We Need to Talk About Igor Shesterkin

As a rule, I'm not one to overreact. Being in sales for a quarter century has taught me many things. Chief among them is that things are never as bad or as good as they seem. The truth lies somewhere in between.

Of course, in the Twitterverse, overreaction isn't just par for the course, it's a prerequisite for membership. Seriously, if I had a dollar for every time a Rangers fan lost his shit over Gerard Gallant juggling his lines, or Jacob Trouba taking a stupid penalty, or Artemi Panarin having another one of his ill-advised cross-ice passes intercepted, my wife and I would have enough money for a one-week stay at the Halekulani in Waikiki. Referring to Twitter as a social media platform is the very definition of an oxymoron.

That being said, we need to talk about Igor Shesterkin. Last season's Vezina trophy winner is clearly in a slump. His save percentage in February is an ominous .865. To put that in perspective, in all of 2022-23, the lowest save percentage he posted was .916 in March. In fact, if we're truly being honest here, Igor is having an off year compared to what he did last season. Let's break it down, shall we?

Season 2021-22 2022-23 Mo. GAA / SV % GAA / SV % Oct   1.70 / .947 2.55 / .913 Nov 2.67 / .920 2.60 / .912 Dec 2.11 / .929 2.14 / .927 Jan 1.86 / .947 2.62 / .916 Feb 1.31 / .959 3.54 / .865 Mar 2.68 / .916 Apr 1.90 / .930 Average 2.07 / .935 2.59 / .912

The numbers don't lie. As I wrote back in November, Shesterkin "just hasn't lived up to his billing." The incredible saves he was famous for making last season have now become the questionable goals he's allowing this season. Monday night against the Winnipeg Jets he was outclassed by Connor Hellebuyck, who turned away 50 of 51 shots, while Igor gave up four goals on only 21 shots, three of which should've been stopped. Against the Edmonton Oilers, he surrendered four first-period goals. It was obvious he was having trouble picking up the puck. The Rangers eventually came from behind to win the game in the shootout. And against the Vancouver Canucks, he got beat on what looked like an innocuous third-period shot that turned what should've been an easy win into a nail biter.

The fact is Shesterkin has had too many games like that; games when he failed to come up with the one clutch save his teammates needed him to make. It's not that he's been terrible; it's just that he hasn't been the Igor we all know and love. And for a team that gives up a lot of high-danger scoring chances, that's a problem. Last season, the Rangers advanced to the Eastern Conference finals primarily due to Shesterkin's brilliance in net. If this month's Shesterkin shows up in the playoffs, the Rangers will be lucky to win one game, much less two rounds.

Going into action today, the top five goaltenders in the NHL by save percentage with at least 30 starts are 1. Linus Ullmark, Boston (.937); 2. Jake Oettinger, Dallas (.927); 3. Connor Hellebuyck, Winnipeg (.926); 4. Ilya Sorokin, Islanders (.924); and Andrei Vasilevskiy, Tampa (.919). Shesterkin (.912) is number 12 on that list. No, that wasn't a typo. Igor Shesterkin, last season's best save percentage goalie, isn't even in the top ten this season.

If you're not concerned, you should be. Chris Drury has done a masterful job assembling what many consider to be a legitimate Stanley Cup contender. The additions of Vladimir Tarasenko and Tyler Motte have made this team deeper and tougher to play against. But no amount of tweaking can overcome substandard goaltending.

The good news is there's still plenty of time for Shesterkin to find his game. The postseason doesn't start for another seven weeks. Additionally, four of the Rangers next five games are against non-playoff teams. So long as they continue to generate scoring chances the way they've been doing this month, they should be okay.

Rangers Coming Into Shape

Chris Drury is apparently done making splashes. His latest move - re-acquiring Tyler Motte from the Ottawa Senators for a conditional seventh round pick and Julien Gauthier - is an indication that the GM believes his team's greatest need isn't the addition of another scorer like Patrick Kane to the top six, but a little sandpaper to his beleaguered fourth line. So Motte - who did a yeoman's job playing with Barclay Goodrow and Ryan Reaves in last year's tournament - will hopefully have a repeat performance with Goodrow and a player to be named later. You don't think Drury would be stupid enough to go with Jake Leschyshyn as his 4C in the postseason, do you? Leschyshyn is merely a caretaker until his replacement arrives. By this time next week Nick Bjugstad, Sam Lafferty, or someone comparable will be donning the blue and red.

