Wednesday, June 26, 2024

Introducing the Nova Knicks





Well, Leon Rose finally made his big move. On the eve of the NBA Draft, he sent five first round picks - four of them unprotected - a second round pick and Bojan Bogdanovic to the Brooklyn Nets for Mikal Bridges. The trade many people - myself included - speculated might happen, has finally become a reality. Turns out dogs and cats do sleep together.

Bridges joins fellow Villanova Wildcat alums Jalen Brunson, Josh Hart and Donte DiVincenzo in what promises to be a very dynamic and diversified offense. Head coach Tom Thibodeau loves players that can play multiple positions and that can rotate in and out of the starting lineup. With Bridges and Hart, he has two players that can play the 2 or the 3. That means both players can be on the court along with Brunson. It also gives the Knicks four exceptionally strong wing men that can score and defend.

Forget the draft picks. The Knicks had eleven first rounders before the trade; now they have six. What was Rose supposed to do with them, hang them on his office wall and stare at them? The idea that there was some mythical trade out there that he was supposed to wait for is nice, but ultimately unsubstantiated. For all we know, this was the best deal he was going to get, and even that wouldn't have gotten done had Bridges not made it clear to the Nets that he wanted out of Brooklyn and his preference was the Knicks. The Monday-morning quarterback contingent needs to cool their jets.

The real problem for Rose isn't draft capital, it's cap space. Because of the way this trade went down, the Knicks had only $50 million left in hard cap space with which to compete their roster. With the addition of Bridges, they had just 10 players under contract for the 2024-25 season. The NBA minimum is 14. OG Anunoby, Isaiah Hartenstein and Precious Achiuwa were among those who still were unsigned, and all three had played pivotal roles in this team's success last season.

Well, strike one free agent off the list. Earlier today, the Knicks re-signed Anunoby to a 5-year, $212.5 million deal. While the average annual value is $42.5 million, the way the contract is structured, the cap hit for year one is only $36.7 million.

The significance of this signing cannot be overstated. Anunoby, who opted out of the last year of his contract, could easily have signed a max deal with another team. There was talk that the Philadelphia 76ers were very much interested in acquiring his services. Daryl Morey would've liked nothing better than to snatch him away from New York. You could just see the headlines in the Philly press.

Losing OG to the Sixers would've been devastating for this organization. It would've meant that the Knicks basically gave up RJ Barrett and Immanuel Quickley for what amounted to a rental. Now that won't happen. A crucial piece of this team has been locked up for the next five years. And if Rose can get creative over the next few days, he might be able to pull another rabbit or two out of his hat. 

Because New York owns the early-bird rights to Hartenstein, the most they can offer him is a four-year contract at $72.5 million. That comes out to an average of $18 million per year. A team like the Oklahoma City Thunder, who desperately need a physical center, could easily offer him five years at $25 million per. But like Anunoby, maybe I-Hart takes less to remain with the Knicks. Who knows? Perhaps the luster of chasing a championship is worth more to him than a few extra million bucks. Moving Mitchell Robinson would give the Knicks the cap space they need to get this done.

Yes, Leon Rose had himself a good day yesterday, and an even better one today. He not only landed his number one offseason target, he held on to one of his best players. But his work isn't done. In fact, you could say it's just beginning.




Tuesday, June 25, 2024

Chris Drury's Agonizing Decision.



What do Cam Ward (.920), Chris Osgood (.930), Marc-Andre Fluery (.913), Tim Thomas (.967), Jonathan Quick (.947 & .932), Corey Crawford (.925 & .938), Matt Murray (.920 & .931), Braden Holtby (.916), Jordan Binnington (.912), Andrei Vasilevsky (.911 & .943), Darcy Kuemper (.908) and Adin Hill (.923) all have in common? They all led their respective teams to Stanley Cup championships, and did so while posting a save percentage above .900.

Since the NHL instituted a hard salary cap beginning in the 2005-06 season, only three teams have won the Cup with goaltenders that had sub .900 save percentages: Jean-Sébastien Giguère (.891) for the Anaheim Ducks in 2007, Antti Niemi (.882) for the Chicago Blackhawks in 2010 and Sergei Bobrovsky (.899) for the Florida Panthers in 2024. But if we're being fair, it's really only two. That's because Bobrovsky posted save percentages of 1.000, .947, .914 and .958 in the four games the Panthers won. He literally stole game one. Without him in net, the Edmonton Oilers probably win the series in six.

