Down In Front: The musings of a sports fanatic
Thursday, July 3, 2025
Leon Gets His Man
Wednesday, July 2, 2025
Drury Silences the Critics, for Now
Monday, June 30, 2025
Mets in a Free Fall
Tuesday, June 24, 2025
Exploring Drury's Options After Sending His 2025 Pick to Pittsburgh
Earlier today, the New York Rangers announced that they were sending their 2025 first round draft pick - 12th overall - to the Pittsburgh Penguins and retaining their 2026 first rounder. The move completes the trade in which the Rangers acquired J.T. Miller from the Vancouver Canucks back in February for a top-13 protected number one. The Rangers had until 48 hours before the Draft to decided which pick they were keeping. The reason it's going to Pittsburgh and not Vancouver is because the Canucks traded it to the Pens in the Marcus Pettersson deal.
So what does this mean?
For starters, I don't think it means that Chris Drury believes next year's pick will be higher, e.g., better. For his sake, it better not be. Indeed, the prevailing sentiment around the NHL is that this team, even with all its flaws, is much better than what it showed last season. That doesn't mean the Rangers will win the Presidents' Trophy, but it does mean they should make the playoffs. Why else would Drury hire Mike Sullivan to coach the team if he didn't feel that way?
That's why this move was so vital. Holding onto next year's first round pick provides Drury with five possible options.
One: An Offer Sheet. For almost a month now the scuttlebutt around the league has had the Rangers signing J.J. Peterka of the Buffalo Sabres to an offer sheet. There was just one hitch. If they kept their '25 first rounder, the Rangers wouldn't have one to send to Buffalo in the event the Sabres couldn't match the offer. An offer sheet with an AAV of $7.02 million per would require a first and third round pick as compensation. Here's the thing, though: based on the CBA, even if Drury front loaded the offer sheet with signing bonuses in each year, the highest salary he can pay Peterka in year one is $8.775m: $8m signing bonus and $775k base. Difficult, but hardly insurmountable for Buffalo. But in the end, why would the Sabres bother matching an offer for a player who has made it clear he doesn't want to be there?
Two: Leverage. Drury doesn't actually have to sign Peterka to an offer sheet; he can just threaten to do so. Indeed, if he plays his cards right, he might be able to negotiate a deal with his counterpart Kevyn Adams in which he keeps his first rounder and gives up, say, Gabe Perrault, Brennan Othmann and a third round pick for Peterka or Alexis Lafreniere and Braden Schneider for Peterka and Bowen Byram. Drury would then have to sign both players to long-term deals.
Three: Trade deadline acquisition. If the Rangers have the kind of season Drury expects them to have, he can use that pick to land a player at the deadline that can hopefully put them over the top. And with the salary cap going up to $104 million in the 2026-27 season and $113.5 million the following season, he could acquire a player with term without worrying about going over the cap, something he couldn't do in past years.
Four: Keep it. There's no law that says you have to trade your pick. If the Rangers unexpectedly shit the bed again this coming season, that first round pick will come in handy along with all the other picks the Rangers will accumulate by being sellers at the deadline. But, I stress, this is unlikely.
Five: Trade a player on the roster for another player or pick in this year's draft. K'Andre Miller's name has been mentioned as a possible trade chip to acquire a forward or perhaps a draft pick in the upcoming draft. As I mentioned in an earlier piece, the defenseman has regressed over the last couple of seasons and remains an enigma. Perhaps a change of scenery would be best for both parties.
The drama continues.
We'll know soon enough what Drury's intentions are.
Saturday, June 21, 2025
Panthers Provide a Blueprint for the NHL
Sam Bennett won the Conn Smythe trophy for most valuable player in the NHL playoffs. It was well earned. Bennett led the Florida Panthers with 15 goals and 22 points in 23 postseason games. He was by far the most consistent player for his team, and whether he stays in South Florida or goes elsewhere this summer, he will be richly and justly rewarded with his next contract.
But the one trophy that has yet to be awarded is the Jim Gregory award for top executive of the year. If anyone other than Bill Zito wins it, there oughta be an investigation. The job he has done transforming the Panthers from a middling team into a dynasty should be a blueprint for every general manager in the league, including a certain individual currently employed at 4 Penn Plaza.