Face it: in a perfect world - one without a salary cap - Drury would jump at the chance to land Kane. Hell, with no salary cap, Timo Meier would already be a Ranger. Unfortunately, there is a salary cap and once Drury pulled the trigger on Vladimir Tarasenko, Kane became a luxury he could no longer afford. Yes, I suppose if Drury is able to find someone to take Leschyshyn and Vitali Kravtsov off his hands - a big if - that might free up just barely enough cap space to swing it, but that would mean Goodrow becomes the 4C, which would be a mistake. Goodrow is a winger, not a center.

Like it or not, Rangers fans, you're going to have to deal with Jimmy Vesey playing in the top six. While his inability to finish over the last few games is a concern that could prove problematic in April and May, even more concerning is the fact that Gerard Gallant barely played his fourth line in the third period against the Flames on Saturday. A coach who shortens his bench in the third period is nothing new in hockey; it happens all the time. What happened in Calgary, though, had nothing to do with a coach shortening his bench; it was a not so subtle hint from Gallant to his boss that he couldn't trust some of his players with the game on the line. Credit Drury for getting it. 

Let's be clear here. Motte is not a silver bullet. Like I pointed out above, he did a yeoman's job on the fourth line last postseason, but Bob Gainey he ain't. What he does bring to the table is a quality this team on too many nights still lacks: the ability to win the battles in the trenches. This team has plenty of elite-level talent; what it doesn't have enough of are foot soldiers. Motte is a foot soldier who isn't afraid to get his uniform bloodied. The Rangers are a better, slightly tougher, team now than they were on Saturday.

And they will need every ounce of that toughness if they have any hope of beating what is, without question, the toughest, most complete team in the NHL. The Boston Bruins are having the kind of season teams dream about. At 43-8-5, they're the prohibitive favorites to win the Stanley Cup. They can score, they can defend and they have the best goaltending tandem in the league. Besting them in a seven game series will be a tall order.

With the top six teams all in the Eastern Conference, whichever team makes it to the finals will have gone through three rounds of a track meet. If the Rangers are to be that team, Drury needs to make one more move on his chess board.

It's Time for Drury to Cut His Losses with Kravtsov

Look, I'm not going to make any excuses for the way in which Gerard Gallant has used Vitali Kravtsov this season - and for the record, he has a short leash with most young players - but it's time for Chris Drury to admit a painful truth: the Russian winger was a reach when then GM Jeff Gorton selected him with the 9th overall pick in the 2018 NHL draft, especially considering the Islanders took Oliver Wahlstrom two picks later.

Just take a look at his overall numbers. They don't exactly jump off the page. The year he was drafted, Kravtsov had 8 goals and 21 points in 50 games in the KHL. While at Hartford, he had 6 goals and 15 points in 39 games. The year he bolted for Russia after Drury tried to send him back down to Hartford, he had 6 goals and 13 points in 19 games in the KHL. In 48 games as a Ranger, Kravtsov has 5 goals and 10 points. Meanwhile, Wahlstrom has 32 goals and 61 points in 161 games for the Islanders. Of the 217 players selected in the 2018 draft, only six have fewer points than Kravtsov.

Maybe he's not Lias Andersson, but he's sure as shit ain't Alex Kovalev. And now that his camp has asked that he be traded, he's a declining asset that Drury needs to get something for while he still can. This is not a time for stubbornness. Drury may have gotten a first-round pick from the Dallas Stars for Nils Lundkvist, but that was different. Dallas had a need for an offensive-minded defenseman and the Rangers were loaded at right D. Everyone under the sun knew the Rangers were a little thin at right wing, hence the trade for Vladimir Tarasenko. If Kravtsov can't crack this lineup, that's a red flag. Drury doesn't have the leverage he thinks he has, trust me. The longer he waits, the worse the return will be. If he can get someone like Nick Bjugstad from Arizona to bolster his fourth line for Kravtsov and a sixth rounder, he should jump at it.