So what is my point? Basically this: goaltending is as essential to winning the Stanley Cup as pitching is to winning the World Series and special teams are to winning the Super Bowl. Without it, your chances of prevailing are remote at best. The fact is there isn't a sport on this planet that doesn't depend on one team stopping the other from scoring.

Yes, there are exceptions to this rule. I listed two of them above. But you can't tell me with a straight face that the Los Angeles Kings win their two Cups in 2012 & 2014 without Jonathan Quick between the pipes, or that the Pittsburgh Penguins and Tampa Bay Lightning win back-to-back Cups without Matt Murray and Andrei Vasilevsky respectively. Not without having to submit to a breathalyzer test.

Go back as far as you like, even before the cap era. Where would the Montreal Canadiens have been without Ken Dryden? Or the Philadelphia Flyers without Bernie Parent? Or the Islanders without Billy Smith? Or the New Jersey Devils without Marty Brodeur? I omit the Oilers '80s dynasty, because I do believe that team would've won with Doug Soeteart in goal. Imagine having to go back five decades to prove a point. And that point, at least according to the pinheads - some of whom make a living covering this sport and actually think they know something about hockey - is that goaltending is a plug-in-play position. Basically, you can put anybody in there, and if your team is good enough, you'll win.

Oh yeah? Tell that to Oilers head coach Kris Knoblauch. His goalie Stuart Skinner should've stopped Sam Reinhart's second-period goal that made it 2-1 Florida. If he makes that save, game seven likely goes to overtime. And then who knows what would've happened. We could be talking about the greatest comeback in NHL history instead of, well, you know. His counterpart - the guy everybody swears is grossly overpaid at $10 million - had no problem coming up with the big saves when his team needed them. In hockey, it's not how many saves you make, but when you make them that counts. With the series on the line and the Cup in the building, Sergei Bobrovsky delivered. The man earned his paycheck. EVERY FUCKING PENNY!

Goaltending is the only position I can think of where scoring an 88 on a test gets you an F. And that's why Chris Drury has an agonizing decision to make. One that I wouldn't wish on my worst enemy. A year from now, Igor Shesterkin will be a UFA. For those of you who own stock in Depends, now would be a good time to buy some more shares. Trust me, you're gonna need 'em.

There's no polite way to put this. Without Shesterkin, the Rangers are a slightly above average team that isn't close to being a contender. They don't beat the Penguins, much less the Carolina Hurricanes, in 2022. And while they most likely would've beaten the Washington Capitals this year, that series would've gone at least six games. Forget about the Canes. They would've lost in six. The Panthers? Try a four-game sweep. You wanna give the Blueshirts game two at the Garden? Ok, fine, but that's it. The fact is I cannot think of a single team in the league that is more reliant upon its goaltending than the Rangers. It's like Popeye with his spinach.

And that's why unless his agent goes completely bonkers and demands somewhere in the neighborhood of $14-$15 million per year over 8 years, Drury cannot afford to let Igor jump ship. Even if the number is $12 million, unless the Rangers believe Dylan Garand is ready to make the leap from Hartford to the NHL - a HUGE risk, by the way - they sign him to that contract. In fact, they make sure he doesn't leave the building until he signs it. He grew up in Russia; I'm sure he's familiar with being detained. 

Just kidding, I think.

Don't get me wrong. If there's a chance Drury can keep that number at or below $10 million, he should exhaust every effort to do so. But if I had $10 million, or even $12 million, to spend on a goaltender, I'd take Shesterkin over Bobrovsky or Vasilevsky any day of the week, and twice on Sunday. You wanna talk about a team-friendly contract? If the $5.7 million Igor is currently making doesn't constitute highway robbery, I don't know what does. One way or another, the man is going to get paid; the only question is by whom?

