. I'm going with the former here. Knicks in seven.
Here are my predictions for the rest of the second round:
Eastern Conference:
Boston over Cleveland in six. Cavs fans were chanting "We want Boston" in their series clincher against the Orlando Magic. The basketball gods heard them.
Western Conference:
Denver over Minnesota in seven. This presupposes Jamal Murray is relatively healthy. If he's not, the Timberwolves will take the series in six.
Oklahoma City over Dallas in seven. It is criminal the way a majority of the media in this sport ignored what the Thunder have quietly accomplished this season. They're about to get an education.
Like I wrote in my last preview, if the Knicks move on, I'll preview the next round. If not, here are the two teams I think will meet in the NBA Finals.
Boston over Denver in seven. Kristaps Porziņģis returns and gets his ring.
Sunday, May 5, 2024
NHL Playoff Preview (Round Two)
One round is in the books - almost. Three to go.
Round two begins Sunday afternoon with the New York Rangers hosting the Carolina Hurricanes at Madison Square Garden. We'll have to wait until later tonight to find out who gets the "pleasure" of playing the Colorado Avalanche: the Vegas Golden Knights or the Dallas Stars. The only surprise so far was how badly the Winnipeg Jets played. The number one defense in the NHL during the regular season got lit up like a Christmas tree by the Avs, and the likely Vezina trophy winner Connor Hellebuyck surrendered a total of 24 goals on 177 shots over five games for a save percentage of .870.
Just like I did in the last round, I will begin my preview of round two with the Rangers and work my way down by conference. I do this in fun, so no wagering.
Eastern Conference:
New York vs. Carolina: For the third time in four years, these two teams will meet in the postseason. The Hurricanes beat the Rangers 3-0 in the 2020 Qualifying Round; the Blueshirts returned the favor two years laster, winning 4-3 in the Eastern Conference semifinals. This will be the first time since round one in '20 that Carolina won't have home ice in a playoff series.
Both teams disposed of their first round "opponents" in short order: the Rangers in four; the Hurricanes in five. Both teams are genuine Cup contenders with elite-level talent that are capable of going all the way. Both are well coached and both have excellent special teams. Ten different players scored for the Rangers against the Caps, while twelve different players scored for the Canes against the Isles, so clearly depth is not an issue for either team.
Since their last playoff meeting, the Rangers and Hurricanes have made changes to their rosters; the former by signing center Vincent Trocheck, the latter by acquiring winger Jake Guentzel at the trade deadline. Both players have improved their respective teams. If Filip Chytil, who's been out with a concussion since November, plays, that will give the Blueshirts a third scoring line.
Two years ago, the Rangers had a huge advantage in net. That won't be the case this time around. While Igor Shesterkin is still the better goalie, Frederik Andersen, who was out due to injury in '22, narrows the gap significantly for the Canes. There'll be no blowouts in this series. Expect a lot of 2-1 and 3-2 games with both teams winning at least one game in the other's arena. Look for Peter Laviolette to use the Alex Wennberg line on the Sebastian Aho line.
This series will go the distance. In fact, I wouldn't be surprised if it takes overtime to decide the winner. Rangers in seven.
Florida vs. Boston: For those assuming the winner of the Rangers / Hurricanes series is a lock for the finals, I would advise them to cool their jets. Florida was quite impressive in their five-game takedown of the Tampa Bay Lightning. There isn't a weakness on this Panthers team. They have depth throughout their lineup and elite goaltending. Meanwhile, the Bruins needed a full seven games to defeat a Toronto Maple Leafs team that was without Auston Matthews for two of those games. I doubt the Puddy Tats will need that many to do the same to them. Panthers in five.
Western Conference:
Dallas or Vegas vs. Colorado: The Avalanche went through the Winnipeg Jets like shit through a goose. They won't be so fortunate against either the Stars or the Golden Knights, both of whom are putting on a clinic for how hockey is supposed to be played. That's because both teams are considerably deeper and faster than the Jets and can go toe to toe with the Avs. Stars or Golden Knights in seven.
