Buck is Playing with Fire

In theory, the strategy makes sense. You start your best pitcher against the Padres in game one of the wildcard round. Then, assuming he wins, you start your third best pitcher in the clincher. And if everything goes according to plan, your second best pitcher is available to start game one of the NLDS against the Dodgers.

Sounds perfect. What good possibly go wrong?

Well, for starters, let's say Max Scherzer out duels Yu Darvish. So far, so good. Buck Showalter hands the ball to Christ Bassitt in game two, who pitches well, but not well enough to win. Now, Buck has to rely on Jacob deGrom in game three to save the season, and quite possibly his job. 

Regardless of what happens, the grand strategy is out the window. If Jake throws a gem, Buck has to decide whether to go with Carlos Carrasco or Taijuan Walker as his game one starter in the NLDS. Either way, the Dodgers go up 1-0. But if Jakes loses, Buck will spend the entire off season trying to justify why he elected not to go with his two best pitchers in the first playoff series this franchise has appeared in since 2015.

I cannot emphasize enough just how critical it is for this team, after blowing the division to the Braves in the final days of the season, to win at least one playoff series. To go out in the first round is simply a non-starter. If the Mets go on and lose to the Dodgers, the fans will be disappointed, but they'll live. After all, the Dodgers are the best team in the majors. They're suppose to win. But if the Mets lose to a team like the Padres, the fans will be outraged, and rightfully so.

Look, the goal of every professional sports team is to win championships, I get it. And owner Steve Cohen has made it abundantly clear he's willing to spend whatever it takes to accomplish that goal. He's already invested $279 million in salaries this year and will likely spend another $20 to $30 million next year. That is music to the ears of a fanbase that for far too long has seen its team play second fiddle to the Yankees.

But, let's be honest for a moment. As good as the Mets have been this season - and winning 101 games is not too shabby - it does have flaws; and some of those flaws were revealed in Atlanta last weekend. Only an incurable optimist would believe this team is capable of winning a World Series.

But the Padres are not the Braves. The Mets should beat them. They're the better team. While the pitching staffs may be comparable, the Mets have a deeper lineup and Edwin Diaz in their bullpen. If they lose because Buck was caught looking too far ahead, it will be the worst decision by a Mets manager since Davey Johnson decided to leave Doc Golden in to face Mike Scioscia in the top of the 9th in game four of 1988 NLCS. We all know what happened. Scioscia's two-run homer tied the score, and the Dodgers went on to win the game, the pennant and the World Series.

Buck Showalter is playing with fire, and if he doesn't knock it off, the whole season could go up in smoke.