Look, I get the economics here. $10 or $12 million is nothing to sneeze at. And with the salary cap expected to go up to $92 million next summer, the ramifications of one player taking up potentially 13 percent of that cap are considerable. But given that Artemi Panarin is making $11.6 million and he hasn't exactly been Guy Lafleur in the postseason, is it really unreasonable to compensate someone who has been, without question, the team's most valuable player the last three years? Like I said, someone is going to pay him.

There will be those who will argue, perhaps with some justification, that it's possible to find elite goaltenders without breaking the bank. Adin Hill, Jake Oettinger and Jeremy Swayman all made less than $5 million and all had exceptional postseasons. I would counter that Hill and Oettinger are a year away from becoming RFAs and Swayman is an RFA right now and looking at a fairly significant pay raise. By the time they get to UFA status, all three will be making five figures, I can assure you. As Howie Rose would say, you can put it in the books.

This is the hard part of being a general manager. Anybody can hire and fire a coach. But fielding a team that is both a contender and cap compliant, now that takes talent. Chris Drury not only has to fix what went wrong this year, he has to do so in a way that guarantees there will still be a reason to go to Madison Square Garden in the 2025-26 season.

I don't envy him the next twelve months.


Thursday, June 20, 2024

Is Chris Drury Done?



That Chris Drury was looking to shed salary going into the offseason should come as no surprise to anyone familiar with this team's cap situation. After re-signing Kaapo Kakko to a one-year extension worth $2.4 million, the New York Rangers had $10 million in available cap space, per Puckpedia, with 18 players - 12 forwards, 4 defensemen and 2 goalies - signed for the 2024-25 season. Assuming he re-signs Ryan Lindgren and Braden Schneider, both of whom are RFAs, that will increase the number of signed players to 20, two below last season's roster total.

Let's say Lindgren agrees to a 3-year extension at $4.5 million per, and Schneider agrees to a two-year bridge deal at $2.5 million per. That reduces the available cap space Drury has to work with to $3 million. For a President and GM who said at his last press conference that "everything was on the table," $3 million doesn't go as far as it used to. Remember last year's offseason when the cap-strapped Rangers were forced to shop at the bargain basement? No? Do the names Nick Bonino, Blake Wheeler, Erik Gustafson, and Tyler Pitlick ring a bell?

Well, this time around, Drury wasn't going to let that happen. So on Tuesday, he waived Barclay Goodrow and his $3.64 million contract. And the following day, the San Jose Sharks claimed him off waivers. To say Goodrow was displeased would be putting it mildly. Seems the 31 year-old forward had a 15-team no trade clause and apparently the Sharks were on it. Oh, well.

To be honest, I'm impressed Drury went the waiver route instead of a buyout. The latter would've allowed Goodrow to sign with any team he chose while netting the Blueshirts $247,222 in cap space this coming season. But it also would've shackled the organization with cap hits ranging from $1 million to $3.5 million over the following five years. Clearly, Drury didn't want to repeat the same mistake his predecessor Jeff Gorton made when he bought out the contracts of Dan Girardi and Henrik Lundqvist.

Now for the sixty-four thousand dollar question. Is Drury done, or is Goodrow the first of several high-priced contracts headed for the exit? That depends on how he feels about this core. Does it need a tweaking or a partial teardown? If I had to guess, I'd lean more towards the former. Remember, this is a team that played most of the season with only two legit centers and no 1RW, yet still won the Presidents' Trophy. And as I pointed out in my last piece, had they not had the misfortune of going up against the Florida Panthers in the Eastern Conference Finals, the Rangers would now be battling the Edmonton Oilers for the Stanley Cup. As disappointed as Drury was at how the season ended, I'm quite certain he knows that.

Having an extra $3.64 million in the kitty could mean the difference between signing a top-six forward or a bottom-six forward. Just imagine how good this team might be next season with a bonafide right wing on the first line and a healthy Filip Chytil centering the third. You can bet the ranch Drury's imagining it. That's why I don't think we're looking at wholesale changes here. Assuming Lindgren isn't unreasonable with his contract demands, I expect Drury will use the lion's share of his cap space to go shopping for an elite scorer to play on Mika Zibanejad's right side. While that won't be enough to land Jake Guentzel, it might be enough to get Jonathan Marchessault or Jake DeBrusk. And if those two prove too costly, there's always Patrick Kane as a fallback. The last time "Showtime" was on Broadway it bombed royally. But maybe playing a full season for a coach like Peter Laviolette who can incorporate his talents into this lineup will be just what the doctor ordered.

