"We were unable to reach an agreement. We wish Carlos all the best."
Well, it was nice while it lasted.
Just over two and a half weeks after the New York Mets announced they had signed Carlos Correa to a 12 year, $315 million deal, and roughly two weeks after it was learned they had issues with his medicals, the Minnesota Twins swooped in and signed him to a 6 year, $200 million deal.
The Mets are now the second team to express concerns over the long-term durability of Correa. Only days before the Mets announced their deal, the San Francisco Giants walked away from a 13 year, $350 million deal.
Let's get one thing straight. The idea that Steve Cohen got outbid by the Twins is absurd. If you look at the offer the Mets made, they were willing to guarantee the first six years, which comes to $157.5 million. Assuming Correa passed his yearly physicals, which would've commenced in year seven, they were willing to guarantee the remaining six years for another $157.5 million. The Twins offer was $200 million over six years, with another $70 million spread out over four years, again based on him passing yearly physicals.
The difference comes out to $45 million. So basically, Correa took less term and less overall money to get more upfront money, which tells you both he and his agent Scott Boras knew that his surgically repaired ankle might not hold up the entire 12 years. Why else would they leave that much money on the table?
So why wouldn't Cohen just swallow hard and match the Twins offer? Why should he? Think about it. His overall offer was higher. All Correa had to do was submit to yearly physicals in years seven thru twelve to get his money. The fact that he balked tells you everything you need to know. If there was no problem with the ankle, then there shouldn't have been any problem taking the Mets offer.
But let's for the moment give Correa the benefit of the doubt. Let's say that he felt indignant about having to subject himself to yearly physicals and decided to grab the more lucrative upfront offer. $42.5 million over six years is a shit load of money. Properly invested, it could set Correa up for life, even if he never plays another inning after the six years are up.
If that was Boras's thinking, however, it was pretty short sighted, in my opinion. The fact is even with Correa in their lineup, the Twins went 78-84. Without Correa in their lineup, the Mets went 101-61 and made the playoffs. With Cohen willing to spend whatever it takes to win, Correa would've been far better off playing in New York than in Minnesota. Not to mention Correa could have made up the difference in salary over the six years in endorsements alone.
This is the problem I have with agents. It's all about the almighty buck with them. They seldom consider a player's career when deciding which team to go with. Mike Trout is a case in point. In 2019, Trout's agent, Craig Landis, negotiated a ten year $426 million deal with the Los Angeles Angels. At the time, it was the largest contract awarded to a professional athlete. Here's the problem. The Angels are one of the worst teams in baseball. They have not had a winning season since 2015, and last year finished third in the A.L. West with a 73-89 record. Imagine what a player like Trout (.283, 40, 80) could do on a contender.
As for the Mets, they will now have to look elsewhere for that "one more hitter" to put them over the top. It won't be easy. Some names that have surfaced are Trey Mancini, Adam Duvall and Andrew McCutchen. While all three are free agents and could be signed for considerably less than Correa, none had the kind of year Correa did in 2022. Mancini, in particular, had a disappointing postseason for the Houston Astros.
Then there's Shohei Ohtani. The Angels DH / pitcher will be a free agent next season and Cohen is one of the few owners capable of signing him to a long-term contract. As I wrote last September, Ohtani would instantly become the Mets best player. Even if it meant gutting the farm system, Billy Eppler should do it. Players like him do not grow on trees.
But that's 2024. The Mets still need another bat for the 2023 season. Even with all the money Cohen has committed to this team, they still have basically the same lineup as last year. And that was good enough for second place in the N.L. East and a first round exit in the playoffs. The Phillies are a better team and the Braves are, well, the Braves.
Translation: the postseason is not a given.
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