Look, it's clear that Kravtsov has no future with this team. Drury has to know that. Somewhere out there is a team willing to give him another shot, the same way the LA Kings did with Andersson. Drury may have inherited Gorton's mistake, but he's under no obligation to keep throwing good money after bad, not with the trade deadline three weeks away and the playoffs five weeks after that.

Beggars can't be choosey.

Drury Makes His Move

So much for not making a splash. Less than 24 hours after I confidently predicted Chris Drury would not make any huge moves going into the trade deadline, he reeled in one of the biggest fishes in the pond. Vladimir Tarasenko is now a New York Ranger, along with Niko Mikkola. The former is a member of the 2019 Stanley Cup champion St. Louis Blues, a six-time 30 goal scorer and a UFA at the end of the season; the latter, also a UFA, is a 6' 4", 209 pound left-handed defenseman who, based on what we saw in the game against the Vancouver Canucks Wednesday night, is Ben Harpur's replacement on the third pairing.

But while Drury may have gone Christmas shopping a bit early - the trade deadline is March 3 - he didn't overpay. To get Tarasenko and Mikkola, the Rangers gave up one of their two first-round draft picks (the lower of the two); a fourth-round draft pick; prospect Hunter Skinner; and Sammy Blais. Drury even got St. Louis GM Doug Armstrong to retain 50 percent of Tarasenko's $7.5 million cap hit. The next time I go shopping for a car, I'm taking this man with me.

Skinner is a prospect the same way I'm a participant in the triathlon. As for Blais, he never fully recovered from his torn ACL, and his $1.5 million cap hit was a luxury the team could no longer afford to carry. Not one single top-tier prospect or current roster player was even on the table. To put this trade in perspective, when the Rangers traded for Andrew Copp last season, Drury gave up two second-round picks, one of which became a first-rounder when the Rangers advanced to the Eastern Conference finals, a fifth-round pick in 2023, and a real prospect in Morgan Barron. So far this season, Barron has 5 goals and 12 points for the Winnipeg Jets, while Skinner has 3 goals and 8 points for Jacksonville of the East Coast League, the A Ball of professional hockey.

And here's the thing: Drury's cart may not be filled yet. That's because on the same day the Rangers consummated their deal with the Blues they put Libor Hajek on waivers. Yes, the last vestiges of that infamous Ryan McDonagh / J.T. Miller trade will soon be gone, along with his corresponding $800k cap hit. Meaning, Drury will have roughly $1.2 million left in the kitty to fortify his fourth line. Like I said, the man is a chess player.

Here's what the Rangers' postseason line-up could look like:

Panarin - Zibanejad - Tarasenko

Lafreniere - Chytil - Kakko

Kreider - Trocheck - Kravtsov

Goodrow - Bjugstad - Vesey

Lindgren - Fox

Miller - Trouba

Mikkola - Schneider

Shesterkin

How's that for a playoff roster? Not bad. In fact, it's a better and deeper roster than the one that came within two games of dethroning the Tampa Bay Lightning last season. Last year, Goodrow was hobbled by a broken ankle and Ryan Reaves was the right wing on the fourth line. Assuming Drury can land Nick Bjugstad, or someone with a comparable skillset, Gerard Gallant will have four lines at his disposal, all capable of putting the puck in the net. Just try checking this team.

There's just one tiny caveat. Tarasenko isn't exactly having a banner year. In 38 games this season, he has a paltry 10 goals and 29 points. Last season, he registered 34 goals and 82 points in 75 games. Over the last three seasons, he's battled the injury bug. If he's fully healthy and motivated, the Rangers may have pulled off the heist of the year; if he isn't, all bets are off.

We'll know soon enough. Tarasenko makes his debut tonight at the Garden against the Seattle Kraken. To quote the late, great Stevie Ray Vaughan: "The house will be rockin'."

Drury's Trade Deadline Dilemma

I'll be honest with you. The prospect of seeing Timo Meier on a line with Mika Zibanejad and Artemi Panarin is enticing. Just think of the possibilities. For the last two seasons, Gerard Gallant has been trying to assemble the perfect line. Last year, Chris Drury brought in Frank Vatrano and Andrew Copp at the trade deadline in an attempt to do just that. It almost worked. Emphasis on almost. Know what? Meier, Zibanaejad and Panarin would be the perfect line.

