Wednesday, July 31, 2024

Stearns Did the Right Thing At the Deadline



There were no blockbuster moves for the New York Mets at this year's trade deadline. No, "Oh that's the final piece we needed to put us over the top" pronouncements from the Twitterverse. The fact is there wasn't one player David Stearns acquired that would be described as a needle mover. 

And yet, when you look at the totality of what Stearns accomplished, it was actually quite impressive. Without surrendering a single top 20 prospect in his system, he acquired a proven bat in Jesse Winker, a serviceable starter in Paul Blackburn, and badly needed bullpen help in the form of Phil Maton, Ryne Stanek, Huascar Brazoban and Tyler Zuber. Stanek was a member of the 2022 World Series champion Houston Astros but has struggled of late; Maton and Brazoban had not allowed a run in their last 5 appearances prior to their trade; while Zuber has bounced around and is looking for a home.

Overall, I'd give Stearns a B+. Yes, I realize the Mets are in the middle of a playoff race. Currently, they're tied with the Arizona Diamondbacks for the third and final Wild Card spot. The Flushing Faithful have been very patient with Steve Cohen, but there's a limit to anyone's patience. For a franchise that hasn't won a title since 1986, you can hardly blame the fanbase for being frustrated at the seeming lack of urgency at the deadline.

But here's the thing that most people need to remember. With the exception of Tanner Scott, whom the San Diego Padres sacrificed a lot to get, I didn't see a single reliever on the market that would've magically transformed a bullpen that, sans Edwin Diaz and Jose Butto, has been very inconsistent, to say the least. Face it, every team in contention was looking for pitching. It was a sellers market. Stearns would've been a fool to allow himself to get extorted the way the Padres did.

If 2022 taught us anything, it's that even in baseball, there are no shortcuts. The Mets thought they could buy a World Series. It blew up in their face, and Cohen had to fork over a king's ransom to get Justin Verlander and Max Scherzer off his payroll. Those who forget history are doomed to repeat it. 

I said it before and I'll say it again, I like where this team is headed. They're exciting to watch. Winker will add depth to a lineup that has, with a few rare exceptions, been smacking the hell out of the ball. The additional arms hopefully will stabilizing a bullpen that could use all the help it can get.

But basically, to quote the Dramatics, whatcha see is whatcha get. The Mets were already a playoff contender before the trade deadline; and now they're a slightly better playoff contender. It comes down to the athletes in that dugout.

In the end, it always does.

Friday, July 26, 2024

OMG!



On June 2, the New York Mets record stood at 24-35. They were mired in fourth place in the National League East, with only the Miami Marlins keeping them from the cellar. The Flushing faithful were bracing themselves for yet another lost year. It was looking more and more like David Stearns was going to be a seller at the trade deadline.

Since then, they've gone 30-13 - including a home and home sweep of the Yankees - to improve their record to 54-48. And with last night's improbable win over the Atlanta Braves, they are only a half game out of second place in the East and are a half game up on the San Diego Padres for the second Wild Card. If you saw this coming six weeks ago, you're a better person than me. Frankly, I was already looking ahead to football season. 

So how did the Amazin's turn their season around? Ironically enough, with the one thing most people didn't think they had enough of going into 2024: their bats. In the months of June and July, the Mets lead the major leagues with 256 runs scored in 45 games for an average of 5.7 runs per game. The Minnesota Twins are second with 235 runs in 44 games for an average of 5.3 runs per game. How significant is that? Over the last twenty years, the closest the Mets have come to leading the league in scoring was 2006 and 2022 when they finished 7th with 834 runs and 5th with 772 runs respectively. And those teams are generally considered to be the best offensive teams since that '86 World Series team that finished 6th with 783 runs.

For a franchise known for its elite pitching, being such a prolific hitting team has been the story of the summer. And to think, they're doing it with Pete Alonso having a sub-par year. In 102 games, the polar bear has hit only 20 home runs. He's on track to hit 32. Not counting the pandemic year of 2020, Alonso has averaged 44 home runs per season. Pete is an unrestricted free agent after this year, so it would behoove him to kick it in gear if he expects Steve Cohen to give him the contract his agent Scott Boras is looking for.