How does this roster look?

Forwards:
Kreider - Zibanaejad - Kane / Marchessault / DeBrusk
Panarin - Trocheck - Lafreniere 
Othmann - Chytil - Kakko
Cuylle - Brodzinski - Vesey
Rempe
Defensemen:
Lindgren - Fox
Miller - Schneider
Jones - Trouba
Mackey
Goalies:
Shesterkin - Quick

While some fans may be disappointed that Jacob Trouba will still be here next season, the fact is I don't think there's an appetite within the Rangers organization to move on from him. A buyout would mean a dead cap hit of $4 million for the next two years - a non-starter - and a trade, assuming Drury can find a willing partner that has the cap space and isn't on Trouba's no trade list, would be nothing more than a salary dump. Period. Besides, when fully healthy, number 8 brings certain things to the table that will be hard to replace. Drury already got rid of one leader in the locker room; I doubt he's willing to vanquish another.

Of course, I could be dead wrong. Maybe Drury has a couple more moves up his sleeve before free agency begins. I guess we'll know soon enough, won't we?



Wednesday, June 5, 2024

The More Things Change...



In the end, relentlessness won out over resiliency. The relentless Florida Panthers were simply too much for the resilient New York Rangers to handle. Goodbye 1994 parallels; hello futility.

Going into their series against the Panthers, the Rangers knew they needed to have three things go their way in order to have a shot at advancing to the finals: 1. They needed to play almost flawless hockey; 2. They needed to win the special teams battle; and 3. They needed to have Igor Shresterkin be the best player on the ice. As it turned out, one out of three wasn't nearly good enough.

While stats don't always tell you everything about a series, in this case they did. And the stats were not kind to the Rangers: Overall scoring chances: 191-140 Florida; High-danger scoring chances 55-38 Florida; Power play efficiency: Florida 5-19 (26.3%), New York 1-15 (6.7); Shots on goal: 202-151 Florida. About the only stat the Rangers managed to win was save percentage, where Shesterkin edged out his counterpart Sergei Bobrovsky .930 to .921. Indeed, it was only due to the sheer brilliance of the former Vezina-trophy winner that the games were as close as they were. He stole game three, but he couldn't steal the series.

Given the expectations this team had going into the postseason, this will be a very bitter pill to swallow. For the second time in three years, the Rangers made it to the Eastern Conference Finals only to fall short. There will be a lot of questions that need answers to, but before we get to that, let's first acknowledge the accomplishments, and there were several.

The Rangers won the Presidents' Trophy. They set a franchise record with 55 regular-season wins. They led the NHL with 34 come-from-behind victories. Apart from January, where they went 5-7-2, they were the lead dog pretty much the entire year. Their 154 regular-season wins over the last three seasons is fourth best in the league, while their 54 playoff wins since 2014 is tied with the Dallas Stars for third best. Alexis Lafreniere had a break out year under Peter Laviolette. And though they lost to the Panthers, they can boast that they are better than the Toronto Maple Leafs, the Tampa Bay Lightning, the Boston Bruins, and, oh yes, the Carolina Hurricanes, whom they've now beaten two out of the last three years.

That's a list of accomplishments most teams would give their eye teeth to have. Whatever else you might think about how the season went, between the two of them, Jeff Gorton and Chris Drury assembled a team that is no worse than fourth best in the NHL. And if they hadn't had the misfortune of going up against the Panthers in the conference finals, they might very well be opening up this Saturday night at the Garden against the Edmonton Oilers in the Stanley Cup Finals.

But here's the thing: they did have the misfortune of going up against the Panthers: a team that, pound for pound, was the most complete in the NHL. And let's be honest. For all their elite talent, the Rangers Kryptonite has always been physically imposing teams that take away the middle of the ice. Against the Blueshirts, the Panthers put on a clinic.