Since he was hired in 2020, Zito has signed or traded for Sam Bennett (C) and Matthew Tkachuk (LW) from the Calgary Flames, Sam Reinhart (RW) from the Buffalo Sabres, Carter Verhaeghe (LW) from the Tampa Bay Lightning, Evan Rodrigues (LW) from the Colorado Avalanche, Niko Mikkola (D) from the New York Rangers, Gustav Forsling (D) and Seth Jones (D) from the Chicago Blackhawks, Eetu Luostarinen (LW) from the Carolina Hurricanes, Brad Marchand (RW) and Jesper Boqvist (C) from the Boston Bruins, Tomas Nosek (C) from the New Jersey Devils, and Nate Schmidt (D) and Paul Maurice (coach) from the Winnipeg Jets. In short, more than half of the Stanley Cup winning team came from elsewhere.
In a sport that defines success by how many home-grown players a team has, the Panthers are a text-book example of how to shop wisely. No organization does it better. Just look at their top nine:
Verhaeghe - Alesander Barkov - Reinhart
Rodrigues - Bennett - Tkachuk
Luostarinen - Anton Lundell - Marchand
Only Barkov and Lundell were drafted by the Panthers. That's it. Everyone else came from outside the organization.
Zito is not the first GM to build a championship team mostly through trades. In the 1990s, Neil Smith broke a 54 year Cup drought by importing Adam Graves, Jeff Beukaboom, Mark Messier, Esa Tikkanen, Kevin Lowe, Steve Larmer, Stephan Matteau, Brian Noonan, Craig MacTavish, Glenn Anderson, Doug Lidster and Glenn Healy. What is remarkable is that he's managed to do it in the cap era where general managers routinely pull their hair out trying to field a competitive roster and still stay cap compliant.
His secret sauce has been the way he's managed the cap. Like Julien BriseBois of the Tampa Bay Lightning before him, Zito has not signed one player to a contract with an AAV higher than $10 million. What this means is that he has the cap space needed to fill out his roster with solid bottom six players while some teams struggle to assemble a top six.
For example, the Panthers cap hit for Barkov, Tkachuk, Reinhart, Verhaeghe and Bobrovsky comes to $45.1 million. The Edmonton Oilers cap hit for just Leon Draisaitl and Connor McDavid is $26.5 million. There's no doubt that both these players are among the best in the NHL, but you have to ask yourself whether any hockey team can win a Stanley Cup with so much salary tied up in two players. And keep in mind, McDavid will be a UFA after the 2025-26 season. His next contract could well have an AAV of $17 million or higher. Even with the salary cap expected to go up to $104m in 2026 and $113m in 2027, the Oilers might be better off borrowing a page from the Panthers playbook and moving on.
Indeed, five of the last six Stanley Cup winners - the Lightning twice, the Vegas Golden Knights once and the Panthers twice - do not have a single player with an AAV over $10 million. Meanwhile, the team with the most front-loaded roster in the league - the Toronto Maple Leafs - have made it to the second round twice in the last eight seasons. That cannot be a coincidence.
What it tells us is that having the best player in a series is no guarantee of success. Indeed, it's almost a curse. If I were the GM of a team with Cup aspirations, I would emulate what Zito and BriseBois have done with their respective teams. Both have stumbled on to something; something that most fans don't understand. You don't need world-class talent to win in today's NHL. What you need is depth and solid goaltending. The Oilers had neither in these finals, and it showed.
Call me "delusional," or any name you want, but I don't think the hockey fans in South Florida care in the slightest that number 97 doesn't play for their team. They have two Cups, and the last time I checked, that's two more than the Oilers have won in this century.
Come to think of it, it's one more than the Rangers have won since World War II.
Ouch!
Friday, June 20, 2025
Mendoza's Moment of Truth
The New York Mets were swept by the Atlanta Braves Thursday night. There's nothing unique about that statement. Three years ago, they went into Atlanta needing just one win to secure the tie-breaker for first place in the National League East. Instead they lost all three games. There's something about playing in this city that brings out the Marv Throneberry in the Amazins.