Did you see the way Meier played last night? He almost single-handedly beat the Lightning, first by scoring the Sharks second goal of the game and then netting the overtime winner. In just 52 games this season, he already has 30 goals, the third time in his career he has cracked the 30 goal mark. And he's only 26. Just imagine what he'd do in a Rangers uniform over the next eight seasons.

Unfortunately, imagination is where this discussion will have to end. That's because as a pending RFA, Meier - who's in the last year of a four-year, $6 million AAV contract - is due for a considerable bump in pay from whichever team is the lucky recipient of his services. Think $8.5 million x 8 years. Meaning he's not a rental; he's a long-term lease.

Why is that a problem? Because the Rangers have three of their own RFAs to deal wth over the summer: Alexis Lafreniere, K'Andre Miller and Filip Chytil. The latter is finally starting to deliver on his promise. He scored two goals against the Flames Monday night and would've had a hat trick had he not passed up a golden scoring chance in the closing seconds of regulation; and the former scored the OT winner. The total price tag for all three will be considerably more than what Meier will command all by himself.

Bottom line: there's simply no way Drury can acquire Meier and keep him; not unless he decides to let Lafreniere and either Miller or Chytil walk - very unlikely - or he moves a large contract. And regarding the latter, the only contracts large enough to offset Meier's price tag all have NMCs attached to them. If you seriously think for a moment that Jacob Trouba - $8 million AAV - is going to just waive what his agent worked so hard to get him, you obviously have taken one too may pucks to the head. Long story, short, Meier isn't coming to Broadway, at least not in this lifetime.

But what about the option of just trading for him and letting him walk? The assets Drury would have to part with, both in draft picks and prospects, would make Meier the most expensive three-month rental in franchise history. And God forbid the Rangers don't win the Cup, it would have profound repercussions for years to come. Given this G.M.'s track record, it seems highly improbable he would be that reckless.

So where does that leave Drury? Ostensibly right where he was a year ago at this time. It should be noted that going into the '22 trade deadline, the Rangers were supposedly linked to several high-profile players like J.T. Miller, Mark Scheiflele and Claude Giroux? In the end, Drury passed on all of them and opted to go with role players like Copp, Vatrano, Tyler Motte and Justin Braun. All four were integral in the Rangers advancing to the Eastern Conference finals. Sometimes it's the trades you don't make that end up being the most consequential.

That's why I think Drury isn't going to make a big splash at the trade deadline; not unless the price is just right. And with several more teams looking to improve their playoff fortunes, that scenario might be next to impossible to achieve. Translation, no Patrick Kane or Vladimir Tarasenko.

Indeed, apart from Vitali Kravtsov - who seems to have worn out his welcome with Gallant - there isn't a single prospect in the organization Drury is willing to part with. Will Cuylle and Brennan Othmann are all but certain to make the team next season; and now that they're starting to click, the Kid line isn't going anywhere. Who knows, a year or two from now that line might be among the best in the league. 

Jimmy Vesey, who was a PTO coming into camp, has looked pretty good playing on the Zibanejad line. He would've had himself a pair of goals Monday night were it not for two incredible saves by Jacob Markstrom. Gallant loves 200 foot players, and Vesey, along with Barclay Goodrow, who has found a home playing with Vincent Trocheck and Chris Kreider, are the ideal Swiss army knives. You can slot them anywhere and they contribute. Believe it or not, this year's team is better and deeper than last year's team.

So maybe Drury decides he likes the makeup of the roster and elects to shore up his fourth line. Perhaps Nick Bjugstad from Arizona could be had for a third round pick. With 11 goals, he'd be perfect centering Cuylle and Sammy Blais. And with Bjugstad making only $900k this season, the Rangers could re-sign him on the cheap, just like they did with Vesey and Ben Harper. The nice thing about Drury is that, like a good chess player, he's always thinking two moves ahead.

Look, in a world with no salary cap, Timo Meier would be a New York Ranger right now. So, by the way, would at least half a dozen other players. But if memory serves, before the NHL instituted a hard salary cap, the Rangers would spend money like a drunken sailor, and for their effort typically wound up with a nasty hangover.