The secret sauce for the Mets success at the plate this year has been their depth. Put succinctly, this is the most imposing lineup they've had in years. In addition to Francisco Linder, who unlike Alonso, is having one of his best seasons with a .259 BA, 22 HRs and 62 RBIs, there's Brandon Nimmo - .236 BA, 16 HRs and 63 RBIs - young studs like Mark Vientos - .284 / 13 / 35 in just 57 games - and Francisco Alvarez - .273 / 4 / 24 in 50 games, and OMG singing sensation Jose Iglesias - .366 / 3 / 17 in 37 games. Off-season additions Harrison Bader - .263 / 8 / 36 - and J.D. Martinez - .258 / 10 / 40 - have contributed to the hit parade, as well.

What's impressive about this Mets team is that with the exception of Jeff McNeil, who is starting to come around after an early-season slump, every hitter in the starting lineup has an OPS over .700. That means if you're a pitcher, there are no easy outs. No, "I'll walk this guy to get to the next one," mindset. Unlike the Yankees, who with Juan Soto and Aaron Judge, are about as top heavy as the SS Poseidon on New Year's Eve, the Mets spread the wealth around. Each game it seems as if there's a different hero. At the pace they're on, 90 plus wins is not out of the question.

But while their offense may be percolating, their pitching hasn't been anything to write home about. The Mets team ERA is 4.15, 20th overall in the majors. Closer Edwin Diaz, after a rough stretch, is finally starting to round into form. The loss of Drew Smith, who was supposed to be Diaz' set-up man, to season-ending surgery, has made an already thin bullpen that much thinner. The emergence of Jose Butto as a long-reliever has been a pleasant surprise, and the return of Kodai Sengai will bolster a starting rotation that has Luis Severino, Jose Quintana, Sean Manaea and David Peterson. But for this team to contend for the playoffs, Stearns will need to fortify his bullpen at the trade deadline. Adam Ottavino and Jake Diekman aren't the answers.

Do I like where this team is headed? In a word, yes. They're exciting to watch, and with the prospects they have lined up in the minors, the future looks very promising. A tweak here and there by the front office and the Mets may finally give their fans something to root for in October and November. 



Tuesday, July 2, 2024

Blame Drury for Trouba Nightmare


Here's what we know, so far. After a disappointing and bitter exit from the playoffs at the hands of the Florida Panthers, it was clear Chris Drury meant it when he said everything was on the table. His first move was to waive Barclay Goodrow. I remember saying at the time that I didn't think there was an appetite within the Rangers organization to move Jacob Trouba. Clearly, I was wrong.

The first hint that something might be brewing was when Drury asked Trouba's agent to submit a list of 15 teams Trouba would not want to be traded to. While it is standard operating procedure for a player to submit such a list when a contract switches from a NMC to a NTC, it is unusual for a GM to request it before it is due. And after the way Goodrow was waived, Trouba understandably was concerned he might be the next one out the door.

Then came the story by Larry Brooks in The New York Post, which had Trouba going to the Detroit Red Wings for an undisclosed return, presumably a couple of mid-level draft picks. Detroit would pick up $5.5 million of Trouba's cap hit, while the Rangers would retain $2.5 million. According to Brooks, the deal was done.

Everything seemed to be going smoothly. Drury was on the verge of ridding the organization of a contract that was an albatross around its neck, while Trouba was about to be reunited with his old buddy Andrew Copp. Don't you just love happy endings?

That's when the shit hit the fan. Late Sunday, news broke that Trouba was none too happy about leaving the Rangers. In fact, there was speculation that his agent might submit what is referred to as a strategic no trade list; that's a list of teams Trouba would accept a trade to but which likely don't have enough cap space to take on his contract. And how would his agent know which teams don't have enough cap space? The same way we all do: by going to Capfriendly and Puckpedia, that's how.

Going into Monday, it was pretty clear that the standoff between Drury and Trouba impacted the moves the Rangers were able to make. One prominent free agent after another came off the board. While I thought it was highly unlikely that, even with Trouba's contract off the books, there would be enough cap space to sign Jake Guentzel or Steven Stamkos, players like Jonathan Marchessault, Jake DeBrusk, Teuvo Tarevainen and Tyler Toffoli were all reasonable targets that were in Drury's wheelhouse, and yet every one of them signed elsewhere: Marchessault ($5.5m x 5) with the Nashville Predators; DeBrusk ($5.5m x 7) with the Vancouver Canucks; Tarevainen ($5.4m x 3) with the Chicago Blackhawks; and Toffoli ($6m x 4) with the San Jose Sharks.