Vancouver vs. Edmonton: In some respects this might be the most intriguing series of the playoffs. The Canucks have made several trips to the finals, but have never won the Cup. The Oilers haven't won it since the glory days of Gretzky and Messier, but have come up short over the last few years. Rick Tocchet might win the Jack Adams award but it's Kris Knoblauch who's gotten Connor McDavid and Co. to commit to playing defense. If Thatcher Demko can't go for Vancouver, this could get ugly. Oilers in six.
In the event the Rangers don't advance, these are my predictions for the balance of the playoffs and year-end awards:
Playoffs:
Eastern Conference Finals: Panthers over Hurricanes 4-2
Western Conference Finals: Stars or Golden Knights over Oilers 4-3
Stanley Cup Finals: Panthers over Stars or Golden Knights 4-3
Conn-Smythe Trophy: Matthew Tkachuk
Year-end Awards:
Hart Trophy: Nathan MacKinnonJack Adams Award: Rick Tocchet
Saturday, May 4, 2024
Knicks Avoid the Unthinkable
This time around, the New York Knicks didn't snatch defeat from the jaws of victory. This time around, they took care of business. They made their last four free throws; they fouled when they were supposed to; and they didn't when they weren't. In a game that saw them jump out to a 33-11 first quarter lead and trail 71-61 midway through the 3rd, the Knicks played about as perfect a fourth quarter as they've played all season long and, as a result, they beat the Philadelphia 76ers 118-115 Thursday night to take the series four games to two.
Make no mistake about it, this was a must win for New York. Yes, they still had a game seven at the Garden to fall back on. But let's be honest: after suffering a crushing last minute loss in game five, a loss in game six would've shifted all the momentum of this series to the Sixers. And there's no way in hell the Knicks were going to take that chance.
On a night when their bench was outscored by the Sixers bench 42-5, the starters led the way. Jalen Brunson had 41 points and 12 assists; Donte DiVencenzo, who'd been missing in action since game two, had his best game of the series with 23 points and seven assists; Josh Hart led all players with 14 rebounds and drilled a critical three pointer with 25 seconds left to put the Knicks ahead for good; and OG Anunoby contributed with 19 points to go along with nine boards.
But Brunson was the star of the show; indeed the entire series. The Knicks MVP became the first player since Oscar Robertson in 1973 to record 35 or more points and 10 or more assists three times in a best of seven series. When you think about how many great players the NBA has had over the years - Julius Irving, Magic Johnson, Larry Bird, Michael Jordan, Tim Duncan, Kobe Bryant, LeBron James, Steph Curry - that Brunson is the only one to tie Robertson's record is quite a feat. He continues to confound his skeptics while dazzling his fans.
To truly appreciate what Brunson has meant to this Knicks team just consider that before Julius Randle went down at the end of January, Brunson was averaging 26.8 points and 6.5 assists per game. Since then, he's averaged 31.6 points and 7.1 assists per game. If you prorate that over an entire year, that would make Brunson second in the NBA scoring, ahead of Giannis Antetokounmpo, and 10th in assists, ahead of Damian Lillard, you know, the guy Stephen A. Smith wanted the Knicks to get instead of Brunson. And to think there were those who ripped Leon Rose for overpaying for this guy. That $104 million contract now looks like the steal of the decade.
So now this incredibly resilient team, with its MVP and depleted bench, gets a few days off to prepare for the Indiana Pacers on Monday. The last time these two teams met was 2013 in the second round. The Pacers won that series 4-2. The Knicks would like nothing more than to avenge that loss.
It won't be easy. The Pacers had the number one offense in the NBA during the regular season, averaging 123.3 points per game. And unlike the Sixers, they have a bench that can score, led by former Knick Obi Toppin. The good news for New York is that while Indiana can score, they also had the fourth worst defense in the league, surrendering an average of 120.2 points per game. Compare to the Pacers, the Sixers are practically the 1963-64 Boston Celtics!
My second round preview will be forthcoming. Suffice to say this will be tough test for the Knicks; even tougher than the Sixers. Tom Thibodeau has his work cut out for him.