But the Mets did more than just get swept the Braves; they got swept by the Braves after getting swept by the Tampa Bay Rays. 0-6 after a 16-4 stretch, which saw them build a five and a half game lead over the Philadelphia Phillies. They are now tied for first with three games in Philadelphia. Don't be surprised if by Sunday night they're three games behind the Phillies. Remember when I said they'd be lucky to go 6-4 over this ten-game stretch? Well, 2-8 is looking more like a possibility.
Let's call it what it is: a slump, and a pretty bad one. In the six straight games the Mets have lost, four have not been remotely close. But the two that were close, were given away by the manager, who has chosen a particularly bad time of the year to make some rather bizarre decisions.
Game one against the Rays: The Mets were ahead 5-1 going into the top of the sixth. Carlos Mendoza decided to pull Clay Holmes after throwing only 79 pitches, even though he was sailing along. The explanation was that the Mets were concerned about stretching Holmes too much given that this was his first year as a starter. Fair enough; you want him fresh for the stretch drive and playoffs. Totally understandable. Then why did Mendoza let him throw 104 pitches against the Braves five days later when it was painfully obvious he was struggling? What happened to managing his pitch count?
Game one against the Braves: The Mets were ahead 4-1 going into the bottom of the eight. David Peterson, fresh off a complete-game shutout against the Washington Nationals, was in complete command. Mendoza decided to leave him in, but for some reason didn't have anyone warming up in the bullpen just in case he got into trouble, which is what happened. Peterson walked the first batter he faced, at which point Reed Garrett started throwing in the bullpen. The next batter singled. The Braves had runners on first and second with no one out. Mendoza then went to Garrett who clearly was not yet ready to pitch. Atlanta ended up tying the game in that inning.
Same game against the Braves: Bottom of the 10th, tied score, free runner on second. Acuna is intentionally walked. On a wild pitch, for some reason Francisco Alvarez decided to throw behind the runner, thus allowing the eventual winning run to move to third base where he scored on a sacrifice fly. After the game, Mendoza, rather than just admit his catcher made a mistake, attempted to rationalize it. That is a no-no. A manager who cannot hold his players accountable is doing them a disservice. You don't have to throw your player under the bus to acknowledge what everyone who watched the game saw.
Look, last year Mendoza did a remarkable job not overreacting when the Mets got off to a horrific start. Indeed, you could say his calm demeanor gave the team the space it needed to turn the season around. And to be honest, no one ever accused him of being Joe McCarthy.
But Mendoza exhibits all the tell-tell signs of a manager who can't quite come to terms with the fact that he is no longer a coach but the field boss. Case in point, how he's handled the bullpen. Even last season when everything seemed to be going the Mets way, Mendoza would leave his starters in a little too long or pull them a little too soon. And his choice of reliever would sometimes be a head scratcher, like bringing in Adam Ottavino with a runner on first base. If you've ever watched Ottavino attempt to hold a runner on first, it's like watching a Three Stooges short if all three stooges were named Shemp. In the aforementioned game against the Rays, Mendoza, rather than bring in one of his best set-up men, opted for Paul Blackburn.
Okay, it's a long season, I get it. Managers, like players, have their share of bad games. But these are not isolated incidents; there's clearly a pattern here, or a lack thereof. Mendoza is not a bad manager, but his inconsistencies have been glaring. Alarm bells should be going off in the Mets front office. I don't care how long the season is, you can't give away games, especially in a division with two perennial 90 plus win teams like the Phillies and Braves. The Mets were very lucky to squeak into the postseason last year; there's no guarantee that, even with the addition of Juan Soto, they will make it back this year.
By no means is Carlos Mendoza the main culprit here. The Mets bats have gone cold and their pitching has gone south. No manager can overcome that kind of a slump. But he does have an obligation to put his team in the best possible position to win. To paraphrase an old saying, even if you can't get the horse to drink, you still have to lead him to the water.
As I wrote in my last piece, David Stearns will have to address the holes in this roster. But while he's doing that, it would behoove him to give his manager a pep talk before it gets too late.