So instead of landing someone who could've moved the needle, the Rangers wound up signing Sam Carrick ($1m x 3) and trading for Reilly Smith ($5m x 1). Drury was able to get the Pittsburgh Penguins to retain $1.25m of Smith's cap hit by tossing in a 2027 second-round pick to go along with a 2025 fifth rounder. Carrick, I assume, will replace Goodrow on the fourth line, while Smith will likely play on the same line with Mika Zibanejad and Chris Kreider, and hopefully be more productive than Jack Roslovic and Blake Wheeler were in their relatively short stints with the team. 

To say this situation was badly handled would be an understatement. Drury seems to have completely misread the room here. After the grief he got over how he handled the Goodrow waiver, he did a 180 by informing Trouba of his intentions to trade him before his contract officially switched over to a NTC. In other words, Drury was hoping he could get Trouba to agree to a trade before free agency began so he would know exactly how much he could spend.

But what he didn't know, and hadn't considered, was that the primary reason for Trouba's reluctance to leave New York had very little to do with him not wanting to play for the Red Wings; it had to do with him not wanting to leave his wife Kelly, who's in the final year of a three-year residency at a local Manhattan hospital. Out of fear of retribution to her, the media has not mentioned the name of the hospital.

Which leads me to my next point: Whatever your feelings about this matter, Trouba's wife should be off limits. She has done absolutely nothing wrong here. Going after her is reprehensible. There's no excuse for it. If you're looking for someone to blame, the lion's share should go to Drury. He is the President and GM of this franchise; a franchise which has won exactly one Stanley Cup since 1940. Thanks to his bungling, it is quite possible that Trouba won't be going anywhere this summer. That means the Rangers will have an $8 million defenseman on the third defensive pairing to start the season.

Holy clusterfuck, Batman!

This whole thing could've been avoided had Drury simply acted more decisively. For starters, he shouldn't have asked for Trouba's no trade list in advance. He should've waited until Monday, and if Detroit wasn't on it, he could've pulled the trigger on the trade.* If Detroit was on it, he could've called up his former assistant Mike Grier in San Jose and asked him if he could take on Trouba's contract. If the answer was yes, he could've just waived him like he did with Goodrow. Problem solved.

Obviously, Drury would've caught flack. But that's why he gets the big bucks: to make these types of calls. You think Julien BriseBois gives a shit about catching flack. The Tampa Bay Lightning GM deliberately lowballed Steven Stamkos with an insulting $3 million AAV offer, knowing it would be rejected, just so he could sign Jake Guentzel to a more lucrative $9 million AAV contract. He then held a press conference in which he lied to the media about how it all went down - with a straight face, no less.

Think about that. One of the greatest players ever to don a Lightning jersey and BriseBois literally drove him out of town without so much as batting an eye. That's about as cutthroat as it gets. If you want to know why the Lightning won back-to-back Stanley Cups, this is why. They have a GM who puts the interests of the team ahead of the players. Maybe you don't agree that Guentzel is a better player than Stamkos - and for the record, I don't. But that doesn't matter. What matters is that the man running the organization thought so, and he didn't let anything or anyone get in his way.

Drury needs to be that kind of man. He can sympathize with what Trouba and his wife are going through, but in the end his primary responsibility has to be to his employer and the fans, many of whom haven't seen a championship in their lifetime. The fact is Trouba signed a contract; a contract that went from a no move clause to a 15-team no trade clause on July 1. It's not up to him to "accept" a trade to a team that's not on that list; it's up to him to abide by the terms of the contract. Period.

It's not like Detroit is on the surface of the moon. It's a couple of hours away by plane. What happens when the Rangers go on a long road trip? Does he catch the red eye to Kennedy between games? He's a professional athlete; his GM needs to treat him like one.

For all the intangibles Jacob Trouba brings to the table - his leadership in the locker room, his physical play on the ice - he simply isn't worth the money he's making, or the cap space he's taking up. Chris Drury knows it; the fans know it; and I suspect even his teammates know it. Whether it happens this summer or next, his days as a New York Ranger are numbered.



* I am going on the assumption that the Brooks story is accurate and that there was a trade already in place between Drury and Steve Yzerman. It's quite possible that all that took place was a discussion of a trade. The fact is we don't really know what happened.