So now we get to the number one question: what does Drury do this offseason? Clearly changes will have to be made. The Rangers have three players who are RFAs this summer: Kaapo Kakko, Ryan Lindgren and Braden Schneider. Does Drury re-sign all three? Or does he trade one or more of them? If it's the latter, the likely one to go is Kakko. For all the intangibles the former number two pick in the 2019 NHL Draft brings to the table, the fact is he just hasn't worked out. Even under Laviolette, Kakko remains a bottom six forward. In hindsight, it was a mistake for Drury not to package him at the trade deadline for a proven scorer.

Lindgren and Schneider made $3 million and $925,000 respectively this past season and both are due for a pay raise. Drury can probably bridge Schneider the way he did with K'Andre Miller and Alexis Lafreniere. $2m x 2 should just about do it. But Lindgren will be a little trickier. He's looking at a multi-year deal in the neighborhood of $4.5 million per. Does Drury want to invest that much in a defenseman who might be the second coming of Dan Girardi? If he can keep the term down to three years, the answer might be yes.

When it comes to the UFAs, it's fair to say that Jack Roslovic, Alex Wennberg, Blake Wheeler, and Erik Gustafsson have all played their last game as a Ranger. The former two were rentals and Drury is not known for re-signing rentals; the latter two were signed last summer to one year deals and have outlived their usefulness. With Brennan Othmann in Hartford, Zac Jones, Matt Rempe and Jonny Brodzinski on the bench, and a - hopefully - healthy Filip Chytil, the Rangers should have plenty of options to fill out their bottom six without going outside the organization.

But the real question for Drury concerns the core of this team. This is now the third year in a row that is has failed to deliver in the clutch. Mika Zibanejad and Chris Kreider were held to two points a piece against the Panthers. Artemi Panarin had a goal and three assists, while Adam Fox had four assists. As for Jacob Trouba, he was on the ice for more than half the Panthers goals. The cap hit for all five of these players comes out to just over $44 million, or roughly 50 percent of next year's salary cap. Only the Maple Leafs (61.6%) have more salary tied up in their top five players.

We now know that Fox re-injured his knee on that collision with Nick Jensen in game four of the Capitals series. That would explain why he was, apart from a couple of games, a non-factor in the second and third rounds. We'll never know how the Rangers power play would've performed if Fox had been 100 percent. However, the fact that it went 2-25 over the team's last 10 playoff games cannot be a coincidence. 

But while Fox may get a mulligan, the other four have no excuse. Zibanejad, in particular, had a very disappointing season, especially at 5v5, where he was one of the worst centers in the league. Panarin had a career high 49 goals during the regular season, but only one over the Rangers last nine playoff games. After recording a hat trick in the series clincher against the Hurricanes, Kreider had just one goal - a shorthander - in six games against the Panthers. And Trouba's performance was so bad, Laviolette was forced to demote him to the third pairing with Gustafsson.

Does Drury really want to run it back next season with this core? A better question might be what choice does he have? Zibanejad and Panarin both have NMC (no-move clause) contracts, meaning they would have to approve any trade. Kreider and Trouba have 15 team NTC (no-trade clause) contracts. The problem with NTCs is that the teams that have the cap space to take on a large contract are typically the ones on the no-trade list, while the teams that aren't on the no-trade list rarely have the cap space to take on said contract.

In other words, barring a miracle, any speculation involving a trade for Brady Trachuk is just that: speculation. With the Rangers having just over $11 million in available cap space and only 18 players signed next season, Drury is going to have to do pretty much what he did last summer: shop at the bargain basement. store. And after the postseason he had, it's unlikely that Barclay Goodrow will be bought out. If anything, the Rangers need more players like him, not fewer. Jake DeBrusk could be just what the doctor ordered, if Drury if he can shed some salary.

Look, I realize things may seem bleak right now. But here's something that should cheer you up. Among the playoff teams in the Eastern Conference that were eliminated, the Rangers are actually best positioned to make a deep run next year. I'm not joking. The Bruins need, not one, but two centers; the Maple Leafs, despite all that top-tier talent, still can't get out of the first round; the Lightning are finally paying the price for manipulating the salary cap all those years; and the Hurricanes will likely lose several key pieces of their team to free agency, plus their goaltending is suspect. Even the Panthers will have to make some tough choices over the summer.

Bottom line: the glass is half full, Rangers fans. Enjoy the summer.